Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 031930 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 330 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SCT CONVECTION SHUD CONT BUT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST THRU 00Z AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT PLACING FA IN BTWN TWO FRNTL BNDRYS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DSPT THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING AND MSTR REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FA WITH THE BNDRY ACROSS NC AND NORTH OF THE FA ALONG THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AND A BIT WRMR THAN PAST FEW NITES. LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS. ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS. HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT. BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH. DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW... REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W. HIGHS M80S-L90S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR- LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN EXPECTED THRU FRI. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAS

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