Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181900 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper air trough across the region will keep isolated showers and thunderstorms around the area through Wednesday. High pressure gradually builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the middle and later portion of the week, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Typical summer afternoon across the area with another day of isolated afternoon diurnal thunderstorms, with the trigger mechanism being the mountains to the west and and sea/bay breeze to the east. Similar to yesterday, the storms will be very slow moving with weak flow aloft. Potential for a quick inch or two of rain under the heaviest storms, although most places will not see any rainfall. Seems like a very low risk for severe weather, although one could not rule out a pulse near severe wet microburst through early this evening. Otherwise, a quiet night with clearing as the upper trough slowly moves east. May see some patchy fog develop later tonight, but overall not a huge concerns. Lows should generally be in the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Other than the building heat through Friday, there will really not be much of any other weather concerns. As the upper trough over the area today continues to slowly move east, expect heights to gradually rise across the area through Friday with broad westerly flow developing. This will allow for increasing heat and humidity through the period. Wednesday will see temps top out in the mid 90s across most areas, then rising to near the triple digits by Friday. With the 850mb temps forecast by the GFS and the ECMWF to be around +24c Friday afternoon and 700mb heights of around dam (as well as relatively dry ground), a few locations with high temps in the triple digits does not seem terribly unreasonable. In fact, will go with temps of 100F in the RIC metro for Friday. A heat advisory seems likely on Friday, and possible on Thursday. For now, will continue to highlight the heat/humidity in the Hazardous weather outlook and various social media outlets. Certainly not unprecedented heat for this part of the country during this time of year, but it will be very hot nonetheless and potentially dangerous for those not prepared for it. Otherwise, one cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon especially along any boundary as the upper trough See no reason why we would not need a head advisory on Friday, and it is very close on Thursday.will still be close enough to perhaps help trigger storms. Beyond Wednesday, it looks just dry and hot.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Bermuda High settles over the central Atlantic the rest of this week as very persistent troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard. Mid Atlantic Region remains well ensconced in a warm sector throughout the long term forecast. Expect periods of unsettled weather with showers/storms developing each aftn/evening...especially invof lee trough axis which persists through at least Sunday. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions continue with dewpoints in the upper 60s NW to around 75F SE. Meanwhile, high temps will be in the mid-upper 90s Fri/Sat (possibly pushing 100 degrees in cntrl VA on Friday) and low-mid 90s Sunday. Lows in the 70s each night. The combination of heat and humidity will support widespread heat indices in the 100-105 range with 105-109 possible SE for Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect mainly VFR conditions at the TAF sites for the remainder of today into Wed morning, except for isolated IFR cigs in the early morning at SBY. Isolated to sctd showers or tstms are developing along the sea and bay breeze primarily near ORF and ECG. Have a few hours of VCSH at ORF and ECG though around 20z. Winds remain light and generally to to sw. some MVFR to IFR fog could develop in patches across inland areas Wed morning. OUTLOOK...Isolated to sctd pcpn possible Wed aftn/evening due to passage of upper trough. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions Thu into the weekend, as high pressure builds toward the Mid Atlc region. && .MARINE... Trough sfc-aloft to gradually weaken through Wed...then hi pres rebuilds over the waters by the end of the week. Prevailing winds will remain SSW through the period...mainly aob 15 kt...though some increase in speeds late each day into the overnight hours. Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG/JAO MARINE...ALB

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