Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250800 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Current analysis indicating the frontal boundary now pushing south of the CWA into central NC, with a light N/NE flow prevailing. Some isolated showers remain over ne NC and will keep this in the forecast through 12Z, mainly just cloudy to mostly cloudy elsewhere with minimal chance for rain. Given the widespread cloud cover, removed fog mention from the forecast (could see some patchy fog briefly develop around sunrise acrs the north though doubt this would become an issue). Otherwise, for today, expect a slow clearing trend through the day. Bufkit soundings and the current location where the widespread stratus gives way to clear skies (over Delaware) suggest mostly sunny skies first reach into our MD and eastern shore zones later this morning, while mostly cloudy conditions prevail through at least 18Z if not 21Z over southern VA and ne NC. Will maintain a slight chc for aftn tstms over far southern VA and interior ne NC where some minimal CAPES to ~500 J/Kg persist. High temperatures today will be greatly affected by the sky cover and the N/NE flow. Have gone with highs mainly ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest along the immediate coast. Could be a scenario where temperatures remain rather cool through 18Z with the clouds (in lower-mid 70s) then rise several degrees late in the aftn as skies clear out. For tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the far south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas overnight. Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure ridges SSW from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s most areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds linger today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas has little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night. Lows in the 60s. Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after 18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr- mid 80s at the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night (latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow moisture to return to the area. Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front will push swrd thru the Carolinas during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing into tngt. OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following the passage of a cold front. && .MARINE... The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see seas of 4 feet across the northern waters. && .HYDROLOGY...
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A River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo Bluff remains in effect, with the water level now rising quickly and expected to rise above flood stage later this morning. Holding off on Richmond Westham for now, as the latest guidance has them approaching but not quite exceeding flood stage late tonight/early Sunday morning. Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the rainfall.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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