Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270651 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 251 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER MD/DE...WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR KBWI TO KGED. THE FRONT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WNW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SSW OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS ONLY AROUND 20 KT AND INSTABILITY HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS W/ LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY JUST SOME BRIEF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. FARTHER SOUTH...APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO NC WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20-30% CHC ACRS FAR SRN VA. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS TO AVG 60-65 F ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...COOLER ACRS THE ERN SHORE...MID-UPPER 50S (ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FORECAST). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PD WED-FRI. FNT WILL STALL OVR NC ON WED...W/ SFC WNDS FM THE ENE N OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN COOLER CONDS. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN SHORE) ON WED. WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. HI TEMPS WED M50S-L60S NE TO 70-80F SW. THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES A BIT BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA BY LT WED NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE 50-70% POPS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...TAPERING TO 20-40% ON N AND NE FM WED NGT THROUGH THU MRNG. A BIT OF LWRG TO POPS DURING THU...THOUGH STILL LARGELY 30-50%. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC. REMNANT FNTL BNDRY TO RMN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NGT INTO FRI. MDLS HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR TO MUCH PCPN BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. POPS 30-50% THU NGT...20-40% FRI. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE AS OF 06Z. REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SRN NJ INTO DE INDICATE STRATUS WITH CIGS ~500FT. SBY NOW HAS A BKN LAYER AT 500FT...AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY DROP SWD...WITH THE WIND SHIFT (TO NE) NOT ARRIVING AT RIC UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z...14-16Z FOR PHF/ORF...AND NOT REACHING ECG UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS FOR PCPN...AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ANZ650-652) MAINLY FOR SEAS STILL AROUND 5 FT. SCA`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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ/JDM

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