Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261952 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 352 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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KEPT CHC POPS ACROSS ERN SHORE /MIDDLE PENINSULA/NRN NECK AREAS THRU 00Z AS TROF SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT PUTTING FA IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW LEE TROF DVLPNG BY SUN MORNING. DESPITE THESE DVLPMNTS...KEPT FCST DRY AFTER 00Z AS NO REAL TRIGGERS SEEN TO INITIATE PCPN TONIGHT. MUGGY WITH LOWS U60S-L70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF STRNG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN ERLY AFTRN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTRN THEN DRIFTING IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS SCNDRY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPRCH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVR W VA. PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED. EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN. MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S. MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND. TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90. BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THIS TROUGH...AIDED BY PASSING MID-LEVEL ENERGY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A PASSING SHOWER LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT KSBY THROUGH 20Z. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED SUN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES XPCD THROUGH MON. HI PRES SLIDES E OF THE WTRS THROUGH TNGT. S TO SW WINDS WILL AOB 15 KT TDA...INCRS A BIT TNGT...ESP ON THE OCN (TO ABT 20 KT). IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CDFNT...SIMILAR CONDS (SSW WNDS AVGG SPEEDS AOB 15 KT) SUN THROUGH MON. THAT CDFNT TO CROSS THE WTRS MON...THEN OFF THE CST MON NGT. WNDS WILL TURN TO THE NW BEHIND THE FNT INTO TUE (W/ A PSBL SURGE IN SPEEDS). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...DAP MARINE...TMG

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