Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251357 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 957 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN STALLS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG IT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SFC HI PRES SITS JUST OFF THE SE VA/ERN NC CSTS...PROVIDING MILD CONDS W/ SSW WNDS TO 10-15 MPH AND MNLY SKC. THE SFC HI DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER S THROUGH THIS AFTN. WK SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST E OF MTNS AND NR TERM MDLS CONT TO SHOW THAT AREA AS FOCUS FOR BKN CLDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS (WHICH MAY DRIFT E INTO FAR NW COUNTIES IN FA LT). THIS FAR E...RMNG MNLY SKC W/ WARMING CONTG ON SWLY WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S INLAND...L-M70S ALONG THE COAST XCP READINGS NO BETTER THAN THE 60S AT MOST OF THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MSTLY CLR / PT CLDY AND MUCH WARMER TONIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH CONTS THE SW WIND FLOW. ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE MASS FIELDS SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPEARS ANY PCPN STAYS NORTH OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. LOWS IN THE U50S-L60S. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. ALL DATA SUGGESTS AKQ FA REMAINS DRY THROUGH 18Z WITH ONLY ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ACROSS NORTHERN MOST CNTYS THRU 00Z. DROPPED POPS THRU 18Z AND CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY SOUTHERN HALF OF FA. WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED. HIGHS 80-85 WEST OF THE BAY...75-80 ALONG COAST. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA TUES NIGHT THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WED MORNING. WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A DECENT CHC FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA NOW LOOKS LIKE ONLY SPORATIC AMOUNTS OF QPF AS THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WEAKENS OR DISSIPATES TO SCT SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CENTRAL VA MAY SEE VERY LITTLE QPF AS IT GETS PINCHED BETWEEN SOME ENERGY FROM A S/W TO THE NE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND ENERGY WITH A SECOND S/W ALONG THE BOUNDARY IVOF RT 58 NEAR DAN-AVC-EMV. THUS WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW. WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOWS IN THE U50S-L60S EXCEPT M50S MD BEACHES. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WED AS A WEAK S/W RIDES EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT FRONTAL POSITION WITH IT TRYING TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VA THROUGH OUT THE DAY. BEST SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE SWRN PIEDMONT WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN PIEDMONT CNTYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE IS PROGGED TO KEEP THE ERN SHORE DRY. TEMPS TRICKY AND WILL ALL DEPEND ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION...AMOUNT OF SUN (IF ANY) AND WHERE PCPN OCCURS. COULD SEE A 25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE FA. FOR NOW...WENT WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE M-U50S ALONG THE ERN SHORE BEACHES (DUE TO THE N-NE FLOW)...L-M60S INLAND EASTERN SHORE AREAS...M60S-L70S NRN NECK TO I64 CORRIDOR...75-80 SWRN INLAND AREAS (WHICH MAY END UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT). JUST ANOTHER DAY IN PARADISE TRYING TO FORECAST BACKDOOR FRONTAL LOCATIONS TWO DAYS OUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA WED NIGHT...THEN REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS BOUNDARY NEARBY WILL CARRY CHC POPS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. NEXT SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE MAINLY DRY ATTM. HIGHS THU/FRI FROM THE LOW 70S EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT/SUN FROM THE UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND SETTLES WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5KFT AGL WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE VA... NE NC...AND COASTAL LOCATIONS). VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A FLAT/ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN IL TO NRN NJ TONIGHT WILL START SPREADING A CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS NRN VA/DELMARVA AREAS AND POTENTIALLY A LOWER DECK AROUND 5KFT AGL...ESPECIALLY AT KSBY. THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SAG SWD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DUE TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MVFR CIGS...AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA SLY SURGE OF 10-15KT ON CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DIURNAL SURGE OF 15KT AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE LEVELING BACK OFF INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND SETTLES WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN IL TO NRN NJ TONIGHT AND ALLOW GRADIENT-DRIVEN S-SW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTN INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS THIS AFTN GENERALLY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ALL COASTAL WATERS. WAVES 1-2FT/SEAS 3-4FT. FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP MORE. THIS WILL CREATE LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS FOR CHES BAY DUE TO WINDS OF 15-20KT... AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT DUE TO SEAS BUILDING TO 5FT IN ELY SWELL CONDITIONS. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SWD OVER THE WATERS AND STALLS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SW WINDS AOB 15KT TUESDAY NIGHT BECOME MORE NE-E/ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER SOUTH. SEAS 3-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO CHANGE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PREVAIL. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD/LSA

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