Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261938 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 2 PM...ALL WRNGS AND ADVSYS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. JUST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE. TEMPS WERE IN THE LWR TO MID 30S THIS AFTN...UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... BRISK NNE WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AS 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VLY TOWARDS THE AREA. NUMEROUS WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN W-SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING GENERAL MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND COOL PERIOD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH BUT WITH CLOUD COVER DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO REALLY PLUMMET. HIGHS FRI MAINLY 30-35. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POP CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM N TO S ON SATURDAY AS HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER FOR FRI/EARLY SAT, FRESH SNOWFALL AND ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SAT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FRI NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A ~1040MB HIGH SITUATED OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS O AROUND 20 DEGREES UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH WAA ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO UPPER 40S S. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AT THIS TIME 30-40% POPS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE -RA...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BEGIN AS -SN OR IP SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NE...TO THE MID 50S SW...ALTHOUGH WARMER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER. 12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30-35 RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 40S N...TO NEAR 50 S. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATER WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MAINLY -RA IS EXPECTED...WITH A POSSIBLE MIX AT THE ONSET OVER NW PORTIONS. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST THROUGH THIS AFTN. NNE WNDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STM WILL LINGER THROUGH TNGT/INTO FRI KEEPING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. KEPT BKN CIGS AVGG 15-25KFT INTO FRI. WINDSPEEDS RMN GUSTY TO 20-25 KT..ESP NR THE CST THIS AFTN...THEN DIMINISH FOR TNGT INTO FRI. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WEDGE SCENARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS ARND THROUGH A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO APPEND `AMD NOT SKED` AT KECG DUE TO COMMS ISSUE AT KECG ASOS. && .MARINE... UPDATE TO REPLACE THE GALE WARNING WITH AN SCA S OF CAPE CHARLES INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK SOUND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL VA BEACH AND THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CURRENT GALE/SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST RACES NE AWAY FROM THE AREA BASICALLY FOLLOWING THE GULF STREAM WALL TODAY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH 18Z. SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. SEAS QUICKLY RISE (5-7 FT ACROSS THE NRN WATERS...7-10 FT SRN WATERS) OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS N OF THE REGION TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST AND THE WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE SUB-SCA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS TIME-PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW MONDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.1 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.9 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH: * RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0". - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.0". - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 12.2" MAKING CURRENT MONTH #9 ALL-TIME. * NORFOLK: 6.0" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8". - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.6". - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 11.5" MAKING CURRENT MONTH #7 ALL-TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING): 2/28 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ _______ __________________________________________ RIC -1/1934 11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF 17/1934 18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1950 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 14/1934 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY): 2/27 2/28 _______ _______ RIC 23/1934 28/1934 ORF 24/1934 30/1934 SBY 24/1934 29/1934 ECG 33/1963 33/1934 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630- 631-635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB MARINE...AJZ/MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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