Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 172110 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S. FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET (MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. && .MARINE... A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC. OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3 FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...AJZ

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