Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181121 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA. DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR 30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO 40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT 15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR

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