Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260045 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 845 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OVER NE NC. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL CLOSED LO IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA. SHRAS/TSTMS ARE FORMING NR THE FRNT OVER NE NC AND VA BEACH THIS AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVENG HRS. INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL WITH THE PCPN TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AS FLOW ALOFT RIDES PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRNT. NO SVR WX EXPECTED AS WIND SHEAR IS WEAK. POPS DECREASE THRU THE EVENING HRS TO 20% AFTER 9PM WITH THE FRNT STILL IN THE VICINITY. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL STAY DRY UNDER A PRTLY/MSTLY CLR SKY TNGT. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LO 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT TO THE LO 70S NR THE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT FINALLY STARTS NUDGING OFFSHORE WED AS STRONG SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. FM WED TO FRI...THE FRNT WILL WEAKEN AS THE HI BCMS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC BY THU NGT/FRI. AS SUCH...LINGERING POPS OVER FAR SE AREAS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY (FM 20-30% WED TO 20% THU TO BLO 20% FRI). REMAINDER OF FA REMAINS DRY THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OTWS...EXPECT PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL...HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST PD...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC SAT INTO SUN XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES...AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES (BY SUN).WILL BRING HIGHER POPS (25-40%) INTO THE FA...THEN WILL CONT W/ LINGER MNLY MNLY DIURNAL POPS ACRS THE FA MON AND TUE. TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE PD. HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE 60S TO ARND 70F. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC COLD FRONT CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE SE VA COAST. THERE IS A CHC THAT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG FRONT. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTN...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED NR THE SRN CSTL WTRS THIS AFTN...WILL BE GENERALLY STATIONARY/DIFFUSE INTO WED MRNG. ANOTHER PUSH/BNDRY FM THE NNW XPCD TO FINALLY CLR THE CSTL WTRS WED AFTN...STOPPING INVOF CSTL NC FOR THU. SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS BY LT WEEK. CONDS TO RMN SUB-SCA UFN W/ WNDS VRB AOB 15 KT THROUGH WED MRNG...THEN NNE THEREAFTER INTO THU. THU INTO THE WKND...WNDS BECOME ONSHORE...RMNG AOB 15 KT ON AVG. SOME BUILDUP OF SEAS PSBL...ESP ON THE SRN OCN WTRS FRI INTO THE WKND DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WNDS. OTRW...WAVES 1-2FT/SEAS 2-3FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...DAP/JEF MARINE...ALB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.