Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280041 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 741 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR- LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. && .MARINE... PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...SAM

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