Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300646 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 146 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A complex weather system over the Midwest and Northeast States will affect the region through Wednesday night. A cold front approaches from the west and crosses the Mid Atlantic States Wednesday night. High pressure slowly builds into the area Thursday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Latest surface analysis indicates a stalled frontal boundary over the Eastern Virginia Piedmont this evening, with a stronger/more pronounced cold front over the Midwest. Forecast area remains dry, outside of a few lingering light showers near the Albemarle Sound. Soundings indicate some warming aloft, so expect the remaining evening hours to remain dry. Several breaks in the clouds are visible on satellite, which is resulting in some patchy ground fog Richmond north and west. However, southerly winds of 5-10 mph and a partly cloudy sky will limit overall fog development. Have kept any mention of fog through late tonight Richmond north and west and across the Maryland Eastern Shore. An upper level warm front lifts into the region late tonight, accompanied by modest perturbations in southwest flow aloft. Theta-e advection and already moist low levels in concert with the added lift will be enough for some scattered light showers generally from the Piedmont into central and southern Virginia. Lower chances across the southeast. Any remaining light precip lifts north of the region by mid morning. Temperatures level off through the overnight in the low to mid 60`s. Previous discussion... A s/w will be tracking NE in SW flow aloft...initially invof TN/OH Valleys by late tonight...then to the local area by Wed afternoon. Precipitation chances increase from the west. SPC has outlooked our area with marginal risk of severe with damaging winds being the main threat. Most of our area will considerable cloud cover so instability may be limited, but there will be moderate shear. For now, have chance for thunderstorms generally east of Interstate 95 but will need to monitor. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 70`s across most of the area on Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front pushes acrs the area and off the coast Wed ngt into early Thu morning, with showers and a slgt chc for tstms. Gusty winds and heavy downpours a possibility with any tstms. Clearing out fm WNW to ESE later Wed ngt into Thu morning, as WNW flow behind the front ushers drier air into the region. Lows Wed ngt will range fm the upper 40s NW to the upper 50s SE. Dry wx then expected Thu thru Fri, as a dry westerly flow dominates the area, as high pressure gradually builds toward the region fm the WNW. Generally mostly sunny both days, with highs on Thu in the lower to mid 60s, and cooler on Fri with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Thu ngt will range fm the mid 30s to the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cool high pressure is expected to be centered from the Mississippi Valley through the Southeast Conus Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday as a split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn stream wave diving into the Upper Midwest. This will result in dry conditions under a mainly clear sky, although high clouds may increase by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows Friday night and Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s along the coast, with highs Saturday/Sunday in the upper 40s to low 50s. GFS/ECMWF keep the srn stream system south of the region Sunday night into Monday. However, the ECMWF is more aggressive with the nrn stream wave, but the net result may be minimal with respect to sensible weather as the system will be moisture starved. High pressure returns later Monday into Monday night, with low pressure approaching from the west during the Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe. At this time the 29/12z GFS is about 12hrs faster than the 29/12z ECMWF. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LIFR/IFR (mainly cigs) developing attm...esp inland. SCT shras will be spreading NNE across the FA through the rest of the night. Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions expected (well) into Wed morning. Expect some breaks in the clouds by this afternoon w/ conditions returning to VFR. Breezy again...w/ S gusts around 25 to 30 kt. Cold front pushes across the region this evening/tonight w/ shras and possible isold T. Sfc hi pres slowly builds in through the end of the work week...resulting in VFR/fair wx.
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&& .MARINE... Update...SCA flag for mouth of Ches Bay allowed to expire at 1000 PM this evening. A new round of SCA flags have been issued for the Bay, Sound, and Ern VA rivers beginning at noon on Wednesday and persisting into Wednesday night. Previous discussion... A trough is pushing through the nrn Mid-Atlantic this aftn resulting in southerly flow of 15-25kt, with gusts up to 30 kt over the lwr Bay and ocean. The trough lifts newd through New England tonight with the wind diminishing quickly through the evening and becoming sw 10-15kt overnight. Waves in the Bay are generally 3-4ft, with seas ranging from 4-5ft s, to 5-7ft n. Waves in the Bay subside to 2-3ft tonight. However, seas likely remain 4-6ft. SCAs continue for the Bay/lwr James/Sound through 7 pm, with flags for the ocean running through Wednesday night to capture lingering seas and the next southerly surge. A cold front is expected to push through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and then push off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late Wednesday night. The wind should shift to south Wednesday into Wednesday evening and increase to 15-25kt. It is likely that another round of SCAs will be necessary for the Bay/Sound/rivers, but will let the current headlines expire before re-issuing. The wind becomes westerly at 10- 15kt (minimal CAA) behind the front late Wednesday night into Thursday. A nw wind of 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean should prevail Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus and low pressure persists over Atlantic Canada. High pressure builds over the region Saturday night into Sunday. Seas subside from 3-4ft to 2-3ft, with ~2ft waves in the Bay. && .CLIMATE... Well above normal temperatures are forecast Wednesday. Some temperatures will approach record highs. Records: Richmond: 77 (1933) Norfolk: 79 (2001) Salisbury: 74 (1933) Elizabeth City: 80 (2001) Wallops Island: 74 (1991) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG/LSA NEAR TERM...SAM/LSA SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB/SAM MARINE...AJZ/BMD CLIMATE...

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