Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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913 FXUS61 KAKQ 272346 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 746 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the northeast on Thursday as the next system approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Latest analysis indicating main area of sfc low pressure centered over the lower OH Valley, with a weak sfc trough noted to the lee of the Appalachians near CHO. Some weak ridging aloft has generally limited showers/tstms east of the Mtns so far, while coverage of showers and storms is much greater across TN/KY/WV. Other than a few remaining spotty light showers/sprinkles exiting the coast, conditions look to stay mainly dry through late aftn. With the weak sfc trough progged to shift ENE through northern VA this evening, and some minimal ML Capes around 500 J/Kg may see a few isolated showers/tstms move across interior portions of the CWA so will maintain ~20% PoPs through 9 pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy and warm with temperatures mainly holding in the 70s and slowly falling into the 60s by late evening. Upper level ridging begins to break down later tonight...as the mid/upper level trough currently centered over southeast MO/southern IL pushes east overnight. After a period of mainly dry conditions, PoPs will ramp back up after 04-06Z as the front approaches from the W and mid-upper level heights fall along with some increase in mid level lapse rates between 06-12Z. Low level instability will be very low, but think there is enough instability aloft to mention a slight chance for tstms over roughly the western 1/2 of the CWA after 08Z. Will carry ~40% chc PoPs west of I-95 to 20% to 30% or less farther east and southeast. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. With the moist boundary layer, GFS is indicating a fair amount of fog, but given a SSW wind of 5-10 mph and warm temperatures, think this is overdone and that areas of low clouds are more likely. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level trough pushes into the area Tue, with a model consensus pushing the main shortwave energy across southern VA/and eastern NC from 18-00z. Have raised PoPs to likely (60%) in the aftn over portions of far southern VA and northeast NC where deepest lift and moisture look to coincide during peak heating hours. Maintained mainly high chance PoPs (50%) elsewhere (except for a small area of likely PoPs across the NW. Continued warm w/ highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s (could be around 80 F if enough sunshine develops). There will be some potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional shear increases and sfc dew pts will be around 60F. Overall not looking like widespread severe wx as there is still some question as to how much storm organization there will be as latest models are hinting at a lot of clouds and an earlier arrival of precip by late morning. SPC has area in marginal risk for severe wx and this seems about right given the current parameters depicted in the models. Overall, highest shear values look to reside over NC. Will linger the chance PoPs through the early evening W and to around midnight along the coast. Drying after midnight with lows mainly 50-55 F. Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some early clouds (especially south) as drier air moves in from the N. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65F near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland. Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by Thu, allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. With fairly low mixing and overrunning clouds, expect a cooler day with highs mainly ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kept it dry through 22Z despite the increase in clouds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Good chc for showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure returns for Sat aftn thru Sun night. Yet another system may approach fm the west late Mon. Highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s Fri, in the 60s to near 70 Sat, in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sun, and in the 60s to near 70 Mon. Lows in the 40s Thu night, in the upper 40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 40s Sat night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 Sun night. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected for all the TAF sites through midnight and into the early morning. Some patchy fog could develop for SBY/PHF/RIC during the early morning as low level moisture continues to increase from the southwest. Some early morning light rain is also possible especially for western portions of the CWA but is not expected to be widespread enough to include in the TAFs. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Tuesday, with the potential for a few storms to be severe Tuesday late afternoon and evening. Outlook: Unsettled weather conditions will continue into Tuesday night due to the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Sub- VFR conditions will be possible once again Wednesday morning due to low ceilings and the potential for fog. Dry/VFR conditions return on Wednesday as winds shift to the north. The next storm system is expected to approach the area Friday bringing the next chance of adverse aviation conditions.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Wed. Late this aftn, high pressure was well off the Mid Atlc coast while low pressure was cntrd over srn IL/extrm ern KY. The low and its associated cold front will approach fm the west tonight into Tue morning, then move acrs the area and off the coast late Tue/Tue night. SSW winds generally 10 to 15 kt will continue tonight into Tue evening, then become NW then N Tue night into Wed morning behind the front. N winds 10 to 15 kt during Wed, as high pressure starts to build in fm the N. Do not expect SCA conditions to be met thru Wed. High pressure will continue to build in fm the N Wed night into Thu morning, then slides out to sea Thu aftn into Thu night. NNE winds 15 kt or less Wed night, then NE 5 to 15 kt Thu aftn. E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming SE Thu night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJB/JEF MARINE...TMG

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