Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060154 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 954 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST UPDATED TO BOOST POPS ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND N OF RIC WHERE SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD THIS EVENG. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SVR BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PSBL WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTING STRIKE. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTR MIDNITE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VA/NC COAST, EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN NC. ~1006 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND, WITH SFC COLD FRONT SNAKING BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NE PA/NW NJ AND THE EASTERN GRT LAKES. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SE PA INTO SRN MD AND NORTHERN VA. HAVE NOTED SOME INCREASING CU OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH BY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THE FAR N/NW LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE SHORT LIVED OWING TO FLAT/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD THEREFORE ALLOW LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL YIELD A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. BY TONIGHT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON IR SAT ACRS THE LWR GRT LAKES WILL DAMPEN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC. RESULTANT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WNW, AND WOULD ALLOW ANY LIGNERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CROSS A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE LIMITED ACTIVITY THUS FAR, AND W/ HRRR NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WILL HANG ON TO A 30-40% RAIN CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SHRAS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST, AND LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. FARTHER S-SE, EXPECT DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS JUST AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW MORNING...W/AREA OF WEAK LIFT SLIDING ESE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND WIDELY SCT AT MOST. OTHERWISE...DRY IN THE MORNING FOR MOST. EARLY SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AFTN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SOME SCT AFTN SHRAS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVR WRN AND NRN COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. FOR TEMPS, STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN EXPECTATION OF A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EARLY AND HIGHS FM 80-85 WEST OF THE BAY...TO THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. FRONT BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE TOMORROW NIGHT AND WASHES OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AND CLOSE OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA/SE GA WED AFTN/NIGHT. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD AND ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER SOUTH A 20-30% CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM, AGAIN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SW TO THE UPPER 60S/LWR 70S ERN SHORE. STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS CASTING A BIT OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z/5 GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE SFC LOW INLAND OF THE SC/NC COAST...WITH THE 12Z/NAM NOW IN CLOSE ENOUGH TO COVER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS EXTREME NE GA/COASTAL SC BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR ITS PART, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF REMAINS OFFSHORE, BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW...AND EVEN KEEPS THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A GFS WEIGHTED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR FRIDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BIT CLOSER AGREEMENT. EITEHR WAY, EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE PREDOMINATELY DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME (MAINLY) DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA (BEST CHC SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO NC). HIGHS 80-85 INLAND, COOLER U60S TO M70S ALONG THE COAST IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LO PRES SPINNING JUST OFF OR ALNG THE SE OR NC CST FRI NGT INTO MON MORNG. THEN...MODELS SHOW THE LO WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED NNE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE VA CST MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W. THAT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL HAVE 20%-30% POPS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR MUCH OF THE REGION FRI NGT THRU MON NGT...DUE TO MOISTURE/LIFT FM THE LO PRES AREA. THEN...HAVE 30%-40% POPS FOR TUE/TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BROAD AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND METRO. PRECIP IS MOVG EAST WITH A SLOW MOVG SFC TROF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NY STRETCHING WEST INTO PA AND OH. S-SW WINDS 5-15KT WILL BE PREDOMINATE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AREA OF RAIN SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ABOUT THAT. SOME PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE WEEK...PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL AROUND SUNRISE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TNGT THRU WED. MODELS STILL SHOW LO PRES SPINNING JUST OFF OR NEAR THE SE CST THU INTO SUN. EXPECT SSW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT INTO WED NGT...THEN E OR SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT THU INTO SUN. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...DAP/JEF MARINE...TMG

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