Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 242220
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
620 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure is expected to dominate the overall weather pattern
through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Warmer and more
humid conditions return Thursday into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Sfc high pressure axis is currently draped across the region from
the Delmarva into Upstate SC. Mainly clear conditions exist
areawide, except for a little more dense cirrus across southern VA
and interior NE NC. Clouds will continue to dissipate through the
evening hours with clear/mainly conditions overnight. Lows temps
generally in the low-mid 60s (upper 60s immediate coast).
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure axis shifts east of the Mid Atlantic coast by Thu
aftn...allowing temps and dewpoints to increase ahead of a weak
cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. Highs 86-91F inland and in
the mid-upper 80s immediate coast as onshore winds become more
southerly. Dewpoints creep up into the mid-upper 60s, which will
make the ambient air feel more muggy.
The weak cold front is anticipated to move through the area Fri
aftn/evening. Temps warm into the low-mid 90s with dewpoints
around 70F. As a result, heat index values will creep into the
low 100s, however heat advisory criteria (104-109F) is not
anticipated at this time. Expect isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms to develop along the frontal boundary axis Fri
aftn/evening... especially given the amount of cumulus
development/coverage over the past few days (i.e. more than model
solutions) and the anticipated influx of moisture/humidity during
this timeframe. Although pwats are anticipated to reach
2.00 inches, deep moisture and lift will be fairly limited.
Therefore, isolated strong wind gusts are the main impacts
expected with storms attm. Any showers/storms that develop should
gradually dissipate Fri evening as the front nears the coast due
to loss of daytime heating/instability.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended still looks generally dry through next Wednesday as the
upper ridging persists across the eastern half of the U.S. This
will keep the upper jet displaced well north and west of the area
allowing for dry and hot conditions to persist across SE VA and NE
NC. A stray shower or storm moving off the mountains and into the
piedmont, or developing off the sea breeze near the coast, can not
be ruled out over the weekend given the hot/humid conditions.
However, given the lack of any upper support and the very dry
anticendent airmass will opt for a dry forecast at this time.
Will maintain the slight chance pops for Tuesday into Wed as the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest that the upper ridge will displace to the
south allowing stronger W-NW flow aloft to move into the middle
Atlantic. This may open the door for a few storms during the
afternoons/evenings as a weakening front approaches from the north.
However, again at this time the chances look pretty low.
Back to true summer time conditions at least temperature wise as
readings during the day will be right back into the low-mid 90s with
lows only in the 70s. It will be much more humid as well as compared
to the early part of this week.
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sfc high pressure axis is draped across the region from the
Delmarva into wrn SC. Sct-bkn afternoon cumulus has developed...
primarily west of Ches Bay and also along a convergence zone
slowly moving into coastal NE NC as anticipated. Showers are
struggling to develop north of Albemarle Sound but still cannot
rule out an isolated shower/storm late this aftn in far SE VA and
coastal NE NC (east of the Chowan River). Cloud bases are around
2500-3000ft AGL where showers are possible...with bases around
4-6kft AGL elsewhere. Farther west, cirrus is coming off the srn
Appalachian mountains and across sw/scntrl VA. All clouds are
expected to dissipate around sunset with skies clearing once again
overnight. High pressure axis shifts east of the Mid Atlantic coast
by Thu aftn...allowing temps and dewpoints to increase ahead of a
weak cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. This front is anticipated
to move through the area Fri aftn/evening.
Given the amount of cumulus development/coverage over the past few
days (i.e. more than model solutions) and the anticipated influx
of moisture/humidity, expect isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms to develop along the boundary axis Fri aftn/evening...
which should gradually dissipate as the front nears the coast due
to loss of daytime heating.
For the upcoming weekend into early next week, high pressure and
dry/VFR conditions will continue to predominate the weather
Generally quiet conditions continue. As the high shifts to the
northeast of the area tonight, southerly flow will develop and
increase ahead of a weakening cold front/trough. May see southerly
winds increase to 15 kt on Thu across the waters with waves building
to up to 4 feet across the northern coastal waters. The front stalls
out and dissipates over the waters for the weekend allowing winds to
diminish to less than 15 kt for the weekend. Generally weak winds
through early next week, although swell will be building by mid week
as any swell trains from the tropical systems over the Atlantic