Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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914 FXUS61 KAKQ 031125 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 725 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated afternoon showers are possible over southern portions of the area today, but otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north, with lower humidity expected. Low pressure along the southeast coast drifts north Sunday, potentially bringing showers and a few storms to the southern half of the area. Typical summertime conditions are expected next week, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms and seasonable heat and humidity.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 700 AM EDT Thursday... - Areas of fog early this morning persist across southern VA/interior NE NC. SPS remains in effect through 830 AM. The latest WX analysis indicates a strong upper low (~550 dm), centered across NW Quebec, with the axis of the upper trough extending SW into the Great Lakes/OH Valley (with yesterday`s portion offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast). At the sfc, a weak sfc trough/stalled remnant frontal boundary is in place from the southern New England coast SSW into the VA/NC piedmont. An area of mid level clouds has spread into central VA, improving VSBYs somewhat, though areas of fog (covered w/ an SPS) remain through 8-9 AM over south central VA and interior SE VA/NE NC. Otherwise, temperatures early this morning are primarily in the lower 70s, with a few upper 60s W of I-95, and mid 70s near the coast in SE VA. For today, the upper low drops SE across Quebec, and moves into northern New England tonight. The weak boundary in place over the local area is expected to drift east and weaken offshore of the local area later this morning. Meanwhile, a stronger cold front out ahead of the upper trough drops SE through the eastern Great Lakes and pushes into the northern mid-Atlantic region late this aftn and evening. Will note that PWAT values have dropped considerably compared to the past several days, currently being analyzed at ~1.20" over NW sections of the FA, and ~1.80" in the far SE (compared to >2.00"). Therefore, expect mainly dry conditions later today despite the approach of another cold front from the NNW, and the southern flank of a shortwave passing by this aftn. The NBM keeps the entire area rain-free today, but most of the CAMs show spotty aftn shower activity along and S of I-64 this aftn. Have expanded the slight chc PoPs up into south-central and interior SE VA (maintaining it in NE NC) for this possibility (kept it S of RIC due to the expectation of lowering dew pts but would not be surprised to see a brief shower there as well). Highs today will mostly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with dew pts dropping into the mid- upper 60s N, while remaining in the lower 70s SE. Any showers/tstms this aftn should rapidly dissipate towards sunset, with a mostly clear sky tonight as sfc high pressure builds SSE from the Great Lakes into the local area. Lows tonight avg in the mid to upper 60s inland, with lower 70s along the SE coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry, warm, and noticeably less humid for the Fourth of July holiday into the first part of the weekend. A pleasant and dry, but still warm, Fourth of July holiday looks to be in store as an upper low moves off the northern New England coast, allowing high pressure to settle in from the N. Highs temperatures range from the mid/upper 80s to around 90 F, with sunny to mostly sunny skies and light onshore flow. Dew points range through the 60s (potentially down into the upper 50s at peak heating across the northern 1/2 of the CWA), so it should feel quite comfortable. Mainly clear and comfortable Friday night with lows mostly ranging through the 60s (lower 70s SE coast to lower 60s NW). On Saturday, sfc high pressure will be centered across the NE and mid-Atlantic region, with a broad upper low in place from the eastern Gulf, across Florida and off the SE US coast. While this system has a medium (50%) probability of taking on some tropical/subtropical characteristics, it will be rather difficult given weak flow aloft for this system to make its way N into the local area. Remaining dry Saturday with with highs again in the mid 80s coast to near 90F well inland with d && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - A chance of showers across southeast VA and northeast NC Sunday. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and warm. - Becoming increasingly hot and humid by next week with afternoon/evening storm chances. The models do slowly lift the SE low pressure system north on Sunday, the 03/00Z ECMWF lifting it farther north compared to the GFS later Sunday, but all guidance keeps the system weak (and the ECMWF brings it inland). The main effects will be for a gradual increase in humidity on Sunday, with chc PoPs into the southern portion of the FA. Higher humidity and seasonable WX is expected Monday- Tuesday, along with chances of diurnal showers/tstms well in advance of another cold front moving into the Great Lakes. The aforementioned low or trough axis lingers offshore into early next week before moving off to our NE midweek. Daily high temperatures also warm back into the lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 700 AM EDT Thursday... Local IFR-LIFR in low stratus and fog, through ~13Z, then mainly VFR today. Winds are generally light and variable, and will become WNW at 5-10kt inland, while being light enough for onshore flow near the coast this aftn. Slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm across southern VA and NE NC, but chances/areal coverage are much too low to account for in the terminal forecasts at this time. Outlook: VFR conditions tonight through Sunday AM as drier air builds into the region behind the cold front. A few showers/tstms possible by Sunday, mainly south, and all areas Monday.
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&& .MARINE... As of 230 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions today and through the weekend. Benign conditions continue today as high pressure slides in behind a cold front. Latest obs reflect westerly winds at 5-10kt. Seas are 2- 3ft and waves are around 1ft. Once high pressure slides overhead later this morning, winds become lighter and variable. A sea breeze looks to develop this afternoon. By the evening, light winds become southwesterly. Another cold front crosses the waters early Friday morning. Winds turn to the NNW behind it and increase to 10-15kt. Cannot rule out a few gusts to 20kt Fri morning, especially in the lower Ches Bay. Winds then turn onshore Fri evening and remain onshore through the weekend. Wind speeds will typically be 5-10kt, but will likely see slight increases in the evenings. Next chance for SCAs would be Sunday evening with SE winds, but looks rather marginal so far (~15kt with gusts ~20kt). Seas will remain at 2-3ft today through the weekend. Waves will be 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/SW LONG TERM...LKB/SW AVIATION...LKB MARINE...AC