Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270802 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 402 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS ~1018 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN TN VLY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. TO THE NW, SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO PUSH E, WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W/SW. CLEAR SKIES/GENLY LIGHT WINDS AT 08Z ACRS THE LOCAL AREA W/SHELTERED/RURAL AREAS WAKING UP TO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH TYPICAL WARM SPOTS ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DESPITE DRY CONDS OF PAST 12-24 HRS, WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER INLAND SECTIONS, AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST MENTION TO PIEDMONT COUNTIES. HOWEVER, WITH AFOREMENTIONED DRY CONDS, EXPECT IT TO BE RATHER SPARSE. SHORTWAVE/UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. RESULTANT QUASI-ZONAL W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC/SE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD, MOSTLY SUNNY FALL DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. H85 TEMPS IN THE 14-16C RANGE SHOULD BRING HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF THE BAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY, ALLOWING UPPER FLOW TO BECOME S-SW, WHICH WILL BRING A MARKED WARM UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. EXPECT PT TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM H85 TEMPS TO 15-17C TUE. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WILL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN/LOWER ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT. QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REMAINING MILD WITH PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 55-60...EXCEPT L60S AT THE BEACHES. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE A LA THE ECMWF/GGEM. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW / DEEPENING LOW AND BEST DYNAMICS ORIENTED WELL OFF TO THE N-NE ALL WOULD SEEM TO PORTEND TO A SLOWER FRONTAL PROPAGATION. DID PUSH POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO 30-40 POP WEST OF THE BAY WED AFTN, WITH SCT SHRAS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEAR/AFTER SUNSET WED OVER SERN CWA. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS, AND ONLY A NARROW SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT QPF WITH THE FROPA TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS ON WED WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD ON CONTINUED SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WILL BE INFLUENCED BY INCREASING CLOUDS/SHRAS THROUGH THE DAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS NW ZONES. FORECAST MAXIMA WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT, 75-80 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA/NE NC AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OVER COASTAL ZONES LATE. CLEARING AND TRUE CAA SURGE WILL BE A BIT DELAYED WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT, CONTINUED SOMEWHAT MILD WED NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND/EASTERN SHORE...50 TO 55 ALONG THE SE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DETERMINING HOW THE CHANGING UPPER FLOW WILL EVOLVE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THE EXTREME CUTOFF SYSTEM IT WAS DEVELOPING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF IN THE EAST. THIS IS CLOSER TO EARLIER GFS FORECASTS. THE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR NOW. THIS MEANS MAINLY A MUCH COLDER WEEKEND COMING UP. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THEN THE STRONGER COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. FOR NOW THINK THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO PUSH THE RAIN BACK TO THE COAST. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. OTHER THEN THAT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE WEST COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK. CLR SKIES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS HAVE DIED OFF...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATER WED/WED NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS ARE DIMINISHING BUT STILL KEEPING SMALL CRAFT UP INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL ALL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...WRS MARINE...JAB

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