Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260004 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 804 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure tracks north of the area tonight and Sunday, then slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pressure builds into the region from the north. Early evening clouds (and isolated pops across North Carolina) are expected to dissipate leading to a mstly clr night ahead. Patchy fog will be possible in areas away from the water given the cooler airmass and light onshore flow. Lows in the upr 50s - mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating. E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again. The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast. Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east. Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Sfc cdfnt conts to be slo to push off the cst Tue ngt/Wed mrng as upr lvl trough crosses the rgn. POPs lwrg only gradually W-E into Wed aftn. Sfc hi pres crosses the FA Wed ngt into Thu...then weakens. Broad upr lvl trough dominates Thu into Sat. Maintaining POPs 20-30% Wed ngt through Thu ngt...then incrsg to 30-50% POPs Fri into Sat. Highs each day in the l-m80s. Lows in the m60s-l70s Tue ngt...l60s-arnd 70F Wed ngt...then mnly 65-70F Thu ngt/Fri ngt.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the region at 18Z with clouds at 2000 to 3000 ft. The cold front has moved well into the Carolinas and clouds will gradually lift and diminish through the aftn/evening. High pressure will build into the area during the overnight. OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following the passage of a cold front. && .MARINE... WILL BE UPDATED && .HYDROLOGY... The James River at Bremo Bluff crested around 20 ft early this afternoon and is now falling. River Flood Warning continues until the stage falls below 19 ft which is expected tonight. See FLSAKQ for details. The rapid rise at Richmond Westham is well underway with the river rising almost one and a half feet per hour. Given these trends and coord with the RFC...decided to go ahead and issue a River Flood Warning for a stage expected to crest around 12.5 ft Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ for details. && .CLIMATE... June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...ALB/JAO AVIATION...JEF MARINE...JAO HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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