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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081126
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
626 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE STILL HANGING AROUND THE MD EASTERN
SHORE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND THE
FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S (MID- UPPER 50S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE).
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NNW. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT... BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NRN
NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIQUID PRECIP AMTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES SINCE THE BEST DYNAMICS/PRECIP
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE FA. A DECENT CLOUD SHIELD OVERNIGHT WILL
HELP TO INSULATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 40S (MID-UPPER 30S NORTH OF METRO RICHMOND).-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S NE TO LOWER 60S SW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SW WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BRING A
DRY AND WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STAYING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION...MOVEMENT
AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX
WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TUE...AS SW FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. LO PRES WILL THEN
RESULT IN A CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY
WX RETURNS FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S TUE MORNG...IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WED MORNG...IN
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG...AND IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
FRI MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S
WED...AND IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES CONTG TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST THROUGH THIS MRNG. WK HI
PRES BUILDS OVR THE RGN THIS AFTN/EVE. MNLY MVFR CIGS LINGERING NR
THE CST UNTIL ABT 09-10Z/08...OTRW BECOMING MNLY SKC BY DAYBREAK
AS NNW WNDS CONT TO WANE. VFR CONDS PREVAIL TDA...EARLY TNGT.
BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND LO PROB SHRAS LT TNGT/EARLY SUN W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE. BIT OF A GUSTY NW WND SUN...OTRW CLRG. VFR CONDS
CONT SUN NGT THROUGH TUE. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LO PRES MOVES WELL E OF THE WTRS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS
RESULTING IN SLOLY DIMINISHING NNW WNDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS/WAVES.
SCAS RMNG UP FOR THE BAY/RIVERS UNTIL 11Z/08...THEN TO 20Z/08 FOR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY/SND AND THROUGH 00Z/09 ON THE OCN. A PD OF MDT
LO LVL CAA (AND PTNTL SHORT PD SCAS) POST CDFNT LT TNGT/SUN
MRNG...ESP NRN WATERS. A PD OF BENIGN WX AND WNDS AOB 15 KT SUN AFTN
THRU EARLY TUE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WTRS WED AFTN INTO THU MRNG.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
