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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
705 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RE-DEVELOP OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SW US WILL TRACK
EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ERN SHORE WHERE THE SKY WILL BE
CLEAR LONGER ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE RE-ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST MIDDAY MONDAY.
LOCALLY...THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A LOW CHC FOR -SN/IP ACROSS
THE FAR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MEASURABLE GIVEN WEAK LIFT...BUT A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT FOR NOW. THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SO AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC SHOULD
SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 50S WITHOUT MUCH CHC FOR ANY PCPN.
FARTHER N...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE W LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES SRN IN/OH. HOWEVER...THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY BELOW 800MB...SO WILL ONLY HAVE CHC POPS INTO
EARLY EVENING FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY...THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD BE A MIX OF -RA/IP. MOISTURE
STEADILY INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS W OF I-95
AFTER 03Z...STEADILY INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS AFTER
09Z. THE SURFACE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE LOW TRACKING N
OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE BY 12Z MONDAY.

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
(ASIDE FROM THE FAR NW) THROUGH 15Z MONDAY...WITH A QUICK DRYING
TREND COMMENCING FROM W-E THEREAFTER. BY AFTERNOON...ONLY CHC POPS
WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH THE SKY
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER INTERIOR VA/NC. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WARM...AND CAA WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...SO HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR NW...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW PREVAILS MONDAY NIGHT...AND BACKS TO WESTERLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (AND ASSOCIATED CAA)
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH LOCATING ALONG
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID TEENS NW...TO LOW 20S SE UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND RISE
INTO THE LOW 30S NE...TO NEAR 40 S TUESDAY UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PERS DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE NGT INTO WED...RESULTING IN
MILDER WX MIDWEEK. CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NNW WED...THEN SLOLY
SETTLES S ACRS THE AREA WED NGT THROUGH THU...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
SFC LO PRES TRACKS E INVOF GULF COAST STATES. QUITE THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE 12Z/31 ECMWF AND GFS. ECMWF CONTS TO SUPPRESS MOISTURE W/
SRN LO PRES WHILE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE (AND PTNTL P-TYPE ISSUES)
INTO/ACRS THE FA (ON THU) BEFORE DEPARTING THU NGT. WILL GO W/
CONSENSUS FM HPC...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS (RA
S...MIXED RA/SN N) AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE RGN. DRY AND COLD
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...VFR FCST THROUGH 00Z WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF TO BEYOND 24
HOURS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY MONDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 03Z WHERE
SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY AT 20NM OFFSHORE. WINDS CONTINUE
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE MD COASTAL WATERS WHILE
THE BAY AND INLAND WATERS HAD WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HI PRES DRIFTS ACRS THE WATERS SUN...THEN TO THE E SUN
NGT...RESULT IN VRB WNDS BECOMING SLY. AHEAD OF SFC LO PRES
TRACKING W-E THROUGH NRN MDATLC RGN AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT...SSW
WNDS TO INCRS SUN NGT...CONT INTO MON (TO AT LEAST LO END SCA MOST
PLACES). POST CDFNT LT MON INTO TUE WILL BRING STRONG LO LVL CAA
AND EITHER STRONG SCA CONDS (SPEEDS TO 30 KT) OR LO END GALES
(GUSTS AOA 35 KT). WNDS SLO TO SUBSIDE TUE AND RMN SUB-SCA WED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA