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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD
FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL
BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT
WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE
SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
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HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS TIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG. OTHERWISE...GALE WARNINGS WILL GRADUALLY END AT 7 AM IN THE
RIVERS...AND 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. THE
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED WITH SCA`S LATER THIS MORNG INTO
EARLY THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS IN AND N WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ