Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282035 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 435 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING (MAINLY 20 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64). A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT (PER THE NAM/GFS/SREF)...KEEPING 20 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NRN NC FRIDAY AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE STALLED FRONT (STILL PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC). THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH SITS OVER CNTRL NY TO CNTRL VA FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN PIVOTS EWD ALONG THE COAST FROM NC TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE INVOF THE FRONT DUE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE WILL SET-UP BTWN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S SW TO LOW-MID 80S NE. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING GENERALLY KEEPS THE COOLER HIGHS ACROSS THE NRN NECK/MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/ACCOMACK COUNTY VA...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO... WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (STILL IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE) ALONG AND N-NE OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING MOST OF SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW ALSO DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 90/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 70 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A BERMUDA HIGH. MID-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING OVERALL PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT... BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS HIGHER POPS OF 30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM AVC-RIC-SBY AND LOWER POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS NE NC/FAR SE VA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL TEND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENLY RUN ABOUT 5 F ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS TO THE AREA FOR LABOR DAY...WILL CARRY 40% POPS THROUGHOUT...FOLLOWED BY POPS ONLY ~20% ON TUE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. TUE LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY..WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING ABOVE 90 F AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOMEWHAT HIGH POPS IS SLATED FOR TUE EVENING/TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. BY LATE WED-THU...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST DOES PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THU. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS WED-THU ACRS THE SOUTH (20-30%) WITH GENLY A DRY FORECAST ACRS THE ERN SHORE.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS NOW SHIFTED AROUND TO THE N-NW IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A SLGT CHANCE FOR AFTN TSTMS SW OF AREA TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, BUT NONE ANTICIPATED AT/AROUND TERMINALS. AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE LOW, SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MENTION FOR SCT-BKN CIGS ~ 4-5 KFT OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST AT/INVOF ECG LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE...
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CRISTOBAL NOW >500 NM ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS AVG AROUND 10 KT...WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS MODEST PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ESE FROM MICHIGAN INTO THE NE AND NRN MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL MAINTAIN SCHS HEADLINE FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH 7PM...WITH NO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. (MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY). N/NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE E/NE IN THE AFTN AND AVG 10-15 KT ACRS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO 5-10 KT FARTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL GENLY ONLY BE AROUND 3 FT...BUT WILL GENLY STILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AS ENERGY FROM CRISTOBAL IS SLOW TO DIMINISH. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME SE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS THEN BECOME S/SW SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF 20NM LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF 2-3 FT WAVES IN THE BAY SAT NIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT OR LESS AS SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUE/WED.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...LKB

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