Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151942 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 342 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary frontal boundary will remain over southeast Virginia today and drop back south into North Carolina on Wednesday. The next cold front affects the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal bndry having pushed a little N/NW over the past few hrs, now stretched across SE/eastern VA. With NE NC and SE VA zones now in the warm sector, skies have partially cleared out there. It remains mainly overcast farther NW, with fairly widespread showers affecting areas NW of Richmond. Hurricane Gert remains spinning well off the Carolina coast. Aloft, WSW flow prevails with an elongated shortwave stretching all the back through western TN. For the rest of today, have adjusted PoPs down across the S/SE through 18Z with mainly partly sunny skies and very warm/humid conditions (dew pts 75 to 80 F). Will keep chc to likely PoPs going across the N. With the approaching upper level trough and RRQ forcing from upper level jet streak located well to our N, anticipate PoPs increasing to likely with tstms, especially from about 19Z-22Z. Differential heating bndry will only help this develop as well, and could lead to some stronger tstms (primarily a wind threat) across the SE where ML Capes values will rise to 1500 J/Kg and be co-located with ~ 30 kt of effective shear. Moderate to locally heavy rain can be expected in any storm and will continue mention of this and localized flooding in the HWO. High temps today in the upper 80s to near 90 F SE to the low 80s N/NW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... For tonight/Wed, chances of rain gradually diminish, though will maintain chc PoPs far S (mainly from the VA/NC border S) on Wed as the frontal boundary lingers not too far S and weak high pressure builds in from the N. Partly sunny Wed w/ highs upper 80s/around 90F inland...80-85F near the coast. Just a 20-30% chance for aftn tstms Thu/highest west of I-95 across the Piedmont for any storms developing along the mtns that would drift east late in the aftn. Otherwise partly- mostly sunny with highs upper 80s/around 90F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc high pressure will slide farther off the New England coast Thu night. A cold front will approach fm the west late Fri, then slowly drops acrs the area Fri night thru Sun. High pressure will build into and over the region Sun night and Mon. Will have 15-30% Pops over the nrn and wrn counties for Thu night, then 20-40% Pops for Fri thru Sun. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Fri, and mainly in the mid to upper 80s Sat, Sun and Mon. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s Thu night, in the upper 60s to mid 70s Fri night, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat night and Sun night. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep tropical moisture in place ahead of the approaching cold front. Combo of the moisture and daytime heating is sparking numerous shwrs/tstms with IFR/MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys in heavy downpours. This scenario to continue through 00Z. First at RIC/SBY where tempos have been used. Convection progged a few hours later across sern TAF sites but can expect pop up convection just about at any time. Front crosses region ending the convection tonight. In its wake, abundant moisture will probably end up with a stratus deck rather than IFR VSBYS some of the high res data indicates. Thus, have trended the forecasts with more ST than FG. Winds shift to the N-NE with a slow decrease in cloudiness by the end of the forecast period. Outlook: Conditions are expected to improve later Thursday as high pressure builds back into the region. A cold front approaches the region Friday bringing another chance for showers / thunderstorms into the weekend. && .MARINE...
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Late this aftn, Hurricance Gert was located well off the NC coast and tracking NNE at around 10 mph. Also, a frontal boundary was laying acrs the area fm west to east. Winds were generally SE 5 to 15 kt outside of any stronger gusts fm tstms. Seas will build fm 3 to 4 ft to as high as 5 to 7 ft tonight into early Wed morning, due to increasing long period (SE) swells fm Gert. Otherwise, Gert will move well out into the Atlc late tonight into Wed night, with sfc high pressure building fm the ern Great Lakes twd New England. The high will slide off the coast Thu aftn into Thu night. A cold front will approach fm the west late Fri. Wind speeds will generally be around 10 kt or less thru Thu, then generally 10 to 15 kt over the area on Fri. Given sharp increase in long period swell (10-12 seconds, will have High Rip risk over southern beaches today...and Moderate Rip across the north. Will have at least Moderate Risk on Wed.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG

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