Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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292 FXUS61 KAKQ 261052 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 652 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered off the North Carolina coast through today, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday. Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will move into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Going with a blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF models for the near/short term conditions. The upper ridge will slowly bld n and ovr the Mid atlc region today and Fri, with sfc hi pres remaining cntrd off the VA/NC cst thru Fri. This will keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny sky this morning, with a bit more in the way of aftn cu as dwpts will be into the 60s (sky will avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C this aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer, in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging thru the lwr to mid 80s near the immediate cst. If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of tstm activity out of the cwa until late this aftn, so will carry a 20% POP over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to arnd 30% in the far NW (dry acrs the SE). Any convection should wane rather quickly after sunset, and will have 20% POPS acrs mainly the nrn 1/2 of the CWA thru midnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mostly clear to partly cloudy, warm and somewhat humid tngt with lows in the mid to upr 60s. Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains. So, will generally maintain ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the mid to upr 80s, and an increase in sse flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the cst with highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid 60s. For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE cst to our south. So, will keep only a minimal chc for aftn showers/tstms confined to extrm srn VA and ne NC, with a partly sunny sky south to a mostly sunny sky north. Highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas during the weekend. Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at RIC...and psbl isold tstm this eve invof RIC...VFR conds through 12z taf pd. FEW-SCT cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10 kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt. Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) * 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites: (Avg Date / Last Yr): * RIC: May 13 / May 12 * ORF: May 17 / May 12 * SBY: May 27 / Jun 1 && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday. New parts are on order. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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