Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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353 FXUS61 KAKQ 270200 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1000 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through Monday. A cold front slowly moves across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure returns later in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Bkn-Ovc SC (cigs 1500-2000 ft) hanging on invof cstl SE VA-NE NC as onshore wnds contg. Otrw...sfc hi pres rmns just off the mdatlc cst. Lgt onshore flo becomes more SSE by lt tngt. Some incrs in lo lvl moisture expected psbly resulting in at least SCT clds by lt tngt. Also...will cont mention of patchy fog (away fm the wtrs). Lows mnly 60-65F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Return S-SW flow around the offshore high results in a warmer day Monday. 12Z models continue to show that any convection ahead of the approaching cold front holds off until around 21Z across the NWRN zones with low chc pops only making it to the I95 corridor by 00Z. Day starts out rather sunny then becomes pt sunny. Highs in the mid to upr 80s... except 75-80 at the beaches. Pops ramp up to likely most areas except coastal zones Monday night as s/w energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of th cold front. Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just NW of the area closer to the main jet axis. This shaping up to be more of a moderate to locally heavy rainfall event as PW`s quickly jump to between 1.5 - 2 inches. Will carry moderate pcpn rates at this time. Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east. Additional s/w energy will maintain decent amount of lift across the SERN half of the region to keep high chc to likely pops. Highs in the low to mid 80s except 75 to 80 at the beaches. Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air comes in from the NW, but enough support to keep chc pops most of the night across coastal areas. Lows 65-70. Another upr level trof pushes across the region Wed. This will likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours. Highs 80 - 85 except mid to upr 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s. The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to be increased for the timing of the front. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 23z...With high pressure off the coast...onshore winds have developed and a moistening boundary layer will likely lead to areas of IFR fog and stratus early Monday morning. Already seeing some IFR on the NC coast east of ECG. LAV MOS going for IFR at all the sites except ORF and followed close to that. Conditions improve fairly quickly Monday morning as winds increase from the south. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms developing from the west late Monday. OUTLOOK...A slow moving cold front will bring a likelihood showers and thunderstorms Monday evening and again Tuesday afternoon. The cold front moves through Wednesday with lower chance for precipitation mid to late week. Heavier precipitation may bring periods of IFR. There will also be the potential for IFR in morning fog or stratus during the week. && .MARINE... High pressure off New England continues to nose down into the mid Atlantic generating a continued easterly flow around 10 to 12 kts. the surface high will continue to shift offshore and winds will become light SE to S overnight. The pressure gradient tightens some Monday afternoon as a weak lee trough of low pressure developed across the piedmont. This will increase the S to SE winds to around 15 kt. For a brief time marginal SCA conditions are possible in the Bay...but confidence of wind gusts of 18 kt or greater is low and forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 kt with waves generally a choppy 2 ft with a few higher waves possible. Winds will be the strongest from mid afternoon into early evening. A band of showers and some thunderstorms will approach the Bay and coast early Tuesday morning either side of daybreak as a weak front approaches and then stalls. The pressure gradient relaxes overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning as weak low pressure passes to the north. Southerly flow continues Tuesday around 10 to 15 kt with the lee trough setting up once again. The next cold front and wind shift to a N and NE wind drops through the waters Wednesday morning with high pressure tracking to the north. This will maintained a NE to E flow Wednesday and Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The crest going down the James has apparently passed Jamestown as the river level with the afternoon high tide came in a half foot lower than expected and less than a foot above astronomical. Tidal levels may be elevated this evening as the high tide moves up river but minor flooding is no longer expected. Levels will no longer be affected by the crest by Monday morning. && .CLIMATE... June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...MRD/LSA MARINE...JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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