Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130022 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 722 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will push offshore tonight. Expect markedly colder air across the region then through Wednesday, with temperatures moderating for late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Latest sfc analysis shows ~996 mb low pressure centered over NY state with an attendant cold front stretching south through the middle of the fa. The front pushes offshore with WNW winds gusting up to 20-30 mph post frontal this evening. Despite decent forcing, low-level moisture is lacking and thus have limited any chance for pcpn (mainly plain rain) to eastern areas where 20-30% PoPs are carried. Any amounts will be very light. Dry thereafter tonight and cold with lows in the upr teens to low 20s most areas. This combined with continued gusty winds will lead to wind chill values in the upr single digits to teens...lowest over northern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry on Wed as weak sfc high pres slides south of the area. Expect wind chill values in the 20s even during the middle of the day with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph and high temps only in the mid 30s most spots...15-20 degrees below normal. Next chance of pcpn arrives Wed night with an approaching clipper system. Have maintained a 20% of rain/snow showers over the Lwr Eastern Shore, with most pcpn over the fa being just sprinkles/flurries. Dry then for Thu with temps moderating...highs mainly in the mid/upr 40s under a partly cloudy sky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next clipper system approaches the region from the WNW Friday, moving across the region Friday afternoon and night. This system is expected to be moisture starved, but will bring a slight chance of rain/snow showers to primarily northern portions of the area. At this time it appears that any snow accumulations will be minor/limited. Any rain/snow showers come to an end by Saturday morning. High pressure builds back into the region for Saturday and Sunday leading to dry conditions and a warming trend with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 40s on Saturday and into the 50s on Sunday. Another system approaches the region during the day on Sunday bringing another chance of rain Sunday into Monday. Temperatures continue to moderate into early next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Monday and Tuesday and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front is currently crossing the area with west winds gusting in its wake tonight and tomorrow...up to 25-30 kt. A brief period of rain/snow showers cannot be ruled out with the frontal passage. Some of the snow showers may be heavy and briefly restrict visibilities. Also cannot rule out areas of MVFR cigs with the frontal passage. Conditions improve behind the front but winds remain gusty through Wednesday. Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to then prevail for much of the week ahead.
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&& .MARINE... Gale warnings remain in place through Wed afternoon due to the forecasted period of elevated winds behind todays arctic cold front. Expect gusts btwn 35-40 kts. Kept the local rivers (except the lwr James) in strong SCA with gusts capped at 30 kts. Seas 5-7 ft, with 4-5 ft waves. Expect the gales to be replaced with SCA`s Wed night through Thurs morning as the gradient relaxes a bit ahead of the next weak wave approaching from the west. Latest data showing sub-SCA conditions from Thurs afternoon through Sat. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Potential exists for some low water issues during Thurs tide cycles given the gusty NW winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634-638-650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/MAS MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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