Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250919 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 519 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions will continue today as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Conditions improve on Friday. Warmer temperatures and chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the west on Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A warm front remains stuck in place across NE NC early this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is making its way east across the Piedmont of NC. Based on trends in the sfc obs and the strength of the in-situ wedge setup across the area this morning, it`s going to be hard for the warm front to make any progress north. Having said that, best chance of additional tstms early this morning will remain across our NC counties. Elsewhere, widespread showers (some heavy) will continue to lift NNE across the area this morning, finally ending from SW to NE as the cold front to the west passes. Expecting that to happen between 10-14z. Will maintain high pops everywhere until around 12z, then lowering to slight chc through late morning. Potent upper low over the OH Valley this morning lifts NE across the mountains through the day. A strong shortwave trough will lift across the mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/early evening. PoPs ramp up quickly again by Noon...to 55-70% from the Piedmont to central VA to the MD Ern Shore, with 40-50% far SE. 500mb flow of 45-55 kt is expected along with modest instability. Therefore...a few stronger to marginally severe storms are possible. The main threat would be wind and hail as low-level shear is minimal but a decent cold pool aloft will exist. Additional QPF this aftn/evening should average up to ~0.25" with locally higher amounts possible. Highs today in the mid 70s W of I-95 to the upr 70s to near 80 across eastern portions of the FA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper low continues to lift NE across PA/NY/New England late tonight into Fri. Drier conditions finally arrive as deep layered WNW flow develops over the region. Some lingering mid- level energy could result in SCT-BKN CU mid/afternoon Fri. Otherwise...drier and breezy with highs in the upr 70s to low 80s, after morning lows in the mid 50s W to low 60s at the coast. Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW Fri night into Sat. Differing potential/timing in arrival of weak S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon. Combination of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft may result in at least SCT convective development. Otherwise...partly cloudy Fri night-Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the upr 50s NW to the low 60s SE. Highs Sat from the mid/upr 70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the mid 80s inland. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long term period starts off Sat night into Sun with a warm front in the vicinity and plenty of energy passing through the WNW flow aloft. This will lead to a chance of shras/tstms everywhere, with low temps in the 60s Sat night and high temps in the low/mid 80s Sun. Continued chance of rain into Mon with a weak cold front passing through the area. Highs again in the low/mid 80s. Drier weather into Tue and Wed behind the front, but still cannot rule out the chance of a shra or tstm with continued cyclonic flow aloft. High temps in the upr 70s to mid 80s both days. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR to LIFR CIGS continue across much of the area early this morning. MVFR CIGS are present at KORF/KECG. Showers will continue to lift NNE across the area through 10-14z as a cold front passes. Conditions will improve to VFR once the front passes. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by this afternoon as an upper trough moves overhead. Reduced flight conditions are possible. Drier/VFR wx returns by Fri as weak high pressure builds over the region. Unsettled conditions return for the weekend when another frontal boundary affects the Mid Atlantic States. && .MARINE... Latest MSAS has the frontal boundary stalled just south of the Albemarle Sound westward to a cold front crossing the mts. The boundary is still progged to lift north as a warm front this morning before the cold front crosses the waters this afternoon and evening. Once again, a challenging forecast as the models continue to show different solutions with respect to the frontal movements. Thus, will basically keep the current forecast going with some minor changes made to the grids and headlines. Consensus suggests several bouts of SCA level winds over the next 24- 36 hours. Thus, elected to keep just one headline through Friday to cover the winds but tweaked directions a bit based off the frontal movements. SW winds 15-20 KTs through this evening become west at the same speeds late tonight and Friday as the cold front moves offshore. Went ahead and added SCA to the Currituck Sound. Data also supports 15-20 kts today across the lower James River so added a SCA headline there. Current sea obs in line with WNA forecast in keeping 4-5 ft seas through Friday across the coastal waters (highest out near 20 NM). Weak high pres builds in for late Fri leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca conditions expected Fri night into the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The continued onshore flow combined with high astro tides will result in elevated water levels through Friday. The SSE winds continue to pile up the water across the middle Ches Bay so based off the latest data, went ahead and extended the coastal flood advisory for the bay side of the lower Md eastern shore for the next high tide cycle. Also issued coastal flood statements for the Va northern neck and Atlantic coastal waters from OXB-Cape Charles for levels approaching minor flood levels. See CFWAKQ for more details.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR

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