Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230609 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 209 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lingers over the Mid Atlantic through Monday, then gradually moves offshore Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds in from the west for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Next batch of wrap around pcpn now beginning to take shape with the latest radar trends showing rain/drizzle beginning to fill back in and expand south across the northern half of the fa this evening. All model data suggests this southward trend continues through the overnight hours as the upper trof will close off as it settles over sern Va late tonight. Went ahead and increased pops to categorical/likely across Va west of the bay with likely/high chc elsewhere. The steady pcpn will likely wait until after midnite to reach southern areas. Also added areas of fog with the rain/drizzle. Don`t think vsbys get low enough for dense fog but low enough to include in both the land and marine forecasts. Lows only a few degrees away from the current readings of low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level low will continue to slowly wobble off of the mid- atlantic coast through the day, eventually sliding offshore by monday night. This will produce more in the way of sct to numerous showers on Monday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Showalter index numbers/LI values remain modestly/minimally unstable. Nevertheless, have maintained a slight chc for thunder inland as the upper cold pool pushes across. Temps once again a touch below normal. Look for Monday maxima to top out in the upper 60s/around 70 inland, with lower to middle 60s along the southeast coast and immediate coastal locations. Evening stabilization should allow for partial clearing inland, with any areas of showers to diminish quickly after sunset into Monday night, though pops linger a bit later into the night over the Eastern Shore. Pops drop off even further after midnight as the upper low continues to push farther off toward the New England coast into Tuesday morning. Remaining mild with early morning lows Tuesday morning in the lower-middle 50s, under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The Tuesday/Wednesday time frame will be characterized by gradually improving conditions across the region behind the departing upper low, as high pressure at the surface and aloft slowly builds across the region in its wake for the mid week period and beyond. While a gradually clearing sky/dry wx is anticipated inland (actually mostly sunny by afternoon in the piedmont), mostly cloudy conditions and some slight to low end chance pops continue along eastern third of the area. This is in association with one last upper disturbance rotating through behind the upper trough. Again, while surface-based instability looks to be minimal, Showalter numbers indicate some modest, mainly elevated, instability. Will therefore continue with thunder mention. Warmer on tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 coastal locations, low to mid 70s along the coast and mid 70s to near 80 degrees inland. Moderating/warming temperatures continues on Wednesday, as 1024+mb surface high pressure slides offshore, as upper ridging build east. Deep layered W-SW flow will bring increasing temps and moisture across the region, though with PW values on the order of 0.50 to 0.75", and with models continuing to trend down with modeled rain chances, will keep pops out for Wednesday. For the first time in a couple of weeks, temps trend back up above climo area-wide on Wednesday, with forecast maxima in the upper 70s to low 80s over coastal sections along the Eastern Shore, low to mid 80s southeast VA/NE NC coast, and mid to upper 80s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean through the long term periods as upper level ridging moves over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the ridge becomes more pronounced Fri through Sun, weak waves of energy/moisture are expected to stream across the wrn fringes of the ridge. QPF is being depicted each aftn/evening through Sat, however this appears to be overdone given lack of preferred dynamics and lack of definitive upper level features to aid lift for convective development to occur. Held onto slight chance POPs in far nw counties Thu aftn/evening and then slowly migrate them ewd Fri/Sat. Current thinking is that the end result will be high clouds streaming through the region rather than light rain showers with isolated thunder. Meanwhile, low pressure begins to develop over the Caribbean on Fri and is expected to drift twd a location off the FL/GA coast by Sun. Will maintain slight chance POPs for Sun/Sun night across Central VA due to pop-up showers developing on the mtns and also in ne NC since wraparound moisture could make it into this area during this timeframe. Overall, high temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal Thu-Sat. Highs generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s beaches). Low temps also running about 5 degrees above normal Thu-Sat nights. Cooler Sun in anticipation of more clouds with highs in the lower 80s inland and in the mid-upper 70s beaches. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Upper low pres will drop into se va and ne nc this morng, then lift e then ne off the Mid Atlc cst to off the NJ cst by Tue morng. At the same time, sfc low pres will linger just off the va/nc cst into this eveng before lifting ne. This will result in area of rain or drizzle affecting the taf sites thru much of today with IFR conditions expected all sites except SBY thru midday. Conditions will then gradually improve to VFR conditions at all sites late this aftn into this eveng, as sfc flow turns more n or nw and upr low slides offshr. OUTLOOK...With all of the moisture from previous day`s rains, if it clears out Mon night, it is concieveable that some fog could develop especially at KRIC which would have the best chance for winds becoming light. Otherwise...high pressure builds across the area for the rest of the week leading to a more late spring/early summer pattern across the region. Generally, VFR conditions would be expected unless patchy fog develops overnight.
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&& .MARINE... Sfc low pressure system that impacted the Mid Atlantic coast yesterday is now located off the New England coast this aftn with a frontal boundary extending down along the Southeast coast. A new sfc low is starting to develop invof the Carolinas and is expected to slowly track nne to just off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight into Mon evening...then into New England on Tue. Meanwhile, an upper level trough sits over the region through Mon before gradually sliding off the coast Mon night and tracking into New England on Tue. Winds generally n 10-15kt this aftn will become ne 15-20kt for the Bay/Sound/all coastal waters early Mon morning. Expect gusts to around 25kt coastal waters and mouth of the Bay during the morning. Seas currently 3-4ft srn waters/4-6ft nrn waters. Seas become 4-5ft all coastal waters by late this evening...build to 5-6ft Mon morning...then subside to 4-5ft Mon aftn. For srn Ches Bay, 2-3ft waves will build to 3-4ft Mon morning and then subside to 3ft in the aftn. For nrn Ches Bay, waves will average 2-3ft. SCA flags in effect for Sound, all Bay zones, and all coastal waters through various end times on Mon. Please refer to the Marine Weather Message (WBCMWWAKQ) for specific details. Wind speeds diminish Mon aftn as tightened pressure gradient shifts ewd beyond 20nm. A secondary increase in wly winds may be possible late Mon night into Tue morning for the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light as sfc high pressure starts to build into the region from the west, however speeds of 10-15kt should keep the aforementioned areas (and Currituck Sound) out of SCA flags attm. Conditions finally quiet down Tue through Fri. Winds will generally be s-sw aob 15kt. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...BMD/TMG

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