Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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039 FXUS61 KAKQ 251945 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 345 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure tracks north of the area tonight and Sunday, then slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure builds into the region from the north. Early evening clouds (and isolated pops across North Carolina) are expected to dissipate leading to a mstly clr night ahead. Patchy fog will be possible in areas away from the water given the cooler airmass and light onshore flow. Lows in the upr 50s - mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating. E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again. The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast. Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east. Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LOWS LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE OR QPF. JUST MORE OF A WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WED GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THU SUPPORTING CALMING WINDS AND WARMER HIGHS ON THU IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WED-SAT THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID-UPPER 50S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the region at 18Z with clouds at 2000 to 3000 ft. The cold front has moved well into the Carolinas and clouds will gradually lift and diminish through the aftn/evening. High pressure will build into the area during the overnight. OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following the passage of a cold front. && .MARINE...
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SCA WAS STARTED AT 1 PM IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS RESULTING FROM MIXING. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WIND THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES JUST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE NNE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KT SAT... PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN VA/NC COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN FORECAST TIMING OF SEAS BUILDING ACROSS THE NC WATERS LATER SAT MORNING WILL EXTEND THE SCA HEADLINE SOUTH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD, BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER BAY AND SRN COASTAL ZONES DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. FOR NEXT WEEK EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO PREDOMINANT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR SUN AFTN/MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLC REGIONS, WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST, SLIDING NE OFFSHORE MONDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS VEER TO THE SSW TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A THIRD COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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The James River at Bremo Bluff crested around 20 ft early this afternoon and is now falling. River Flood Warning continues until the stage falls below 19 ft which is expected tonight. See FLSAKQ for details. The rapid rise at Richmond Westham is well underway with the river rising almost one and a half feet per hour. Given these trends and coord with the RFC...decided to go ahead and issue a River Flood Warning for a stage expected to crest around 12.5 ft Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ for details.
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&& .CLIMATE... June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...JEF MARINE...JAO HYDROLOGY...MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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