Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272102 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 502 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the area through Thursday. This boundary will lift north to around the Mason Dixon line on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Heat Advisory continues for southern/SE portions of the area until 8 PM this evening. Current conditions show HI values AOA 105 degrees for most of this area. Also watching tstms this afternoon which have developed across the eastern Piedmont and also along the Ches Bay/Eastern shore. So far this activity has been widely scattered with partly to mostly sunny conditions for much of the area. Will hold onto chc pops (30-50%) for most locations through the evening with a weak/diffuse frontal boundary nearby and also outflow boundaries around from ongoing convection. The threat for severe wx remains low (marginal risk) given weak shear profiles. However, the strongest storms will be capable of frequent lightning and heavy rain. Tstms will tend to wane by late evening and overnight but will maintain slight chc pops with the weak frontal boundary nearby. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid/upr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The weak frontal boundary begins to lift north of the area on Thursday and should be located across our northern counties Thursday afternoon. This feature in combination with a developing lee trough and a disturbance passing overhead late in the day will lead to the development of scattered aftn/eve thunderstorms, especially north. SPC has most of our area in a Slight Risk given the better shear (30kt) that develops and decent thermodynamics. Main concerns will be for large hail, localized damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. In addition...increased low level thicknesses/H85 temps across central/southern areas support a little hotter temps. This in combination with dew pts in the mid 70s will result in high heat index values again. Will have a heat advisory for most areas east/south of RIC to the Ches Bay. Highs in the low to mid 90s. By Thursday night and Friday the aforementioned weak boundary washes out near the Mason-Dixon line and we`ll wait for the next cold front to approach from the north by late Friday. A potent shortwave is also expected to cross the area late Thursday night into midday Friday and will be the focus for additional shwrs/tstms. Will have high chc to likely pops (40-60%) across northern areas through Friday afternoon with lower chances S-SE (farther removed from the best support). Cannot rule out the potential for some heavy rain given PWs in excess of 2". However, there`s too much uncertainty at this time to warrant a flash flood watch. Not as hot across the north Friday given the added cloud cover and convection. Highs Friday from the upr 80s north to the mid 90s south. May need another heat advisory south. Lows Thursday night in the 70s. The next cold front washes out across the area Saturday and may touch of additional convection. Pops were placed at (30-40%) for the afternoon. Highs from the upr 80s north to the low 90s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended period will feature more normal temps for this time of year, but there will be decent chances for showers and tstms thru Mon. A frontal boundary will slowly drop acrs the region Sat ngt into Tue morning, with the highest POPs (40-50%) Sat ngt into Mon morning. The POPs will decrease fm N to S later Mon thru Tue, with most of the area dry later Tue thru Wed, as high pressure blds in fm the NNE. Max temps will generally range fm the mid 80s to near 90, with min temps ranging fm the upr 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Vfr conditions across area terminals this afternoon to begin the TAF period, with the exception of some sct convection offshore to the E of KSBY. Expect some additional isolated to widely scattered T-Storm activity across terminals from 27/20z through approximately 28/04z...with brief MVFR/LCL IFR possible in stronger storms. Winds will be generally light and variable outside of TSTM activity. OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected to continue each day through the weekend, with some early morning fog also possible. Expect vast majority of time will be VFR at area terminals. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tngt thru Fri. Frontal boundary laying acrs srn portions of the area late this aftn, will lift N of the region Thu morning, then drops back down acrs the area as a cold front Fri aftn thru Fri ngt. Winds will be arnd 10 kt or less thru this period, and go fm SE or S tngt into Thu ngt, then SW becoming W or NW Fri and Fri ngt. Waves 1-2 ft over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065-079>082- 087>090-092-093-095>098-514-523>525. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ060- 065>069-079>084-087>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-518-520- 523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAM MARINE...TMG

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