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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280633
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
233 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds over the area today...then slides off the
coast for Wednesday night through Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc hi pres will build over the region on today...providing dry
wx and very comfortable conditions under a sunny or mostly
sunny sky. Highs in the l-m80s...except m-u70s at the beaches.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The high will slide out to sea later tonight thru Fri. Dry
wx will prevail. SSW flow will start to increase on Thu
resulting in a warmer and more humid airmass. Clear or mostly
clear tonight with lows 55 to 60F inland...60 to 65F at the
coast. Partly to mostly sunny on Thu with highs in the m80s to
around 90F...l80s at the beaches.

That SSW flow will bring increasing dewpts/low level moisture
into the region for Thu night and Fri. Enough of that moisture
combined with heating and very weak lift could trigger ISOLD
SHRAs/tstms over far srn/sw counties Fri evening. Lows Thu
night in the m60s to around 70F. Highs on Fri in the 80s-
l90s...l80s at the beaches.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term period will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern
with a weakening cold front approaching from the W/NW on Sat with a
lee sfc trough out ahead of the front. Still capping PoPs at 20-40%
in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more
significant forcing stays NW closer to the front. Lows mainly 70-75
F with highs Sat primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday
will see the front wash out across the local area, will maintain 20-
30% PoPs (except 30 to 40% over northeast NC). Highs in the upper
80/around 90 F. May even be able to lower PoPs a little more across
the N with later model runs but wanted to keep some continuity given
the weak front and a lot of uncertainty as to how much it actually
weakens. Mon/Tue will see the local area generally in light flow and
minimal forcing. It will be very warm and humid with enough
aftn/early evening instability along a lee trough for ~20% PoPs most
areas. Highs 90-95 F inland and mid-upper 80s/lower 90s near the
coast. Lows generally 70-75 F.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc hi pres builds over the region today...then shifts slowly
off the coast Thu-Fri. VFR conditions w/ mainly light winds (aob
10 kt) into Thu...some increase in speeds but remaining mainly
aob 15 kt Thu afternoon into Fri as winds become SSW. The next
chance for SHRAs/tstms will be late Fri-Sat.-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Winds are now less than 10 kt across the marine area and outside of
convection winds this evening will be rather light. A weak frontal
boundary pushes through the waters later tonight, with pressure
rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure builds into the area from the
NW. This will allow for a brief surge of higher N winds to around 15
kt with gusts near 20 kt, mainly from 09-12Z/Wed morning. Still
looks too marginal/short-lived to have any headlines but waves will
increase a bit as well to 2-3 ft in the Ocean and lower Bay Wed
morning. As the sfc high builds overhead by aftn, expect much
lighter onshore flow to develop at 5-10 kt. High pressure slides
well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in
increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas
possibly building to 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more
like 2-4 ft for southern coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be
needed late Thu/Thu night, but they will be marginal events. A slow
moving cold a front approaches from the NW Sat but weakens by the
time it reaches the local area on Sunday. Thus, outside of any tstms
conditions will be sub-SCA with winds only 10-15 kt or less.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...JDM

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office