Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 102100 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Canadian high pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic tonight, before sliding offshore Sunday. A warm front will lift through the region Sunday night as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This area of low pressure will push north of the area Monday, with the associated cold front crossing the region late Monday. Another strong cold front impacts the region during the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Cold high pressure (1034mb) remains over the area tonight. Afternoon temperatures range from the upper 30s to around 40 and will quickly fall after sunset reaching the upper 20/low 30s by early evening. A nrn stream trough dives into the Great Lakes region, which could result in increasing high clouds late, especially across the north. There should still be several hours of rather ideal radiational cooling conditions and lows should once again drop at into the upper teens/low 20s, with 25-30F for coastal se VA/ne NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A shortwave trough pushes north of the region and shears apart Sunday as a more potent wave dives into the upper Midwest and a mid-level ridge axis remains over the Mid-Atlantic. The surface high slides offshore, but warming in s-se flow will be tempered by limited mixing. Sunday morning should be partly cloudy south to mostly cloudy north, with decreasing clouds possible during the aftn. Forecast highs will still be below normal and moderate only into the low/mid 40s to near 50 se. The vigorous nrn stream wave dives through the Great Lakes Sunday night with the mid-level ridge axis pushing offshore. This will allow for a warm front to lift through the Mid-Atlantic. Clouds quickly thicken and lower, with PoPs increasing for light rain from s-central VA to the coast during the late evening and early overnight hours as a coastal trough pushes newd ahead of the approaching system and interacts with the warm front. Lows Sunday night will likely occur during the evening hours, ranging from the mid 30s nw to the low 40s se. Becoming damp and chilly from the interior coastal plain to the Piedmont as the cool air will be stubborn to erode, with temperatures potentially rising to the low/mid 50s along the immediate coast by 12z Monday. No frozen pcpn is expected at this time across the far nw Piedmont counties as temperatures are expected to remain above 32F and remain steady or slowly rise once any pcpn arrives. A srn stream wave tracks across the region through midday Monday, as the nrn stream wave moves toward the Saint Lawrence Valley by aftn, which will push the associated cold front into the area. Forecast PoPs are highest (60-70%) from morning through mid-aftn. Deep-layered wsw flow will limit QPF, which at this time is forecast to be aob 0.3". Milder but temperatures will still struggle to rise above the upper 40s over the nw Piedmont, with mid 50s to around 60 se. The cold front pushes s of the region Monday night and stalls across the Carolinas. Lingering rain ends early Monday evening, with the sky becoming partly cloudy north. Lows range from the mid 30s n/nw to the mid 40s se. Another wave tracks along the front Tuesday, which could bring some rain to ne NC. Otherwise partly sunny north to mostly cloudy south with highs ranging from the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Sfc high pressure slides offshore Tue evening as another coastal trough develops along the Southeast Coast. Broad upper level troughing across nrn Ontario into the Great Lakes Region should keep the coastal system/persistent troughing generally suppressed along/south of the VA/NC border Tue night through Wed with winds remaining north around 10kt or less. By Wed night, the upper trough digs through the Mid Atlantic Region...pushing the coastal trough out to sea and bringing another arctic blast to the area. Winds shift to the northwest and increase to 15-20 mph along the immediate coast Wed night into Thu with the surge of colder air. Canadian high pressure builds into the region Thu/Fri. Overall, temps will be at to slightly below normal Tue night/Wed... becoming much colder Wed night through Fri (-1 Std Dev) with highs in the mid 30s nw to lower 40s se. Lows Wed night in the lower 20 nw to lower 30s se and Thu night in the upper teens nw to mid 20s far se.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure and fair weather will remain in control through this TAF period allowing for VFR conditions to continue. A few higher clouds may begin to filter into northern portions of the area this afternoon and into tonight, bases should remain at or above 10Kft. Winds will generally remain light (5-10 knots) and out of the W-NW this afternoon. Winds will remain light, but will begin to shift towards an easterly direction as we head into tomorrow. Outlook: High pressure begins to slide offshore on Sunday. There will be a chance for rain Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. Another cold front approaches the area on Wednesday, bringing a chance of rain to the area. && .MARINE...
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Sfc high pressure continues to build into the area this evening and slides over the waters late tonight into Sun morning. Winds generally w aob 10kt (15kt coastal waters north of Parramore Island through this evening). Winds become more se aob 15kt as the sfc high slides offshore and a warm front lifts north through the area during the day. Meanwhile, a low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes Region Sun night as a very weak coastal trough develops along the Southeast Coast. The weak trough will get pulled up twd Cape Hatteras Sun night ahead of a cold front associated with the Great Lakes low. This feature should bring rain up along the Mid Atlantic coast after midnight Sun night into Mon morning with a period of dry conditions possible over the waters the rest of the day on Mon as they reside well within the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Sw winds on Mon will experience a brief surge in the morning with speeds just below SCA criteria (aob 15kt Bay/Sound/Rivers...aob 25kt coastal waters). Seas average 1-2ft tonight-Sun...building to 3-4ft Sun night. Waves 1-2ft...building to 2-3ft late Sun night. The cold front crosses the waters Mon evening with scattered showers tapering off quickly as they get sheared apart. Seas may reach 5ft out near 20 nm (north of Parramore Island) just ahead of the frontal passage but should be short-lived. The airmass behind the front is modified/not much cooler and n winds are expected to remain aob 15kt all waters late Mon night. Weak sfc high pressure moves quickly into the region on Tue...resulting in light n winds aob 10kt Tue. The high slides offshore by Tue evening as another coastal trough develops along the Southeast Coast. Broad upper level troughing across nrn Ontario into the Great Lakes Region should keep the coastal system/persistent troughing generally suppressed along/south of the VA/NC border Tue night through Wed with winds remaining n aob 10kt. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. By Wed night, the upper trough digs through the Mid Atlantic Region...pushing the coastal trough out to sea and bringing another arctic blast to the area. Winds shift to the nw and increase to 15-20kt (gusts 25-30kt over coastal waters) Wed night into Thu with the surge of colder air. Seas build to 3-5ft/waves build to 3ft Wed night into Thu.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJB MARINE...BMD

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