Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210920 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 420 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SWINGS THROUGH THE NE CONUS AND JUST NORTH OF THE FA. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO CAA PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 MPH WITH UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. COOLER AIR SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40 NW TO THE LOW-MID 40S SE...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S (NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S. HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY U40S-L50S. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CDFNT CLEARS THE CST EARLY THIS MRNG...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KT) INTO THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.
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&& .MARINE...
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CDFNT CLEARS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA CONTG INTO THIS AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO. SPEEDS BEGIN TO WANE THIS AFTN...CONT INTO TNGT. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT INTO THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT... MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM THE SW. TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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