Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250743 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 343 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WK SFC HI PRES INVOF FA EARLY THIS MRNG DRIFTS OFF THE CST BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE...LO PRES OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS (INVOF NE KS) WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE FM THE GULF CST STATES. MID/HI LVL CLDNS BEGINNING TO SPREAD E INTO THE RGN ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO DO SO THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. CIGS WILL BE LWRG GRADUALLY INTO THIS AFTN. INITIALLY...LO LVLS RMNG DRY E OF THE MTNS RESULTING IN PCPN BEING SLO TO ARRIVE FM THE W. WILL CONT W/ TREND OF GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS FM SW TO NE ACRS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. BY MID/LT AFTN...XPCG POPS 70-80% OVR MOST OF VA/NE NC CTYS...W/ 30-50% TWD THE CST. QPF AVGG 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH FM BAY ON W. DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN...TEMPS WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY RISING ABV THE 50S THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE L50S WELL INLAND...TO MNLY THE M/U50S CNTRL AND E. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... LO LVL WEDGE TO RMN IN PLACE OVR THE FA AS ONSHORE WNDS...CLDS AND PDS OF RA CONTG INTO SUN AFTN. SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING FM THE OH/TN VLYS TNGT TO OFF THE NC CST LT SUN. WILL CARRY POPS 60-80% OVR MOST OF THE FA. AVG ADDITIONAL QPF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH. POPS TO BEGIN LWRG SUN AFTN FM NNW TO SE AS WNDS SHIFT TO N AS LO PRES DEPARTS CST. LO TEMPS FM THE L40S N TO U40S SE. HI TEMPS SUN IN THE M/U50S. RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC SUN EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD SUN NGT OVR THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L/M60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTS NE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS LATER TUE/WED...AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY /MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMAINING COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...PERHAPS ONLY THE UPPER 50S AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT LATER WED INTO THU...BRINGING OVERRUNNING AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING LATER WED AND LASTING INTO THU. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW BY THU...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER/CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A SOAKING RAIN FOR SE VA AND NE NC. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WOULD ONLY INDICATE MINIMAL PCPN CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND HAVE POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE FROM LATER WED THROUGH THU ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW. DRY WX IS INDICATED FOR NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON THURS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S NEXT FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS MORNG...AS HI PRES WEAKENS OVR THE AREA. BUT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WSW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W...WHILE ANOTHER LO MOVES TO THE NC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING...THEN CONTINUING TNGT INTO SUN AFTN...AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS NC AND OFF THE CST. OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUN EVENG OR EARLY MON WHICH CONTINUE THRU TUE. THE CHC FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE WED OR WED NGT. && .MARINE... WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...ALL SCA`S WILL EXPIRE AS OF 4 PM. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. E-SE WINDS 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORN BECOME N-NE SUN AFTN/EVE W/ SPEEDS INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT...BEFORE POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WAVES BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY ON SUNDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT ON THE OCEAN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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