Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 291519
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1119 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
A cold front will slide off the coast this morning. High pressure
builds in from the north this afternoon as the front stalls across
the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches the region Friday,
stalling along the coast through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest GOES water vapor imagery and RAOB plots depict broad cyclonic
flow over the Northeast CONUS. The next shortwave set to reach the
Mid-Atlantic region is located over the upper Midwest. At the
surface, last evenings cold front has pushed offshore with the
southern portion of the front over the Carolinas. High precipitable
waters remain along the coast, but per blended precipitable water
imagery values have dropped below 1 inch inland. Best moisture
pushes offshore today as the aforementioned shortwave digs into the
upper Ohio River Valley. Increasing winds aloft and limited height
falls will result in modest forcing for ascent along the frontal
boundary today. Have trimmed POPs back to only northeast North
Carolina, where weak flow may induce sea breeze boundaries. Dry
elsewhere under a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky. Near seasonal
today with highs in the mid to upper 80`s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with 20-30% pops acrs at least the srn half of the
area this evening into Thu morning, as that energy/lift slides
ene to the cst. Lows tngt in the 60s to near 70. High pres will
remain cntrd to the NNW of the area during Thu, as the latest
model guidance now shows that frntl boundary lifting back nwrd
into SE VA with weak lo pres areas moving along it. Thus, have
adjusted pops to 20-40% acrs the region for Thu aftn into Thu
evening. Highs on Thu in the lower to mid 80s.
Decreasing POPs fm W to E Thu night into Fri morning, as the frntl
boundary gets pushed ese of the region again due to upr trough
digging into the Great Lakes and OH valley. Lows in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.
That trough digs acrs the Great Lakes and twd the Mid Atlc region
during Fri. An associated cold front will push fm the Ohio Valley
into wrn VA by late Fri. Very warm and humid in advance of this
frnt with precipitable waters increasing toward 1.5 to 1.75
inches. Dewpoints warm back into the upper 60`s to lower 70s. Will
keep mention of 30-40% POPs Fri aftn into Fri evening for showers
and tstms. Highs in the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend
into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will
transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into
early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant
pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough
will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly
diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm,
moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with
the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in
zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally
driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible,
especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday.
Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool
front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of
salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area.
For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or
even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along
the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s.
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front pushing offshore attm, and will become stalled near
the ne NC coast by early aftn. VFR conds to persist through the
taf period. Winds will turn to the NNW inland and NNE closer to
the coast with speeds only 5-10 KT. Due to the stalled front,
isolated showers/tstms possible later this aftn across far
southern VA/ne NC but chances are far too low to include in TAFS.
The stalled front will remain the focus for at least isolated
showers/tstms across mainly southern portions of the forecast
region tonight through Fri, and guidance has trended a little
wetter even as early as tonight, though confidence in this is low.
Generally, expect a chance for showers/tstms mainly during the
aftn/evening hrs through Sunday.
Sub-SCA conditions to prevail for the next several days. Winds generally
from the W to SW 10 KT or less early this morning as the (weak) cold
front approaches the waters. A relatively weak pressure gradient and
little to no cold advection with this front, so expect only a wind
shift to the NNW this morning, followed by a seabreeze interaction
to dominate later this afternoon and evening (shifting to the E/NE
for most areas. The weak front/sfc trough will move back a little
north over the coastal Plain on Thu and will tend to see a slightly
more widespread SE flow around 10 KT across the waters, with flow
becoming more to the S by Fri, again averaging around 10 KT. Bay
and river waves will avg 1-2 ft with coastal seas 2-3 ft. A slightly
stronger cold front will shunt the boundary back south a bit Late
Sat and beyond, though some uncertainty remains, i.e. this front
may struggle to get completely through the local area.
RIC now up to 7.81" for the month of June through 2am this morning
(including the showers that brought additional rain early this
morning). This makes 2016 the 7th wettest June on record (2004 is
wettest June with 9.93"). Also, the May-June total at RIC now
stands at 17.60" and is the 2nd wettest (1972 is wettest with 17.69").