Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250011 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 811 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered convection will be based on track of the s/w trof crossing the area this evening as well as outflow boundarys from the storms going on across the northern Delmarva. Area remains in slight risk for damaging winds/large hail, with best chances before sunset using the logic that for any storm to become severe it will have to act on the available cape/shear from todays heating and leftover boundarys from previous convection. Expect any convection to weaken then diminish with only low chc pops overnight as the boundary sags south and winds to turn NE. The other concern will be for patchy fog to form...especially in areas that see rain. Kept chc pops for now and added patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr 70s south. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except 75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind. The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night. Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay, 75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s. Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture ahead of it does not increase until after expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the entire area Monday night into Tuesday with the lee trough over the region. The upper support and jet axis stays well north of the area, and as such do not expect severe weather on Monday night. The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow moisture to return to the area. Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the upper 80s before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Onshore winds were developing at the TAF sites as a cold front slides to the south of the area. The front will reach North Carolina overnight and continue south into Georgia by Sunday. The onshroe winds will increase low level moisture with MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties expected. IFR has already developed at SBY and MVFR or IFR can be expected to develop between 06 and 10z elsewhere. Conditions will slowly to improve Saturday morning with winds continuing from the east. OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds from the north. Additional restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once again Sunday morning. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms late Monday through Tuesday night with precipitation ending from west to east on Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.
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&& .MARINE... The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see seas of 4 feet across the northern waters. && .HYDROLOGY... After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning. This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening. Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the rainfall. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MRD HYDROLOGY... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.