Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282359 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 759 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE CONUS. QUIET WX AGN THIS EVE AS CONSIDERABLE HI LVL CLDNS SPREADS OVR THE RGN FM THE WSW. SOME INCRS IN CLDS XPCD INVOF CSTL FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...THOUGH ANY RA W/ THAT WILL RMN WELL SE OF THE FA. MDL SPREAD SPOTTY RA INTO FAR SW VA AND ACRS WRN NC BY LT TNGT. OTRW...TURNING OUT MCLDY OVR THE FA W/ LO TEMPS 55 TO 60F IN MOST PLACES. FOG PTNTL LIKELY LIMITED DUE TO INCRS CLDNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MDLS CONTG TO TREND FM 00Z/28 RUNS WRT WK SYS PASSING S OF THE RGN LT MON INTO TUE. XPCG MCLDY CONDS TO PREVAIL MOST PLACES ON MON...AND A LITTLE BIT OF RA TO ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO (MNLY SRN) PORTIONS OF FA BY AFTN/EVE HRS. BULK OF FORCING NECESSARY FOR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RA FCST TO PASS (WELL) S OF THE FA INTO TUE. CONTD W/ PREV TRENDS IN FCST TO KEEP SLGT TO CHC POPS FM MON AFTN/MON NGT...QPF XPCD TO BE MNLY BLO 0.10 INCH...AND CONFINED TO ALG-S OF VA/NC BORDER. HI TEMPS MON FM THE L70S W...TO M/U70S ELSW. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE U50S TO L60S. FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC (IN THE MRNG). XPCG AT LEAST PSNY N AND CNTRL...TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F. UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS AGAIN FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING. ECG/PHF WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. A HINDRANCE FOR THIS WILL BE A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW HELPING TO DECREASE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY LOWER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD BRING SHOWERS TO FAR SRN PORTIONS LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT/WED...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NE LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE 15-20 KT THRU WED NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MAM AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...TMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.