Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300554 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 154 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ANOTHER WARM/MILD NIGHT IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING STILL HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEG READINGS NEAR THE COAST AND URBAN AREAS. STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT (LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY) WILL PRODUCE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN ALREADY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS ~2 INCHES). WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES...BUT A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY. SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN VA. OTHERWISE...MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY... UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO 10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON. FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT) PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME. WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS PSBL. OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAM/LSA MARINE...LKB

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