Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030801 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN VA/NE NC...WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. FOR TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER NE NC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BUT HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR H85 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGS. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH. PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12 XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG. XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT CU FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND. && .MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING. WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD. MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS. IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR

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