Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 031803 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE. ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE... HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100. PVS DSCN: M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT M70S BEACH AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE, MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING, WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S. BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA. && .MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS. 1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TMG MARINE...BMD

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