Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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297 FXUS61 KAKQ 231950 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 350 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered just offshore of the Southeast Coast today...as a surface cold front approaches the region from the northwest. The remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy will cross the region with the cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls farther south off the Carolinas Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Latest analysis reflects surface cold front aligned from the western Great Lakes back into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Low pressure...the remnants of TD Cindy now noted on early afternoon VIS/IR satellite imagery lifting across the Mid-South toward the lower Ohio River Valley. Regional radar mosaic indicating some isolated light to moderate showers pushing across the area at 18z. However, latest mesoanalysis indicating a capping inversion in place across the area. Question for the balance of the afternoon is how quickly can we can destabilize that cap enough to tap into convective potential. Time-lagged HRRR and CONShort blend has done well with convective trends so far, and have leaned in its direction for the afternoon and early evening. Overall, expect mainly dry (albeit very warm and humid) afternoon across the southern half of the area, with no real discernible trigger and drier air filtering in from the coastal Carolinas. Therefore, will go no higher than a 20% POP for isolated shower or T-Storm. Farther north, cap should keep a lid on Pop, allowing little more than iso to widely scattered convection through 00z. Well-advertised low- level jet analyzed over E OH/W PA, and should be far enough north to not have too much of an impact with convective potential locally. Thus, pops have been tapered down into 20-40% range over far nw zones (Cumberland, VA to Tappahannock, VA to Salisbury, MD) for the afternoon, with lower pops back into RIC metro. CAMs are at least a little bit more bullish on convective development up that way. Otherwise, very warm, breezy and moderately humid for the rest of this afternoon with highs in the u80s to low 90s for most inland, low to mid 80s along the Atlantic coastal zones. Heat indices ~100 through early evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain chances in the short term mainly confined to late tonight through Saturday night, as the remnants of Cindy get absorbed and essentially merge into a frontal wave, lifting from the Lower Ohio Valley toward the southern Mid-Atlantic late tonight through Saturday afternoon. Any scattered showers and storms quickly wane by early evening with loss of heating. We are then mainly dry until after midnight, as the surface front approaches from the NW, dragging the remnants of TD Cindy across the local area along with it. The front will supply enough lift for a narrow area of showers and an isolated thunderstorm moving across the area after midnight tonight into early Saturday morning. Short-lived moderate to heavy showers would be efficient rainfall producers, but any flooding concerns would be limited, as showers should be progressive. Partly to mostly cloudy outside of any showers, and turning breezy overnight as winds increase, owing to tightening pressure gradient between approaching front and Bermuda ridge offshore. Look for winds out of the SW to gust to around 20-25 mph overnight. Early morning lows mainly in the 70s. Overall trend of 12z suite has been towards a more progressive solution with the front and frontal wave (remnants of TD). Behind this feature, models are in good agreement with shearing the precip apart Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Midwest will slowly dig south and help to push the front east across the area...as the Bermuda High also retreats to the east. Maintained 40-60% rain chances over the coastal plain during this period for the afternoon and evening...and into the overnight hours Sunday morning, as sct convection develops as the front gets hung up across the SE Coast into the Carolinas Sat afternoon and evening. Warm and muggy yet again with highs Saturday generally in the upper 80s to around 90. Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the front for Sat night and Sunday, bringing a pleasant end to the weekend wx-wise. Lows Saturday night in the low- mid 60s far NW, upper 60s inland, lower 70s SE. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Lingering spotty convection along the Albemarle Sound will come to an end Sunday morning with the rest of the area remaining dry. A much more comfortable afternoon and evening Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches), and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Comfortable sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Long term period will feature generally dry wx with slightly below normal temps on avg. For Sun night/Mon, aforementioned cold front pushes farther offshore leading to light NW flow and decreasing clouds. After low temps in the 60s Sun night, expect high temps in the low/mid 80s Mon. Another cold front crosses the area Mon night, but the fropa should be dry due to a lack of moisture. Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue night/Wed behind a mid-level trough pushing offshore. Dry again for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally am anticipating VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon and evening. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings may be possible this afternoon with a SCT-BKN 2500 foot cloud deck. High resolution models continue to hint at a few showers and potentially a rumble of thunder impacting northern and western portions of the region later this afternoon. Any showers that do redevelop will be highly scattered in nature, but may produce periods of MVFR. All precipitation is expected to taper off after sunset. A cold front approaches western portions of the region by 08Z bringing the next chance for showers. The highest chance for rain will once again be confined to northern and western portions of the region. Winds will continue to be gusty this afternoon, occasionally gusting in excess of 25 knots. Gusts to around 30 knots will be possible after midnight as the cold front approaches the region and the gradient tightens. Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing the potential for Sub-VFR conditions. Any shower activity comes to an end by early Sunday. A return to VFR conditions is expected Sunday through early next week as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE...
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SCA hazards continue as planned for tngt into Sat as the pres gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect mainly 15-20 kt winds over all waters tngt, gusting up to 25-30 kt over the ocean where seas will increase to 5-7 ft out 20 nm. Winds decrease as the front slides through the area late Sat, so all headlines will end during the day Sat, with the last ones being the northern cstl waters for seas aoa 5 ft. Little in the way of CAA behind the front, so anticipate winds mainly aob 10 kt on Sun and Mon, with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl waters. Another cold front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following the front so expected sub-SCA conditions. Sfc high pres returns for the middle of next week.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633-635>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJZ/MAS

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