Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310042 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 842 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... ISLTD SHWRS HAVE DSPTD SINCE SS. MODEL/BUFFER SNDGS MIXED ON WHETHER A STRATUS LAYER OR PTCHY FOG DVLPS TONIGHT DUE TO A LGT SE FLOW AND DP TMPS ARND 70. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PTCHY FOG TO AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTW... PT CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS U60S-L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID- UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN. ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15 KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...DAP/WRS MARINE...SAM

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