Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 232236
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
536 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
Low pressure lifts northeast just off the northern Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England coasts tonight through Tuesday. The low
then moves away from the New England coast Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as high pressure builds into the area. A cold front
crosses the region Thursday morning.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest GOES water vapor imagery centers anomalous upper level
low pressure over central North Carolina. Plume of moisture
visible just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, spreading
northward into the Northeast. At the surface, ~990mb low
pressure has organized over eastern North Carolina, with the
triple point offshore. Earlier clearing across the southeast
forecast area has filled back in as low clouds have pivoted back
over the area. Brunt of the precipitation has pushed north of
the local area, with another area of convection observed across
southeast North Carolina. For the local area, light
precipitation persists from the Piedmont into central Virginia.
Light precipitation will continue to pivot across central
Virginia as the anomalous upper low lifts into the region and
the surface low deepens just offshore. Convection to the south
progged to push toward the North Carolina coast as the local
area remains stable. Have removed any mention of thunder this
evening, but due to the strength of the cold pool, cannot rule
out a few rumbles across northeast North Carolina late afternoon
into the evening.
The surface low progged to locate just offshore of the Delmarva
through late tonight as moisture pivots around the backside of
the stacked low. Have retained likely POPs across the northeast
half of the local area through late tonight. Additional rainfall
amounts through tonight will generally be less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows forecast in the upper 30`s to low 40`s inland
to mid 40`s near the coast under a cloudy sky. Northwest wind
generally 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 near the coast.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level low pressure lifts northeastward away from the Mid-
Atlantic coast Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds in from
the west. At the surface, low pressure lifts along the Northeast
coast as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
ridging northward into the Ohio Valley. Expect some lingering
light precipitation Tuesday morning across the Eastern Shore due
to energy in the northwest flow aloft and lingering moisture.
Dry elsewhere, with clearing skies through the day. Breezy, with
highs in the upper 40`s northeast to mid 50`s inland.
Upper/surface ridge axis locates over the region Tuesday night,
resulting in a clear sky and lows in the mid to upper 30`s to
low 40`s. Ridge axis slides offshore Wednesday as the next upper
trough approaches from the west. An associated cold front
progged to reach the central Appalachians late Wednesday. Return
flow will push highs into the low to mid 60`s (approaching upper
60`s inland). Clouds increase late Wednesday and Wednesday
evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Spatial and timing
differences exist, but general model consensus pushes the front
through the region early Thursday morning. A potent shortwave
accompanies the front along with a narrow band of high
precipitable waters. However, the NAM and SREF are holding out
on the moisture return so have kept POPS in the chance range
(30-40%). Front quickly pushes offshore Thursday afternoon, with
dry conditions expected area wide during the afternoon. Mild
Thursday morning with lows in the upper 40`s to low 50`s.. Highs
Thursday generally in the mid to upper 50`s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to enter the region
Wednesday night and into Thursday as a surface cold front slides
into the area. Moisture still appears somewhat limited as the front
crosses the region Thursday morning. Continuing to lean closer to a
drier solution with the highest precipitation chances confined to
far southeast portions of the area Thursday morning.
Behind the cold frontal passage Thursday morning, an upper level
trough builds into the eastern half of the US allowing for northwest
flow to dominate the forecast period. Temperatures will return to
more seasonable values by Friday and continue through Monday. Highs
will generally be in the low/mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s through this period. The positive tilt configuration of
the upper level trough will allow for high pressure to build in from
the south and suppress precipitation chances through Sunday. Models
are hinting at a reinforcing cold front passing through the region
on Monday, but it appears as though moisture will be limited with
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions prevail over the region today as
low pressure centers over North Carolina. The exception is
across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina where a
dry slot has brought some temporary VFR conditions. Winds are
generally north to northeast, gusting to 35 to 40 knots over the
Eastern Shore. Light precipitation has spread into northern
Virginia, but light rain/drizzle will persist through the day
over much of the area. Ceilings will remain IFR/MVFR inland
through the rest of the day. Low pressure emerges off the North
Carolina coast late today, slowly lifting along the Mid-
Atlantic coast through tonight. Widespread IFR ceilings are
expected this evening through the overnight period. Periods of
LIFR also expected. Mixing and cloud cover will limit fog, but
light rain/drizzle will persist along the coast.
OUTLOOK...The low moves away to the northeast during Tue with
showers gradually ending acrs ENE counties. High pressure
builds into the area for Tue evening into Wed. There will be a
chance for showers Wed night into Thu with dry conditions
expected for Thu aftn through Fri.
450 PM update...With the return of northerly winds and cooler
air temperatures...dense fog has returned to the southern Bay
and the VA/MD coastal areas. Visibility in some cases is down to
a few hundred feet. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 1
AM EST for the Bay...the coastal zones north of the VA/NC border
and the lower James River.
A broad area of low pressure will move NE along the mid-Atlantic
coast thru tonight. Gradient winds have starting to ease across the
northern coastal waters and will be able to replace the Gale Warning
with an SCA as of 4 pm. Will still have gusts to 30 kt across the
northern coastal waters thru this evening and into the overnight
hours as winds back from E to N then NW by early Tue morn. Seas of 7-
15 ft N of Parramore Island will remain elevated this evening before
gradually subsiding to 5-9 ft by daybreak Tue.
As alluded to above, the broad low moves slowly NE tonight, and will
be very slow to lift to the NE along the NJ coast Tuesday.
Meanwhile, high pressure builds in from the NW. The wind becomes N-
NW and increases to 15-25kt (gusts to ~30kt possible early Tuesday
with the strongest pressure rises) for the Bay/ocean later tonight
into Tuesday, with speeds averaging 15-20kt for the rivers/Sound,
with 25kt gusts possible. SCAs are now in effect for all waters thru
Tues aftn or Tue night. Seas will be slow to subside on Tue and may
not drop below 5 ft until early Wed.
High pressure gradually builds into the region Tuesday night and
slides offshore Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This cold front
crosses the coast later Wednesday night into early Thursday. High
pressure builds in from the W Thursday night into Friday.
-- Changed Discussion --A high surf advisory remains in effect for the Maryland beaches
thru 1 am and Accomack County VA thru 10 pm. Some minor beach
erosion is expected.
Minor tidal flooding is currently ongoing from Wachapreague to
Ocean City on the Atlantic side. Minor flooding is expected for
portions of the west side of the Chesapeake Bay this evening.
This is in response to lingering effects of the strong easterly
flow from early today.
As low pressure slowly moves NE up the coast tonight and
Tuesday, winds will become gusty from the NW late tonight into
Tuesday. This will cause the excess water on the west side of
the Bay this evening to move back east and impact areas adjacent
to the easter side of the Bay during Tuesday morning. Additional
coastal flood advisories have been issued to highlight this
-- End Changed Discussion --
-- Changed Discussion --MD...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ025.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ024-025.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ021>023.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ099.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ099-100.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for VAZ075-
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ654-656-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633.
-- End Changed Discussion --