Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260715 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 315 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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INITIAL AREA OF RA HAS MOVED OFF THE CST...HWVR A SECOND AREA IS MOVING OUT OF THE MTNS THROUGH SW VA. WK SFC LO PRES (ALG W/ ACCOMPANYING S/W ALOFT) WILL BE TRACKING E ACRS NC THIS MRNG...PUSHING AN AREA OF RA THROUGH MNLY CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MRNG. WILL CARRY 60-80% FOR THOSE AREAS...W/ MUCH LWR POPS ACRS FAR NRN TIER OF FA. THE LO WILL SHIFT OFF THE CST THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN RA TAPERING OFF FM NNW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTN. TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY IN THE M/U50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY NEXT SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCTD AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES (EXCEPT MAYBE SBY) FM ARND 08Z-17Z TODAY...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM EXTRM SW VA SSE INTO SC. SO...WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO LWR MVFR CIGS AT RIC...SBY...ORF...AND PHF DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FM N TO S THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES MOVES FARTHER AWAY TO THE SSE AND SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NNW. OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NW. && .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVE WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING AROUND TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY SKIRTS OUT TO SEA OFF THE NC COAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10-15 KT NORTH AND 15-20 KT SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO BACKS MORE TO THE NE-N. A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER CHES BAY OVERNIGHT THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND FROM LATE SUN MORN THRU SUN EVE. WAVES BUILD TO 3 FT ACROSS THE LOWER BAY. NE WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT AS WELL. THEREFORE...AN SCA FOR ANZ658 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A BRIEF TIME SUN AFTN/EVE. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT...BEFORE POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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