Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301939 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 339 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS OF MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS EXPECTED...A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU THE EVENING HOURS. THERE`S CERTAINLY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S...CREATING MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG/WEST OF I-95. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE WEAK (<20 KT) WHICH WILL IN TURN LIMIT THE SVR POTENTIAL OF ANY TSTM THRU THE EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 40-60% POPS N-NW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN...SLIGHT CHC (20%) POPS ACROSS THE SE. AS THE FRONT MAKES IS WAY INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS N-NW AREAS WHILE MAINTAINING 30-40% POPS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE. EXPECTING DRY WX TO RETURN TO N-NW AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 30% POPS E-SE ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE N-NW OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SE PARTS OF THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER AS WELL. HAVE 20% POPS FAR SE...CLOSEST TO THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID 80S COAST. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR DRY WX AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE A LITTLE ON SAT. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID 80S COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN MUSTER UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AS IS PASSES. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AS MODELS NOT ALL THE CONVINCED THAT IT WILL. MAINLY CLR TO PTLY CLDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. REMAINING DRY MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS. THERE`S A SMALL (20%) CHANCE OF ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE WITH A WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 80S COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON. FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHWRS/TSTRMS ALRDY FIRING UP AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT ACROSS WRN VA. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS CONVECTION E-SE NXT SVRL HRS WITH THE BEST SPRT FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM RIC-SBY. THUS...ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT BOTH THOSE SITES BTWN 20-23Z. MEANWHILE...SHWRS MOVG N FROM THE OUTER BANKS ARE NOW CROSSING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND TRACKING TOWARD ECG...SO WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE NEXT FEW HRS. TIMING CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN ORF BUT DO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO APPRCH PHF BY 00Z. ANY CONVECTION WEAKENS THEN ENDS AFTER SUNSET WITH FROPA AND A WND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DCRG CLDNS LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT CLDNS XPCTD AFTR 12Z. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE, HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SLY CHANNELING HAS RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT BISHOPS HEAD. WATER LEVELS LOOK TO APPROACH, BUT JUST FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...JUST BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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