Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301015 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 615 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast through the Monday. A frontal boundary along the eastern shore will lift back north as a warm front today. A cold front pushes across the region Monday night with high pressure returning Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Note that all 4 climate sites broke record high min temps for 4/29. See cli section below or RER`s. Latest MSAS showing a dominate bermuda high off the sern coast. A backdoor cold front is currently located along the VA/MD line and may not move much farther south before lifting back north this afternoon. High res data has completely backed off on any pcpn with this boundary. Given no echoes on radar, went ahead and dropped all pops from the eastern shore early this morning. Sunrise special ST has developed over some areas expect this to mix out over the next few hours as the winds pick up. Partly to mostly sunny and hot as the early season heat wave continues today. H85 temps between 14-16C results in readings generally between 85-90 west of the bay. Cooler along the eastern shore given local sea breezes and wind shifts with the frontal boundary. Highs there 80-85 except remaining in the 70s at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly clr tonight except becoming pt cldy after midnight across the piedmont. Dry as any pcpn stays well west of the fa thru 12Z. Lows 65-70 except 60-65 eastern shore. Models continue to slow the eastward movement of the approaching cold front from the west Monday. Data suggests a dry morning with pops increasing mainly along and west of the I95 corridor in the afternoon. Dry along the coast thru 00Z Tue. Temps remain well above normal with highs 80-85 except remaining in the 70s at the beaches. The cold front crosses the region Monday night and pushes offshore by 12z Tuesday. Likely pops taper off to chc from NW-SE from 06-12z as drier air arrives from the NW. Cooler with lows from the upr 50s NW to mid 60s SE. SPC has included the western most AKQ zones in a MRGNL risk late Monday into Monday nite. Thinking is for isltd severe hail/damaging winds from storms crossing the mts during the evening hrs. Also expect some lclly hvy downpours psbl given the juicy airmass as PW`s apprch 1.5 inches. Low pressure tracks into ern Canada with high pressure building into the area Tues and Wed. A secondary (dry) trof moves north of the area by 12Z Wed. Look for dry and cooler conditions. Highs Tues 75-80, cooler at the beaches. Lows Tue night in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s. Highs Wed in the mid-upr 70s except upr 60s-lwr 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A complex system progged toward the end of the week. Low pressure develops over the deep south Wed then slowly lifts NE along the Applach mts Thurs and Fri. Latest models show the system getting cut off from the main flow and lingering across the region thru Sat. Meanwhile, this system will be able to tap a good amount of GOM / Atlantic moisture. The associated warm front lifts north across the area Thurs with chc pops all areas. Enough moisture for likely pops Thurs nite and Fri with lingering pops Fri nite into Sat. Most of the pcpn will be convective in nature resulting in the possibility of another extended period of rainfall. Stay tuned. Highs both Thu/Fri in the upr 60s NW to low-mid 70s SE. Lows Thu night mid-upr 50s NW to lwr 60s SE. Highs Sat mid 60s to lwr 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Backdoor cold front located along the VA/MD line at 12Z and may stay put this morning before moving back north as a warm front this afternoon. Sunrise special ST btwn 1-2K ft will mix out over the next few hrs as the SSW winds increase. Otw, SCT CU with SCT-BKN CI expected thru the day. SSW winds 10-20 KTS. Outlook: MVFR stratus and visbilities will be possible once again early Monday morning with a moist airmass in place. Conditions will briefly return to VFR on Monday before a frontal boundary crosses the region late in the day. This frontal boundary will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms along with sub-VFR conditions. Dry/VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday with potentially another system impacting the region Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... Broad Bermuda high pres allows for 10-15 kt S/SW flow today, with 1- 2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. Similar conditions into tonight with seas building to 4 ft. Next cold front approaches the area Mon, and with a tight pres gradient ahead of the front, winds increase to 15-25 kt over all wtrs during the day. Raised headlines over all wtrs, with a gale watch over northern cstl wtrs and a SCA elsewhere. Gale watch is for 50 percent confidence in a few hrs of gale gusts, with other areas expected to gust up to 25- 30 kt. Seas build to 6-9 kt over cstl wtrs with 3-4 ft waves over the Bay. These conditions will last into Mon night until the cold front crosses the wtrs. Winds/waves/seas decrease into Tue as CAA is weak behind the front, but seas aoa 5 ft may continue through late Tue. Sub-sca conditions everywhere by Wed. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood advisory continues in Mecklenburg county, with VDOT continuing to report numerous roads closed in the Kerr Dam area, creating ongoing navigation concerns. && .CLIMATE... All 4 climate sites broke record high minimum temps for 4/29. RIC...73...old record high min was 67 set in 1956 ORF...76...old record high min was 66 set in 1981 SBY...70...old record high min was 65 set in 1974 ECG...73...old record high min was 67 set in 1981 Record high temps for today 4/30: RIC...93 in 1974 ORF...93 in 1888 SBY...86 in 1974 ECG...90 in 1974 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-656-658. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS HYDROLOGY / CLIMATE...MPR

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