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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081147
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
647 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBS AND RADAR TRENDS. AS EXPECTED...RADAR IS BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/700-850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS MOVING IN FROM THE WSW. LYH NOW REPORTING
FZRA AT 31 F...WITH -RA AT DAN AT 35 F (DEW PT 27F). THINK DAN
WILL GO TO FZRA OVER THE NEXT 2 HRS AS COLUMN COOLING/WET BULB
EFFECTS TAKE OVER AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AKQ CWA
AFTER 13Z. LOOKING AT OBS IN OUR CWA...AT 11Z...LKU NOW 30 (DEW PT
21) WITH SLEET...RIC NOW REPORTING -RA AT 34 (DEW PT 23)...AKQ 36
(DEW PT 26). THUS THE LINE BETWEEN ANY ICE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTN WILL TEND TO OCCUR ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN RIC AND AKQ. LOWERED
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS TO THE S/E OF RIC AIRPORT DOWN TO
MINIMAL AMOUNTS (GENLY TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS). WILL KEEP
ADVISORIES IN PLACE...BUT THEY WILL BE VERY MARGINAL ACROSS THE MD
ERN SHORE (ESPECIALLY WICOMICO) AS WELL AS TO THE E/SE OF RIC AND
THEY MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY EARLY AFTN. THE WARNING APPEARS
IN GOOD SHAPE...ESPECIALLY AS FZRA APPEARS TO BE COMING IN FASTER
(WITH LESS SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL). EXPECT .25" OR MORE OF ICE ACRS
MOST OF THE WARNED AREA...WITH .40-.50" ICE POSSIBLE IN
LOUISA/FLUVANNA.


AFTER 18Z-21Z...THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS FROM
700 TO 850 MB WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH AND BULK OF ANY FROZEN
PRECIP ACRS SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL DIMINISH...WHILE REMAINING
MODERATE ACRS NRN 1/2.

BY 00Z...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
WRN PORTIONS OF FLUVANNA/LOUISA/CUMBERLAND WHERE ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR (WARNING CONTINUES). OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES
OFF THE COAST AND THE COLD AIR DAMMING FINALLY ENDS. WILL HAVE
MORE PRECIPITATION INTENSIFYING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BETTER
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS AND PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA MAY STILL BE JUST BELOW
FREEZING AT THAT TIME BUT EVEN THERE TEMPERATURES WILL GO ABOVE
FREEZING BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WITH A RIDGE HOLDING STRONG IN THE ATLC WATERS WELL OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST...THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL BECOME
POSITIVELY TILTED AND KEEP AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE
MID ATLC REGION MON/TUE. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR GENERAL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF KEY
FEATURES. BEST FORCING PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES MON
MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TO THE S AND E BY AFTN/EVENING. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF
MOISTURE PROGGED TO SPREAD PRECIP ACRS THE AREA ON TUE. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH IN N/NW ZONES TO MIX
WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTN SO HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE
FORECAST BUT BULK OF HEAVY PRECIP MAY BE DONE AT THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...THE
BNDRY SHOULD THEN PUSH WELL S OF THE AREA TUE NGT...WITH HI PRES
BLDNG INTO THE REGION FM THE W BY WED MORNG. MAX TEMPS ON MON WILL
RANGE FM THE MID 40S NW TO LWR 60S ACRS NE NC. LOWS MON NGT WILL
RANGE FM THE MID-UPPER 30S ACRS THE NRN CNTIES TO NEAR 50 ACRS NE
NC. HIGHS ON TUE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FORM AM LOWS...AND RANGE FM
NEAR 40 EXTRM NRN CNTIES TO THE LWR 50S ACRS NE NC. LOWS TUE NGT
WILL RANGE THRU THE 20S TO LWR 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY COLD AND GENERALLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE EXITING THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND A
FEW SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EAST EARLY WED MORNING BUT
HAVE NOT EXTENDED POPS INTO WED MORNING DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL BUILD IN LATE WED AND ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI. THICKNESSES
PLUMMET THU AND THU NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING IN OVERHEAD FRI.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
30S TO AROUND 40. THE VERY COLD AIRMASS LOOKS TO LOOSE ITS GRIP ON
THE AREA SOME NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH LIFTS NORTH AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE TAF PERIOD AS SFC HI PRES
STRENGTHENS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AREA OF WAA PRECIP SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNG AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. MIXED PCPN IS INDICATED FOR BOTH RIC AND SBY
WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTN. A LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION IS PSBL AT RIC. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP. N/NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN PSBL INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR/DRY WX EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES BLDG NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW STRONG N/NE FLOW TO
CONTINUE TDY OVR THE WTRS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA FOR THE LWR JAMES
RIVER AND NRN BAY UNTIL THE 12Z END TIME...THEN RE-EVALUATE IF AN
EXTENSION IS NEEDED. SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS MAY DROP BLO 5 FT AS
WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT WINDS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVR THE SRN BAY TDY WITH SEAS UP TO 6-7 FT OVR
SRN CSTL WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES PASSES THRU
THE WTRS FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE SW FOR MON LEADING
TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4
FT. A COLD FRNT PUSHES THRU THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NRLY SURGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021-
     022.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ079>083.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ063>068-070>076.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
     631-633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS