Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242337 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 737 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail across the Mid Atlantic through Monday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria will gradually track north well off the Southeast coast. Maria is forecast to approach the Outer Banks Tuesday into Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Sfc high pressure is currently centered over the eastern Great Lakes and extends east into New England south into the southern Appalachians. Hurricane Maria is gradually pushing nwd N of the Bahamas and well of the NE coast of FL. Locally, the sky remains clear this afternoon (except for some wispy high clouds) under the influence of high pressure. The high will remain nearly stationary through tonight as Maria slowly moves nwd. The srn fringe of the high will begin to break down late tonight as Maria continues to move nwd resulting in some increasing clouds across SE VA/NE NC. Elsewhere, patchy fog is possible where the sky remains mostly clear. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Maria continues to trundle nwd Monday with the deep layer high remaining anchored N of the region. Some outer bands of the tropical cyclone will result in partly to mostly cloudy conditions along the coast, with partly to mostly sunny conditions farther inland (W of I-95). Deep layer moisture remains limited with only a slight chc PoP for coastal NE NC. A modest tightening of the pressure gradient will result in a ~15 mph NE wind across coastal SE VA/NE NC with gusts to ~25 mph. High temperatures will remain above normal ranging from the upper 70s to around 80F at the coast to the mid/upper 80s farther inland. There is decent model agreement showing Maria reaching about 175-200mi SE of Cape Hatteras by 12z Tuesday. Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of due N as the upper low drops sewd across FL. Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result in 20-40% PoPs along and E of I-95 Tuesday, with 40-50% for coastal SE VA/NE NC. QPF will be minimal for most areas. Lows will generally be in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday night, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph along the coast Tuesday, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. The latest 12z ECMWF still brings Maria about 50 miles closer to the NC Outer Banks on Wednesday compared to the 12z GFS. Will defer to NHC on the exact forecast track as of 5 pm, but indications are that a shift a bit farther to the west may be warranted. This will in turn further increase the potential for some rainfall across SE VA/NE NC (and coastal MD to a lesser degree), somewhat stronger wind gusts at the coast, higher seas, and at least minor to moderate coastal flooding. At this time, still don`t anticipate heavy rain along the coast, generally less than two inches, given Maria`s offshore track. Will have PoPs of 30-60% east of I-95 Wed, with slight chc PoPs into the Piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 40-50 mph from around Norfolk/VA Beach southward into coastal NE NC where tropical headlines may eventually be needed. The biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion along/near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the low/mid 80s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... First part of the extended, Wednesday night through Thursday, will be predicated on future track of Hurricane Maria. Have utilized Superblend for tangible weather during this period, given potential uncertainty in the track. Again, will stress that the 12z ECMWF is ~50 miles closer to the coast than the GFS and have weighted the forecast more toward its solution for the extended. This would linger Maria closer to the NC OBX through Thursday before eventually taking Maria fairly quickly northeastward away from the area on Friday in advance of an upper trof dropping southeastward from Canada. This trof and associated cold front move into the region next Saturday. Above normal temperatures continue on Thursday, with highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s Friday/Saturday in the wake of Hurricane Maria. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to around 70F, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the 50s to low 60s Friday/Saturday nights. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions across the region at 00Z with increasing high clouds from Maria moving into the Carolinas and southern Virginina. NE winds 5 to 10 kts overnight will become gusty 15-20 kt by early to mid morning. High pressure remains anchored N of the region tonight as Maria continues to track nwd. Increasing clouds late tonight across SE VA/NE NC will bring some MVFR cigs for ECG in the morning and IFR conditions by the aftn/evening. Patchy fog is possible for PHF and SBY again overnight. Outlook: Increasing moisture and some distant banding from Maria will result in a 40-50% chc of showers for ORF/ECG and 20-40% for RIC/SBY/PHF. Conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday/Wednesday night will largely be dictated by how close Maria gets to the Outer Banks. A closer approach will result in breezy to windy conditions, especially at ORF/ECG along with an increased chc of rain and degraded flight conditions. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday/Friday and pushes Maria farther offshore.
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&& .MARINE... Hurricane Maria is located about 470 miles SE of the SC/NC border as of 400 PM. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered north of the area tonight as Maria starts to take more of a northward track. NE winds average 10-15kt overnight with long period onshore swell allowing seas to average 4-5ft north/5-8ft south. Gradient winds between high pressure to the north and Maria to the south will steadily increase Mon into Mon night... reaching SCA conditions (NE 15-30kt)during this time for srn coastal waters, Currituck Sound, srn Ches Bay, and the Lower James River. Seas build ahead of Maria: Nrn waters 5-6ft Mon aftn...building to 6-8ft late Mon night. Srn waters 6-8ft Mon aftn...building to 8-10ft late Mon night. SCA headlines have been issued for Bay/Sound/Lower James for Mon/Mon night with ongoing SCA for hazardous seas for all coastal waters during this time. Latest 12Z model guidance (as well as the official NHC forecast) still keeps Maria offshore of the Carolinas Tue/Tue night and off the Mid Atlantic Coast Wed into Thu. NE winds continue to increase during this timeframe with the strongest winds expected to occur Tue night into Wed morning. Tropical storm conditions will be possible for srn Bay, Sound, and coastal waters from Chincoteague to Currituck Light with wind gusts ranging from 35-45kt (up to 50kt possible far srn coastal waters). A tropical storm watch has been issued for Currituck Sound and srn waters from the VA/NC border to Currituck Light until 12Z/800 AM Thu morning. Aforementioned areas above may be added to the watch as late as Mon aftn since impacts farther north of the watch area are not anticipated to begin until Tue evening. Elsewhere, strong/solid SCA conditions (20-30kt) will occur. Seas build as high as 15-17ft south and 11-16ft north during peak wave heights on Wed as Maria is currently expected to be centered about 175 miles E of Duck, NC. Maria should start to drift eastward Wed aftn/early evening and move away from the coast Wed night...getting pushed out to sea on Thu. Adverse N winds to diminish west to east late Wed night with wind speeds remaining SCA 20-30kt Bay/Sound/Ocean/Lower James into Thu. NNW swell behind departing Maria will keep seas elevated while being VERY slow to drop to 6-10ft north and 7-11ft south by late Thu aftn. Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Hurricane Maria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures had decreased some this afternoon averaging 1.0 ft above normal tide. Water levels remain elevated with some nuisance flooding still occuring in the Bay and rivers, however, water levels remain below minor flood thresholds. Will need to watch for additional flooding by mid week, especially later Tue and Wed (and perhaps Thu). This will depend on the exact track of Maria, but the potential for significant tidal flooding reaching moderate to even major levels exists (especially over locations adjacent to the lower Bay and southern VA/NE NC waters). High Surf Advisories likely will be needed by Tue lasting into Wednesday and Thursday. The combination of storm surge and large waves could result in significant coastal erosion and damage to dune structures mid week. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues through today, as 3-5 ft nearshore waves and 13-15 second swell persists. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ015>017-102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-638. Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ633-658. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM AVIATION...JDM/JEF MARINE...BMD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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