Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 031016 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 616 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS (TO 80-100%) ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE MRNG. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSTMS TO SE VA/NE NC. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD RA/ISOLD TSTMS EXTENDS FM THE LWR MD ERN SHORE SW TO SCNTRL VA. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN SLO TO PUSH E THE PAST FEW HRS. A CDFNT WAS FOUND JUST NW OF THE FA INVOF THE MTNS. MDLS CONT TO PUSH NUMEROUS (MNLY) SHRAS TO THE E THROUGH THIS MRNG AS CDFNT SETTLES SE INTO THE FA. THAT CDFNT ARRIVES IN SE VA/NE NC BY LT THIS AFTN. BULK OF THE RA XPCD TO SHIFT E AND OFF THE CST BY MID AFTN. AFT THAT...ADDITIONAL SHRAS/SCT TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY LATER TDA WILL BE ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...AND THAT AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. RA EARLY TDA NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO HEAVY. HIGHER PROB FOR LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTN/EVE. HI TEMPS FM THE U60S- L70S N TO THE U70S-ARND 80F S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB- MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO NR 60F. UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS (40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUING THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE SE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z-11Z...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURING AS WELL. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE PCPN THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE IMPROVING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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