Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 260622
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
222 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
High pressure remains offshore the southeast coast through
Monday. A weak frontal boundary drops south to the Delmarva
Sunday morning before lifting back to the north Sunday night
and Monday. A cold front crosses the region late Tuesday through
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The current surface analysis shows 1036mb high pressure centered
over QB and ridging swd through the Hudson Valley across NJ into
the nrn Delmarva, with another high centered well off the
Southeast Coast. A backdoor cold front is located between these
high pressure systems near the MD/DE border. High clouds
continue to stream overhead with mostly cloudy conditions
across the region. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the
60s, with low 50s in the wake of the front. 4mb/3hr pressure
rises from the srn New England coast into NJ are nudging the
backdoor front to the S, which should push through the Lower MD
Ern Shore late this evening, and then settle over the Nrn Neck
Remaining dry overnight ahead of low pres lifting ENE from the
mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Onshore flow in the wake of
the backdoor front could result in increasing low clouds across
the Ern Shore. Elsewhere, a S wind will prevail under mainly
BKN-OVC cirrus farther S. Lows m-u40s on the ern shore to the
l-m50s elsewhere. Will have mention of patchy fog late (after 5
am) though not anticipating dense fog.
Weakening low pres (sfc-aloft) will continue to track NE the
Great Lakes Sun-Sun night...pushing a weak low level boundary
into/across the FA. Only SLGT forcing aloft w/ this
system...which will likely limit pcpn coverage. Did raise sky
cover to mostly cloudy/cloudy ern shore and partly-mostly cloudy
elsewhere. Upper level shortwave brushes NW zones late and will
have a 20-30% PoPs mainly confined to the NW after 21Z. Highs
Sun to show a strong gradient with temperatures likely stuck in
the 50s in low clouds over the MD eastern shore, with l-m70s
inland (in VA/NE NC).
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lows Sun night in the u40s- around 50F on the ern shore to the
l-m50s elsewhere, with mainly dry conds and partly cloudy skies.
Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA
w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains
invof SE CONUS coast. VRB clouds Mon w/ PoPs mainly aob 20%,
though will have a small area of 30% PoPs across the far N
through midday. Highs should warm a few degrees compared to
Sunday, into the mid-upper 70s over much of VA and interior
northeast NC to the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast and
over the eastern shore. Upper level ridging to keep it mainly
dry and continued warm Mon night with lows in the 50s. Upper
level trough pushes into the area on tue as a sfc cold front
passes by late. continued warm with highs well into the 70s to
near 80 F if rain holds off. There will be a higher chance for
showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs for now
given some continued timing differences between the GFS/GEFS
and slightly slower ECMWF.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure and assoc cold front will be pushing acrs the
region and off the coast Tue night into early Wed morning,
maintaining slgt chc or chc of showers. Dry wx expected for Wed
thru most of Thu, as high pressure builds in fm the N. Chance
for more showers and possible tstms then Thu night into at
least the first part of Sat, as low pressure and another assoc
cold front approaches and moves acrs the region.
Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Wed, in the mid 50s to mid 60s
Thu and Fri, and in the 60s to lower 70s Sat. Lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s Tue night, in the lower to mid 40s Wed night
and Thu night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Sfc boundary has slid S through portions of the ern shore the
past several hours...w/ onshore winds and development of ST
invof SBY. The boundary will likely make an attempt to make it
SSW to RIC/PHF/ORF before daybreak. Continued IFR conditions
expected invof SBY into this afternoon before potentially lifting
(slowly). Low prob for conditions approaching IFR CIGs...mainly
at RIC before 12Z/26.
Mainly VFR conditions expected otherwise through the 06Z TAF
period. Front approaches slowly from the W late today/tonight
and may result in ISOLD SHRAS at RIC/SBY. Unsettled wx conditions
will persist across the region through mid-week. Sub-VFR
conditions will be possible late overnight and into the early
morning hours primarily due to low ceilings. Scattered showers
becoming increasingly likely by Tue/Tue night. Periods of
reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of
-- End Changed Discussion --
No headlines in the short term tonight thru Mon. Late this aftn,
high pressure was cntrd well off the Mid Atlc coast. While low
pressure was over Missouri, with a frontal boundary extending
ewrd acrs the OH valley and PA, then off the NJ coast. The
frontal boundary will drop down thru the Lower MD ern shore for
late tonight thru Sun, before lifting back north of that area
Sun night into early Mon morning, as the low lifts NE into the
Great Lakes. Another low pressure area and assoc cold front will
then track fm the srn Plains ENE and acrs the region Mon into
early Wed morning. Other than winds turning to the E or SE for
late tonight thru Sun, expect SW or S winds 15 kt or less this
evening thru Tue.
As low pressure moves out to sea late Tue night thru Wed
morning, winds will turn to the NW then N arnd 10 kt or less.
High pressure will build in fm the N for Wed night and Thu, with
NE winds 15 kt or less.