Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180552 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1252 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides offshore of the Southeast coast overnight into Saturday. A weak area of low pressure moves through the Carolinas Saturday night with high pressure returning by Sunday afternoon. A backdoor cold front pushes through the Eastern Shore Sunday night, as high pressure builds well north of the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Adjusted mins/dew points/sky coverage a bit based off of 05Z obs. Mainly clr with some CI late. Lows upr 20s to lwr 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level ridging builds into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs rising into the upper 60s to low 70s (upper 50s/low 60s at the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore). Mid/high clouds increase Saturday aftn as a srn stream system pushes into the Tennessee Valley. The upper system dampens as it lifts into the central Appalachians Saturday night with the energy shifting off the Southeast coast. Trended PoPs downward to only ~20% across the Piedmont and central VA, and the Currituck Outer Banks. This system ambles offshore Sunday as weak high pressure builds in from the west. Above normal temperatures continue with decreasing clouds. Morning lows range from the mid 40s to around 50, followed by highs in the upper 60s to low 70s west of the Bay (again locally cooler at the coast). High pressure builds into the Ern Great Lakes Sunday night and pushes a backdoor cold front through the Ern Shore. This high (1030+ mb) will continue to build ewd Monday resulting in onshore flow along the coast, which will result in cooler (but still above normal) temperatures along the coast, while the Piedmont will remain mild. Lows Sunday night/Monday morning average in the low/mid 40s. Forecast highs range from the low/mid 50s for the Ern Shore, to the low/mid 60s in the I-95 corridor, to the upper 60s/near 70 over the Piedmont. Mostly clear/sunny Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will settle over the region Mon night through Tue and then slide off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tue night into Wed. After that, the area sits right smack in the middle of split flow with active systems passing well north and well south...and primarily westerly flow aloft. This is not a good set-up for active weather within the long term forecast periods. 12Z GFS now trying to depict one long, elongated trough passing through the region on Wed and bringing precip to the area. This is a new solution and does not seem to hold much merit to what should happen in reality. The 12Z ECMWF is also trying to bring weakening shortwave energy and light precip across the area as well. Leaned more towards a WPC solution regarding POPs and then dropped everything by 5 percent. This ends up keeping a slight chance for rain showers late Tue night into Wed. Will see how this pans out against new 18/1200Z data. Otherwise, expect a generally dry forecast with temperatures running anywhere from 10-20 degrees above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure moves off the coast. CI overspreads the region after 12Z with BKN-OVC cigs aoa 12K FT expected after 00Z as low pressure tracks south of the region. Outlook: Some spotty light rain possible late Sat night. High pressure returns later Sunday which will allow for dry and VFR conditions to continue into early next week. A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday with only a minimal chance of light rain.
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&& .MARINE... Light and variable winds around 10kt or less the rest of today with seas of 2-3ft and waves 1-2ft. Sfc high pressure east of FL will result in winds becoming more sly this evening and increase to 10-15kt. Winds then become southwest overnight through Sat night with speeds remaining aob 15kt during this time. Seas will continue to average 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. A weakening upper level low passes south of the area Sat night into Sun as a very weak trough develops off the Carolina and Southeast coasts. Main impact to waters will be a wind shift to w-nw in this timeframe with speeds remaining aob 15kt. High pressure will then settle over the waters Mon through Tue and then slide off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tue night into Wed. Winds become more n-ne Mon through Tue...swinging around to the sw by Wed. Speeds continue to average aob 15kt, seas 2-3ft, and waves 1-2ft. && .CLIMATE... Very warm once again for the weekend, currently not expecting to set record highs but it may be close so for reference the record highs are listed below: * Site Sat 2/18 Sun 2/19 * RIC: 77 (2011) 78 (1961) * ORF: 77 (1937) 73 (1907) * SBY: 75 (1976) 72 (1961) * ECG: 80 (1976) 77 (1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...MPR/TMG SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...AKQ

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