Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170724 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 324 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... LATEST MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BNDRY NOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRS LCTD OVER W VA. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRS WAS ALSO NOTED IVOF THIS BNDRY EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE...WEAK MID LVL ENERGY DRIFTING ACROSS ERN NC / SERN VA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISLTD SHWR ACTIVITY ERLY THIS MORNING. FAVORED THE SREF SOLN WITH THIS PACKAGE AS IT SEEMS TO BE A COMP BTWN THE WETTER NAM AND DRIER GFS. COMBINATION OF MOIST NE FLOW AND LOW PRS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP PLNTY OF CLDS ACROSS THE AREA (PER TSCTNS) ALONG WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR PCPN. DATA SUGGESTS BEST CHC FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE ACROSS NE NC TODAY (LOW CHC POP). ENUF MOISTURE TRYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH TO KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS (TRACE AMTS) MAINLY ALONG & SOUTH OF RT 460. SKIES SHUD AVG PT SUNNY NORTH TO MSTLY CLDY SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUED NE FLOW KEEPS THE CLDS ARND BUT DATA SUGGESTS BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M50S-L60S. HIGHS THURS IN THE M-U70S. OFFSHORE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY WITH DCRG CLDNS THURS NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S SERN CSTL AREAS. MSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE M-U70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY. WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .MARINE... NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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