Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171958 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 358 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NE NC...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC...BUT VISIBLE SAT TRENDS DEPICT SOME ADDED SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH IN THE SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRACKING THRU NC ATTM. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE TRACKS IN ITS WAKE OVER SRN VA/NRN NC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS AOB 1.25 INCHES AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. HIGH PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO THE WAVE AND REMNANT MID- LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF RICHMOND AND TO THE MD ERN SHORE. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CLOUDS/THICKNESSES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S IN THE SE. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. MAIN CNTRL OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY. WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK SFC LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTN. SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN NC S-SW OF ALBEMARLE SOUND AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INVOF THE VA/NC BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KFVX-KPTB-KMFV. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF THIS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND VARIABLE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF IT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AGL AFTER 18/0800Z. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE FOGGY/HAZY CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2SM ALSO AFTER 18/0800Z. NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KT THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .MARINE... NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD/JDM MARINE...TMG

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