Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 271525
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
1125 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
A weak frontal boundary lifts north of the local area early
this afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west tonight
and crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High
pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Late morning analysis indicating that the sfc boundary is
washing out over the area, with some weak low level convergence
remaining over mainly far northern portions of the CWA. Still
enough mid-upper level energy keeping widely scattered light
showers ongoing over interior southeast and eastern VA, though
area obs generally showing rainfall amounts to be a trace to a
few hundredths so will continue to keep PoPs only in the 20-40%
range through early aftn. Fog has finally lifted across the
northern Piedmont areas and winds now avg around 10 kt from the
SSW most locations.
Currently mostly cloudy except for more sun near coastal
northeast NC. Area 12Z soundings show fairly abundant low level
moisture and already seeing cumulus developing in the Piedmont
where the showers have ended. Expect some sunshine this aftn,
but overall sky conditions will tend to be more BKN rather than
SCT. All zones will be in the warm sector. Aside from locally
cooler readings at the immediate coast... most areas will rise
into the mid to upper 70s. Not much forcing for widespread
precip after this initial area of showers dissipates near the
coast after 18Z, but will carry 20% PoPs for late day showers
(tstms well inland) given the decent amount of moisture and ML
Capes rising to 500-1000 J/Kg. Shear is minimal and lapse rates
are quite weak so even if some convection does develop, expect
any storms to be weak/short-lived.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging begins to break down tonight...and after a
period of mainly dry conditions, PoPs will ramp back up after
04-06Z as the front approaches from the W. Will carry ~40% chc
PoPs west of I-95 after midnight to 20% to 30% or less farther
east and southeast. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. Upper level
trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front arrives
late in the day. Continued warm w/ highs well into the 70s to
near 80F. There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn
tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs most areas. There will be
some potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as
speed and directional shear increases and sfc dew pts will be
around 60F. Overall not looking like widespread severe wx as
there is still some question as to how much storm organization
there will be as latest models are hinting at a lot of clouds
and an earlier arrival of precip by late morning. SPC has area
in marginal risk for severe wx and this seems about right given
the current parameters depicted in the models.
Will linger the chance PoPs through the early evening W and to
around midnight along the coast. Drying after midnight with
lows mainly 50-55 F. Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed as drier
air moves in from the N. Somewhat cooler but still a little
above avg with highs 60-65F near the coast and in the upper 60s
to lower 70s well inland.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds
down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for
showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat
morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front
approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure
returns for Sat aftn thru Sun.
Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid
60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu
night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions have become VFR invof SBY past couple of hours.
Narrow area of -SHRAS moving E...approaching I 95 (and RIC)
attm...and have added TEMPO -SHRA to RIC until about 14Z/27.
Expecting mainly VFR conditions for midday/afternoon hours w/
low prob for SHRAS. Unsettled wx conditions will persist across
the region into Tue night. SHRAS becoming increasingly likely
during Tue...into Tue night. Periods of reduced aviation
conditions will be possible during times of precipitation.
Dry/VFR Wed as winds shift to the N.
Low visibility in fog (<1 NM) continues to plague the northern
coastal waters and the upper Bay early this morning. Based on trends
in the latest obs will continue the Dense Fog Advisory north of
Windmill Pt thru 7 am and also for the coastal waters north of
A frontal boundary remains draped across the Delmarva early this
morning with reduced visibility in light onshore E/NE flow. South of
the boundary winds are S at 10 kt or less. The frontal boundary will
eventually get pulled back north of the Delmarva later this morning
with improving visibility across the northern waters...and winds
becoming S 5 to 15 kt all areas for the rest of today as sfc high
pressure lingers off the SE coast. Winds S to SW 10 to 15 kt
continues tonight and Tue morning. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft.
Low pressure and its associated cold front will across the local
area late Tue into early Wed morning. Winds S/SW 10-15 kt Tue aftn
will become W/NW 10-15 kt Tue night then N-NE 10-15 kt on Wed. Do
not expect SCA conditions to be met thru Wed.
High pressure will build in from the N for Wed night and Thu with
NE winds 15 kt or less, becoming E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves
1-3 ft thru the period.