Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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707 FXUS61 KAKQ 040544 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 144 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND TO THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NC AND EXTREME SE VA LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA. THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED INTO SE VA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN VA INTO CENTRAL NC AND NRN SC. THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE COAST THRU LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS INLAND FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (MATCHING UP WITH NAM12 300K SFC AND HI-RES GUIDANCE) AND LIKELY POPS THRU 1-2 AM FOR NE NC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH LOWS ONLY A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN CURRENT OBS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30-40% NE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A 20% CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ACROSS SE VA SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES ACROSS NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SE VA AND NE NC THRU 08Z. ONLY A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN...AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LAST FOR MOST OF TODAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING (VFR CONDS) LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CONDS RETURNING TONIGHT/EARLY THU. OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE WEEKEND IS A TOSS UP ATTM AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING ENE 10-15KT ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND NRN OCEAN ZONES. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES IN THE BAY 1-2 FT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W THEN NW ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT S...TO 3-4 FT N THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...AJZ

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