Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220224 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 1024 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region tonight from the northwest and then drops across the area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, colder air arrives as Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic States Wednesday into Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday into the first part of the upcoming weekend. A series of low pressure systems is expected to pass northwest of the region Sunday into early next week and could bring unsettled conditions to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast updated to adjust timing of pcpn across SE areas tngt based off latest radar trends and hiRES guidance. Have Pops up to 50% there for the overnight hours. Previous Discussion... A weak frontal boundary remains stalled just south of the VA/NC border this aftn. Skies are mostly sunny south and partly to mostly cloudy north...except MD and most of VA Eastern Shore where conditions are still overcast. A quick flare up of aftn cumulus is occurring in far SW Piedmont, otherwise clouds will give way to mid-high level leeside cirrus around sunset this evening through the overnight hours. A cold front is still expected to drop down from the NW overnight. Although the front is not expected to arrive until Wed, there should be just enough weak shortwave energy out ahead of the front for light rain showers to develop near the temp/pressure gradient boundary... initially in the Richmond Metro vicinity after midnight and then along/south of the VA/NC border after 2-3 AM. Precip totals overnight should average 0.05 inches or less. Another generally mild night ahead with lows in the mid-upper 40s...except north of Richmond where lows should be in the upper 30s to around 40F with the front approaching from the NW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Any remnant rain showers are expected to track SE and away from the coast in the morning. Gusty N-NNW winds and colder air arrive behind the cold front during Wed. Expect an initial strong and gusty push in winds during the morning with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph inland/30-35 mph immediate coast. This trend is best seen in 12Z Hi-Res ARW model 3-hr winds as well as captured in various 12Z model cross sections. A downward trend in wind speeds/gusts is then anticipated during the aftn as conditions begin to stabilize with sfc high pressure building into the area and also as the pressure gradient relaxes. Gusts 20-25 mph inland/25-30 mph immediate coast. High temperature forecast could be tricky as colder temps/subsidence aloft in a well-mixed environment work against each other. Continue to only anticipate a 5-10 degree warm-up despite mostly sunny skies for most of the day. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s NE to low-mid 50s SW. Meanwhile, strong Canadian sfc high builds across the Great Lakes States Wed, into the ern Great Lakes Wed night, and finally dropping across the Mid Atlantic Region on Thu. Cold Wed night under mostly clear skies. Lows in the low-mid 20s most inland areas (upper 20s far SE VA/NE NC coastal areas). This is about 10 degrees (or roughly 1.5 std dev) below normal. Slightly cooler and continued dry conditions Thu/Thu night with highs in the upper 40s to around 50F inland /low-mid 40s immediate coast and MD/VA Eastern Shore and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s areawide. Sfc high slowly drifts ewd and elongates across the NC coastal plain Thu night and then slides offshore on Fri. Meanwhile, a warm front lifts north of the area during Fri and allows temperatures to rebound to 60-65F most inland areas (upper 50s to lower 60s beaches and MD/VA Eastern Shore). Overall conditions will be dry (best shower chances are well north along the warm front) with mid-high clouds streaming across the region in relatively flat upper level ridging overhead. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry and mild conditions to start off the weekend as offshore ridge keeps pcpn west of mts through at least 04Z Sun. Lows Fri night 45-50. Highs Saturday in the mid-upr 60s along the coast, lwr-mid 70s west of the Ches Bay. Moisture increases ahead of an approaching frontal boundary Saturday night. Low chc pops after midnight with lows in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries progged to track over the region Sunday. Key to any thunder chcs will be location of warm front, which is progged across the northern portions of the FA. GFS suggests best support for pcpn will be north of the boundary but will err on side of caution and keep likely pops across the north and west with chc pops south and east. Will also limit thunder chcs to the southern half of FA. Highs in the 60s north to lwr 70s south. Low slowly tracks towards the coast by 12Z Monday keeping chc to likely pops going Sunday night. Lows in the mid 40s north to lwr 50s south. Moisture lingers Monday/Tuesday as it gets trapped under high prs to the north along with weak disturbances moving east across the rgn. Chc pops with highs Monday from near 60 across the Eastern Shore to around 70 south. Lows in the 40s. Highs Tuesday in the 50s across the eastern shore to the upr 60s across the south. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front approaches from the northwest and passes through the TAF sites early Wednesday morning. Gusty north and northwest winds will follow on Wednesday. VFR conditions are expected though some light showers will be possible a few hours before sunrise far southern portions. Clouds will clear out toward midday Wednesday. OUTLOOK...High pressure settles over the area Thursday. The high then slides offshore Friday and settles off the Southeast coast by Saturday. Low pressure over the Central Plains States Friday will move slowly to the east and will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday. && .MARINE... No marine concerns this evening as weak low pressure moves east across the Carolinas resulting in a light onshore flow. Concern comes after 10Z as a rather strong CAA surge is progged behind yet another high pressure system builds south from Canada. SCA`s already up for this surge. However, latest data suggests the strong pressure rises ahead of the high results in a 3-6 hour period (btwn 10-18Z) of gusts aoa 35 KTS across the southern Ches and mouth of the Bay and coastal waters. Gusts aoa 40 KTS possible invof the CBBT. Thus, after coord with PHL, have upgraded to gale warning for these areas. Strong SCA`s across the middle Ches Bay/Currituck Sound. Waves (3-5 ft)/seas (5-7 FT) build rather quick to the increased winds. Northwest slowly diminish to 15-25 knots Wednesday afternoon. The high builds over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, with ongoing SCA conditions continuing in the Bay/Sound/Coastal waters with winds of 15-25 knots. Seas subside to 3-5 feet by late Wednesday night. Waves 2-4 feet. Improving conditions Thursday as high pressure builds across the waters Thursday. Return flow expected Friday as high pressure slides offshore. The next front pushes across the waters early next week. && .EQUIPMENT... Radar KDOX remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter. Part is on order and estimated (though possibly unstable) return to service is Wednesday, March 22nd. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631-633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MPR EQUIPMENT...

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