Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271520 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1120 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTRN. RESULTANT W-NW FLOW ALLOWS FOR A QUICK TMP JUMP NEXT FEW HRS INTO THE L-M70S WEST OF THE BAY...U60S TO ARND 70 ERN SHORE/NRN NECK AREAS. MSTLY CLR SKIES ALLOWS FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE ANTARES ROCKET LAUNCH FROM WALLOPS ISLAND AT 645 PM (SCHEDULED LAUNCH).
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY, ALLOWING UPPER FLOW TO BECOME S-SW, WHICH WILL BRING A MARKED WARM UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. EXPECT PT TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM H85 TEMPS TO 15-17C TUE. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WILL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN/LOWER ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT. QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REMAINING MILD WITH PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 55-60...EXCEPT L60S AT THE BEACHES. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE A LA THE ECMWF/GGEM. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW / DEEPENING LOW AND BEST DYNAMICS ORIENTED WELL OFF TO THE N-NE ALL WOULD SEEM TO PORTEND TO A SLOWER FRONTAL PROPAGATION. DID PUSH POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO 30-40 POP WEST OF THE BAY WED AFTN, WITH SCT SHRAS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEAR/AFTER SUNSET WED OVER SERN CWA. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS, AND ONLY A NARROW SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT QPF WITH THE FROPA TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS ON WED WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD ON CONTINUED SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WILL BE INFLUENCED BY INCREASING CLOUDS/SHRAS THROUGH THE DAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS NW ZONES. FORECAST MAXIMA WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT, 75-80 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA/NE NC AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OVER COASTAL ZONES LATE. CLEARING AND TRUE CAA SURGE WILL BE A BIT DELAYED WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT, CONTINUED SOMEWHAT MILD WED NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND/EASTERN SHORE...50 TO 55 ALONG THE SE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DETERMINING HOW THE CHANGING UPPER FLOW WILL EVOLVE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THE EXTREME CUTOFF SYSTEM IT WAS DEVELOPING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF IN THE EAST. THIS IS CLOSER TO EARLIER GFS FORECASTS. THE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR NOW. THIS MEANS MAINLY A MUCH COLDER WEEKEND COMING UP. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THEN THE STRONGER COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. FOR NOW THINK THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO PUSH THE RAIN BACK TO THE COAST. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. OTHER THEN THAT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE WEST COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SLY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT TUE/WED AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. GUSTS OF 15-20KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES ON TUE AFTN...AND FROM THE DELMARVA ACROSS SE VA/NE NC ON WED AFTN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON WED AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO THU. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOWERY AS THE FRONT GETS PULLED APART BY THE TIME IT TRAVERSES THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE DELMARVA THU/FRI. A VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BTWN THE TROUGH AND COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERY TIGHT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...CAUSING BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. && .MARINE... LIGHT W-NW WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THE HIGH SLIDES EWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. A NOCTURNAL SUB-SCA SURGE IN WINDS (AOB 15KT BAY/AOB 20KT OCEAN) SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SEAS/WAVES SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY DURING THE WIND SURGES. OTHERWISE...SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT/1-2FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON WED AND WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...FOLLOWED BY NLY WINDS THU INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE DELMARVA. A VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI AND INTO THE NE STATES ON SAT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BTWN THE TROUGH AND COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERY TIGHT WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD

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