Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210144 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 944 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME. DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS). COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS ONLY 60-65. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12 KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ

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