Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231104 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 704 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM /SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN 23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .MARINE... UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. WIND GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY. WILL HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1000 AM BUT MAY NEED TO DROP EARLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1- 2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632- 634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD

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