Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 292352 AAA AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wakefield VA 752 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Bonnie will linger along the South Carolina coast tonight, and will slowly track northeast along the coastal Carolinas while weakening further through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest analysis indicating TD Bonnie now located just inland of Charleston SC (was downgraded from a tropical storm earlier today). Please continue to refer to discussions/forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center for the track on TD Bonnie. Upper level ridge has retreated farther off the Mid-Atlc coast and widespread showers have been affecting the CWA this aftn. WV/IR imagery and radar trends support continuing Likely to Categorical POPS into early evening for most areas, though skies are partially clearing over ern NC and will probably see some sunshine from time to time through sunset over southern VA and ne NC. High res models suggest the highest POPS/categorical will tend to shift to the N/NW zones after 00z, with high- end chc POPS persisting acrs the south. Has not been much in the way of lightning activity so far, but will maintain isolated tstm mention/scattered acrs the south. Main issue tonight will continue to be locally heavy rain, noting 12Z sounding from MHX at 2.18 PWAT (1.68 at WAL per 12Z), and latest SPC mesoanalysis shows PWATS now to be 2.00" or greater cwa-wide. Steering flow/MBE vectors suggest best chc for training cells has been along the coast, while storms move a little faster farther inland. This may change a bit this evening though as BUFKIT data suggests training becomes more of an issue inland as well. Will mention heavy rain in the gridded database acrs NW 1/2 of the cwa this evening due to high precip rates and additional potential localized flooding. Temps remain warm/humid this evening with lows genly 65-70 F tonight. TD Bonnie or it`s remnant low is very slow to weaken acrs SC and get slowly transported NE later tonight as broad, Upper level troughing pushes in from the SW. Bulk of widespread and heavy precip may weaken for awhile late in the evening/early morning, but expect to see it regenerate early Mon morning as increasing lift returns which will be further enhanced by upper divergence provided by RRQ of upper jet. Sfc trough remains centered inland, and gradually shifts east towards the coast by Mon aftn. Will have 80% POPS most areas Mon morning, some drying NW by aftn, but will maintain 60-80% POPS through the aftn elsewhere. Additional periods of locally heavy rain are likely with QPF amounts through mon evening to avg 1-2", more of this overnight/mon am west of I-95, and on Mon farther east. highs Mon held in the mid-upper 70s due to clouds and widespread precip. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TD Bonnie (or more likely the remnant low) looks to very slowly lift NE along the SC/NC coast through the period. Continued humid,though dew pts lower slightly into the mid 60s by Tue. Highs avg in the upper 70s/lower 80s both Tue-Wed with lows in the lower 60s NW to the upper 60s SE. Above climo POPS of 40-50% SE and 20-30% NW persist Mon night-Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Model consensus and NHC forecast centers Tropical Depression Bonnie (or the remnant low) just off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. An upstream trough and associated cold front approaches from the west. Will keep mention of chance POPs along the coast, as well the Piedmont as moisture increases from the west. Expect subsidence over central VA and hopes for dry conditions, but will keep slight chance POPs. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night as the approaching trough finally kicks off the coast in advance of the approaching upstream trough. Will keep mention of slight chance POPs, but overall dry conditions expected. The front drops into the forecast area Friday with increasing chances for showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Latest guidance now in good agreement with cutting off mid level energy over the Southern Plains, with the largest height falls over New England. Sensible weather impacts will be a quicker departure of the front off the coast Friday night into Saturday than previously forecast. Will keep mention of chance POPs Saturday, will drying conditions into Saturday night. Only a slight chance POP across the southeast forecast area for Sunday as the front stalls over the Carolinas in westerly flow aloft. Sky generally partly cloudy Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 80`s Thursday and Friday cool only a few degrees into the upper 70`s to low 80`s Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the 60`s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Circulation and moisture associated with T.D. Bonnie will continue to be the primary weather maker for the next 48-72 hours. Initial surge of shower/tstm activity has cleared all terminals but KRIC, where localized convergence zone will keep precipitation and IFR conditions going for at least another 2 hours. Additional scattered showers moving northward toward KECG, and will affect that terminal through 03Z. biggest questions next 12 hours will be future areal coverage and intensity of precipitation and amount of fog/stratus development overnight. Think IFR will be predominate at KRIC through at least 12Z Monday, as that terminal will be closest to inverted surface trough. Models have been very consistent in bringing stratus into KECG, and have followed previous forecast in that realm. Have also shown an increase in stratus at KPHF/KSBY and KORF, with IFR conditions all 3 terminals overnight. Timing and intensity of precipitation the hardest to pin down, and have used current radar trends, and hi-res model guidance for the next 6-12 hours. thereafter, think all terminals will slowly become mvfr by mid to late Monday morning. However, airmass will be marginally unstable, which means at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible at any time. Have not tried to time precipitation after 12Z Monday due to more scattered nature, and inconsistency of model guidance. Outlook...low pressure/remnants of Bonnie to the north will slowly move along the north carolina coast through Tuesday. A weak cold front moves across the region Tuesday aftn/night, temporarily shifting deepest moisture to/east of the coast. However the weakening/remnant tropical low pressure system is expected to linger near the Carolina coast through the middle of the week and keep rain chances in the forecast during this time, with highest chances along the coast. A stronger cold front moves into the area on Friday.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers Tropical Depression Bonnie just east of Charleston SC this afternoon. High pressure has pushed well offshore. Obs indicate southeasterly winds around 10 knots. Waves 1- 2 ft and seas 3 to 4 ft. Bonnie is expected to make very little northward progress Monday as a coastal trough sets up along the Mid- Atlantic coast. A wave of low pressure lifts along the front Monday afternoon over the Bay. Winds remain southerly over the waters at or below 15 knots Monday, but become light and variable behind the wave Monday night. TD Bonnie locates over eastern NC Tuesday with flow becoming onshore at or below 10 kt. Waves remain 1-2 ft and seas 3- 4ft. The gradient strengthens Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low locates in the vicinity of the Currituck sound. Onshore flow ramps up to around 15 kt Wednesday, with SCA conditions possible. Seas also build to 4 to 5 ft Weds. Waves 2-3 ft (up to 4 ft mouth of the bay). The low lifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday with flow becoming northerly. A cold front is forecast to reach the waters late in the week into next weekend. Sub-SCA conditions expected. For more information on TD Bonnie, please refer to NHC. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond prior to today had been 8.41", ranking as the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Rain has occurred today and with additional rain over the next 2 days, there is good potential to end as the wettest May on record. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MPR/WRS MARINE...SAM CLIMATE...

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