Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200602 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 202 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SFC HI PRES RMNS CENTERED OVR EXTREME ERN NEW ENG. LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE...AND BKN CLDNS TRAPPED BLO INVERSION (MNLY INLAND). MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENTIRE FCST PACKAGE FOR OVRNGT HRS. MOST LO TEMPS L/M50S INLAND TO L60S RIGHT AT THE CST. ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PARKS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR SEAS. SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FOR THE NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...LSA/JAO AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...LSA/JAO HYDROLOGY...

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