Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181947 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains anchored off the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday. A frontal boundary moves south across the local area Friday night and then stalls over the Carolinas on Saturday. This front will lift back north as a warm front on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Latest sfc analysis shows broad Bermuda high pres offshore with a weak lee trough over western VA. Aloft...an upr-level ridge extends up the Eastern Seaboard. Kept silent PoPs this aftn into tonight due to the ridge aloft and lack of forcing/deep moisture. Otws...expect a partly-mostly clear sky with SW wind and low temps in the upr 60s to near 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry for much of the day Fri as upr-level ridging persists across the eastern CONUS and a cold front drops towards the area. Silent PoPs Fri morning increase to chance Fri aftn as the cold front and weak mid-level energy approach the area. Although widespread severe wx is not expected, a few storms could be strong to severe due to high CAPE and low-level lapse rates. There is still some uncertainty however to coverage hence keeping PoPs in the chance range. Also, the pcpn may hold off until after sunset in many areas. Chance PoPs everywhere Fri night, become only mentioned over southern areas Sat as the front drops south into the Carolinas. As high pres builds over the SE states Sat, NE flow will ensue and lead to below normal temps...highs only in the 70s most locations.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Frontal boundary stalls across the Carolinas Sat night as high pressure over eastern Canada creates a wedge type situation with plenty of moisture off the ocean. Not much of a trigger noted for any widespread pcpn but some light showers/drizzle psbl across nc zones after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s north to lwr 60s south. High pressure retreats east allowing the frontal boundary to lift back north as a warm front Sun. Not much of a trigger for any pcpn until the fa becomes warm sectored, then think enough residual low level moisture will act on daytime heating to produce isolated convection after 18Z. High in the 70s except near 80 across inland NC. Isltd evening convection Sun with additional shwrs developing across the Piedmont late. Lows in the 60s. Models a few hours quicker with the moisture ahead of the strong cold front still progged across the fa during the afternoon/early evening. Plenty of moisture along with decent instability to keep the likely pops. A few strong tstrms with heavy downpours are possible, depending on how much heating can occur. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. ECMWF has come around to a GFS solution with respect of how fast this system moves off the coast. Will keep likely pops eastern zones Mon night then taper off to chc after midnight. Lows mid 50s nw to low-mid 60s se. A brief reprieve Tue as weak high pressure builds into the area from the west. Kept it dry under pt sunny skies. Highs in the mid to upr 70s. Mstly cldy with sct shwrs returning Tue night. Lows in the upr 50s nw to mid 60s se. Upr level low moves ne across the Gt Lakes region Wed with the trailing cold front progged across the area late in the day and night. Likely pops most areas Wed, chc pops Wed evening as the front pushes offshore. Highs Wed in the mid to upr 70s. Lows in the mid 50s to lwr 60s. Upr level moisture rotates around the low to the north. This keeps Thursday rather unsettles with mstly cldy skies with chc shwrs. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Aside from some scattered high clouds this aftn, expect SW winds gusting up to 20-25 kt with sfc high pres centered offshore. Similar conditions into Fri, as a cold front approaches from the north late in the day. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day, with MVFR/IFR psbl with the pcpn. Onshore flow and lower cigs psbl then into Sat and Sun, with a better chance of pcpn into early next week.
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&& .MARINE...
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SW winds have leveled off at around 15 KTS across the bay and 15-20 kts over the coastal waters with the daytime heating. High pressure off the coast will keep conditions about the same over the next 24 hours. Expect a bit of diurnal increase in the winds late tonight then leveling off after 12Z Fri. Although a few gusts to 20 KTS were noted this morning, don`t really see the need to hoist any SCA headlines through Friday evening given marginal wind speeds. Cold front crosses the area Friday night and continues south into the Carolinas Saturday. Models agree that a decent NE surge will occur behind the boundary Saturday morning, continuing into Sat night across the south. Given this would be a 4th/5h period SCA event, have elected to hold off on any headlines with this package and let the midnight shift better define the the exact starting and ending times given the persistent onshore flow is expected to continue into Sunday. Seas will likely stay elevated over the weekend due to the onshore flow. Winds become SSW Monday ahead of the next strong cold front progged across the marine area Monday evening. Low pressure along this boundary will likely play havoc with the directions for a while, but will become WNW behind the departing low.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MPR

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