Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 250821
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
421 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis indicating the frontal boundary now pushing south
of the CWA into central NC, with a light N/NE flow prevailing.
Some isolated showers remain over ne NC and will keep this in the
forecast through 12Z, mainly just cloudy to mostly cloudy
elsewhere with minimal chance for rain. Given the widespread cloud
cover, removed fog mention from the forecast (could see some
patchy fog briefly develop around sunrise acrs the north though
doubt this would become an issue). Otherwise, for today, expect a
slow clearing trend through the day. Bufkit soundings and the
current location where the widespread stratus gives way to clear
skies (over Delaware) suggest mostly sunny skies first reach into
our MD and eastern shore zones later this morning, while mostly
cloudy conditions prevail through at least 18Z if not 21Z over
southern VA and ne NC. Will maintain a slight chc for aftn tstms
over far southern VA and interior ne NC where some minimal CAPES
to ~500 J/Kg persist. High temperatures today will be greatly
affected by the sky cover and the N/NE flow. Have gone with highs
mainly ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest along the
immediate coast. Could be a scenario where temperatures remain
rather cool through 18Z with the clouds (in lower-mid 70s) then
rise several degrees late in the aftn as skies clear out. For
tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the far
south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas overnight.
Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure ridges SSW
from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s most
areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds linger
today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas has
little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.
Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.
Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolina`s during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front will push s of the waters and down thru the Carolina`s
during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds 10 to 20 kt to
develop ovr the area. Waves will bld to 2 to 3 ft ovr the Ches Bay
and Seas will bld to 3 to 4 ft ovr the cstl waters. Winds will
diminish on Sun, as the high blds acrs the area, then lee
troughiness will allow for the winds to turn s-sw on Mon into
Tue before the next cold front passes through Tue Night into Wed
morng. Overall, the expectation is that conditions will remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
A River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo Bluff remains
in effect, with the water level now rising quickly and expected to
rise above flood stage later this morning. Holding off on Richmond
Westham for now, as the latest guidance has them approaching but
not quite exceeding flood stage late tonight/early Sunday morning.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").