Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310815 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART. THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN RETURN FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S AT THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED WINDS OF 5-8 KT AT THE TAF SITES...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. GUIDANCE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN LATEST SET OF TAFS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR STRATUS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WITH DECKS 2-4K FT POSSIBLE FROM KRIC TO KORF. FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT. ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK. THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3 FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

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