Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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102 FXUS61 KAKQ 280608 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 208 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front slowly approaches from the west overnight. The front will move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches the region late in the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Axis of incrsd moisture approaching the FA fm the W...out well to the E of cdfnt moving through the OH vly. Hi res/near term guid suggests that area of shras/isold tstms entering far nnw areas attm...sloly progresses ESE through the overnight hrs. Highest POP axis (30-50%) mnly centered fm SBY-AVC. POPs aob 20% confined to far SE VA-cstl NE NC. Otrw...partly cloudy SE to vrb clds-mostly cloudy elsw. Most lows 68-72F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally along and east of Interstate 95. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall due to the moist air mass and relatively weak flow. Upper trough tracks over New England Tuesday night, pushing the cold front through the local area. Height falls will result in cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore. Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper 60`s. Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture (precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers. Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s. Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians. Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night through the weekend) in tandem with the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have continued solid chance pops each day during this period. Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday. For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Early this morning, a cold front was dropping thru the Ohio valley. The front will move southeast and pass acrs the Mid Atlc States tonight into Wed morning. An upper level disturbance and surface trough will produce sctd showers and tstms today into this evening, with additional sctd pcpn possible with the front tonight. Conditions are expected to generally be MVFR with the weather, but a few hours of IFR will be possible at RIC and SBY. Winds will be light and generally fm the south. OUTLOOK...Expect mainly dry/VFR conditions for Wed and Thu, as high pres nudges in fm the WNW. More chances for pcpn return next weekend.
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&& .MARINE... Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn. 1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide across the Ohio valley. Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre- frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW. The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630>632-634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/SAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAM/TMG CLIMATE...

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