Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130325 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1025 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE. WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW 0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM. THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY. HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE...
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10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652- 654-656-658. LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650- 652-654. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ/LSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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