Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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216 FXUS61 KAKQ 221226 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 726 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure tracks northeast along the Carolina coast early this morning, then pushes well off the mid- Atlantic coast later today as a cold front moves offshore. High pressure builds back into the region this afternoon through Friday as low pressure lingers off the southeast coast. Another cold front crosses the area Saturday and Saturday night, with high pressure building back in from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Current analysis indicating ~1007 mb sfc low pressure centered off the NC coast, with MSAS depicting 3-hr pressure falls on the order of 6 mb over the Gulf stream. Area of showers now pushing east of I-95 and will maintain likely PoPs across SE VA and the eastern shore through 14Z, with any lingering showers look to be pushing offshore after 15Z. Column begins to dry out west to east as high pressure builds in from the WNW. Mostly sunny west by mid/late morning, becoming mostly sunny east by aftn. Lagging CAA, a mild start and aftn sunshine allows for high temps to rise into the upper 50s north to the lower- mid 60s SE. Mostly clear tonight with CAA. Lows coldest NW where mixing wanes late...lows in mid 20s there, upper 20s/lower 30s much of central VA and the MD eastern shore, and upper 30s/around 40 F far SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Good model consensus for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with ~1025 mb sfc high pressure progged to be centered over the OH/TN Valley early, then settling over the local area by aftn and through Friday as low pressure will be well south over the Gulf of Mexico. This high keeps the moisture coming off of Florida south of the CWA. Mostly clear and cool Thu/Thu night and Fri. With fairly limited/shallow mixing both days and very dry conditions (dew pts mainly in the 20s), went on the cold side of guidance both for highs Thu/Fri and for lows Thu night/Fri morning. This yields highs Thanksgiving Day mainly in the upper 40s/around 50 F (lower 50s NE NC), lows Thu night/Fri in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs Fri mainly in the mid 50s (upper 50s SE). Next upper trough moves into the Great Lakes Fri night/Sat. Still looks like bulk of moisture from the low to the south will stay over the gulf stream as it lifts NNE. Some increase in clouds fri night/Sat, but will have just a 20% PoP along Albemarle sound in NE NC, dry elsewhere. Milder Fri night with lows in the mid 30s inland to the lower-mid 40s NE NC coast. Highs Sat upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next cold front crosses the area late Sat/Sat night. Not much in the way of moisture to work with (as it stays offshore), but will carry slight chc pops NE sections of the CWA as upper level shortwave passes by Sat night. Lows in the mid 30s- lwr 40s. Dry and colder early next week as a 1025mb Canadian high slowly moves se across the region. Trends are for this high to be a little weaker and with less cold air, so have bumped temperatures up a bit from previous forecast. Highs Sun upper 40s- lwr 50s. Lows Sun night mid 20s- lwr 30s. Coldest day Mon with highs in mid 40s to around 50 F. Lows Mon night mid 20s- lwr 30s. Highs Tue in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Scattered to numerous showers east of I-95 to affect area terminals through 14Z to 15Z with MVFR and IFR conditions expected. Already VFR at KRIC and pts west. Otherwise drier air moving in from the west will result in decreasing clouds through the day with all TAF sites becoming VFR by 15-18Z. Winds shift to the NNW behind the cold frontal passage and will gust to 15-20 kt through late morning and the aftn. VFR conditions expected for the rest of the week as high pressure builds into the region from the W.
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&& .MARINE... Weak low pressure will track northeast just off the coast this morning ahead of a cold front. The cold front is expected to move offshore by 10 am. High pressure builds back into the area for Thanksgiving Day and Friday. SCAs remain in effect for all the waters except the Rappahannock River, York River, and the upper James River. S-SE winds 5-15 kt early this morning will become NW then N and increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt from late this morning into tonight. Waves will build to 3-4 ft in the Ches Bay, and seas will build to 4-7 ft. N winds will diminish late tonight into Thu morning, as cool high pressure builds into the region. Sub-SCA conditions then expected Thanksgiving Day and Fri with high pressure nearby. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and are expected to arrive Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MPR AVIATION...LKB MARINE...JDM EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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