Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190541 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1241 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slides off the coast overnight, allowing for a return of moisture. A warm front lifts through the area later Monday and Monday night. High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Current analysis places the center of sfc high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Dry/mostly clear this evening with temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 30s for the interior coastal plain and Ern Shore and low/mid 40s for the Piedmont and coastal SE VA/NE NC. Increasing clouds are expected overnight from SW to NE with a return of moisture back from the SW. Lows in the lower 30s MD eastern shore and mainly 35-40F elsewhere, mainly late this evening through the early overnight hours, with these readings rising a bit after midnight across the west. Should see some light rain arrive late tonight west of I-95. Have 30-50% PoPs Piedmont to around 20% along the I-95 corridor from 09z-12z Mon. With the sfc high well off the mid- Atlc/New England coast on Mon, overrunning moisture pushes across the local area with mainly cloudy skies and a light E/SE flow. Best forcing remains off to our NW however, so not necessarily looking at a lot of QPF. Still looks like a brief period in the morning with enough lift to support likely PoPs over much of the area. Will carry 40-70% PoPs most areas for now before 18z, then slight chc PoPs in the afternoon except up to 30-40% far Eastern VA and the lower MD Eastern Shore. Not a true CAD setup, but a lot of clouds and shallow mixing will keep it cool for much of the day, especially across the Piedmont. Late day highs will avg 50-55F W/NW to the low 60s far SE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Increasing SW flow Mon night as upper ridge axis begins to amplify/build off the SE coast. Models indicate some continued light QPF amounts Mon night, but there is little forcing for precipitation so will genly keep PoPs capped at less than 20% across the N/NE. Milder with little drop in temperatures due to the SW flow, lows ranging from the upper 40s well inland to the lower-mid 50s SE. The local area will be firmly in the warm sector on Tue, with strong upper ridge centered over the Gulf Stream off the SE coast. However, GFS/NAM continue to depict a lot of low level moisture across the area and fairly shallow mixing per Bufkit soundings through the entire day. This is probably overdone and suspect the SW low level flow and 850mb temperatures rising to +10 to +12 C will be sufficient to scour out the low level clouds by late morning and allow for a partly sunny aftn. Highs expected into the 70s except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast. Very warm Tue night into Wed with continued SW flow. Approaching sfc cold front to remain west of the Appalachians through the day which will limit chances for rain. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM do show an area of enhanced moisture pushing into the Piedmont during the late morning/aftn bu this will likely just translate into a little more cloud cover. Partly sunny overall with highs mainly ranging from the mid to upper 70s except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast. If it turns out mostly sunny with deeper mixing than anticipated, some locales could rise into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Region will overall be dominated by mid/upper level ridging during the extended period. Shortwave trof will temporarily break down the ridge Wednesday night/Thursday, allowing a cold front to drop through the region from the N/NW on Thursday. High pressure will build to the north of the region behind the front cold front, with temps dropping back closer to normal for Friday. Front potentially moves back north of the region by Saturday, allowing for another surge of warmer air to move into the region for Saturday/Saturday night. GFS/ECMWF are in some disagreement with how far the warm front gets, as well as how quickly the next cold front moves into/through the region. ECMWF less bullish in moving warm front north, which causes the Saturday/Sunday period to be more unsettled, and potentially cooler than GFS would suggest. At this point, have used the blended model solution, which sides toward a warmer day 6/7 period. Outside of the model inconsistency in the day 6/7 period, the chances for rain appear most likely on Thursday with cold frontal passage, and possible Friday into friday night, as front tries to lift back northward. Temperature-wise, another warm day on Thursday ahead of the cold front, with high temps in the 60s/low 70s. Cooler Friday with highs in the 50s to around 60, then potentially warmer on Saturday, with most areas in the 60s. If ECMWF is correct, warmer temps will be restricted to the southern half or so of the CWA. Sunday also remains uncertain with regard to temperatures, but they should still be above normal. Overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 Thursday and Friday night, then in the 50s Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected early this morning as clouds begin to return and thicken. Deteriorating conditions begin from about 09-12Z SW of KRIC, then persisting through the day as lowering/thickening CIGS return from the SW with a decent chance for rain from 12-18Z at area terminals. Sfc winds will be mostly light SE-S through Monday night less than 10 kt. Outlook...Low stratus/IFR/LIFR expected into Mon night and Tue morning (could also be some fog). Expect VFR/warm SSW flow to prevail Tue after the early am clouds scour out. A cold front approaches from the NW on Wednesday but expect VFR conditions to prevail.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure building across the region from the west will allow winds to drop off through tonight, while veering from NNE to SE then South by midday Monday, as high moves offshore. Warm front will lift north of the region on Monday, accompanied by showers during the morning. South to SSW flow persists into midweek, with waves generally 1-2 feet on the Bay, and 2-3 feet on the ocean. South to SSW wind flow will bring considerably warmer air into the region. With winds remaining below SCA criteria, will need to monitor for marine fog, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday, as dew points increase into the 50s. Cold front drops through the region on Thursday, turning winds to the N/NE, but speeds expected to remain below SCA criteria. && .CLIMATE... Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20 and Wed 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Tue 2/20 Wed 2/21 * RIC: 77 (1930) 75 (1930) * ORF: 77 (1991) 79 (2014) * SBY: 75 (1930) 75 (1943) * ECG: 78 (1991) 77 (2014) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MAM/WRS CLIMATE...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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