Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 280608
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
208 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
A cold front slowly approaches from the west overnight. The front
will move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Axis of incrsd moisture approaching the FA fm the W...out well to
the E of cdfnt moving through the OH vly. Hi res/near term guid
suggests that area of shras/isold tstms entering far nnw areas
attm...sloly progresses ESE through the overnight hrs. Highest POP
axis (30-50%) mnly centered fm SBY-AVC. POPs aob 20% confined to
far SE VA-cstl NE NC. Otrw...partly cloudy SE to vrb clds-mostly
cloudy elsw. Most lows 68-72F.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant
cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy
progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model
consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the
Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an
anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters
progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard
deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will
keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures
warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally
unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more
widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the
region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized
convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally
along and east of Interstate 95. The main threat will be locally
heavy rainfall due to the moist air mass and relatively weak flow.
Upper trough tracks over New England Tuesday night, pushing the
cold front through the local area. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly
cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper 60`s.
Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture
(precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s.
Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low
pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an
inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians.
Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast
area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers
coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near
seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend) in tandem with the boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.
For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Early this morning, a cold front was dropping thru the Ohio
valley. The front will move southeast and pass acrs the Mid Atlc
States tonight into Wed morning. An upper level disturbance and
surface trough will produce sctd showers and tstms today into
this evening, with additional sctd pcpn possible with the front
tonight. Conditions are expected to generally be MVFR with the
weather, but a few hours of IFR will be possible at RIC and SBY.
Winds will be light and generally fm the south.
OUTLOOK...Expect mainly dry/VFR conditions for Wed and Thu, as
high pres nudges in fm the WNW. More chances for pcpn return next
-- End Changed Discussion --
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.
Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").
-- Changed Discussion --MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
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