Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200221 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 921 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure lingers across the deep south tonight...then slides off the Southeast coast through the weekend. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... SKC as high pressure to the south dominates. Lwrd temps in a few places based on ltst obs. Lows in the 20s to nr 30 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure will prevail through the weekend with mostly clear/sunny and dry conditions. The initial high will slide off the Southeast coast Saturday. A subtle trough slides across the northeast Saturday night with a weak backdoor boundary sliding across the Ern Shore. High-res models indicating potential for some developing low stratus/patchy fog possible toward morning across the piedmont. High pressure then rebuilds across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday. Models a bit slower with the upper trough through Tuesday...and thus expect a dry day Monday, and into Monday night, as the upper trough lifts across the Great Lakes. The airmass will continue to modify through the period, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to near 60F inland/Piedmont, and in the low/mid 50s for the Ern Shore and coastal SE VA/NE NC. Lows Saturday night will generally be 30-35F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A storm system tracking across the southern Great Lakes by Monday will push its attendant cold front across the local area during Tuesday. What remains to be seen is whether this occurs during the morning or afternoon as there`s about a 6-hr difference in timing between the 12z operational GFS and ECMWF. The 12Z GEFS tends to side more with the ECMWF, and so am inclined to think the fropa will be during the midday or afternoon hours at this time. Have high chc to likely PoPs for most of the area during the 06z-18z Tue period, then pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00z Wed. The remainder of the week should be dry. Lows Mon night mainly in the low/mid 40s. Highs Tue in the low 50s on the ern shore to the 55-62 elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the low/ mid 30s. Highs Wed in the mid 40s on the ern shore to the upr 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Lows Wed night from the upr 20s N-NW to the low/mid 30s SE. Highs ranging through the 40s on Thu, then mid 40s to mid 50s on Fri. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure to the south dominates. Light SW wind tonight incrs to arnd 10 kts Sat. Outlook: High pressure settles off the SE coast Sunday and Monday with clear and dry conditions continuing. A cold front crosses the region Monday night bringing a chc of showers. High pressure returns later Tuesday. && .MARINE... High pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the marine area through the weekend with sub-sca conditions continuing. Light S-SW winds through this evening will increase to 10-15 kt overnight and Saturday. Winds diminish again by late Sat, becoming N-NW for a time Sat night and Sunday morning. S-SW around 10 kt then prevail again by Monday. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft. A cold front approaches the region from the west Monday night then crosses the water on Tuesday. There are some timing issues that still need to be worked out amongst the models with respect to whether the front passes first thing in the morning or in the afternoon. Either way, expect SCA conditions to be possible Tuesday with the fropa. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...MPR MARINE...JM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.