Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 150602
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
102 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary, resulting
in periods of unsettled weather through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The current surface analysis shows high pressure centered off
the New England coast with a ridge axis continuing to extend to
the sw across the Delmarva and into Ern NC. Weak low pressure
remains situated across WV/western MD, with a weak low also off
the coast of the Outer Banks. The flow aloft is from the WNW
with a shortwave trough presently passing across the Nrn Mid-
Atlantic. This is producing areas of light rain across the Ern
Shore and back into E-central VA. PoPs will taper off quickly
after midnight, with only a slight chc for coastal ne NC after
09z. QPF amounts will be light and avg 0.10" or less (all rain
as P-type). Temperatures this evening range from the mid 30s
over the Lower MD Ern Shore to the low 40s across srn VA/ne NC
under an overcast sky. Temperatures will remain steady until
after 06Z, with lows then falling to the low- mid 30s N to
around 40 F far S. Not a concern for mixed precip even as
temperatures over the N may fall to 32 F or colder by sunrise
since the precip should be ending by 06Z or shortly thereafter.
The latest GFS/NAM model data suggests a bit more of a push
with the shortwave late tonight into Sunday, enabling sfc high
pressure over the Great Lakes to move SE into the mid-Atlc
region by midday. Thus, have gone a little more optimistic for
the day, with cloudy skies early on turning partly sunny for
most of the CWA. In general, the far W/SW zones would have the
highest chance for remaining mostly cloudy, while the NE should
become at least partly sunny if not mostly sunny. Raised high
temperatures a few degrees given a little more mixing and
sunshine (though stayed a few degrees below latest MAV/MET
numerical guidance). Expecting highs from the mid 40s to around
50 F most areas (with lower 50s possible if skies clear out even
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models begin to spread moisture back NNE into the region Sun
night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge axis (invof
TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant pcpn (-RA)
will remain weak. Thus...will have 30-40% PoPs across the
piedmont to I-95 late Sun night...lowering through the day Mon.
Skies remain partly cloudy longer Sun night over the E/NE so
some lows in the upper 20s will be possible from the nrn Neck to
the eastern shore...with lows in the lower-mid 30s elsewhere.
Thicknesses are too warm where they may be precip so just rain
as P-type with temperatures above 32 F. Cloudy with CAD setup
(but little chc for precip on Mon. Highs Mon in the low 40s NW
to around 50F far SE. Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the
wrn Great Lakes on Tue, lifting a warm front N of the local
area. Still uncertain on how much (if any) sun develops so
while temps moderate, highs may not get out of the 50s (will
have lower 60s SE for now).
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended
period. Will continue to go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for
showers. Best chcs will be Tue night/Wed and again Fri night/Sat.
Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, and ranging fm the
upper 30s to upper 40s Wed night, Thu night, and Fri night.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hi pres is centered off the New England coast as of 06Z/15
w/ a surface ridge axis extending to the SW into the Mid-
Atlantic region. A stationary front is situated across SC...w/
weak sfc lo pres off the Outer Banks. Aloft...s/w is moving off
the nrn Mid- Atlantic coast taking -RA off the coast. Cigs are
expected to lower to MVFR/IFR through (early/mid) morning. Vsby
is generally expected to remain aoa 4sm. Cigs are expected to
lift N-S w/ some clearing expected by aftn. Sfr hi pres will
remain over the region Sun night into Mon...although mid and
high clouds are expected to increase Monday. A warm front pushes
into the FA later Mon night and lifts N of the region Tue. This
could produce some MVFR cigs late Mon night into Tue morning. A
cold front approaches from the NW Tue night and crosses the
area Wed. This will bring a chc of rain along with degraded
flight conditions. High pressure is expected to return Thu.
SCA will remain in effect for the srn two coastal zns (656/658)
until 7 pm this evening, due to seas near 5 ft. Otherwise, a
weak northerly surge is expected late tngt into early Sun aftn
morning, as sfc high pressure builds fm the midwest into the
lower Great Lakes. But, winds are expected to stay just below
SCA criteria. A warm front will lift north through the area
during Tue, with winds becoming SSW ahead of the next cold
front which crosses the region Tue night into Wed.