Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140504 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 104 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will remain stalled across North Carolina this evening...then will push back north late tonight into Monday as a wave of low pressure moves along the boundary. Additional areas of low pressure will move along the front into Tuesday night...with high pressure finally building north of the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Latest analysis indicating a lingering and fairly weak cold front stalled across the SE coast of NC in the WSW flow aloft. Light showers have dissipated across SE VA/NE NC, with a mild and humid evening occurring across the area. Temperatures range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will not drop much overnight with lows primarily in the mid 60s to low 70s. Later tonight, moisture slowly begins to push back N, though models are not as aggressive with this as they had been. Have PoPs ramping back up to 30-40% after 09Z for far srn VA/NE NC, but QPF amounts will be minimal, genly less than 0.10". Looks like a weak wedge setup on Mon, at least for much of the day as the front slowly lifts N into the region. Will carry high chc to likely PoPs (highest S), with highs averaging in the mid 80s SE to around 80 F NW (potentially cooler in the far W/NW if precip remains widespread through the aftn). && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Will linger high chc to likely PoPs Mon evening, dropping to 20-40% overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s. For Tue/Wed, upper level shortwave energy moves from the Great Lakes Tue morning to off the New England coast Tue night, allowing a weak upper ridge axis to develop across the Great Lakes on Wed. Tropical storm Gert progged by all models (and NHC/TPC) to remain well off the coast with no impacts to the east coast other than the potential for an elevated rip current threat. Overall forcing over the local area looks minimal with a weak pressure gradient, but there will still be lingering moisture in vicinity of a weak boundary stalled across the Carolinas. The 12Z NAM is a little more aggressive at keeping moisture farther N on Tue than the 00Z GFS/ECMWF. In general, Tue looks a little more cloudy with higher precip chances than Wed and will have 40-50% chances Tue and 30-40% PoPs across the south and west with 20% to the N/NE for Wed. This will be mainly diurnal/aftn and evening showers/tstms. Skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs into the mid to upper 80s inland and 80-85 F near the coast both days with lows in the mid-upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Frontal boundary will be well S of the area for Wed night thru Thu, as weak sfc high pressure slides acrs the area then off the coast. Will have mainly dry conditions for Wed night, then have slgt chc to chc (20-30%) Pops for Thu for mainly diurnal showers or storms over WNW counties. A cold front will then approach fm the west during Fri, then slowly crosses the region Fri night and Sat. A secondary boundary may linger over ern/sern counties Sat night and Sun. Will have 30-40% Pops for Fri and Fri night, and 15-30% Pops for Sat thru Sun. Highs will range fm the mid 80s to around 90 Thu and Fri, and in the mid to upper 80s Sat and Sun. Lows will range fm the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A stationary front remains near the NC coast as of 00z, with weak high pressure across the Ern Great Lakes and Nrn Mid- Atlantic. Partial clearing has occurred from RIC-SBY, and cigs have lifted to ~8kft for ORF/PHF/ECG. The front will gradually lift nwd overnight resulting in lowering cigs. MVFR cigs are expected to develop at ECG toward 08z, with IFR possible around 12z. Cigs at PHF/ORF are expected to fall to ~4kft, with periodic MVFR possible late tonight into Monday morning. Cigs at RIC/SBY should generally fall to 6-10kft. Increasing and lowering clouds are expected to inhibit fog at SBY. Scattered showers are expected to develop over SE VA/NE NC late tonight into Monday morning, with scattered showers/tstms by aftn across the region. Cigs are expected to gradually lift Monday aftn, but brief IFR conditions are possible in heavy rain. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday as the boundary remains over the region. Conditions gradually improve Wednesday/Thursday, with a chc of showers/tstms returning Friday. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Tue. Late this aftn, a cold front has dropped S of the NE NC waters, while sfc high pressure was building over the ern Great Lakes. Winds were generally NNE 5 to 10 kt over the waters. That frontal boundary will lift back N into at least extrm SE VA/NE NC for very late tonight into Tue morning, then push S of the area again during Wed. Also, tropical storm Gert is fcst to remain well east of the east coast while it tracks NNE Mon thru Tue. NE winds arnd 10 or less will become E tonight, then ESE during Mon, then ENE during Tue. That system will cause Seas to build to possible 3 to 4 ft during this time. && .CLIMATE... The 6.56" that SBY recorded Sat Aug 12th ranks as the 5th highest calendar date precipitation total on record (for any date of the year). The highest is 8.90" on August 30, 1936. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...

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