Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192003 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 303 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moves across the southeastern states through Monday, then slides offshore Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure will move northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The cold front now well offshore with high pressure centered over Texas. This high moves east providing clr skies. Winds diminish but do not completely decouple. Lows in the 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The sfc high moves across the Carolinas Mon then off the coast Mon night and Tues. Dry through this period with a warming trend as winds shift into the SSW. Highs Mon in the low to mid 50s. Lows Mon night in the 30s to near 40 se. Increasing afternoon clouds and milder Tue. Highs 60-65. A trof develops along the sern coast late Tues with a weak area of low pressure moving ne along it Tue night and Wed. Moisture from the system lifts north with the best lift progged along the coast. Expect shwrs to spread north Tue night then shift towards the coast Wed morning as the system slides offshore. Likely pops along the bay and coast...chc pops west of the Bay Tue night. Chc pops along the coast Wed morning then drying out. Qpf generally under one quarter inch. Lows Tue night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed in the 50s except near 60 across nern NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds into the area Thursday resulting in a dry but cool holiday. Lows Wed night in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Highs Thurs in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. Another area of low pressure develops off the se coast late in the week but it appears the high to the north keeps any sgnfcnt moisture south of the local area. Dry and continued cool Fri. Highs 50-55. Next cold front approaches from the NW late Sat then crosses then area early Sun. GFS wetter than ECMWF so will go with low chc pops Sat night for now. Warmer Sat ahead of it with highs 55-60. Lows Sat night in the 40s to near 50 se. Cooler behind it Sun with highs mid 40s-lwr 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions through the forecast period with only sct cu this afternoon. Main concern will be the gusty WNW winds btwn 20-30kts for the rest of today, slowly diminishing after 00Z. Outlook: High pressure moves across the sern states through Monday, then tracks off the Southeast coast on Tuesday. A trof of low pres develops along the Carolina coast Wed with sct shwrs across the sern TAF sites by mid week. && .MARINE... Forecast well on track with cold front crossing central VA as of 300 AM and then passing through the waters for a few hours around sunrise. Solid SCA conditions (SSW 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt) Bay/Sound/Rivers with low-end gale force gusts over the coastal waters. Seas 5-9ft north of VA Beach; 3-5ft south. Waves 4-5ft. Strong cold air advection, a very tight pressure gradient, and rapid pressure rises (5-9mb) behind the front will all contribute to a quick wind shift to NW 20-30kt with gusts of 25-40kt through today. Windy conditions will be common everywhere (including land areas) and generally uniform with slightly stronger winds occurring over the warmer waters. Winds should remain generally unchanged through late tonight with NW winds averaging 15-25kt/gusts 30kt (30-35kt north of Parramore Island), however seas will gradually subside overnight due to the offshore wind component. Seas 3-5ft all coastal waters tonight. Waves 4ft this evening...subsiding to 3-4ft after midnight. Marine flags remain unchanged and will expire at previously set times. High pressure builds over the Southeast States into the srn Mid Atlantic Region Mon/Mon night...sliding offshore on Tuesday. Adverse boating conditions Monday morning will subside during the day with more benign/quiet sub-SCA conditions anticipated through Tuesday night. Seas 2-4ft north/2-3ft south during this time. Waves generally 1-2ft. Models in fair agreement with developing a low off the Southeast Coast...passing east of Cape Hatteras Wednesday afternoon. Next chance for SCA conditions should be Wednesday. With high pressure passing north of the area, this may be the beginning of an active weather pattern over the waters going into next weekend. && .EQUIPMENT... The fan on the temperature sensor at the Richmond ASOS (KRIC) has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations (Hourly METAR and SPECIs). However, the 5-min high resolution data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min temperature data from KRIC until our techs can repair the sensor, likely on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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