Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280331 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1131 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATE OVER THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SKC AND QUIET WX OVR THE FA SO FAR THIS EVE. WKNG CDFNT PUSHING TWD THE FA FM THE NNW. SCT CONVECTION INVOF FNT CONTG TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE SE. XPCG CLR-PC CONDS OVRNGT. DEWPTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE M60S JUST ABT EVERYWHERE...NOT XPCG LO TEMPS DOWN TO LAST NGTS/EARLY MRNGS LVLS. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE M/U60S. WILL CONT MENTION OF PATCHY FG ACRS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC (SIMILAR TO WHERE FG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MRNG). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY... BECOMING STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME (THU/FRI). SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS RELATIVELY FLAT (ALMOST WESTERLY)...WEAK IMPULSES OF MOISTURE/ENERGY COULD PASS THROUGH IT AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS EITHER TOO PROGRESSIVE OR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF GENERATION THU/FRI AFTNS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR LIFT IN THIS WX PATTERN...OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL (NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT) AND LIMITED TO AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. MEANWHILE...A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE REGION WILL BECOME WARM- SECTORED. ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST YET DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE/LIFT PRESENT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 80S ON FRI DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND NE STATES. VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON/LABOR DAY...WITH GENLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUN...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ON MON (MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S) AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENS INTO A SFC TROUGH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S. SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AND WILL CARRY 40% POPS ALL ZONES (MAINLY JUST 20% SUN AFTN/EVENING). WILL FAVOR THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TUE/WED...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT...MAKING MUCH OF TUE MAINLY DRY AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS. WILL HAVE 20-30% POPS BY LATE AFTN AND THEN HAVE 30% CHC POPS ALL AREAS TUE EVENING INTO EARLY WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE N WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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REMOVED IFR FROM SBY TAF. TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR CONTINUES ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT LIKELY TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AFTER 03Z. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT MAY ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO RISE AT KSBY LATE TONIGHT...BUT HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF IFR VISIBILITY PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU...WITH WINDS BCMG NORTHERLY 10 KT OR LESS. COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SOUTH/SE OF KRIC FOR ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGION FRI/SAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AM FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 06-12Z BOTH FRI/SAT.
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&& .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NNE WELL OFF THE SE COAST. SWELL PERIODS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTN TO 13-15 SEC AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THU. N/NE WINDS AVG 5-10 KT MOST AREAS. COMBO OF CRISTOBAL TRACKING NNE TONIGHT/THU AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING S ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS ON THU...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WINDS MUCH ABOVE 15 KT SO HAVE NOT RAISED AND SCA HEADLINES OTHER THAN THOSE ON THE COASTAL WATERS. CONCERNING THE COASTAL WATERS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA AND SCHS ADVISORIES THROUGH THU AFTN FOR SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT OVERNIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING SLOWLY DURING THE DAY THU. MAY NEED TO EXTEND NORTHERN WATERS INTO TUE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO DO THAT NOW. A TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE WINDS TO MOSTLY S OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE COAST. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN HIGH ON THU...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE BY AFTN DUE TO SUBSIDING SEAS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...LSA/WRS MARINE...LKB

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