Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 040233 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1033 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND TO THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NC AND EXTREME SE VA LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA. THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED INTO SE VA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN VA INTO CENTRAL NC AND NRN SC. THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE COAST THRU LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS INLAND FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (MATCHING UP WITH NAM12 300K SFC AND HI-RES GUIDANCE) AND LIKELY POPS THRU 1-2 AM FOR NE NC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH LOWS ONLY A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN CURRENT OBS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30-40% NE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A 20% CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST S OF RIC AND MOVG SLOWLY SE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... A RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. THE WIND REMAINS SW AOB 10KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND IS NORTHERLY AOB 10KT ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING ENE 10-15KT ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND NRN OCEAN ZONES. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3FT THIS AFTN...AND BUILD TO 3-4 FT N OF CHINCOTEAGUE LATER TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE BAY GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-2 FT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W THEN NW ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT S...TO 3-4 FT N THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JEF/LSA MARINE...AJZ

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