Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180043 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 743 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A CLIPPER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC DEPICTS BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM FROM JUST OFF THE GA COAST NWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE COAST WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS INLAND. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT OBSERVED UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TODAY. COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS OF MID AFTERNOON WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED PARENT LOW OVER THE S CNTRL CANADA. HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET (150+ KT) OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THANKS TO 200+ PCT PRECIP WATERS OVER THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA. COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY AROUND 400 STILL CAUSES CONCERN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA. AS A RESULT...TORNADO WATCH 554 REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THRU EARLY EVENING...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY 7 OR 8 PM EST. THIS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EWD OVER SERN CANADA...DEEPENING TO AROUND 990MB THIS EVENING. A COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH TONIGHT AS SKIES RAPIDLY CLEAR WEST TO EAST. DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO PLUMMET...FALLING 30-40 DEGS IN 12 HOURS FROM 7PM TO 7AM. TEMPS WILL FOLLOWING...DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S NW TO LOW 50S SE BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 20S NW TO UPPER 30S SE BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR (ESPECIALLY IN THE SE) AROUND MID MORNING TUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... STRONG 175+ KT JET STREAK EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD TUES AS THE -2 TO -3 STD DEV UPPER CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT NEWD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. STRONG 1030-1034MB SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES TUES AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 970MB. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA WILL USHER IN A VERY DRY AND COLD MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED TUES AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A COLD/RAW/BREEZY DAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PLUNGE AROUND 100M AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -7 TO -8 (-3 STD DEV). THIS TRANSLATES TO AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO ONLY THE MID-UPPER 30S. CLIMATE RECORDS ARE MENTIONED BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NO RECORD LOW MAX IS IN DANGER TUES. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED TUES NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF S CNTRL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDS AS A CLIPPER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES...WITH SWLY WINDS WEDS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION WEDS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE NW LATE WEDS. THE CLIPPER FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS MORNING. SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. LOW 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. SFC HIGH THEN BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE ERN STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DRY WITH TMPS REMAINING BLO NORMAL THROUGH SAT. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE M40S-L50S. LOWS M20S-L30S. HIGHS MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERN FLOW TO DVLP. MSTR OUT AHEAD OF APPRCHG SYSTM FROM THE MID WEST BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WARMER WITH CHC POPS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGHS M50S-L60S. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRNT KEEPS SUN NIGHT RTHR WARM. LOWS U40S-U50S. ANTHR COMPLEX SYSTM ERLY NEXT WEEK AS TMPS / PCPN WILL ALL DEPEND ON FRNTL LCTN AS WRM FRNT LIFTS NORTH AND COLD FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE ANTHR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH TMPS ALONG THE COAST JUMPING INTO THE 70S BUT REMAINING IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. KEPT PCPN SHWRS ATTM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO FCST TSTRMS ATTM. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 23Z...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND PAST ALL THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF ISSUANCE. PCPN HAS DIMINISHED TO A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS. LOW CIGS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR CONDS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY LIMITED DIURNAL CU TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AS MUCH COLDER SURGES INTO THE AREA. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF STATES TUE AND WED... RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SUBSTANTIALLY AND SUBSIDENCE OCCURS. A DRY COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THU MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY AND VFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
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&& .MARINE... SRLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE W THEN NW THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CD FRNT. STRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND IT BUT APPEARS THE STRNGST MIXING NOT SEEN UNTIL AFTR 10Z TUE. GIVEN THE XPCTD MIXING / TIGHTENING PRS GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF CAA...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE CSTL WTRS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND & MIDDLE PART OF CHES BAY (NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT) WHERE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE PSBL STARTING LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY TUE. XPCT SCA`S TO REPLACE THE GALES AND CONT INTO WED MORNING AS THE CAA SLOWLY DMNSHS. HIGH PRS MOVES EAST WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NXT FRNT. SW WNDS INCRS TO NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS WITH A SHIFT TO THE W THEN NW BEHIND THE BNDRY. WINDS BECOME NORTH BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRS BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. && .CLIMATE... ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WX IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUE...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RIC 34/1959 ORF 36/1924 SBY 33/1959 ECG 38/1959 TUE NGT...RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RIC 18/1936 ORF 25/1959 SBY 17/1936 ECG 21/1959 WED...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RIC 37/1951 ORF 38/1951 SBY 35/1951 ECG 39/1951 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ631>638- 654-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...

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