Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291927 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls north of the region late tonight through midweek. Meanwhile, weak low pressure tracks across North Carolina tonight and off the Outer Banks Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Latest surface analysis places weak low pressure now well off the Delmarva coast, with associated sfc warm front lifting across the Delmarva at 19z. To the west, a slow moving cold front crossing the central Appalachians from the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Aloft, deep occluded cyclone continues to spin over the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario, with the associated surface cold front extending from the Great Lakes back into the Central Plains. Latest GOES-16 Low to mid level WV imagery showing increasing moisture pushing across the area from central NC, with a deepening CU field across the lower Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Southern half of the area is largely capped, but have noted a few isolated showers/storms as expected along the E VA coast in association with sea/bay-breeze. Therefore have a 20% POP along and east of I-95 for the late aftn hours. Sky cover averages partly to mostly cloudy for the late afternoon hours, with a lull in precipitation still expected early in the evening. However, expect showers to re-develop by mid to late evening, owing to an area of weak low pressure lifting across central NC toward SE VA/NE NC after 00z/8pm EDT tonight w/associated shortwave energy pushing across the southern third of the area within WSW flow aloft. Forecast PoPs area generally 20-40% across southern/SE VA into NE NC late tonight, with a narrow area of likely POP installed along and north of the Albemarle Sound. Thunder mention has been maintained overnight due to the presence of some mid-level instability. Becoming mostly cloudy overnight with lows ranging through the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak/diffuse sfc cold front becomes aligned parallel to W-SW flow aloft Tuesday, stalling immediately N-NW of the region. Meanwhile, the aforementioned broad surface low pushes off the Northern Outer Banks Tuesday morning, with a lull in pcpn once again anticipated for much of the morning/early afternoon. Another period of isolated to widely sct showers and T-Storms is anticipated on Tuesday. However, areal coverage will be confined primarily to the SE CWA. Model consensus indicates that forcing will be a bit more muted across the local area, with stronger shortwave pushing across SW to NE across Eastern NC Tuesday, just southeast of the local area. Therefore, POP remains in 20-40% range over far SE VA/NE NC, and 20-30% for the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore. Highs Tuesday range from the mid 70s to around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland, after morning lows ranging through the 60s. There will be little change in conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday. Good model agreement exists that deep upper trough over Ontario/Upper Great Lakes sharpens Tuesday night and Wednesday. However, there remains a lack of any trigger for convective development during this period with mid-level flow becoming downslope by afternoon. Therefore , have again capped pops at no higher than slight chance Tuesday night, and mainly dry (except far SE) on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night range through the 60s, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 70s/around 80 at the coast to the mid-upper 80s inland. Mid-level trough axis will shunt surface cold front across the area Wednesday night. Given later timing, have maintained only a slight chc for showers and storms for now. Post-frontal W-NW flow and surface high pressure building from the west should combine to yield a dry forecast on Thursday. After early morning lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, look for highs thursday in the low to mid 80s inland...mid to upper 70s Lower Eastern Shore and along area beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another unsettled period ahead as the models show a frontal boundary stalling across the region next weekend with several waves of low pressure moving along it. This combined with upr level energy and a good low level moisture feed results in chc pops Late Friday through Sunday night, except likely Sat afternoon and evening as that seems to be the time frame of the most significant low. Data suggests locally heavy downpours with another widespread 1-2 inch rainfall psbl. Highs 80-85. Lows mid-upr 60s. Latest trends show the system moving offshore Mon with weak high pressure building into the region. Kept slght chc pops for now until better confidence of removing pops. Cooler with highs 75-80. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 17z...A warm front was lifting northeast through the Maryland Eastern Shore. A weak cold front will move through this evening. Another weak cold front will cross the area from northwest to southeast Tuesday evening with a stronger front coming through on Wednesday night. In the wake of the clearing of stratus...cumulus was developing across the area. Winds from the west and northwest will shift back to easterly toward evening. With onshore flow...another round of MVFR/IFR stratus and some fog will likely develop overnight and slowly improve mid to late morning Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly late day and evening thunderstorms are expected Tuesday with rather isolated activity late Wednesday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday. Chances for convection return Friday afternoon and become a likelihood on Saturday afternoon. Patchy fog or stratus is possible each morning within a few hours of sunrise. && .MARINE... No headlines expected despite a number of wind shifts this week. A weakening cold front crosses the area tonight with S-SE winds averaging 10-15 kts behind it. Seas 2-4 ft, highest off the Md coast. The front washes out along the coast Tuesday as another weakening front approaches from the west. Winds generally S-SW at 10 kts or less. The front pushes just offshore late Tuesday night as flow becomes west to northwest at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 ft. The next cold front crosses the waters Wed night. Only weak CAA progged behind it resulting in continued sub-SCA conditions. High pressure builds over the waters for the end of the work week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM

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