Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151523 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1123 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND NOON. THE COLD FRONT WAS BETWEEN ROA AND LYH AT 15Z AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE TIMING OF THE NAM12. THIS TAKES IT THROUGH RIC AROUND 18Z...ORF BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AND OFF THE NE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHORTLY AFT 00Z. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN. HEAVY RAIN WITH SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN DIMINISHES BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL END FROM W TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PORTION OF EASTERN VIRGINIA EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND THE NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TOWARD THE COAST. AN UPDATE TO THE SEVERE DISCUSSION WILL ISSUED BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE NOT BEEN CHANGED BUT GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 70 AND 75. A DOWNWARD TREND CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 OVER INLAND RURAL AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WITH A FREEZE WATCH INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA...EXCLUDING SE VIRGINIA. THIS WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG CAA (1000-850MB LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AT RIC DROP ~100MB IN 18 HRS!) WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR. LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SE VA/NE NC WHERE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. AS A RESULT...FREEZE WARNINGS/WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE REFER TO HEADLINE FOR MORE INFORMATION. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NWLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 (NEAR 40 MPH NEAR THE COAST) ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINING 10-15 MPH. AS A RESULT...FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED. COLD WEDNESDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME STREAMERS OVER THE BAY INTO SE VA/NE NC WEDS MORNING. H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO ~-5C (-2 STD DEV)...TRANSLATING TO DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S...EVEN UNDER THE STRONG APRIL SUN. TEMPS AGAIN MAY FALL TO AROUND FREEZING OVER INLAND COUNTIES WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE NC COAST BY THURS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY...ABOUT ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPS MODERATING A BIT SATURDAY. ALOFT, NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT, EVENTUALLY PUSHING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH SAT NGT AND EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS DO TAKE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY-SATURDAY, WITH RESULTANT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS PROMPTING SOME LOW POPS LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 12Z/14 EURO SOLUTION REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET FOR THIS PACKAGE. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHC WOULD BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST SHUNTING SYSTEM OFFSHORE. QUICK CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD (EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY). && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z MAINLY AT KSBY...EVENTUALLY KRIC. MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY (GUSTS OF 25-30 KT) AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH PERIODIC IFR VSBYS RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT ARE LIKELY AS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS). OUTLOOK...BEHIND THE FRONT, LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK TO THE NNW AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-35 KT THROUGH 06Z INLAND AND THROUGH 15Z AT KORF/KPHF/KECG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WED THRU FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .MARINE... RAISED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...REMOVED RAMP-UP SCA`S AS WE ARE WITHIN ~ 12 HRS OF THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...AS PRESSURE FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z AS WINDS SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT (AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION). THIS EVENING...IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 MB IN A 6 HR PERIOD SHOULD BRING GUSTS OF 35-40 KT FOR ALL ZONES. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR THAT WILL ENHANCE MIXING OVER THE WATERS. WAVES WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL BLD TO 5 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD JUST TO THE N BY WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 12Z FOR THE BAY/RIVERS...BUT HOLDING INTO EARLY AFTN FOR THE COAST AND CURRITUCK SOUND. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ012. VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ078-084>090-092-093. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049- 060>077-079>083. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...SAM/LSA SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...MAM/JEF AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.