Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280808 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 408 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG UNDER OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. GENLY THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN TOO WIDESPREAD/DENSE. CONTINUED NICE WX TODAY...SOME INCRS IN CLOUDS IS XPCD THIS AFTN AS A CSTL FNT (INVERTED TROUGH) BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BUT CONDS STILL AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (AT WORST) THERE (AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE). HIGHS AVG IN THE U70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE L80S (WELL) INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE (20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS). MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE COAST. TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF SHORE...AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THUS...HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN JUST A CHC ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE). RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR-MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE).
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED MORNING WITH PROLONGED NE FLOW/LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS THE OPEN (LESS AMPLIFIED) GFS SOLUTION, BUT THE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES VARY QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. LONG STORY SHORT, SUSPECT THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION IS A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE CONSISTENT UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS, DID DELAY CLEARING A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS DOWN IN ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING CLOUDS/DZ. ULTIMATELY, POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED. SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATER WED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES...STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS STATES ESE INTO THE NE U.S. AND NRN MID ATLC EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. ENUF LO LVL MOIST WILL STILL PRODUCE PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/ECG AND POSSIBLY SBY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO MON MORNG ACRS THE AREA. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...AND COULD BRING LWR CIGS/VSBYS AND A CHC FOR RAIN. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NE WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND DIMINISH TO ~10KT ON SUNDAY. WILL DROP THE SCA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS NOW GENERALLY 3-4 FT OVER COASTAL WATERS...AND NWPS/WAVEWATCH AGREE WITH KEEPING SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO DETERIORATE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IMPACT THE WATERS. FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NE AND GRADUALLY RAMP BACK UP INTO SCA RANGE BY LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RE-SHARPENS COURTESY OF 1032+MB SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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