Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280149 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 949 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SFC HI PRES REMAINS CENTERED BTWN LAKES HURON AND ERIE THIS EVENING...AND BUILDS SLOWLY E INTO NE CONUS THROUGH TNGT. A VERY PLEASANT EVE XPCD ACRS THE FA...W/ SKC N...PCLDY S (MNLY CI). PATCHY FG AGN XPCD...THOUGH NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD/DENSE. LO TEMPS INTO THE 50S MOST INLAND PLACES...L60S ALG THE CST (IN SE VA/NE NC). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONTINUED NICE WX ON SUN...SOME INCRS IN CLOUDS IS XPCD ACRS SERN ZONES ON SUN AS A CSTL FNT (INVERTED TROUGH) BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BUT CONDS STILL AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (AT WORST) THERE (AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE). HIGHS AVG IN THE U70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE L80S (WELL) INLAND. A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE UPPER FLOW LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS. THE RESULTANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE MON...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR MON...ALTHOUGH BULK OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY SW OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING FLOW AHEAD OF THE S/W...BUT BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS LOOKS TO STAY JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL BRING INCRSG CLDNS OVR THE FA DURING MON...HIGHEST POPS W AND SW OF I95 CORRIDOR (30-40%). DUE TO INCRSG CLDS...WINDS FM THE NE AND WEAKER LATE SEP SUN...WILL LEAN A TAD LWR THAN GUID FOR TEMPS...ESP ALONG/W OF I95. HI TEMPS IN THE U70S E...TO L70S W. SLO MOVEMENT OF A WK SFC LO PRES SYS...AND ACCOMPANYING MID/UPR LVL TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MON NGT THROUGH TUE WILL KEEP CLDS AND LIKELY TO HI CHC POPS ACRS SRN VA TO ACRS NE NC. FARTHER TO THE N...CLDNS MAY TEND TO BREAK AND ANY POPS FCST TO RMN AOB 30% THROUGH THE PD. LO TEMPS MON NGT IN THE U50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE U60S TO ARND 70F ACRS SRN 1/3RD OF VA AND ACRS NE NC...TO L/M70S OVR REST OF THE FA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... POPS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT LINGERED LKLY TO LOW END CHC POPS INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH PROLONGED NE FLOW/LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS THE OPEN (LESS AMPLIFIED) GFS SOLUTION, BUT THE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES VARY QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. LONG STORY SHORT, SUSPECT THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION IS A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE CONSISTENT UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS, DID DELAY CLEARING A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS DOWN IN ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING CLOUDS/DZ. ULTIMATELY, POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED. SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATER WED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALL THE WAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT LOTS OF DRY AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED FOR PATCH MVFR/IFR FOG FOR PHF AND SBY. ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR WON OUT AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION WERE OBSERVED. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING...EXPECT THE FOG TO BE A LITTLE LESS IN COVERAGE. SO OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT USING LAST NIGHT AS A GUIDE...HAVE KEPT SOME MVFR GROUND FOR FOR SBY AND PHF AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE AGAIN UNDER THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANY FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME HIGH CIRRUS COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR AVIATION RESTRICTIONS WILL COME MON AFTN INTO TUE...AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF RACES NWRD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE W. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NE WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND DIMINISH TO ~10KT ON SUNDAY. WILL DROP THE SCA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS NOW GENERALLY 3-4 FT OVER COASTAL WATERS...AND NWPS/WAVEWATCH AGREE WITH KEEPING SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO DETERIORATE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IMPACT THE WATERS. FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NE AND GRADUALLY RAMP BACK UP INTO SCA RANGE BY LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RE-SHARPENS COURTESY OF 1032+MB SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MAM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...MAM

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