Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 012323 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 723 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THEN STALL OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN ASSCTD WITH EARLIER S/W HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH THE FA IN A PCPN "LULL" DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHID THE DEPARTING S/W. ALTHOUGH NO PCPN IS CRNTLY ON RADAR...KEPT THE SLGHT CHC POPS IN OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT POP UP GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MSTR. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CRNTLY MOVG ACROSS W VA AND THE VA MTS. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST FROM THE MTS AFTER 02Z THEN EXPANDS AS IT DRIFTS ESE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN H85 WARM FRNTL BNDRY. BEEFED UP THE GRIDS A BIT EXPECTING SHWRS/TSTRMS TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN CNTYS BTWN 03-06Z THEN DRIFTING SE WHILE WEAKENING A BIT BTWN 06-10Z. WENT AHEAD AND ADDRESSED THIS IN AN UPDATED HWO. BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOWS 60-65 F ACRS MOST AREAS...IN THE 50S ACRS THE ERN SHORE (WHERE READINGS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT). OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR STRATUS MORE THAN FOG BUT DO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS...JUST DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AND SOME SUNSHINE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN...AS SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON MON. THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER...AND WILL GENLY HAVE A DRY FCST UNTIL LATE AFTN AS FORCING WILL BE WEAK DESPITE WARMING TEMPS AND DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 60S. BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...AND THEN RAMP POPS UP TO CHC FROM 19-22Z...AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. HIGHS GENLY 80-85 F...THOUGH 70S NR THE CST AND ERN SHORE. UPR LVL LO PRES EXITING THE MS VLY RESULTS IN INCRSG MOISTURE INTO THE MDATLC STATES BEGINNING MON EVE. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE XPCD TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWS IT`S PROGRESSION MON NGT/TUE. THIS DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT. CDFNT RMNS SLO TO PUSH TO THE CST THROUGH TUE EVENING. WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MON NGT INTO TUE AFTN. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN WIND/HAIL THOUGH THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WILL INCLUDE AT CHC TSTM MON NGT/TUE MRNG ALL AREAS...THEN ONLY ACRS FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE ARND 60F NW TO THE M60S SE. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE LWR-MID 70S N/CENTRAL TO UPPER 70S S. COOLER WITH DIMINISHING CHC FOR PRECIP WED...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ALONG WITH PTLY-MCDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LINGERS NEAR THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PERIODS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S EXCEPT RANGING INTO THE UPR 70S ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE INDICATED NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPR 40S INLAND RURAL AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR/IFR CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH SCT SHRAS. INCLUDED VCTS AS WELL FOR ORF/PHF/ECG WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT PRESENT. LO CIGS CONTINUE THIS EVENG AND LIKELY LOWER OVRNGT FOR NRN TERMINALS WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRNT TO THE S. OTWS...SLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRNT WELL OFF TO THE W. SHOWER CHANCES AND LO CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRNT DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON TUE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PCPN EVERY DAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA ALONG WITH VARIOUS DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. THE WINDS WERE TRENDING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME S/SW ON MONDAY. A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT. WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS BUILDING IN THIS AREA BASED ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES INTACT. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE ARE NO SPECIFIC PROJECTIONS FOR HEADLINES BEYOND MONDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MAS MARINE...LSA

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