Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300534 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 134 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THE RATHER WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LWR EASTERN SHORE BACK INTO WESTERN VA. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING, SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DISSIPATED QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT W/LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT THAT HAVE RECEIVED (LOCALLY HVY) RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL AGAIN FIND SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, SO HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION IN ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES LATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE PRIMARY TREND AMONGST 12Z/29 NUMERICAL MODELS IS AN OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH RESPECT TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR PERIOD OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE. CONTINUITY WILL BE MAINTAINED SATURDAY WITH POPS AOB 10% AS THERE IS LITTLE FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DRIFT INTO N/NW PORTIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A 30-50% POP IS FORECAST FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...TO THE 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. GFS/ECMWF EACH INDICATE A PRE-FRONTAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND THE GFS ADDITIONALLY DEPICTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN MID- ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE A WARM/HUMID UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30% OVER FAR SE PORTIONS...TO 40-50% OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. SKY CONDITION SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S N/NW...TO THE LOW/MID 80S SE...AND LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY WED MORNING. EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ALTHOUGH MON APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WED AFTN THROUGH THU AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY THU NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ANYWHERE FROM THE SE COAST TO MOVING THE CAPE HATTERAS COASTLINE FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES AND HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN THE FAR EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST MORE TWD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN AREA OF THE FA. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S DURING THE MORE RAINY PERIODS TUE/WED WITH A WARM-UP INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK (ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES). LOWS MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S (ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER AT THE BEACHES OVERNIGHT). && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL MSTR NOTED ACROSS THE AREA ERLY THIS MORNING. ST DVLPNG ACROSS THE DELMARVA WHICH WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH SBY`S CIG/VSBY THRU SUNRISE. OTW...MODELS CONT TO FCST PTCHY FOG BUT ELECTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF RIC/PHF/ECG/ORF SINCE IT DID NOT RAIN YSTRDY. PCPN CHCS RTHR LOW FOR REST OF FCST PRD WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CU XPCTD DURNG THE DAYLIGHT HRS. S WINDS AOB 10 KTS. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION XPCTD MON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. && .MARINE... A DIURNAL INCREASE IN ONSHORE ELY WINDS HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTN WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE ERN VA RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES MORE SSE. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WINDS REMAIN SSE WITH AFTN/EARLY EVENING SURGES IN SPEEDS BUT WILL THEY WILL STAY WITHIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS (I.E. GENERALLY AOB 15KT/SEAS 2-3FT/WAVES 1-2FT BUT UP TO 2-3FT DURING SURGES). SEAS WILL REACH UP TO 4FT OUT NEAR 20NM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL FLOW WEAKENS MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING NE FLOW BY MID WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD

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