Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 240647
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
247 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
A frontal boundary becomes stationary near the VA NC border
overnight...then remains there through Friday. High pressure
builds in from the north over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Frontal becoming stationary ovr far srn/SE VA attm. Earlier
strong convection has settled S into NC. Atmos stabilized has
and expecting rather widespread shras/isold tstms for
overnight...esp cntrl/srn VA into NE NC. Trended POPs gradually
down aft mdngt fm NW to SE. Lows in the u60s-l70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models slower with taking the front into North Carolina Friday.
Enough moisture / instability available for chc pops most areas
Friday despite the high pressure building South. A wave of low
pressure along this boundary will likely enhance the convection
across southern zones after 18z. Have increased pops to likely there
with SPC keeping most areas south of I64 in SLGHT risk for severe
tstms. Severe threat will likely depend on location of the front
and points south of it. Threat will be damaging winds / large
hail. Temps tricky as a NE wind will likely keep coastal/beach
areas in the upr 70s-lwr 80s...mid-upr 80s west of the bay.
Chance pops continue Friday evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
assocated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s north
to lwr 70s se.
High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.
Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Due to dry conditions in the low levels...mainly VFR conditions
are expected, with IFR stratus and fog possible early this morning
at SBY. Scattered showers/tstms can be expected as the frontal
boundary sinks slowly to the south but there is not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs aside from vcsh. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be at ECG.
OUTLOOK...Dry weather is forecast tonight through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Generally quiet conditions across the marine area for the next few
days. The stationary front across nrn VA will slowly move south
across the waters through Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will
develop along the front and move over the area. As such...south-
southwest winds tonight will gradually turn northeasterly by Friday
night across the waters. Do not expect significant strengthening of
the low and as such am thinking the winds over the coastal waters
will stay well below 20 kt and waves will stay in the 3-4 ft range.
The front remains stationary Saturday keeping NE winds across the
area. High pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before
another cold front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.