Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 181136
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
636 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
A cold front pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning.
High pressure then builds in from the west tonight and settles
over the area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast
Thursday night as another front moves in by Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows ~1009 mb low pressure over upstate NY
with its attendant cold front stretching down through central
VA/NC. Iso-Sct showers continue this morng along/ahead of the
front as a strong mid-level shortwave trough approaches from the
NW. The cold front drops through the area later this morning,
and with deeper mixing and flow becoming westerly in low levels,
skies will improve to partly/mostly sunny from west to east.
Lowered high temps for today a bit with this forecast
package...mainly lwr 60s inland areas with upr 50s Lwr Eastern
Shore. Near the coast/Hampton Roads, with the strong shortwave
aloft tracking into the area from 12-18Z, expect some
redeveloping clouds from 15-21Z and will maintain at least
20-30% POPS there.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry/mostly clear tonight and Thu as sfc high pressure settles
over the area. Lows tonight in the mid/upr 30s inland to the
lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. Next system approaches
from the W/SW Thu night/Fri, with the latest guidance slowing
down the onset of pcpn until daytime Fri. Still looks like
enough of a good overrunning scenario to maintain likely POPS
all areas for Fri. Highs in the low/mid 50s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temps will continue to dominate the extended period
acrs the area. A warm front and associated low pressure will
lift NE or E of the area Fri night, with weak high pressure
building over the region for Sat into Sat evening. Showers will
be exiting NE or E of the CWA Fri night, with dry wx for Sat.
Sun into early Tue, strong upper low pressure will lift fm the
srn Plains/lower MS valley northeast into ern OH/wrn PA. This
will result in waves of moisture/strong lift up into the region
during this period. So, have gone with likely POPs everywhere,
esply Sun aftn into Mon evening. Pcpn chances decrease fm SSW to
NNE Mon night into Tue morning, as low pressure moves away to
the NNE. Dry wx should return for Tue aftn/evening.
Max temps will range fm the lower 50s to the lower 60s, with
lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A warm front stays north of the area this morning as a cold
front sweeps through the region. VFR to start off the 12Z TAF
period over SE terminals with MVFR at KRIC and IFR at KSBY.
These conditions may continue over the next few hours with the
front in the vicinity. MVFR/IFR psbl at the other three
terminals as well but would be short-lived and not confident
enough to include in the TAFs attm. Could see some showers as
well especially near the coast. Conditions will improve to VFR
everywhere by midday as the cold front pushes offshore, and NW
winds gust to ~20 kt.
Outlook: High pressure builds over the area behind the cold
front allowing for VFR conditions tonight into Thursday.
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible late Thursday and into
Friday as the next low pressure system approaches the region.
Dry weather returns for Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
A sfc cold front is located across cntrl VA early this morning and
is expected to cross the waters from nw to se after sunrise...
exiting the NE NC coast by mid-late morning. Sw winds generally
10-15kt Bay/Ocean/Sound with gusts around 20kt over coastal waters.
Cooler post-frontal air is expected to arrive around mid-late
morning...resulting in a more uniform increase in nw winds rather
than a typical surge over the waters. Speeds still generally
aob 15kt with gusts around 20kt on coastal waters. Seas 2-3ft;
Not much change to the overall weather pattern/forecast through Sun.
Sfc high pressure builds in from the west tonight and nw-n winds
will gradually diminish to 10kt or less by Thu morning. High
pressure then resides over the waters through Thu night with light
and variable winds anticipated Thu aftn through Thu night. Seas
2-3ft tonight through Thu...building to 2-4ft due to nly swell from
the slowly departing Wed system (despite being far enough offshore
to have no other significant impacts to the marine forecast). Waves
1-2ft. Sfc high gets pushed offshore Fri morning as an upper low
swings through the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic regions during Fri.
Winds become se-s aob 10kt. A sfc low is anticipated to develop
along a warm frontal boundary associated with this feature and then
develop into a coastal low off the far SE VA/NE NC coast late Fri
night. The coastal low may linger just off the Cape Hatteras coast
on Sat with weak high pressure building nw of the area during the
day. Winds become more n-ne Sat/Sat night with speeds no higher than
10kt as the coastal low develops just south of the local marine
area. The 2-4ft seas persist Fri into Sat night with a brief lull of
2-3ft seas during the day on Sat. Waves continue at 1-2ft through
Sat. Meanwhile, a more vigorous low pressure system exits the Four
Corners Region and swings across TX/OK and the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Sun. A warm front extending ewd from this low will be
linked with the coastal low...eventually lifting the warm front
north into the area as the sfc low deepens and becomes
negatively-tilted. The pressure gradient tightens in response to the
incoming sfc low and winds become more onshore/ely with speeds
increasing to 10-15kt. Seas expected to build to 3-5ft late in the
day; waves building to 2-3ft within the same timeframe.