Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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467 FXUS61 KAKQ 240014 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 814 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks east along a stalled frontal boundary this evening. A trailing front drops south across Virginia late tonight and stalls across North Carolina Friday. High pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Atmos stabilized ovr scntrl VA from eve stms so have cancelled SVR watch. Left 2 counties in NC in watch for now. Otrw...expecting contd shras-isold tstms ovr cntrl/srn portions of FA through lt this eve. Previous discussion: The next in a series of convective complexes diving SE across the mts and is poised to cross the rgn this eve. Cells bowing across wrn VA will have the potential to be strong next few hours as they drop SE. Latest Corfidi vectors/instability factors suggest these cells drop across swrn AKQ zones next few hours tracking on the leftover moisture/cape boundary left over from this mornings convection. This is where any severe potential will exist with a svr tstm watch up until 11 pm across those zreas. Airmass to stable / worked over to support severe farther north. Pops were drawn based on latest radar trends. 12Z models then wait for yet another s/w to track east ivof the stalled frontal boundary located north of the fa tonight. These two features are progged to sag SSE across the region later tonight then continue south to near the North Carolina / Virginia border Friday morning. Thus, periodic convecton will be possible tonight with high chc pops most areas, and a swath of likely pops across the northern neck / middle peninsula on east toward the eastern shore where the best omega / moisture convergence will be associated with the sfc low late. SW winds shift into the NNE after the fropa. Lows in the upr 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models slower with taking the front into North Carolina Friday. Enough moisture / instability available for chc pops most areas Friday despite the high pressure building South. A wave of low pressure along this boundary will likely enhance the convection across southern zones after 18z. Have increased pops to likely there with SPC keeping most areas south of I64 in SLGHT risk for severe tstms. Severe threat will likely depend on location of the front and points south of it. Threat will be damaging winds / large hail. Temps tricky as a NE wind will likely keep coastal/beach areas in the upr 70s-lwr 80s...mid-upr 80s west of the bay. Chance pops continue Friday evening but taper off north to south after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and assocated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr 70s se. High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow. Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Not an easy TAF forecast. Mostly VFR across the region at 18Z but a large area of showers/tstms is approching from the NW (Ohio Valley) and moving towards the Mid Atlantic region. How this area will evolve over time is not being handled very well by model guidance. Generally expect some showers and possible TSTM development during the aftn/evening period. This will likely affect the region through midnight and possibly into the early morning. MVFR/IFR conditions expected during any convection. VFR conditions expected outside any precip activity...except some fog and light rain/drizzle are possible towards the early morning. Outlook...Unsettled weather continues Fri with a frontal boundary across the region. Additional showers or storms are possible. The weekend looks quiet with high pressure building across the Mid Atlc. && .MARINE... Generally quiet conditions across the marine area for the next few days. The stationary front across nrn VA will slowly move south across the waters through Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front and move over the area. As such...south- southwest winds tonight will gradually turn northeasterly by Friday night across the waters. Do not expect significant strengthening of the low and as such am thinking the winds over the coastal waters will stay well below 20 kt and waves will stay in the 3-4 ft range. The front remains stationary Saturday keeping NE winds across the area. High pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...JEF MARINE...MRD

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