Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 250011
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
811 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered convection will be based on track of the s/w trof crossing
the area this evening as well as outflow boundarys from the storms
going on across the northern Delmarva. Area remains in slight risk
for damaging winds/large hail, with best chances before sunset using
the logic that for any storm to become severe it will have to act on
the available cape/shear from todays heating and leftover boundarys
from previous convection. Expect any convection to weaken then
diminish with only low chc pops overnight as the boundary sags south
and winds to turn NE. The other concern will be for patchy fog to
form...especially in areas that see rain. Kept chc pops for now and
added patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.
The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.
Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
entire area Monday night into Tuesday with the lee trough over the
region. The upper support and jet axis stays well north of the area,
and as such do not expect severe weather on Monday night. The upper
trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers
and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler
weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the
area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area,
will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on
Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop
along the front and allow moisture to return to the area.
Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the upper 80s before
dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...Onshore winds were developing at the TAF sites as a cold
front slides to the south of the area. The front will reach North
Carolina overnight and continue south into Georgia by Sunday. The
onshroe winds will increase low level moisture with MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilties expected. IFR has already developed at SBY
and MVFR or IFR can be expected to develop between 06 and 10z
elsewhere. Conditions will slowly to improve Saturday morning with
winds continuing from the east.
OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend as high
pressure builds from the north. Additional restrictions to
visibilities and ceilings will be possible once again Sunday
morning. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Monday through Tuesday night with precipitation ending from west to
east on Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters
tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire
region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not
expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the
coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the
high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the
winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next
cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the
expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see
seas of 4 feet across the northern waters.
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the