Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290051 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 751 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POISED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND A DECENT INVERSION AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS TRAPPED BENEATH IT. LOWS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (PACNW)TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A POLAR LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO SCNTRL CANADA (MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO) AND MERGES WITH THE PACNW UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES AND FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NRN LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION... CAUSING UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SWLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITHIN A TRANSITION ZONE BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL BE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S (AROUND 40 DEGREES IMMEDIATE COAST)...AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE ANAFRONTAL WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRNT SLIDES FARTHER SE OF THE AREA MON NGT...WITH THE CHANCE OF POST-FRNTAL PRECIP CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FM THE W. COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVR THE NRN PIEDMONT BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER...FOR NOW MAINLY EXPECTING PLAIN RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERS INTO TUE WITH STILL SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND DECENT WAA. WITH STRONG HI PRES STRADDLING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL... WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LO 40S NW TO LO 50S. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS (NEAR CLIMO) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WED THRU FRI GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S AND LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. EXPECT CALM OR LGT AND VRBL WINDS TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BEGINS THE FORECAST WITH A WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUD DECK AFFECTING SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO SOUTHERLY WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR RAIN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE SE STATES THIS EVENG WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TNGT. SCA OVR ALL WATERS HAS ENDED AS WINDS/WAVES HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS ON SAT WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE HI POSITIONS OFFSHORE. COULD GET SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA OVR THE NRN BAY BUT EXPECTING MAINLY 15 KT WINDS THERE SAT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG SWLY AND SEAS OVR NRN WTRS APPRCHG 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRNT TO CROSS THE REGION ARRIVES MON NGT...WITH SCA CONDS PSBL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRNT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...MAS

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