-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
693
FXUS61 KAKQ 091858
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through
Thursday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
occuring both days. The potential for afternoon thunderstorms
will continue this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- High confidence in excessive rainfall and flash flooding late
  this afternoon into tonight across the Piedmont and I-95
  corridor.

- Although there is a severe threat through late this evening,
  the main concern with the storms will be heavy rain/flooding,
  given that areas that have already seen 2-5" of rain since
  last night could see additional localized totals of 3-5"
  through tonight. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect
  through tonight for the northwest 2/3 of the forecast area.

- The most likely timing for storms is 4-8 PM in the Piedmont,
  7-10 PM along the I-95 Corridor, and after 10 PM closer to
  the Peninsulas and in SE VA/NE NC.

An upper disturbance will cross the local area this evening into
tonight. Given the rain that fell over the past 24 hours and a
similar environment (with PWs ~ 2.0"), there is concern for
additional flash flooding, especially across central/south-
central VA, the VA Northern Neck, and MD Eastern Shore. Tstms
will continue to increase in coverage to our west during the
next few hours and will become more widespread across south-
central VA than they were yesterday. The storms may try to
develop into a broken line and will likely cross the Piedmont
between 4-8 PM before impacting the I-95 Corridor between 7-10
PM. The storms will then slowly push toward the coast around or
after 10 PM but should gradually weaken (although they will
likely persist through early Thu AM before completely
dissipating). Isolated tstms are possible across far SE VA and
NE NC this evening, but coverage should not be that high.

Severe wx (mainly damaging winds) is possible through this
evening...with the best chance along and west of I-95 where
storms will arrive closer to peak heating. Effective shear will
be slightly stronger than yesterday (around 25 kt north/20 kt
south). Despite slightly less heating than yesterday, there
should be enough downdraft potential for localized damaging wind
gusts with DCAPE values of 750-1000 J/kg. SPC has maintained
the Slight Risk (Level 2/5) west, with a Marginal Severe Risk
(Level 1/5) east.

As mentioned previously, the biggest and most concerning threat this
evening is the risk for additional Flash Flooding. With PWs as high
as they will be, the tstms will be capable of producing 2-3" of rain
in an hour or less. Locally, up to 5" fell across the Piedmont,
central VA, and the MD Eastern Shore. These are the same areas
that are expected to see the highest coverage of tstms this
evening with localized rain amounts of 3-5" possible in some of
the same locations. The 12z HREF still has 30+% probs of 3" of
rain in 3 hours over the western 2/3 of the area. Given the
above, WPC has maintained a Moderate Risk (Level 3/4) for
excessive rainfall across our Piedmont/I-95 corridor counties,
which is not particularly common for the local area. A Marginal
to Slight Excessive Rainfall Risk remains in place farther E/SE
where less rain fell and/or is expected. The current Flood Watch
(in effect through tonight) for the NW 2/3 of the area remains
the same and no changes area planned this afternoon. After
storms exit tonight, lows fall into the lower-mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon through
  late evening on Thursday.

-Scattered thunderstorms are still expected on Friday and Saturday
 as the unsettled pattern continues.

- The flooding threat will be highest on Thursday, but could
  continue on Friday and Saturday.

The upper trough axis crosses the area on Thursday before moving to
our east on Friday. Numerous tstms are expected across much of the
area on Thursday, with the highest coverage shifting a bit to the
south. Temps only warm into the mid 80s-90F...which will lessen the
severe threat (but SPC still has a Marginal Risk for damaging wind
gusts). Given that PWs will still be around 2.0" on Thursday (in
addition to the rain that fell yesterday and is expected today), WPC
has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across much of the area.
We finally start to see some upper height rises on Friday and
Saturday, but diurnally driven tstms will continue each day
(although coverage will be less than what is expected on Thursday).
Additionally, the swath of 2.0"+ PWs will be shunted to our SE by
Friday/Saturday. So while there is certainly a possibility of
flooding, it won`t be as high (or widespread) as what is
expected today/Thu. Temperatures will be around seasonal
averages on Fri/Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid through early next week with
  mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

A more seasonable (but somewhat unsettled) July weather pattern is
expected late this weekend into early next week. The upper ridge
will try to build back toward the area, with decently fast zonal
flow aloft expected across the northern United States and southern
Canada. This will result in typical diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day from Sun-Tue. The good news is the storm
coverage will be isolated to perhaps scattered. Exact details are
difficult to pinpoint this far out, but the main concern with any
storms will likely be localized flash flooding given the rain
expected from today-Saturday. Highs each day will be around seasonal
averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR through until late aftn/evening, though periodic dips
to MVFR with afternoon CU will be possible. Numerous tstms will
develop to our west over the next few hours before moving
across the terminals during the evening (generally between
21-04z). Have PROB30 groups at RIC/SBY/PHF, but did not at
ORF/ECG where confidence in tstms is lower. Any storm will be
capable of producing brief LIFR VSBYs in +RA, as well as
variable wind gusts of 25-30+ knots. Outside of storms, winds
will be SW at ~10 kt with a few gusts of 15-20 kt.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected on both Thu and Fri, along with the potential for
early morning ground fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue as high pressure offshore keeps
SSW winds.

- Another round of showers and strong storms is likely late this
afternoon into the overnight period.

High pressure well offshore and a surface trough inland is resulting
in SSW winds 10-15 kt. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue
through the forecast period. However, the gradient tighten ups a bit
this evening as the inland/lee trough sharpens late tonight. A brief
period of SCA winds are possible in the mouth of the Ches. Bay late
tonight/early tomorrow, but confidence is not high on reaching the
threshold, as local wind probs continue to keep 30-40% chance of
sustained 18 kt winds during this period. In addition, CAMs show the
highest wind speeds to be associated with the convection, which
would be handled with SMWs. Strong to severe storms will be a
concern again this evening into tonight with slightly better flow
aloft than was present yesterday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning
are the main marine threats from storms this evening. Beyond
tonight, the sub-SCA SSW winds will continue tomorrow and Friday
with winds becoming 5-10 kt by Friday morning, but afternoon and
evening convection continues.

There is a Low Rip Current Risk at all beaches today and
Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     075>090-509>523.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ERI/JDM
SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM
AVIATION...ERI/JKP
MARINE...KMC/RHR