Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 131950 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 350 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will stall across North Carolina this afternoon...then will push back north tonight into Monday as a wave of low pressure moves along the boundary. Additional areas of low pressure will move along the front into Tuesday night...with high pressure finally building north of the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Late morning analysis indicating a lingering and fairly weak cold front stalled across eastern NC in the WSW flow aloft. Lingering showers across far SE VA and NE NC with generally dry (but still mainly cloudy) conditions elsewhere. noting sfc dew pts into the 60-65 F range from RIC and W/NW while dew pts are still in the 70s along the coast. Skies are becoming partly to mostly sunny over the far N/NW, but do not expect this to really push too much farther south through the aftn looking at satellite trends and given the lack of any downslope flow. Most models keeping fair amount of moisture along-S of a FVX-MFV line...w/ highest PoPs along-S of the VA- NC border through the aftn. Forecast will have skies partly sunny on avg over the N, with mostly cloudy conditions central and south. PoPs this aftn will range from 40-60% in NE NC to <10% across the N. Highs today will avg mainly 80-85 F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The frontal boundary will linger just S of the local area through Mon. Maintaining chc to likely PoPs across srn VA-NE NC into tonight w/ PoPs aob 15% central/N. Flow aloft turns back a bit to the SW later Sun night/Mon...lifting the boundary a bit back N. PoPs increase back to 40-60% for much of the CWA (still highest S and E) Mon into Mon evening as the boundary is pushed back N. Lows tonight in the u60s N to 70-75F S. Highs Mon in the u70s-l80s N to the m80s S. For Tue/Wed, upper level shortwave energy moves from the Great Lakes Tue morning to off the New England coast Tue night, allowing a weak upper ridge axis to develop across the Great Lakes on Wed. Tropical system (would become Gert if were to strengthen) progged by all models (and NHC/TPC) to remain well off the coast with no impacts to the east coast other than the potential for an elevated rip current threat. Overall forcing over the local area looks minimal with a weak pressure gradient, but there will still be lingering moisture in vicinity of a weak boundary stalled across the Carolinas. The 12Z NAM is a little more aggressive at keeping moisture farther N on Tue than the 00Z GFS/ECMWF. In general, Tue looks a little more cloudy with higher precip chances than Wed and will have 40-50% chances Tue and 30-40% PoPs across the south and west with 20% to the N/NE for Wed. This will be mainly diurnal/aftn and evening showers/tstms. Skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs into the mid to upper 80s inland and 80-85 F near the coast both days with lows in the mid-upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Frontal boundary gets pushed well S of the area for Wed night thru Thu, as sfc high pressure builds into the region then off the coast. Will have mainly dry conditions (10-14% Pops) for Wed night and Thu. At least slgt chc to chc Pops return for Thu night thru Sat, as a trough of low pressure and a cold front affect the region. Highs will range fm the mid 80s to near 90 thru the period, with lows ranging fm the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VRB CIGs across the area...w/ periodic MVFR conditions...spotty IFR...mainly over far srn/SE VA and NE NC. Conditions improve from N-S across the region today with potentially sub-VFR conditions lingering across far southern portions of the region. Unsettled conditions with periodic convection continues through Tue as a boundary remains across the region...allowing for a series of disturbances to cross the area. && .MARINE...
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No headlines in the short term tonight thru Tue. Late this aftn, a cold front has dropped S of the NE NC waters, while sfc high pressure was building over the ern Great Lakes. Winds were generally NNE 5 to 10 kt over the waters. That frontal boundary will lift back N into at least extrm SE VA/NE NC for very late tonight into Tue morning, then push S of the area again during Wed. Also, tropical system (which will become Gert) is fcst to remain well east of the east coast while it tracks NNE Mon thru Tue. NE winds arnd 10 or less will become E tonight, then ESE during Mon, then ENE during Tue. That system will cause Seas to build to possible 3 to 4 ft during this time.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Areal flood warning has been reissued through 9pm tonight for most of Wicomico and a small portion of Worcester Co. MD for areas that received 5-8" or rain over the past 24-36 hrs. Some of the area river gauges are still near cresting as of 14Z this morning. && .CLIMATE... The 6.56" that SBY recorded Sat Aug 12th ranks as the 5th highest calendar date precipitation total on record (for any date of the year). The highest is 8.90" on August 30, 1936. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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