Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 300646
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
146 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016
A complex weather system over the Midwest and Northeast States will
affect the region through Wednesday night. A cold front approaches
from the west and crosses the Mid Atlantic States Wednesday night.
High pressure slowly builds into the area Thursday through Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Latest surface analysis indicates a stalled frontal boundary over
the Eastern Virginia Piedmont this evening, with a stronger/more
pronounced cold front over the Midwest. Forecast area remains dry,
outside of a few lingering light showers near the Albemarle Sound.
Soundings indicate some warming aloft, so expect the remaining
evening hours to remain dry. Several breaks in the clouds are
visible on satellite, which is resulting in some patchy ground fog
Richmond north and west. However, southerly winds of 5-10 mph and
a partly cloudy sky will limit overall fog development. Have kept
any mention of fog through late tonight Richmond north and west
and across the Maryland Eastern Shore. An upper level warm front
lifts into the region late tonight, accompanied by modest
perturbations in southwest flow aloft. Theta-e advection and
already moist low levels in concert with the added lift will be
enough for some scattered light showers generally from the
Piedmont into central and southern Virginia. Lower chances across
the southeast. Any remaining light precip lifts north of the
region by mid morning. Temperatures level off through the
overnight in the low to mid 60`s.
A s/w will be tracking NE in SW flow aloft...initially invof
TN/OH Valleys by late tonight...then to the local area by Wed
afternoon. Precipitation chances increase from the west. SPC has
outlooked our area with marginal risk of severe with damaging
winds being the main threat. Most of our area will considerable
cloud cover so instability may be limited, but there will be
moderate shear. For now, have chance for thunderstorms generally
east of Interstate 95 but will need to monitor. High temperatures
warm into the low to mid 70`s across most of the area on
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front pushes acrs the area and off the coast Wed ngt into
early Thu morning, with showers and a slgt chc for tstms. Gusty
winds and heavy downpours a possibility with any tstms. Clearing
out fm WNW to ESE later Wed ngt into Thu morning, as WNW flow
behind the front ushers drier air into the region. Lows Wed ngt
will range fm the upper 40s NW to the upper 50s SE.
Dry wx then expected Thu thru Fri, as a dry westerly flow
dominates the area, as high pressure gradually builds toward the
region fm the WNW. Generally mostly sunny both days, with highs on
Thu in the lower to mid 60s, and cooler on Fri with highs in the
lower to mid 50s. Lows Thu ngt will range fm the mid 30s to the
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cool high pressure is expected to be centered from the
Mississippi Valley through the Southeast Conus Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic region
Saturday night into Sunday as a split flow pattern develops aloft,
with a srn stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and
a nrn stream wave diving into the Upper Midwest. This will result
in dry conditions under a mainly clear sky, although high clouds
may increase by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly
below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows
Friday night and Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to
the mid/upper 30s along the coast, with highs Saturday/Sunday in
the upper 40s to low 50s. GFS/ECMWF keep the srn stream system
south of the region Sunday night into Monday. However, the ECMWF
is more aggressive with the nrn stream wave, but the net result
may be minimal with respect to sensible weather as the system will
be moisture starved. High pressure returns later Monday into
Monday night, with low pressure approaching from the west during
the Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe. At this time the 29/12z GFS
is about 12hrs faster than the 29/12z ECMWF.
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --LIFR/IFR (mainly cigs) developing attm...esp inland. SCT shras
will be spreading NNE across the FA through the rest of the night.
Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions expected (well) into Wed morning.
Expect some breaks in the clouds by this afternoon w/ conditions
returning to VFR. Breezy again...w/ S gusts around 25 to 30 kt.
Cold front pushes across the region this evening/tonight w/ shras
and possible isold T. Sfc hi pres slowly builds in through the
end of the work week...resulting in VFR/fair wx.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Update...SCA flag for mouth of Ches Bay allowed to expire at 1000
PM this evening. A new round of SCA flags have been issued for the
Bay, Sound, and Ern VA rivers beginning at noon on Wednesday and
persisting into Wednesday night.
A trough is pushing through the nrn Mid-Atlantic this aftn
resulting in southerly flow of 15-25kt, with gusts up to 30 kt
over the lwr Bay and ocean. The trough lifts newd through New
England tonight with the wind diminishing quickly through the
evening and becoming sw 10-15kt overnight. Waves in the Bay are
generally 3-4ft, with seas ranging from 4-5ft s, to 5-7ft n. Waves
in the Bay subside to 2-3ft tonight. However, seas likely remain
4-6ft. SCAs continue for the Bay/lwr James/Sound through 7 pm,
with flags for the ocean running through Wednesday night to
capture lingering seas and the next southerly surge.
A cold front is expected to push through the Ohio Valley
Wednesday and then push off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late Wednesday
night. The wind should shift to south Wednesday into Wednesday
evening and increase to 15-25kt. It is likely that another round
of SCAs will be necessary for the Bay/Sound/rivers, but will let
the current headlines expire before re-issuing. The wind becomes
westerly at 10- 15kt (minimal CAA) behind the front late
Wednesday night into Thursday. A nw wind of 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean
should prevail Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds across
the Southeast Conus and low pressure persists over Atlantic
Canada. High pressure builds over the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Seas subside from 3-4ft to 2-3ft, with ~2ft waves in the
Well above normal temperatures are forecast Wednesday. Some
temperatures will approach record highs.
Richmond: 77 (1933)
Norfolk: 79 (2001)
Salisbury: 74 (1933)
Elizabeth City: 80 (2001)
Wallops Island: 74 (1991)
-- Changed Discussion --MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EST Thursday for
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday for
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-
-- End Changed Discussion --