Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210215 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE THAT W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U70S/M80S. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL FLO LARGELY HAS E COMPONENT. SHRA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA OVER CENTRAL NC MAY DRIFT N INTO INTERIOR NE NC AND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE 30-40% OVER FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT W/ LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST. DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY. BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN 20-30% ON WED. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING...IMPROVING BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. MOS HAS IFR AT SOME LOCATIONS BUT ONLY PUT THAT WITH SBY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS SBY WHERE MVFR CIGS HAVE PREVAILED ALL DAY. CIGS BRIEFLY WENT SCT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z. RUC MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TAF WHICH INDICATES LOW LEVEL DRYING AND HAVE PREDOMINANT VFR BY 02Z. IFR WITH FOG AND LOW CIGS IS INDICATED FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. NAM AND GFS MOS BOTH INDICATE LOW CIGS REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF IS LOW. NOTE THAT OBS ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE AND WILL MONITOR AS WELL AS PSBL. SCT PCPN IS PSBL BOTH ACRS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTN. COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT SET OF TAFS. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY SCT TSTMS AS WELL AS EARLY MRNG STRATUS AND FOG. MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT PSBL ON FRIDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. && .MARINE... 7PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA IN THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL ZONE TILL 1AM. SEAS CONTINUED NEAR 6 FT THROUGH 7PM BUT AT 8 PM WERE DOWN TO 5.2 FT. BASED ON WINDS ALONE...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND THIS IS WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE BUT IF SWELLS FROM UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DEVELOP... THESE COULD KEEP THE SEAS ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE SCA CAN BE LIFTED BY 1 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTRW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO THE N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM/LSA

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