Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210741 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 341 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CLEARS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .MARINE... 8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING. MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED THAT TO 1 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634- 654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650- 652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS/LSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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