Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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618 FXUS61 KAKQ 201525 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1125 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track northeast to a position off the southern New England coast later today, then meander there through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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TS Jose continuing to circulate SSE of srn New England through the rest of the day. Far ENE locations of FA remain in wrn periphery of the storms circulation...and will have SCT-BKN SC-AC and possible ISOLD shras (into this afternoon). Otherwise...subsidence evident on satl over the rest of the FA and will result in a mostly sunny...warm day. Moisture now over the ern OH Valley into the central mtns expected to stay WSW of the local area. Near term guidance suggests a diminishing trend and no convection reaching far WSW zones. Highs 85-90F...except l80s at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the fa then dissipates after 00Z across the NC piedmont. Otw, mstly clr to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s. Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS early next week as the remnant low (Jose) slowly circulates ESE of New England. Other than periods of SC off the ocean (by the late in the weekend-early next week) esp at the coast...expect dry wx with above normal temps. Highs Sat-Sun in the mid-upr 80s except lwr 80s at the coast. Highs Mon and Tue in the upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows in the low-mid 60s inland, upr 60s to around 70F at the coast. Extended models continue to struggle with the tropical systems into early next week. It may depend on where Jose`s low tracks which may eventually help to steer Maria. The latest GFS and to a certain point the ECMWF has Maria on a similar track to what Jose did (i.e. moving north along the eastern seaboard my mid week, but how close to the coast???). To early for anything specific, but we may be doing this all over again for Maria next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TS Jose continues to lift NE away from the area today. SCT-BKN MVFR SC along the coast this morning becomes SCT CU this aftn. WNW aob 10 KTS. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift north of the waters this morning before moving off the northeast coast later today. Jose will linger off the northeast coast through the weekend before dissipating. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will begin to impact the waters by this weekend. Have allowed the SCA headlines at the mouth of the Bay to end, with the only headlines now confined to the coastal waters for 5-8 ft seas. Marine conditions are expected to continue to improve through the aftn, with winds diminishing to 10-15 kt or less across the coastal waters after 18Z and 5-10 kt or less elsewhere. Sub- SCA conditions are expected through Thursday for a majority of the waters except for lingering 5 ft+ seas on the coastal waters. Seas will once again ramp up Friday and into the weekend as swells from distant Hurricane Maria begin to impact the region. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be be needed for the coastal waters by this weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Made some adjustments to the forecast, with tidal departures now about the same in the upper Bay as the lower Bay (averaging close to +1.5 ft throughout). This due to water not exiting the Bay efficiently (looking at currents at the Cape Henry channel marker currents). The level at Cambridge may be exacerbated by an additional few tenths of a foot due to NW winds ~10 kt trapping water in the inlet. Have upgraded to a coastal flood warning for the Bay side of the MD eastern shore (Dorchester/Wicomico/Somerset) for the upcoming high tide cycle later this aftn/early evening. Elsewhere, will allow the warning for the VA ern shore and ocean side of the MD shore to expire shortly after noon, with just additional minor flooding anticipated for the tide tonight and possibly on Thu. Will update these products early this aftn with additional coastal flood advisory headlines. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024- 025. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099- 100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075-077-078-084>086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB/MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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