Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231027 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 627 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST. THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD. 22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE...AND WILL CONT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EVENTUALLY LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE... DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFTS NE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT SCAS WL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024- 025. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>633. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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