Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140220 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 920 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly build in from the northwest tonight and will settle over the region Tuesday through Wednesday. A mainly dry cold front will drop across the region late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, followed by high pressure returning Thursday afternoon into Friday. A strong cold front will affect the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure well off the Mid- atlc coast with strong sfc high pressure (~1033 mb) centered across central/southern IN. Finally beginning to see clearing skies over N/NW portions of the CWA, with low clouds lingering farther SE. Expect the clearing from the NNW to continue into the evening as drier air filters in, but suspect skies will stay mostly cloudy to cloudy across SE VA/NE NC through most of tonight. This due to the sfc high being rather slow shifting ESE from IN/OH this evening to SE OH and WV overnight. Added patchy fog for much of the Piedmont where winds will be relatively light and skies clear out. Should have too much mixing and lingering cloud cover for fog closer to the coast. Lows ranging from the lower-mid 30s NW to the mid to perhaps upper 40s coastal SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... The high will build eastward and into the NE U.S. Tue through Tue night, with the ridge axis extending down into the Mid Atlc region. Still anticipate a fair amount of cloud cover (BKN) across southern/SE sections of the CWA while skies will genly be a bit more sunny farther N/W. Highs mainly in the lower to mid 50s which is still several degrees below avg for mid November. Models in good agreement with the sfc high centered from the NE to the mid-Atlc Tue night/Wed, and should see a fairly cold night with lows mainly in the lower 30s well inland to upper 30s/lower 40s near the coast under mainly clear skies. The surface high will be right over the area on Wed and limited mixing will keep highs from warming much despite rising heights aloft and warming 850 mb temperatures. Highs on Wed will avg in the mid-upper 50s most areas. The high slides off the coast Wed night, as a mainly dry cold front drops across the region very late Wed night through Thu morning. very moisture starved system, will carry just a 20% PoP early thu over the far NE. Lows Wed night will mainly range fm the upper 30s to mid 40s. Warmer and becoming mostly sunny Thu with a breezy downslope NW flow. Highs on Thu in the lower 60s N to the mid/possibly upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term begins with shortwave ridging and high pressure at the surface moving across the region on Friday ahead of the next upper trof. Mid temps Thursday night in the 30s, with high temps Friday in the 50s. This is a bit below normal for mid November. Next upper trof moves through the region in the Saturday through early Sunday time frame. Still timing differences between 12Z GFS/ECMWF, with the ECMWF still about 12 hours slower than the GFS, which has slowed about 6 hours from yesterday. Have gone with a model blend, which leans a little toward the ECMWF. Upstart is that any precipitation along the front will hold off until Saturday afternoon, and potentially Saturday evening, if ECMWF solution works out. Expect a warmer day on Saturday, with max temps in the 60s (potentially around 70 if ECMWF is correct), after low temps Friday night in the upper 30s and 40s. Trof moves offshore by Sunday morning, with a dry, but breezy/perhaps windy and colder day Sunday, with high temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Cold high pressure builds into the region Sunday through Monday. Low temps Sunday night in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with high temps next Monday in the 40s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An area of MVFR and IFR stratus continues to persist from the Ern Shore across SE VA and NE NC. As of 00z SBY/ORF/ECG all had MVFR cigs ~1.1-1.2kft. These conditions are expected to generally prevail overnight. There is the potential for SBY/ECG to drop to IFR this evening, and additionally stratus could scatter at ORF/ECG this evening before filling in again overnight. Across central VA, the sky cleared around sunset and some patchy fog has developed. This could potentially impact RIC and to a lesser extent PHF this evening, before drier air arrives from the NNW. Conditions gradually improve along the coast Tuesday morning as high pressure build over the region. High pressure remains over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. A mainly dry cold front crosses the area Thursday with high pressure returning Friday. High pressure moves offshore Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .MARINE...
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...915 pm update...have added the northern 2 marine zones to the SCA, as seas are approaching 5 feet at 44009, and NWPS guidance suggest seas will continue increasing to 6 feet overnight and Tuesday morning. ...previous discussion...Latest sfc analysis shows ~1032 mb high pressure centered over the Midwest with ~1020 mb low pressure off the DELMARVA with its attendant cold front stretching offshore to its south. The front pushes farther offshore tonight, with winds/wave/seas slightly increasing due to weak CAA. Have put all headlines into effect with this forecast package as SCA conditions are expected to commence within 12 hr. Maintained the marginal SCA over the Sound and southern Bay for 15-20 kt winds, and it is expected to come close to this over the northern Bay so will monitor in future shifts. Over the ocean, expect 15-25 kt winds with seas up to 5-6 ft...highest over NC coastal wtrs. 5 ft seas are psbl briefly over northern coastal wtrs but kept the headline further south where confidence is higher. High pressure builds into the area into Wednesday, with just some lingering 5 ft seas over southern coastal wtrs. A cold front crosses the area Thu again with marginal SCA conditions psbl following the fropa, followed by high pressure returning Fri.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS/WRS

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