Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201326 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 926 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB

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