Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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499 FXUS61 KAKQ 300800 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will become centered across the eastern states this weekend through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Current wv imagery depicts a trough over the Great Lakes with an upper ridge over the wrn Atlantic. At the surface, a weak trough is situated over the Mid-Atlantic region. The upper trough will gradually sink sewd today. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will track across PA/nrn VA/ne MD, with additional shortwave energy lifting ne across the Carolinas. Sct showers/tstms are expected to develop in vicinity of the surface trough today as mid-level shortwave energy provides lift. The best forcing will not be directly over the local area, so forecast PoPs will remain 40-50% and primarily concentrated west of the Bay. PW values per GEFS/SREF reach +2 st dev, so any showers/tstms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rain, although the forcing is not such to support sustained high rain rates. NAM/GFS generally depict 1200-2000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE today along with 25-30kt of 0-6km bulk shear on the srn flank of stronger westerlies to the n of the local area. As a result, a few loosely organized tstms are possible, which could produce localized strong wind gusts (wet microbursts). Temperatures early this morning range from the low to mid 70s. Temperatures should rise quickly into the 80s this morning under a partly to mostly sunny sky, before cu rapidly develop late morning into the afternoon. Highs will generally be in the mid/upper 80s with near 90 se.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The Midwest trough will slide into the region Sunday into Monday and take up residence over the eastern Conus. Mainly diurnally driven showers/tstms are possible Sunday with PoPs in the 30-50% range. With the trough in place will also see temps remain close to normal. Highs Sunday range from the mid/upr 80s north to the low 90s south, after morning lows in the 70s. The upper trough sharpens even further across the East Coast Sunday night into Monday as a more substantial shortwave trough tracks across the area helping to push cold front through the region by midday Monday. Pcpn chances Monday will be highest over se VA/ne NC, so chc pops (30%) will continue there, with slight chc (20%) elsewhere. Highs again generally range from the upr 80s to low 90s after morning lows in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary. With sfc high pressure building into New England early in the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90 degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints, and overall precip chances. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Other than isolated IFR/MVFR fog early this morning, expect mainly VFR conditions today into Sun morning. However, the combination of a warm front, deeper low level moisture, Shortwave energy, and vertical motion moving acrs the area this aftn into tngt, will bring a decent chc for showers and tstms at the taf sites. Did not mention any pcpn in tafs at this time due to POPs being 50% or less. Lesser chcs late tngt thru Sun morning, as that energy moves off the coast. There will be chcs again Sun aftn into Sun ngt, as a trough of low pressure lingers over the area. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any tstms. && .MARINE... Nw-n winds averaging 5-10kt prevail this aftn with only a slight chance for thunderstorms into this evening. Winds become more ne tonight and then e on Sat as high pressure builds across se Canada. Speeds will continue to average 5-10kt during this time. A front over NC tonight is expected to lift north Sat into Sat night with the wind becoming se 10-15kt. The front then settles over the region Sun into Mon and then slowly pushes off the coast Mon night into Tue. High pressure returns to the waters on Wed. There is a good chance for thunderstorms (30-40%) each aftn/evening Sat through Tue...with a slight chance for far srn coastal waters and Currituck Sound on Wed. Seas will average 2-3ft through the period with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...BMD/TMG

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