Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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229 FXUS61 KAKQ 260812 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Maria will track northward off the North Carolina coast while gradually weakening today through Wednesday. Maria will then push east northeast and out to sea Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure will build into the region later Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Early this morning, Hurricane Maria was located about 225 miles SE of HAT moving north at 7 mph. Latest radar showed a few bands of light showers well ahead of Maria, rotating onshore acrs portions of SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, NE winds were spreading low level moisture and stratus (3-10 kft) into much of the CWA. Maria will continue to push N during today, and perhaps slightly W of due N, as an upper low drops sewd acrs FL. Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result in 20-40% PoPs along and E of I-95. QPF will be minimal for most areas, with highest amts over extrm SE VA and NE NC where highest PoPs are fcst. Highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Maria reaches about 160mi ESE of Cape Hatteras by 00z Wed, around 150 miles E of Cape Hatteras by 12z Wed, and then 140-180 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras by 00z Thu, as some spread remains in the guidance. NHC has Maria weakening to a tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will result in minimal rainfall acrs SE VA/NE NC (and coastal MD to a lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less, with the highest amts over extrm SE VA and NE NC. There is now a good possibility for strong wind gusts south of Cape Charles on the coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from ORF/VA Beach to the Currituck County beaches (including the Currituck Sound). Therefore, we have upgraded Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Cape Charles Light to the VA/NC border (656). High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will also occur along the coast. Will maintain PoPs of 20-40% east of I-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE NC Tue night/Wed), with slight chc PoPs into the Piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around Norfolk/VA Beach southward into coastal NE NC. The biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion along/near the coast. Highs on Wed will range fm the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast, to the mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By 12z Thu, Maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras, then pushing well out to sea by late in the day. Will carry lingering slight chc PoPs (~20%) along the coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing clouds through the day. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast, to the lower to mid 80s inland.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted upper trough swings across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort Maria away from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s Thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front and the best chance for any showers will be over the Delmarva. By Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across New England and down the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the low. to mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect MVFR/IFR cigs for mainly SBY, ORF, PHF, and ECG today into tonight, due to increasing NE winds and low level moisture in advance of Maria. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs at RIC mainly into this aftn. Best chc for showers will be over ECG and ORF. Outlook: Increasing moisture from Maria will result in a continued 20-40% chc for showers tonight thru Wed. Locally stronger wind speeds/gusts are expected at ORF/ECG tonight and Wed. A cold front approaches fm the NW Thu, and pushes Maria farther out to sea Thu night into Fri. && .MARINE... Given the track of Maria and the broadening wind field, am expecting that some tropical storm force conditions (especially in gusts) will occur over the coastal waters south of the VA/NC border starting as early as early Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday as Maria moves east. Still a little more uncertainty between Cape Charles and the VA/NC border and as such have opted to maintain the tropical storm watch in this area. Regardless, it looks like tropical storm force winds would be away from the coast. In the lower bay, winds will be increasing Tuesday Night into Wed. Given that the track stays far enough offshore, it does not look like sustained TS winds will be in the bay, but there could be a few gusts to near 35 kt for a period late Tuesday night into Wed morning. As such, will maintain the SCA for this area, as well as areas north of Cape Charles. Winds/seas will start to improve Wednesday Night as Maria rapidly moves east. Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Hurricane Maria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly steadily increase as Maria moves northward through Wednesday. Expect departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the southern Bay and areas south of Cape Henry along the ocean, with 1-1.5 ft departures northern bay into the northern coastal waters. These values are similar to what we saw last week in Jose. However, the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this week than last week in Jose. This should keep any coastal flooding confined to minor in the southern bay and areas during the time of high tide. As with Jose, the main concern may end up being high surf and potential coastal erosion. Will issue a High Surf Advisory for the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell associated with Maria moves into the region. Am still thinking that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025. NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ017-102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098-100. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ633-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638-650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...JDM/JEF AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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