Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220134 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 934 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40% POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20 ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST). THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS TIME TO AT LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST LOCATIONS GOING TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EASTERN SHORE. OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
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&& .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ

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