Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 281057
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
High pressure will slowly slides off the New England coast
through tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will linger off the
southeast coast Monday into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Hi pres aloft remains firmly in place over the Mid Atlantic region
through today...while sfc hi pres slowly slides E off the New
England coast. Meanwhile...very weak sfc low pres in the far wrn
Atlantic will be slowly tracking wwd...approaching the NC-SC
offshore waters. Deep layered ENE flow will remain in place. Sfc
winds will average 10-15 mph at the coast...aob 10 mph inland. Will
continue to have SCT-BKN SC moving onshore through today...most
widespread expected to be over SE VA-NE NC...while starting the
day w/ patchy ST and FG inland. Highes in the l80s at the
immediate coast...the 85 to 90F elsewhere.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much change to the pattern tonight-Mon/Tue. Another weak
front pushes through the NE CONUS (and S into VA) as a sfc trough
lingers off the coastal Carolinas. Highs will average in the u80s-
l90s (l80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the u60s-l70s
along w/ 15-30% chances for mainly aftn/eve shras/tstms over SE
VA- NE NC zones.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Will continue to go with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for
the extended period. Will have a slgt to small chc (15-30%) for
pcpn Tue ngt into Thu evening fm the combination of possible
tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs
the area late Wed thru Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter
into the region for Thu ngt thru Sat, as high pressure blds in fm
the N and slides to just offshore by late Sat. Highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s Wed, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the
lower to mid 80s Fri and Sat. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue
ngt and Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, and in the upper
50s to mid 60s Fri ngt.
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low level ENE flow bringing in SCT-BKN clouds (cigs roughly
1000-1500ft) - most concentrated invof SE VA-NE NC...difficult
attm to determine exact coverage though. Also...possible MVFR/IFR
due to fog through about 13Z/28. Will not rule out isolated
pcpn...mainly near ORF/ECG through today...otherwise generally
high end MVFR to VFR in SCT-BKN CU. Reinforcing frontal boundary
settle S across the FA late Mon-Mon ngt. Mainly dry weather is
expected through Wed. For Sunday through Wednesday...isolated to
scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening across
far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG).
-- End Changed Discussion --
Sub-sca conditions will continue across the waters through at least
the next few days. Sfc hi pressure over New England this morng
will slide offshore tda with onshore flow continuing over the
local area. Expect 1-3 ft waves over the bay and 3-4 ft seas over
the coastal waters. Winds average 10-15 kt for Mon thru Wed, as
high pressure weakens and weak low pressure areas or possible
tropical lows will spin off the SE or Mid Atlc.
Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the
area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on
forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and
Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good
chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only
received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it
would rank as the 3rd driest on record).