Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210808 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 408 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY TDA. LIMITED LO CIGS AND FOG TO START...THEN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN TDA. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE. HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS (FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS. A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA. HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT (PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT. ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING OCCURRED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24 HOURS AGO...CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW. MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU MON.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAS/LSA MARINE...MAS

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