Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301942 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 342 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW. XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA (AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY 70-75.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH. ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY. OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE...
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LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...MPR MARINE...JDM

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