Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190010 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 810 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THAT LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A COOL AFTN ACRS THE FA W/ VRB CLDS. TOUGH TO FIND EXACT COVERAGE OF LO LVL CLDNS UNDER THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING INTO THE FA FM THE SW. SFC OBS SHOWING THAT THE BULK OF THE SC RMNS RIGHT AT THE CST. FOR TNGT...CLDNS WILL CONT TO SPREAD NE FM THE ERN GULF STATES AS SFC LO PRES SLOLY TRACKS ACRS N FL. WATCHING LGT RA BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH FAR WRN/CNTRL NC SO FAR THIS AFTN...AND THAT RA WILL CONT TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVE HRS. MDLS (NAM/GFS) DIFFER ON HOW FAR NNE THE PCPN SHIELD GETS OVRNGT. 12Z/18 ECMWF LEANS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AS DOES CURRENT FCST. WILL BLEND ALL THREE FOR TNGT...IN BRINGING SLGT CHC-CHC POPS N OF THE VA-NC MNLY AFT MDNGT AND N TO ABT RIC BY LT TNGT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS AFT MDNGT FOR PORTIONS OF NE NC. LO TEMPS MNLY FM THE L/M40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL CONT W/ A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF AND CURRENT FCST FOR PCPN COVERAGE ON SAT INTO SUN AS LO PRES IS SLO TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS CST. AFT SAT MRNG...XPCG PCPN SHIELD TO GRADUALLY SINK S INTO SUN AS SFC HI PRES FM ERN CANADA BEGINS TO BUILD S. GENLY KEPT AREAS N OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT BUT W/ MSTLY CLDY CONDS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. ACRS SRN VA INTO NE NC WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHEST IN NE NC)...THOUGH TRENDING DOWN FM SAT AFTN INTO SUN. SGFNT AMT OF CLDNS XPCD TO RMN OVR MNLY SE VA/NE NC WELL INTO SUN...WHILE ELSW BECOMES P/MSNY. ONSHORE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY NR/AT THE CST. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M50S AT THE CST TO ARND 60F ACRS INTR SE VA/NE NC...AND THE M60S WELL INLAND N AND NW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS SUN FM 55 TO 60F AT THE CST TO THE M/U60S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. SRN STREAM ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUES AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST TUES EVENING. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA...A WEAKER LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT FOR AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIP WATERS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AS LOW LEVEL H85 FLOW INCREASES. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...LITTLE CAPE/LIFT IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER AND MODEST SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE TUES AFTERNOON FOR THUNDER. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN NWLY FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEDS SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S (TO NEAR 80 INLAND) THANKS TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER WEDS- THURS BEHIND THE FRONT (NW-W WINDS) WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WILL WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S EXCEPT THURS MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WITH NE/ENE FLOW OVER THE AREA...COASTAL SITES MAY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT MAY OCCUR AT KECG OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK ENE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FA THROUGH SAT WITH -RA OR SPRINKLES ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE THERE WAY NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO EFFECT TAF SITES BY 08Z SAT. KSBY LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SEE ANY PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE THE NW HELPING TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS AND ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES SAT EVENING. NE FLOW CONTINUES SAT THOUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
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&& .MARINE...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN ONGOING NELY FLOW. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED...AVERAGING 5-8 FT. HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 4 FT AND FOR THE SOUND AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 KT. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN FL TODAY...EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST SAT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD OVER SE CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS. THE SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD NWD THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...NE-E FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 4-6 FT THRU MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE FOURTH PERIOD (SUNDAY) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE SCA WINDS SPEEDS...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW TRACK. OTHERWISE...FLOW RETURNS TO THE S MON NIGHT-TUES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES AFTERNOON- EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT- WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...DAP MARINE...SAM

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