Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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113 FXUS61 KAKQ 100855 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 355 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~995 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. ALOFT...RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL VA...AND WILL PUSH OFF TO THE ENE TO THE ERN SHORE BY SUNRISE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACRS CENTRAL/ERN VA AND THE ERN SHORE. IN GENERAL THESE HAVE BEEN LIGHT...BUT VSBY JUST DROPPED TO 1/2SM AT KRIC SO SOME BRIEF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PUT DOWN A DUSTING OF SNOW IN PLACES AS TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY CLIP THE PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 2 HRS AS WELL BUT SHOULD END BY 6 AM ACRS MOST AREAS. THEY MAY TEND TO PERSIST A FEW HRS LONGER FROM THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS NEAR THE BAY AND POINTS EAST. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ON THE ERN SHORE...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. CHILLY NW FLOW WILL BRING HIGHS FROM AROUND 40 F ACRS THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH (AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS MAV NUMBERS SEEM A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM). TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS PWATS WILL BE AOB 0.10 INCHES...BUT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE SO WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS THERE (SHOULD BE TOO DRY ELSEWHERE AS DEW PTS WILL BE VERY LOW). COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS PIEDMONT WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY/COLD THURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE...USHERING IN AN EVEN COLDER AND DRIER ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S...OR -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE GULF STATES. ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 40-50% ACRS NE NC AND 20-30% ACRS FAR SOUTHERN/SE VA GIVEN TRENDS IN GFS/NAM. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION ACRS NE NC BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK REMAINS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...ARCTIC AIRMASS IS USHERED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A FEW SNOW SHOWER SAT MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SN/-RASN ACROSS NE NC. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT WITH 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 10C THROUGH THE DAY. THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST...CENTERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 30S. COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEEN SUN MORNING(LOWS OVER 20F BELOW NORMAL). EXPECT HIGHS IN MID/UPR 20S ON SUN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS SUN NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE U.S. THAT WILL MOVE NE LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A MULTI-PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT WITH AN ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A MIX ON TUES. PRECIP PROGGED TO MOVE NE OFF THE COAST BY TUE NIGHT && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG...WITH BKN OR OVC SC (3000-6000 FT) AT SBY ESPLY. ALSO...LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE (SW-) AT SBY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. SCT TO BKN SC AND AC LIKELY AT PHF...ORF...AND ECG THRU THIS PERIOD. W WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE ACRS THE REGION TODAY INTO TNGT. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO FRI MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. SHRTWV ENERGY IN WNW FLO ALOFT COUPLED WITH WEAK LO PRES MOVNG ACRS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE CST...COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES (LWR CIGS/VSBYS) FM MIDDAY FRI INTO EARLY FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SRN VA AND NE NC. && .MARINE... 7-9FT SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING TO 5-7FT OVERNIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUAL SHOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND NC/VA/MD COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AVG 25-30KT WED MORNING THROUGH THUR NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATER AND 20-25KT OVER THE BAY. EXPECT SEAS 3FT NEARSHORE UP TO 5/6FT 20NM OFF THE COAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS STRONG CAA ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW TO THE NE AND BUILDING HIGH FROM THE WEST. A PERIOD OF FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO EXIST AS TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S AND TEENS SUN MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30KT. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. THE WARNING FOR FRANKLIN WAS CANCELLED. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ISSUED ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DUE TO THE HIGH ANOMALIES. WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE CHES BAY SIDE OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...CHES BAY SIDE OF THE VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK. ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LWR CHES BAY EXCEPT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THIS ALL DUE TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ACRS THE BAY AS THE RECENT HIGH SEAS HAS PREVENTED WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN MOST AREAS THE SURGE WAS 2 FT OR GREATER. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>023. NC...NONE. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ084-086-090-093-095>097-523>525. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ075>078-085. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634- 650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG/DAP HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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