Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160757
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push out to sea this morning. Weak high
pressure builds over the area then slides off the coast for
later this morning into tonight. A secondary cold front will
drop through the region Sunday night bringing in cooler air for
the start of next week. A stronger cold front will cross the
area late Monday into Tuesday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...
Early this morning, a cold front was pushing SE of the CWA and
just offshore. Isolated showers behind the front were dropping
through extrm SE VA and into NE NC. Temps were ranging through
the 50s into the lower 60s.
The front will push out to sea this morning. Weak sfc high
pressure will move over the area before quickly shifting
offshore this evening (allowing winds to turn back to the
SW/SE/S). The sky will become sunny or mostly sunny by late this
morning. Still pleasant today with highs in the upper 60s/near
70s inland/Piedmont, and in the lower to mid 60s near the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Strong low pressure at the sfc and aloft tracks E
from Ontario to the Canadian Maritimes Sun through Mon, sending
a second, stronger cold front across into the area Sun night
into early Mon morning. Cloud cover will increase throughout the
day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a few
light showers along or just off the SE coast Sun evening into
early Mon morning, as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to
our south. Highs on Sun in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Cooler air
will begin to filter in behind the boundary, so low temps Sun
night will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s N and W, to the
mid to upper 40s SE VA and NE NC. Partly sunny, breezy/cooler
on Mon with widespread 20-25 mph wind gusts. Highs will range
through the 50s to near 60. There could be isolated showers
along the extrm SE VA/NE NC coast Mon night, as shortwave energy
moves across ern NC and offshore. Otherwise, mostly clear to
mostly cloudy with lows mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...
Tue looks to be the coolest day of the period with continued
breezy WNW winds and highs in the 50-55F range. Temps moderate
into the mid 50s to mid 60s (with continued dry wx) for Wed/Thu,
as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Still breezy out of the
WNW on Wed. Then, rain chances increase as we head into Fri/
Fri night, as a deepening low pressure system lifts toward the
area from the south. While things can change (and likely will
as it is near a week away), this looks like more of a stratiform
rain event, as opposed to showers/tstms. Ensemble (GEFS/EPS)
mean precipitation amounts are 0.50-1.00" across the FA at this
time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...
Some lingering MVFR CIGs with isolated to sctd showers will be
possible early this morning at PHF/ORF/ECG until the front
pushes off the coast. N winds behind the front will gust to
around 20 kt through early this morning at the TAF sites.
Winds then become highly variable (SW/SE/S) during this aftn
into tonight at 5-10 kt, as weak high pressure will slide to the
coast then offshore. Mainly VFR conditions expected into Sun
morning, but may have to watch for MVFR CIGs (isolated shower)
at ORF/ECG twd Sun morning with a weak trough.
Outlook: Isolated to sctd showers will be possible over SE
terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing
the region Sun night.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...
Weakening sfc cold front slowly dropping across the region as
expected this morning. Winds have veered around to the NNE and have
increased to 15-20 kt with gusts to ~25-30 kt in the lower bay.
Winds become NE . As weak CAA wanes and pressure gradient slackens,
expect winds quickly diminish in the next 2-3 hours. SCA headlines
run through 7AM, and we are still on track for them to be lowered at
this time. No headlines for the coastal waters, with seas mainly 2-3
ft.
Sfc high pressure settles across the region quickly this afternoon
and tonight, with winds diminishing to less than 10kt by late
morning, and 2-3 ft waves in the bay diminishing to 1-2 ft (or
less). With the weak pressure gradient, a light seabreeze develops
aob 10kt from mid to late afternoon, before veering to the SSW at 10-
15kt this evening into Sunday as the next low pressure system moves
from Ontario towards northern New England. CAMs and in-house wind
probs still indicating that a few gusts to ~20kt are expected in the
bay late tonight, but this looks brief enough and small enough in
scale that SCA flags still don`t appear necessary at this time.
Thereafter, expect Sub-SCA conditions persist through Sunday. W-SW
winds turn N-NW, increasing late Sunday night/Monday morning in
tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next frontal passage. Once
again, this surge is forecast to brief enough to hold off with any
headlines despite a few gusts to ~20kt (reasonable to think a brief
Marine Statement may be needed during this period). However, SCA
headlines are likely to be needed as early as Monday afternoon, but
especially Monday evening and late Monday night/ early Tuesday. A
strong cold front crosses the region during this period, with strong
cold air advection expected. EPS/GEFS both show 850mb temperatures
dropping to as low as -8C to -10C by 12Z Tuesday. Wind probs are low
for prolonged gale force gusts, but solid SCAs appear likely during
this timeframe. Winds slowly diminish Tuesday with SCA potentially
coming down Tuesday afternoon. Winds back to to W-SW winds late Tue
into Wed, with potential for a brief period of SCA conditions Tue
night in the lower bay and lower James River.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
ANZ630>634-638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RMM