Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 311554 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY. MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE. ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK. THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3 FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...SAM/WRS MARINE...SAM

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