Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181730 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1230 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance moves across the area this afternoon. High pressure then builds in from the west tonight and settles over the area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday night as another front moves in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers and tstrms continue to develop in association with the upr level low as it crosse the area this afternoon. Thunder reported as far west as PTB with even some small hail reported in SFK. Updated grids to reflect these current trends with the bulk of activity to move east by 21Z. Adjusted temps as well with readings apprchg 70 across NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry/mostly clear tonight and Thu as sfc high pressure settles over the area. Lows tonight in the mid/upr 30s inland to the lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. Next system approaches from the W/SW Thu night/Fri, with the latest guidance slowing down the onset of pcpn until daytime Fri. Still looks like enough of a good overrunning scenario to maintain likely POPS all areas for Fri. Highs in the low/mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Above normal temps will continue to dominate the extended period acrs the area. A warm front and associated low pressure will lift NE or E of the area Fri night, with weak high pressure building over the region for Sat into Sat evening. Showers will be exiting NE or E of the CWA Fri night, with dry wx for Sat. Sun into early Tue, strong upper low pressure will lift fm the srn Plains/lower MS valley northeast into ern OH/wrn PA. This will result in waves of moisture/strong lift up into the region during this period. So, have gone with likely POPs everywhere, esply Sun aftn into Mon evening. Pcpn chances decrease fm SSW to NNE Mon night into Tue morning, as low pressure moves away to the NNE. Dry wx should return for Tue aftn/evening. Max temps will range fm the lower 50s to the lower 60s, with lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Shwrs and even a few rumbles of thunder continue to move east across the eastern half of the fa this afternoon. Thus, added a TEMPO group for shwrs at PHF/ORF/ECG for the next 1-3 hours. Appears pcpn threat is over at RIC/SBY. Data also suggests a few hours of gusty NM winds behind the quick moving s/w along with a rapid decrease in cloudiness. Expect mainly SKC after 00Z as high pressure moves in from the west. Outlook: MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible late Thursday and into Friday as the next low pressure system approaches the region. Dry weather returns for Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... A sfc cold front is located across cntrl VA early this morning and is expected to cross the waters from nw to se after sunrise... exiting the NE NC coast by mid-late morning. Sw winds generally 10-15kt Bay/Ocean/Sound with gusts around 20kt over coastal waters. Cooler post-frontal air is expected to arrive around mid-late morning...resulting in a more uniform increase in nw winds rather than a typical surge over the waters. Speeds still generally aob 15kt with gusts around 20kt on coastal waters. Seas 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. Not much change to the overall weather pattern/forecast through Sun. Sfc high pressure builds in from the west tonight and nw-n winds will gradually diminish to 10kt or less by Thu morning. High pressure then resides over the waters through Thu night with light and variable winds anticipated Thu aftn through Thu night. Seas 2-3ft tonight through Thu...building to 2-4ft due to nly swell from the slowly departing Wed system (despite being far enough offshore to have no other significant impacts to the marine forecast). Waves 1-2ft. Sfc high gets pushed offshore Fri morning as an upper low swings through the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic regions during Fri. Winds become se-s aob 10kt. A sfc low is anticipated to develop along a warm frontal boundary associated with this feature and then develop into a coastal low off the far SE VA/NE NC coast late Fri night. The coastal low may linger just off the Cape Hatteras coast on Sat with weak high pressure building nw of the area during the day. Winds become more n-ne Sat/Sat night with speeds no higher than 10kt as the coastal low develops just south of the local marine area. The 2-4ft seas persist Fri into Sat night with a brief lull of 2-3ft seas during the day on Sat. Waves continue at 1-2ft through Sat. Meanwhile, a more vigorous low pressure system exits the Four Corners Region and swings across TX/OK and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sun. A warm front extending ewd from this low will be linked with the coastal low...eventually lifting the warm front north into the area as the sfc low deepens and becomes negatively-tilted. The pressure gradient tightens in response to the incoming sfc low and winds become more onshore/ely with speeds increasing to 10-15kt. Seas expected to build to 3-5ft late in the day; waves building to 2-3ft within the same timeframe. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD

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