Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 172000 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains centered north of the region tonight. Hurricane Jose will lift northward off the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coasts Monday and Tuesday, and then depart to the northeast off the Southern New England coast Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Broad weak high pressure extends from the Ohio Valley across the Ern Great Lakes through New England this aftn. A coastal front is situated in vicinity Ern NC/SE VA and hurricane Jose is lifting nwd well E of the Carolina coast. The coastal boundary is the focus for isolated to scattered showers are situated over SE VA/NC NC. Temperatures this aftn range from the upper 70s to mid 80s under a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky. The boundary will remain in vicinity of the coast tonight. However, showers should dissipate early this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Some partial clearing is possible this evening, mainly W, and this will result in the potential for patchy fog over the Piedmont and interior S- central VA. Sky cover remains mostly cloudy along the coast tonight. Forecast low temperatures range from the mid 60s for most of the area to the upper 60s to around 70F SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Jose is expected to lift nwd off the Carolina Coast Monday. There is not much forcing for pcpn. However, the coastal boundary will linger over the area supporting 20-30% PoPs from the wrn shore of the Bay to the Atlantic coast. Sky cover will range from partly sunny inland to mostly cloudy along the coast with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s at the coast to the low to locally mid 80s farther inland. will continue along the coast Sunday night into Monday under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. A NNE wind will increase Monday night with the current forecast showing speeds of 20-25 mph at the immediate coast with gusts up to 35 mph possible. The deepest moisture nears the coast later Monday night into midday Tuesday, with the best potential for showers (40-50%) along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore, bordered by 20-40% from the wrn shore of the Bay through far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Mostly cloudy Monday night with lows in the 60s. Jose is progged to push nwd off the VA Capes Tuesday. The low- level flow will gradually become NNW through the day with drier mid-level air overspreading the area by the aftn. Remaining breezy over the Ern shore through at least midday Tuesday with a 15-25 mph NNW wind gusting up to 30-35 mph, and potentially up to 40 mph on the immediate Atlantic coast. Decreasing clouds from W-E with highs in the upper 70s at the coast to the low/mid 80s inland. Weak high pressure builds into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Remaining mild in the wake of Jose with lows Tuesday night in the 60s, and then warming into the low/mid 80s Wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Medium range period characterized by building high pressure over the eastern CONUS behind Hurricane Jose, which will bring generally dry and near to just above normal conditions for the period. Highs in the latter half of the week will average in the mid 80s inland, upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Temps cool back to near normal late in the period as low-level onshore flow develops, as upper ridging strengthens to the north. Blended model consensus continues to show low rain chances during this period, so will linger PoP right around climo for the late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Deep NE flow bringing MVFR clouds to TAF sites, especially ORF/ECG. Cloud ceilings have been very difficult to improve as overall pattern of increasing clouds are moving north. Clouds moving onshore over the Eastern Shore may also decrease ceilings over SBY. Scattered showers also affecting NE NC and portions of the Hampton Road due to a coastal boundary. Conditions near ORF/ECG will be hard to improve during the afternoon/evening hours. Other TAF sites will likely have some tempo sct/bkn cloud at or below 3000ft. Guidance suggests fog/stratus developing again overnight but think the stratus will be more prominent as gradient winds increase overnight near the coast. However there is a good chance of IFR fog over RIC and the Piedmont area during the overnight and early morning. Outlook: Hurricane Jose will lift nwd well off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight through Tuesday with chc of showers along the coast. NE wind increases to 10-15kt along the coast Monday, and increases further to 15-25kt Monday night into Tuesday. Jose departs to the NE off the srn New England coast Wed/Thurs as weak high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... Several headlines issued with this forecast package as winds/waves/seas will ramp up with Hurricane Jose pushing northward offshore early this week. First, a tropical storm watch is in effect over all coastal waters where winds over 34 kt are psbl by late Mon/Mon night. Seas there of 4-7 ft today will increase up to 10-14 ft by Mon night. Waves over the Bay will also increase as Jose pushes northwards, from 3-4 ft later this aftn to 5-7 ft by Mon night with winds gusting up to 25-30 kt. Similar winds over the remainder of the Bay with waves up to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions also expected to commence over the Sound/rivers on Mon, lasting through Mon night/Tue. A track closer to the coast would bring higher winds than currently projected, while the consensus track from NHC remains far enough offshore that tropical storm level winds would be limited to over the coastal waters. Marine conditions then improve into mid week as Jose pushes off to the NE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Continue to monitor the track of Jose, with NE winds increasing later today through Tuesday as long period swells gradually increase. This will result in water piling up in the Bay and tidal rivers. The potential exists for minor to locally significant tidal flooding by Mon/Tue, continuing into Wednesday, as waters will already be a bit higher than normal given the upcoming new moon. As of now, elevated water levels could bring some nuisance-type very minor coastal flood impacts in typical spots as soon as tonight through Monday night. Based on the present track of Jose, more widespread minor coastal flooding is possible around the time of high tide Monday night and Tuesday. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters today due to 13-14 sec periods and ~3-5 ft nearshore waves. The risk is expected to remain high into the middle of the week as seas and swell associated with Jose increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...ALB/MAM AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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