Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171923 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 323 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast through Friday. A frontal boundary moves south across the local area Friday night...then stalls over the Carolinas Saturday. That front pulls back north Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Sfc hi pres remains situated invof wrn Atlantic attm...w/ highly amplified ridge along the E coast. The synoptic pattern is typical for a very warm spell of wx in the mid-Atlantic. SW winds gusty to 20-25 mph wane early this evening w/ loss of heating. After afternoon temperatures mainly from the u80s-l90s over the FA...lows tonight will be mainly 65 to 70F under SKC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Similar conditions for Thu...w/ SW flow bringing another very warm and a tad more humid afternoon. Highs Thu again averaging u80s-l90s...though the u70s-around 80F at the beaches. Models indicating some more convection along lee trough to the W. Given continued warm air aloft and lack of any real convective trigger locally...forecast remains dry over our local area. Ahead of approaching cold front (from the NNW) Thu night- Fri...remaining very warm w/ some increase in cloudiness. Ridge breaks down aloft resulting in more of a deep layered W flow. Minimal trigger for convection into Fri afternoon and combined w/ the W flow likely to limit PoPs/convective potential. Lows Thu night from the u60s-l70s. Highs Fri in the m80s-around 90F...even to most beaches. Will have 20-40% PoPs for SHRAS/tstms Fri night as the cold front settles into the area (from the NNW). An abrupt end to the summer-like wx expected Sat as the cold front settles S of the FA in the morning. Models remain aggressive w/ widespread cloudiness Sat as NE winds (gusty to 20-30 mph...esp at the coast) ushering in (much) cooler air. PoPs will be generally aob 20%...and mainly confined to before 15Z/20. Highs in the 60s at the coast...to the m-u70s inland. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Unsettled pattern setting up next week. Frontal boundary stalls across the Carolinas Sat night before lifting back north as a warm front Sun. Tsctns show enough moisture to keep skies mostly cldy until the warm fronts lifts north. Not much of a trigger to produce pcpn Sat night into early Sun so kept it dry for now but would can`t rule out some drizzle given a persistant onshore flow. Low confidence in this so left out of grids for now. Lows in the mid 50s north to lwr 60s south. Area becomes warm sectored Sun afternoon. Not much of a trigger seen, but did keep slght chc pops after 18Z due to daytime heating of the moist airmass. Highs in the 75-80 west of the Bay, low-mod 70s eastern shore. Cold front approaches from the west late Sun night. Evening pops diminish but then increase across the Piedmont late. Lows in the low to mid 60s. Both GFS/ECMWF agree low pressure accompanies a strong cold front as it crosses the area Monday afternoon and night. Abundant moisture with this feature to produce likely pops.. Given a late day timing and forecasted instability, some strong storms possible along with heavy downpours if enough heating can occur. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Likely/high chc pops Mon evening taper off to chc after midnight. Lows in the upr 50s to mid 60s. A brief break in the pcpn Tues as the GFS pushes the system and associated moisture offshore and temporarily dries it out while the ECMWF stalls the system keeping unsettled conditions across the region. Will keep it mstly cldy with chc pops at this time. Highs Tue in the mid to upr 70s. Lows in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. Another potent system and trailing cold front progged to cross the area Wed. Chc pops with his for now. Highs Wed 75-80.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF fcst period. Hi pres lingers offshore through late week. SW winds gusty to 20 kt into early this evening...then again after 13-15Z Thu. Hi pres off the coast dominates wx through late week. The next chance for scattered convection arrives late Fri/Fri night as a cold front pushes SSE across the local area. (Gusty) NE winds replace SW winds Saturday along w/ possible BKN-OVC (MVFR) CIGS. && .MARINE...
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No headlines expected as high pressure off the coast provides a SSW wind aob 15 KTS through Thurs night. Gradient increases Fri ahead of the approaching cold front but remain below SCA levels. The cold front crosses the area Fri night along with a decent northerly surge then shift to the NE Sat. NAM the strongest in speeds with widespread SCA level winds Sat. Seas build to 5 ft as well. Persistant onshore flow expected over the weekend but with speeds expected to drop below SCA levels by Sun. Winds become south once again Mon.
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&& .CLIMATE... Here are the record highs for Wednesday (5/17)... Record Location High Year -------- -------- ------ Richmond 94 1974 Norfolk 93 1941 Salisbury 90 1944 Elizabeth City 95 1941 Here are the record highs for Thursday (5/18)... Record Location High Year -------- -------- ------ Richmond 95 1962 Norfolk 95 1877 Salisbury 96 1911 Elizabeth City 93 1987 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/MAM MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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