Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282105 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 405 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST). MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE. PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS U40S-M50S ELSW. SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN (PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND. THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY. && .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX THIS AFTN...THUS KEEPING SEAS AROUND 5FT FROM CAPE HENRY SWD TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED SCA FLAGS FOR SRN WATERS UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING WHEN SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING): 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ __________________________________________ RIC11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY): 2/28 _______ RIC 28/1934 ORF 30/1934 SBY 29/1934 ECG 33/1934 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-049-060>064-069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ065>068. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...JEF MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...AKQ

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