Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220028 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 828 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... NOT A TYPICAL WX DAY AGN FOR MID JULY AS CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD OVR THE FA...HOLDING TEMPS (WELL) BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. WARM/MORE HUMID AIRMASS RMNS IN PLACE...W/ LO LVL FLO CONTG FM AN E COMPONENT. BULK OF THE SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO RMN ACRS SRN TIER OF VA AND INTO NE NC (ESP AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) THROUGH THIS EVE...W/ LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS PSBL. ELSW...MNLY AWAY FM THE ERN SHORE...XPG ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS THIS EVE. RMNG MCLDY OVRNGT AS EVE PCPN SLOLY WANES. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/ WK RIDGING BUILDING OVR THE TOP OF TRAILING PIECE (OF THE TROUGH) THAT WILL LINGER INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S FM ERN NEW ENG TO BECOME SITUATED OFF THE MDATLC CST BY LT TUE/TUE NGT. WK TROUGH WILL LINGER E OF THE CAROLINA CST. DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN ON TUE APPEAR WEAKER THAN MON...AS PIECE OF SFC HIGH SETTLES S. WILL ONLY CARRY ~30% CHC POPS (MAINLY AFTN/EVENING) INLAND AND 20% OR LESS CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE/WNDS MORE SSELY ON TUE WITH SLOW WARMING TREND/HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE M/U80S WELL INLAND TO L/M/80S NR THE CST. BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS WED INTO WED NGT...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA. LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR P/MSNY CONDS AND TEMPS RESPONDING TO NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN 20-30% ON WED...HI TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S INLAND WITH 85 TO 90F NEAR THE COAST. RAISED POPS TO HI CHC (50%) SE AND LIKELY (60%) ELSW ON THU AS CDFNT SLOLY PUSHES S ACRS THE FA...INTERACTING W/ VERY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVR THE RGN. W/ CLDS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...HAVE NUDGED HI TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS F ACRS THE FA. XPCG HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S N TO THE U80S/ARND 90F S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA LATER FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOLID CHC POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST SE). BY FRIDAY...CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA NEAREST THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOCATIONS NORTH OF RICHMOND DRY. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC...PENDING AGREEMENT OF NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S...EXCEPT SOME LOW 90S INLAND BY SUN/MON. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS A THREAT FOR LOW CEILINGS AT NIGHT. WILL SEE MVFR/IFR MOST OR ALL OF THE SITES. CONDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH MVFR DEVELOPING AT ORF PHF AND POSSIBLY ECG SHORTLY. OCNL MVFR WAS BEING REPORTED AT RIC. SBY APPEARS TO BE SOLID VFR TO START WITH BUT AS IT DID LAST NIGHT...MAY GO DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT/04Z. PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY WITH VFR OCNL MVFR PREVAILING MOST OF THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED. OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE IS INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. FRAILLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND VFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PSBL FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
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&& .MARINE... A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. E WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUES MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC/SE COAST TUES AFTN INTO WED. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO THE N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. WAVES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG

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