Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181845 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 145 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure, well off the Mid Atlantic coast late this morning, will track east northeast farther out to sea this afternoon while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure sliding from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the Southeast Coast will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area Friday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Late this morning, low pressure that brought the snow to the region, was located well off the Mid Atlc coast. While high pressure was cntrd over nrn LA. Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly this aftn. Limited mixing combined with slowly melting snow should result in rather stable lapse rates, and this will offset mid-level WAA with surface high temps only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will then slide from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the SE Coast tonight through Saturday, and bring dry weather, a clear/sunny sky, and moderating temperatures to the area. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 20s, with some upper teens possible over the SW piedmont where a thicker snowpack will be present. Highs Friday will mainly be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 20 to around 30F. The airmass will continue to modify Saturday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to perhaps around 60F well inland, with low to mid 50s for the Ern Shore and coastal SE VA/NE NC. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models remain in generally good agreement wrt the pattern for the extended forecast period. Anticipated milder spell of wx will continue into the middle of next week as transition of MJO through phase 4 toward phase 5. Sfc hi pres and upper level ridging near the E coast will gradually weaken into Mon. By late Mon...storm system tracking into the wrn Great Lakes will push its trailing cold front into the mtns. That front will make progress across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAs (though 00Z/18 ECMWF remains a tad slower than 12Z/18 GFS attm). Will carry 60-70% PoPs during that time frame. Drying/clearing out and a bit cooler (returning closer to seasonal levels) for Tue afternoon-Thu. Lows Sun night mainly 35-40F. Highs Mon in the l-m50s on the ern shore to the u50s-l60s elsewhere. Lows Mon night mainly in the l-m40s. Highs Tue in the l50s on the ern shore to the 55-60F elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the m-u40s on the ern shore to the u40s-m50s elsewhere. Lows Wed night from the u20s NW to the m30s SE. Highs ranging through the 40s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this aftn into Fri aftn with SKC, as sfc high pressure builds into the area fm the WSW. West or NW winds will still gust to near 15-20 kt early this aftn, then calm down and become WSW less than 10 kt for this evening into Fri aftn. Outlook: Dry wx and VFR conditions will continue Fri night thru Sun, as high pressure mainly dominates. Next chance for showers (rain) and possible flight restrictions will arrive later Mon/Mon night. && .MARINE... Sfc lo pres now well E of the coast this afternoon. Winds slowly becoming W while waning as CAA has ended. Will be hanging onto SCA on the ocean into this eve as seas are slow to drop blo 5 ft. Sfc hi pres settles over the waters tonight...and persists through the weekend allowing for sub-SCA conditions. && .CLIMATE... Norfolk Top Five Snow Totals for the month of January (2018 currently sits at #4) 14.2/1966 13.8/1955 13.7/1893 12.8/2018*** 12.7/1940 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...

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