Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281428 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F. WEDNESDAY... UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S. THURSDAY... UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30- 40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND VFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME FOG EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF KRIC...WHERE RAIN FALL YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHC AT KRIC. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED/THU... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. NEXT CHC FOR SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG/WRS MARINE...TMG

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