Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282235 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 635 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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DRY/LIGHT SSW FLOW TO CALM CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST. TSCTNS SHOW HIGH/MID LEVEL CLDNS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THRU THE NIGHT. MILD WITH LOWS IN THE M50S- L60S ALONG WITH A S-SW WIND FLOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA WED AFTRN AND EVENING...EXITING OFF THE COAST LATE WED NIGHT. AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AHEAD OF THE BNDRY WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF PCPN EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS (SCT SHWRS PSBL AFTR 15Z ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS). ENUF HEATING SEEN FOR TMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S (LWR 80S ACROSS NE NC) BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES. KEY TO THE WED POP FORECAST WILL BE WHETHER PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK S/W PROGGED TO SCOOT NE ALONG THE BNDRY LATE IN THE AFTRN / ERLY EVENING. DATA SUGGESTS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF POST FRNTL RAIN GENERALLY SE HALF OF FA. EXPECT TMPS TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 50S BEHIND FROPA AND ONCE PCPN STARTS. XTREME SERN VA / NE NC REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH 21Z. QPF TO AVG ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT UP TO ONE THIRD INCH ACROSS SERN SCTNS OF FA. FRNT SLOWS ITS SERN MOVMNT WED EVE THEN STALLS IVOF GULF STREAM LATE WED NIGHT. PCPN WILL BE SLOW TO END GIVEN A SLOWER MOVEMNT SO EXPECT PCPN TO CONT MOST OF THE NIGHT COASTAL AREAS (LIKELY POPS S & E OF A RZZ-FKN-ORF LINE)...ENDING AFTR MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE BAY. CAA THEN FOLLOWS ALONG WITH DCRG CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS RANGE FROM THE L-M40S PIEDMONT TO M-U50S SERN CSTL AREAS. WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THU AND THU NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER. HIGHS THURS IN THE L-M60S. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S XCPT L50S SERN CSTL AREAS. GFS/ECMWF COMING TOGETHER WRT NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW. POTENT S/W DIVES SE FROM THE GT LAKES REGION FRI. NAM WEAKER. TRAILING COLD FRNT AS WELL AS ANY SPRT FOR PCPN WITH THIS FTR STAYS NW OF FA THRU 00Z SAT. FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT MSTLY SUNNY WITH SCT-BKN SC DVLPNG IN THE AFTRN. HIGHS 60-65. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE WHILE INTENSIFYING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 28/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHC POPS (30-50%) WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A RATHER STRONG GUSTY NW WIND TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE FOLLOWING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NRN AND WRN PORTIONS DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ANY AREAS OF RAIN. CAA SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30-35 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MIXING AND DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH AGAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH 60-65 BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. S-SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WED MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. && .MARINE... A SSW WIND AVERAGING 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AND CROSSES THE COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NNW. LOW-LEVEL CAA IS RATHER WEAK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASED WIND SPEEDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE A FLAG AT THIS POINT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LOW END-GALE CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...AJZ

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