Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280219 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1019 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NC/SC COAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. LIGHT SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST...BUT MUCH OF THE INTERIOR STILL REPORTING CALM CONDITIONS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S MANY AREAS...BUT HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST HR DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL...THIS RETURN WAA WILL KEEP MINS SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS OF INTERIOR VA...TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUE. DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPRCHG COLD FRONT TAKES H85 TMPS UP TO BTWN 15-17C. UPSHOT WILL BE A MSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SUMMER-LIKE TMPS. HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S XCPT M-U70S ACROSS THE ERN SHORE. DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TMPS...THESE READINGS FALL SHY OF THE RECORD HIGHS. NOTE CLI SECTION BELOW. DRY & WARM WITH INCRG CLOUDINESS TUE NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ANY PCPN UNTIL AFTR 12Z WED. PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW KEEP LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S. MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED...PUSHING THE ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW/DEEPENING LOW AND BEST DYNAMICS ORIENTED WELL OFF TO THE N-NE ALL WOULD SEEM TO PORTEND TO A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVMNT. KEPT 30-40% POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST OF THE BAY WED AFTN... WITH SCT SHRAS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL ARND 00Z THU OVER SERN CWA. A NARROW SWATH OF MOISTURE PROGGED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT QPF WITH THE FROPA BTWN .10 TO .25 INCHES. MILD WED DUE TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF BNDRY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE L70S IN THE PIEDMONT... 75-80 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA/NE NC AND THE LWR ERN SHORE. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OVER COASTAL ZONES BY 12Z THU. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FCST AS BEST SPRT FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE IVOF GULF STREAM AFTER 00Z. TRUE CAA SURGE DELAYED A BIT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS HANGS BACK TO THE WEST. LOWS WED NIGHT M-U40S INLAND/ERN SHORE... 50-55 SERN COAST. DCRG CLDNS W-E THU WITH MSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THE AFTRN. COOLER WITH HIGHS 60-65. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURS NIGHT/FRI FOR DRY WX. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE EAST COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT...WITH A STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE NE COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE THEN QUICKLY LIFTS NE AND WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE FORCING LOOKS THE BEST. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AFTER A SEASONABLE DAY ON FRI...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRI FROM THE UPR 50S NW TO THE MID 60 SE. HIGHS SAT/SUN MAINLY 50-55. MONDAY`S HIGHS 55-60. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. MANY INLAND AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FROST/FREEZE OF THE SEASON SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT TO 40 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIMILAR LOWS AGAIN SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS INCREASE TUE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. A NOCTURNAL SUB-SCA SURGE IN WINDS (AOB 15KT BAY/AOB 20KT OCEAN) SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SEAS/WAVES SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT/3-4FT RESPECTIVELY DURING THE WIND SURGES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON WED AND WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...FOLLOWED BY NLY WINDS THU INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE DELMARVA. A VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI AND INTO THE NE STATES ON SAT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BTWN THE TROUGH AND COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERY TIGHT WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY DURING THIS TIME. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...DAP/JAB MARINE...JDM

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