Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030548 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 148 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG. ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE U80S-L90S. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN) DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO L80S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12 XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG. XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT CU FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS

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