Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 061602 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1102 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CRNT TRENDS. INCRSD CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SKIES AVGG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY GIVEN THE AMT OF HIGH CLDS. ALSO LWR TMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON 12Z SNDGS. PVS DSCN: LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN VA AND EASTERN NC. SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. SEASONABLY CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH READINGS ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S CLOSER TO THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. FOR TODAY...DRY/QUIT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HIGH REMAINING ACRS THE REGION...THEN DRIFTING OFF TO THE NE AND OFF THE DELMARVA LATER THIS AFTN. DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WINDS THAN YESTERDAY...GENLY LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE S 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN WELL INLAND (REMAINING ONSHORE FROM THE E/NE NEAR THE COAST). HIGHS TODAY WILL AVG IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... PARTLY CLOUDY/DRY THIS EVENING ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH (CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS)...PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TRACKING EAST ACRS FLORIDA SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SPAWN ANTHR STORM OFF THE FLA COAST TONIGHT WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN. THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE CSTL TROF SUN NIGHT THEN WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE VA CAPES MON. THE LATEST NAM REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE TRACK THAN THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS. STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A MARINE/WIND IMPACT FOR THE AKQ CWA...A MAJOR IMPACT FOR MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD SUN NIGHT/MON. FOR SENSIBLE WX...WILL FAVOR THE SOMEWHAT DRIER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ALTHOUGH EVEN THE NAM GENLY KEEPS NW 1/2 OF THE CWA DRY ON SUN. GRIDS WILL INDICATE CHC POPS SPREADING NE ALONG THE NC AND SERN VA COAST THRU THE DAY SUN WITH CHC POPS SPRDG NORTH ALONG THE DELMARVA SUN NITE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRT PCPN TYPE AS RAIN. HIGHS SUN MID 40S IN THE CLOUDS ACRS THE FAR SE...TO AROUND 50 F FARTHER INLAND. LOWS SUN NITE 30-35 F...EXCEPT 35-40 F ALONG THE COAST. THE FAVORED TRACK SUGGESTS A LITTLE LESS WIND THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE STRNG / GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH SUN AND SUN NITE OVR VA BCH / NRN OUTER BANKS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDRESSED THIS IN THE HWO. THE OCEAN LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE MON WITH THE NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY DIVING SE FROM THE GT LAKES AND OHIO VLLY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE PRBLY WILL BE A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW...MSTR QUICKLY INCRS WEST TO EAST BY AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MOST AREAS BY MON AFTN. AS THE MSTR FROM THE UPR LVL LOW CROSSES THE MTS. PCPN TYPE REMAINS LIQUID WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45-50 F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE STARTING TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS COLD AIR ARRIVES AND THEN IS SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N/NW PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AS A POTENT VORT LOBE ROTATES THRU. THE WX THEN LOOKS DRY NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPR 30S NW TO THE LOW/MID 40S SE. HIGHS WED/THU MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST. EXPECT INCREASING HI CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...ESPLY OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC AS LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE FL/GA CST TNGT INTO SUN MORNG. STRONG OR VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED OVR SE VA AND NE NC FM LATE SUN MORNG INTO MON MORNG...AS THE LO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE WELL OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHC FOR RAIN SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT MAINLY AT ECG/ORF. OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON THRU TUE ACRS THE AREA. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PCPN. && .MARINE... THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUN. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUN MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUDNDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (STARTING 10 AM SUN FOR N-NE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45 KT). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND WILL PROBABLY HOIST THE NEXT WAVE OF SCA`S THIS AFTERNOON AFTER WE GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS DURING TODAY. HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) FOR NOW...AND THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE GIVEN EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO EARLY TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT STONY CREEK. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ

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