Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270607 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 107 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN. SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KSBY AND KECG EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TIL AROUND 13Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 12-15Z. MFVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW. OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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W-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CANCEL SCA FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS (6-9 FT NORTH AND 5-7 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...JDM/DAP MARINE...JDM/SAM

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