Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201502 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1002 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves across the southeastern states through tonight, then slides offshore through Tuesday morning. Low pressure will move northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Current forecast on track with only minor changes made to the grids this morning. Latest weather analysis reveals ~1026mb surface high pressure over the Mid-South. The surface high will slide east across the Carolinas this afternoon, before sliding offshore late tonight. Lingering mid clouds have abated over northern Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva this morning, and expect plenty of sunshine later this morning and this afternoon. Highs today mainly in the upper 40s to near 50 on the eastern shore...to lower 50s inland. Mainly clear tonight with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The sfc high slides off the coast to begin the day on Tuesday. Resultant strengthening return flow initiates a short-lived warming trend, with highs 60-65. After a sunny start, some mid to high clouds begin to filter in from sw to ne. A quick moving northern stream system lifts from the TN Valley into the northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, pulling a cold front east to the Atlantic Seaboard by Tuesday night. Weak sfc low lift N-NE along the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic coast Tue night and Wed. Moisture from the system lifts north with the best lift remaining along the coast. Expect a period of showers mainly along and east of I-95 after midnight Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Likely pops along the bay and coast...chc pops inland. Chc pops along the MD coast Wed morning then drying out. Qpf generally under one quarter inch. Lows Tue night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed in the 50s except near 60 across nern NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds into the area Thursday resulting in a dry but cool holiday. Lows Wed night in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Highs Thurs in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. Another area of low pressure develops off the se coast late in the week but it appears the high to the north keeps any significant moisture south of the local area. Dry and continued cool Fri. Highs 50-55. Next cold front approaches from the NW late Sat then crosses then area early Sun. GFS wetter than ECMWF so will go with low chc pops Sat night for now. Warmer Sat ahead of it with highs 55-60. Lows Sat night in the 40s to near 50 se. Cooler behind it Sun with highs mid 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions across area terminals this morning, with VFR conditions to prevail through the 12z TAF period and into Tuesday evening, as high pressure builds back into the region later today through tonight. Outlook: High pressure slides offshore early on Tuesday. A weak trough of surface low pressure develops along the Carolina coast Wednesday with scattered showers possible at area terminals by later Tuesday into early Wednesday. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions are possible over the terminals during this timeframe. && .MARINE... Update...W-NW winds still 15-20kt along eastern side of Ches Bay and all coastal waters. Gusts to around 25 kt north of Parramore Island. Seas are persistently 3-5ft and have therefore extended SCA flags for srn waters to end at 1000 AM (same time as nrn waters) this morning. Previous discussion...Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated the rest of today through tonight as high pressure becomes centered over the Carolinas and slides offshore late tonight. W-NW winds becoming S-SW tonight with sub-SCA speeds. A Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front into the Ohio Valley Tue...approaching the waters late Tue night. Pressure gradient tightens over nrn half of area during this time. SW winds should average 10-15kt north/5-10kt south Tue and diminish through Tue night as wind direction becomes more westerly late. Seas 2-4ft north/2-3ft south this aftn through Tue night. Waves generally 1-2ft. Meanwhile, low pressure develops off the Carolina coasts and tracks northeast...passing well east of Cape Hatteras by Wed aftn. Next chance for SCA conditions should be Wed/Wed night for all waters except York, Rappahannock, and upper James rivers. Seas 3-5ft; waves 3-4ft. High pressure rooting itself over the Ohio Valley to TN/mid- Mississippi valleys Wed night through Thu night will allow another low pressure wave to track northeast from the Southeast Coast to an offshore location farther east of Cape Hatteras during this time. Best pressure gradient appears to stay well south of the local waters, therefore sub-SCA N-NW wind speeds are anticipated. Seas slowly subside from 3-5ft Thu to 2-4ft Thu night/Fri. Waves 2-3ft subsiding to 1-2ft during same timeframe. High pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic Region for Fri with light and variable winds expected. && .EQUIPMENT...
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The fan on the temperature sensor at the Richmond ASOS (KRIC) has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations (Hourly METAR and SPECIs). However, the 5-min high resolution data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min temperature data from KRIC until our techs can repair the sensor, likely today. KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and expected to arrive Wednesday.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD EQUIPMENT...MPR

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