Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171403 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1003 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast through Friday. A frontal boundary moves into the area Friday night, then stalls across the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Sfc hi pres remains situated invof wrn Atlantic attm...w/ highly amplified ridge along the E coast. Lo level flow has become SW...and will lead to substantial warming through the rest of the day. Unlike very warm wx event in late April (when dewpoints were at unseasonable levels - aoa 70F - more typical of summer)...dewpoints will remain in check (or even lower a bit due to mixing) this afternoon (mainly from the l-m60s). So...w/ highs expected to be in the 80s-l90s...apparent temperatures/heat indices not expected to rise too much higher than the actual temperature. Atmosphere will remain strongly capped...so PoPs will be very lo the rest of the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mostly clear and mild tonight with early morning lows in the 60s. Similar conditions for Thursday, with lingering SW flow bringing another very warm and slightly more humid afternoon. Highs Thu again averaging upper 80s to low 90s, with a few readings in the mid 90s likely. Models indicating some more convection along lee trough to the west. Given warm air aloft and lack of any real convective trigger locally, forecast remains dry over our local CWA. Weakening upper low lifting across the Great Plains today will push across the Great lakes by Thursday, and will finally nudge weakening cool front south towards the area on Friday. This feature will provide some weak forcing to set off some isolated to widely scattered showers/storms pushing across the area by late in the day Friday into Friday night. Despite strong sfc heating/instability and increasing llvl moisture, dynamics remain on the low end given only minimal wind shear and a weak convective trigger, provided by dampening shortwave crossing the mountains NW to SE through Friday. Have gone with slight to low end chance POP during this period. Given this general timing, can expect another very warm and moderately humid day, albeit slightly/modestly cooler with uptick in clouds and humidity. Highs Friday in the upper 80s to low 90s (low to mid 80s coastal sections). Early morning lows in the 60s to low 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An end to the summer-like wx expected this weekend as a cold front settles S through the FA Fri night-Sat morning...pushing into srn NC Sat afternoon. Models now in better agreement w/ that scenario. SCT shras-possible tstms expected (early) Fri night...then lowering PoPs Sat (NE-SW) as NE winds bring in cooler air. Models are more aggressive attm w/ widespread cloudiness Sat into Sun morning before any residual frontal boundary pulls back N Sun afternoon. A cold front will be approaching from the W Sun night-Mon morning...then push across the FA Mon afternoon-night w/ high prob (50-70%) for SHRAS/tstms. Clearing out/cooler Tue. Lows Fri night in the l-m60s. Highs Sat from the u60s-l70s near the coast to around 80F (well) inland. Lows Sat night in the u50s-around 60F N to the m60s SE. Highs Sun from the u60s-m70s at the coast to around 80F inland. Lows Sun night ranging through the 60s. Highs Mon in the u70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the m80s inland. Highs Tue mainly in the m-u70s. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions across area terminals this morning are expected to continue through the TAF period as high pressure lingers offshore through late week. Southwest winds are anticipated on Wednesday, becoming breezy for the afternoon, 10-15 knots with gusts to ~20 knots. Outlook: High pressure off the coast dominates wx through late week, with a summer-like pattern taking hold on SW winds. The next chance for scattered convection arrives late Friday into Saturday, as a frontal boundary stalls over the area. && .MARINE... Sfc high pressure settles over the wrn Atlantic through Fri night with mid-upper level ridging keeping any precipitation at bay. Winds S-SSW aob 15kt and persisting from this direction through Fri. Wind speeds increase late tonight through Fri morning and remain below SCA. A brief period of low-end SCA conditions (gusts barely 20kt Bay/seas barely 5ft nrn coastal waters) may be possible after midnight Thu night until roughly sunrise Fri morning. Seas generally 2-3ft with periods of up to 4ft nrn coastal waters late Thu aftn through Fri morning. Waves 1-2ft and possibly 2-3ft during same timeframe as higher seas. A cold front approaches the waters from the north on Fri and is expected to stall across the cntrl waters by Sat. Stronger onshore/NE winds develop and increase along/north of the boundary late Fri night into Sat. Low-end SCA conditions may be possible on Ches Bay for gusts to 20kt and coastal waters for seas building to 4-6ft. Although winds diminish below 15kt Sat night into Sun, the persistent onshore direction should keep seas elevated for most of Sun before subsiding below 5ft. The stalled front transitions into a warm front and is expected to slowly lift north of the waters during Sun...causing winds to shift to the SE. Persistent onshore period/swell should keep seas around 2-4ft Sun night into Mon. Waves 1-2ft Fri... increasing to 2-3ft Fri night once the boundary stalls over the waters. Persistent onshore swell and higher seas on the ocean should allow waves to build to 4ft in the mouth of Ches Bay Sat night. After which, waves average 1-3ft. && .CLIMATE... Here are the record highs for Wednesday (5/17)... Record Location High Year -------- -------- ------ Richmond 94 1974 Norfolk 93 1941 Salisbury 90 1944 Elizabeth City 95 1941 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...

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