Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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968 FXUS61 KAKQ 280658 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 258 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the area through Thursday. This boundary will lift north to around the Mason Dixon line on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Convection has diminished late this evening, with only scattered showers remaining over the southeast portion of the local area. An isolated thunderstorm has developed over south central VA. Air mass still remains moist and quite unstable. RAP analysis indicating 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, thanks to warm temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70`s. Low level convergence along the thermal trough expected to push slightly eastward overnight as weak perturbations in the westerly flow track across northern VA. Expect enough forcing to go along with the moist/unstable air mass to keep the chance of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of the overnight period. Best chances push toward the coast by late tonight. Thanks to earlier precip, some locales over the Piedmont have already dropped into the mid 70`s. Those temps will likely remain steady through the overnight. Otherwise, mild and humid with lows generally in the mid 70`s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The weak frontal boundary begins to lift north of the area on Thursday and should be located across our northern counties Thursday afternoon. This feature in combination with a developing lee trough and a disturbance passing overhead late in the day will lead to the development of scattered aftn/eve thunderstorms, especially north. SPC has most of our area in a Slight Risk given the better shear (30kt) that develops and decent thermodynamics. Main concerns will be for large hail, localized damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. In addition...increased low level thicknesses/H85 temps across central/southern areas support a little hotter temps. This in combination with dew pts in the mid 70s will result in high heat index values again. Will have a heat advisory for most areas east/south of RIC to the Ches Bay. Highs in the low to mid 90s. By Thursday night and Friday the aforementioned weak boundary washes out near the Mason-Dixon line and we`ll wait for the next cold front to approach from the north by late Friday. A potent shortwave is also expected to cross the area late Thursday night into midday Friday and will be the focus for additional shwrs/tstms. Will have high chc to likely pops (40-60%) across northern areas through Friday afternoon with lower chances S-SE (farther removed from the best support). Cannot rule out the potential for some heavy rain given PWs in excess of 2". However, there`s too much uncertainty at this time to warrant a flash flood watch. Not as hot across the north Friday given the added cloud cover and convection. Highs Friday from the upr 80s north to the mid 90s south. May need another heat advisory south. Lows Thursday night in the 70s. The next cold front washes out across the area Saturday and may touch of additional convection. Pops were placed at (30-40%) for the afternoon. Highs from the upr 80s north to the low 90s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended period will feature more normal temps for this time of year, but there will be decent chances for showers and tstms thru Mon. A frontal boundary will slowly drop acrs the region Sat ngt into Tue morning, with the highest POPs (40-50%) Sat ngt into Mon morning. The POPs will decrease fm N to S later Mon thru Tue, with most of the area dry later Tue thru Wed, as high pressure blds in fm the NNE. Max temps will generally range fm the mid 80s to near 90, with min temps ranging fm the upr 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Showers/tstms have largely dissipated as of 06z. A stationary boundary remains situated west to east across nrn VA and ne MD early this morning. The wind is light, and generally sw, although some locations are locally variable due to lingering convective boundaries. SBY has the best potential for reduced vsby in fog (mainly shallow ground fog) early this morning, and could occasionally drop to ifr mainly from 08-12z. Otherwise, RIC/PHF could drop to 3-5sm vsby around sunrise. Dry conditions are expected through midday under sct high clouds, with scattered showers/tstms developing after 18z. The aforementioned boundary will remain in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic region through Monday resulting in a 30-50% chc of afternoon/evening showers/tstms through Monday.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tngt thru Fri. Frontal boundary laying acrs srn portions of the area late this aftn, will lift N of the region Thu morning, then drops back down acrs the area as a cold front Fri aftn thru Fri ngt. Winds will be arnd 10 kt or less thru this period, and go fm SE or S tngt into Thu ngt, then SW becoming W or NW Fri and Fri ngt. Waves 1-2 ft over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ060-065>069-079>084-087>090-092-093-095>098-513>516- 518-520-523>525. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG

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