Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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137 FXUS61 KAKQ 270232 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 932 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Broad southwest flow behind this high will allow temperatures to warm to well above normal again through mid week before a cold front passes through the area Wednesday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Sfc high shifting offshore this evening. Under the clr skies, temps have quickly dropped since sunset with readings already in the upr 20s to lwr 30s in some of the colder awos sites to the upr 30s to lwr 40s across the se. CI already developing across ern NC and will quickly overspread the area from the west after midnight. Adjusted mins a bit with lows by morning in the upr 20s to lwr 30s most areas except mid 30s sern beach areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday will end up being another quiet and much warmer day with warm advection on the back side of the high helping temps to warm well into the 60s. There may be some mid clouds around but otherwise any precipitation associated with the warm advection should stay north of the region where a weak upper disturbance will move through the building ridge aloft. No major changes to the remainder of the forecast through Wednesday. Broad warm advection and increasing moisture will allow for small chances for showers late Monday night into Tuesday. However, the best chance for rain would be later on Tuesday with a weak upper disturbance moving through combined with a weak surface trough/warm front. The warm front moves north of the area by late Tuesday night leaving the area in the warm sector for the day on Wednesday. It should be very warm on Wednesday with temperatures touching 80 in many locations as there will likely be some sunshine with 850mb temperatures close to +15C. With the cold front and approaching trough being delayed per the GFS/ECMWF, mainly just expect a gusty and dry day on Wednesday although one could not completely rule out a shower or storm later in the day due to the developing pre-frontal trough over the piedmont and the NW part of the forecast area. Will therefore keep small chance pops in those areas on Wednesday but dry elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An active northern stream with a west to northwest flow will bring a few days of cooler weather late in the week. The main event for the long term period will be the cold front that moves through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the potential for thunderstorms. Followed close to the slower Euro on the timing of the front. This puts the front through well after Midnight. Have likely POPs across the area in association with the front beginning in our far western Piedmont counties around Midnight and reaching the coast before sunrise. SPC has the area outlooked for DAY 4 severe but an overnight timing would limit the severe potential. A weak short wave will bring a small chance for rain (20 to 30 percent) Friday over northeast portions of the area (mainly northern neck and lower Eastern Shore). Temperatures will be closer to normal during the long term than those of the recent past. Temperatures will lower Thursday through Saturday then warm some on Sunday. Highs around 60 Thursday lower to the mid 40s to lower 50s by Saturday then increase to between 60 and 65 Sunday except 50s along the coast. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday morning lower to the 30s the rest of the week with some upper 20s inland areas Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions across the region with high pressure dominating the weather. Winds are mostly light and variable. Some mid and high level clouds are expected to move into the area overnight ahead of a warm front to the south. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken Monday night into Tuesday and some MVFR/IFR conditions are possible as a warm front moves north of the area accompanied by a chance of rain. Another cold front will approach the region from the west on Wednesday, cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high pressure Thursday. This front will bring another chance for thunderstorms to the region late Wed into Wed night. && .MARINE... High pressure over the Mid Atlantic States settled the winds to mainly less than 10 knots Sunday afternoon. Seas of 3 to 4 ft will slowly subside overnight. The high slowly moves off the coast and winds begin to increase from the south and southwest. The next SCA will begin Tuesday night as seas build back up to 4 to 5 ft. A strong cold front approaches from the west and winds increase to SCA criteria in the Bay on Wednesday. SCA will be needed through Thursday in portions due to post frontal winds and seas. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest. Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MPR/MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...BMD/JEF MARINE...LSA CLIMATE...AKQ

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