Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 040802 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 402 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS. WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO THE U80S-ARND 90F S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE. LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S. 00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S. ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING THE MORNG HRS. && .MARINE... UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING (BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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