Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240647 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 247 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary becomes stationary near the VA NC border overnight...then remains there through Friday. High pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Frontal becoming stationary ovr far srn/SE VA attm. Earlier strong convection has settled S into NC. Atmos stabilized has and expecting rather widespread shras/isold tstms for overnight...esp cntrl/srn VA into NE NC. Trended POPs gradually down aft mdngt fm NW to SE. Lows in the u60s-l70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models slower with taking the front into North Carolina Friday. Enough moisture / instability available for chc pops most areas Friday despite the high pressure building South. A wave of low pressure along this boundary will likely enhance the convection across southern zones after 18z. Have increased pops to likely there with SPC keeping most areas south of I64 in SLGHT risk for severe tstms. Severe threat will likely depend on location of the front and points south of it. Threat will be damaging winds / large hail. Temps tricky as a NE wind will likely keep coastal/beach areas in the upr 70s-lwr 80s...mid-upr 80s west of the bay. Chance pops continue Friday evening but taper off north to south after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and assocated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr 70s se. High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow. Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Due to dry conditions in the low levels...mainly VFR conditions are expected, with IFR stratus and fog possible early this morning at SBY. Scattered showers/tstms can be expected as the frontal boundary sinks slowly to the south but there is not enough confidence to mention in the TAFs aside from vcsh. The best chance for thunderstorms will be at ECG. OUTLOOK...Dry weather is forecast tonight through Monday as high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... Generally quiet conditions across the marine area for the next few days. The stationary front across nrn VA will slowly move south across the waters through Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front and move over the area. As such...south- southwest winds tonight will gradually turn northeasterly by Friday night across the waters. Do not expect significant strengthening of the low and as such am thinking the winds over the coastal waters will stay well below 20 kt and waves will stay in the 3-4 ft range. The front remains stationary Saturday keeping NE winds across the area. High pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MAS/LSA MARINE...MRD

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