Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010003 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 803 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. $$ .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS SHOWING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS QUICKLY COMING IN FROM THE W AND SW AND COVERING A BIT MORE REAL ESTATE THAN WHAT THE GRIDS HAVE SHOWN. THUS...HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS A BIT FOR THE QUICKER PCPN RETURN THIS EVENING. PCPN RATHER LIGHT WITH NOT MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED. THIS ALL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA SO THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NWRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNITE. SERN VA / NE NC MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW UPPER 40S ONCE AGAIN IN THE MD EASTERN SHORE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRIMMING BACK POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS WEST...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT GENERALLY NORTH OF RICHMOND. THEN BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT GENERALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THIS...THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOISTURE SCOUR OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS HOWEVER...AS THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS DO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME/. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GENERALLY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 70S WILL PREVAIL. COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NE-E FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS VARIABLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO VFR. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE U.S. IS RIDGING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST AND PROVIDING SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE TN VALLEY IS PRODUCING RAIN THAT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL VA AND TO THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. CEILINGS FOR RIC/SBY AND PHF LIKELY TO REDUCE TO IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO LOWER OVER ORF/ECG AS THE RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT. BUT THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THRU DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND BRING RAIN AND IFR CONDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS. && .MARINE... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY WELL S OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE MID ATLC CST. RESULTING NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SEAS UP TO ~5 FT EXPECTED. THE SUB-SCA NE FLOW THIS EVENG BCMS SELY THEN SLY SUN AS SFC LO PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A COLD FRNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON...WHICH REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY THRU MID WEEK. ONLY CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE WITH 5 FT SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS SUN NGT/MON MORNG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES ATTM WITH SOME CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR/MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JEF/JAO MARINE...MAS

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