Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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718 FXUS61 KAKQ 150602 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 102 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary, resulting in periods of unsettled weather through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The current surface analysis shows high pressure centered off the New England coast with a ridge axis continuing to extend to the sw across the Delmarva and into Ern NC. Weak low pressure remains situated across WV/western MD, with a weak low also off the coast of the Outer Banks. The flow aloft is from the WNW with a shortwave trough presently passing across the Nrn Mid- Atlantic. This is producing areas of light rain across the Ern Shore and back into E-central VA. PoPs will taper off quickly after midnight, with only a slight chc for coastal ne NC after 09z. QPF amounts will be light and avg 0.10" or less (all rain as P-type). Temperatures this evening range from the mid 30s over the Lower MD Ern Shore to the low 40s across srn VA/ne NC under an overcast sky. Temperatures will remain steady until after 06Z, with lows then falling to the low- mid 30s N to around 40 F far S. Not a concern for mixed precip even as temperatures over the N may fall to 32 F or colder by sunrise since the precip should be ending by 06Z or shortly thereafter. The latest GFS/NAM model data suggests a bit more of a push with the shortwave late tonight into Sunday, enabling sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes to move SE into the mid-Atlc region by midday. Thus, have gone a little more optimistic for the day, with cloudy skies early on turning partly sunny for most of the CWA. In general, the far W/SW zones would have the highest chance for remaining mostly cloudy, while the NE should become at least partly sunny if not mostly sunny. Raised high temperatures a few degrees given a little more mixing and sunshine (though stayed a few degrees below latest MAV/MET numerical guidance). Expecting highs from the mid 40s to around 50 F most areas (with lower 50s possible if skies clear out even more). && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models begin to spread moisture back NNE into the region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will have 30-40% PoPs across the piedmont to I-95 late Sun night...lowering through the day Mon. Skies remain partly cloudy longer Sun night over the E/NE so some lows in the upper 20s will be possible from the nrn Neck to the eastern shore...with lows in the lower-mid 30s elsewhere. Thicknesses are too warm where they may be precip so just rain as P-type with temperatures above 32 F. Cloudy with CAD setup (but little chc for precip on Mon. Highs Mon in the low 40s NW to around 50F far SE. Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the wrn Great Lakes on Tue, lifting a warm front N of the local area. Still uncertain on how much (if any) sun develops so while temps moderate, highs may not get out of the 50s (will have lower 60s SE for now). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended period. Will continue to go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for showers. Best chcs will be Tue night/Wed and again Fri night/Sat. Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, and ranging fm the upper 30s to upper 40s Wed night, Thu night, and Fri night. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc hi pres is centered off the New England coast as of 06Z/15 w/ a surface ridge axis extending to the SW into the Mid- Atlantic region. A stationary front is situated across SC...w/ weak sfc lo pres off the Outer Banks. Aloft...s/w is moving off the nrn Mid- Atlantic coast taking -RA off the coast. Cigs are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR through (early/mid) morning. Vsby is generally expected to remain aoa 4sm. Cigs are expected to lift N-S w/ some clearing expected by aftn. Sfr hi pres will remain over the region Sun night into Mon...although mid and high clouds are expected to increase Monday. A warm front pushes into the FA later Mon night and lifts N of the region Tue. This could produce some MVFR cigs late Mon night into Tue morning. A cold front approaches from the NW Tue night and crosses the area Wed. This will bring a chc of rain along with degraded flight conditions. High pressure is expected to return Thu. && .MARINE... SCA will remain in effect for the srn two coastal zns (656/658) until 7 pm this evening, due to seas near 5 ft. Otherwise, a weak northerly surge is expected late tngt into early Sun aftn morning, as sfc high pressure builds fm the midwest into the lower Great Lakes. But, winds are expected to stay just below SCA criteria. A warm front will lift north through the area during Tue, with winds becoming SSW ahead of the next cold front which crosses the region Tue night into Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/ALB MARINE...TMG

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