Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261820 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 220 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY NEXT SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 17Z...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SRN VA/NC. BKN STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE BAND. N WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHER WINDS AT ECG. THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT DURING THE EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT SBY MONDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS ARE PSBL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. && .MARINE... 1 PM UPDATE...SCA NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY OR CURRITUCK SOUND...CONTINUES MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG/LSA

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