Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251300 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 800 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWING YESTERDAY`S SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW ELL OFF THE COAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF FAIRLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. COLD MORNING ACRS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACRS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 20S SE COASTAL ZONES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND TODAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A QUIET DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND "RELATIVELY WARMTH" WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 F SE CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTN BRINGING CHILLY AIR FROM THE BAY/OCEAN. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN BUT NO PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET. ALL OF THE WEATHER AND YET ANOTHER WINTER EVENT RESIDE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BELOW... && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED...UPGRADED MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA INTO A WARNING...MAINLY IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE...ACRS SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHAMPTON /HERTFORD/GATES CO NC. THIS IS WHERE ONLY A MINIMAL CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT SNOW/SLEET AS PTYPE EXISTS...AS WELL AS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST 3-6" OF ACCUMULATION...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 8" POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH IN NC ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A MIX TO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMTS OR EVEN FOR A TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A FEW HRS. FARTHER NORTH...QPF WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR EVEN WITH ALL SNOW AS PTYPE. EVEN AS A 12:1 OR HIGHER SNOW RATIO MAY ONLY SEE 1-3". HOWEVER..IN METRO RICHMOND THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD TO EXPAND THE WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE HENRICO/NEW KENT ETC. WE WILL MAKE A FINAL CALL BY NOON TODAY TO EITHER ADSY OR WARNING IN THESE WATCH ZONES. ACRS THE FAR NORTH...DO NOT FORESEE MUCH CHANCE FOR WRNG SNOW AMTS SO HAVE ISSUED AN ADSY FOR 1-3" OF SNOW. FOR MODEL PREFERENCE...THE 03Z/25 SREF MEAN HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE 00Z/25 NAM AND VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH ON QPF AMTS WITH STORMS THUS FAR THIS SEASON AND THEREFORE GENLY DISREGARDED. LATEST 06Z/25 GFS COMING IN NOW DOES SHOW SOME INCREASE IN QPF AMTS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...AND HAVE BLENDED THIS INTO THE FAVORED 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MODEL DATA. THIS YIELDS QPF AMTS OF JUST UNDER 1.00" TO 0.20-0.25" ACRS THE FAR N/NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...REACHING ALONG/OFF THE SC COAST BY 06Z/THU...AND THEN INTENSIFYING OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z/THU. THIS 6-HR PERIOD IS WHEN BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACRS THE AKQ CWA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH 12-15Z...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY RAPID DRYING ALOFT THROUGH THE -10 TO -20 C DGZ LAYER...SO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN ON THE ERN SHORE WILL BE < 1". LINGERING FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE THRU THU AFTN. LOWS WED NGT RANGING THRU THE 20S TO NEAR 30. HIGHS ON THU MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW REGIME (LITTLE OR NO PHASING BTWN NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM). AS A RESULT, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A BRISK NNE WIND BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THU NGT/FRIDAY...DIMINISHING BY LATER FRIDAY AS 1044+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH EVENTUALLY BUILDS DOWN THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE FAST MOVING WSW FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A 20% POP ACRS THE N FOR AFTN SNOW SHOWERS. SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM N TO S BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH ABOVE THE MID TO UPR 30S BOTH DAYS...TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE. CAD WEDGE SETUP APPEARING LIKELY BY SAT NGT/SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST, AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN NEAR AND JUST BELOW THE COLDEST ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY. DO SEE SOME LIGHT MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE INCIPIENT WEDGE...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IF IT COMES IN QUICKLY ENOUGH SUN MORNING. QUESTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL COME WITH HOW QUICK TO SCOUR OUT WEDGE. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPS ON MONDAY ON DEEP LAYERED S-SW FLOW MONDAY INTO TUE. 4-5 STD DEV WORTH OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD ON MONDAY, WITH STRONG WARM SECTOR WARMING BALANCED AGAINST CAD WEDGE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S. GIVEN THE STRONG SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP -PNA IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND BUILDING RIDGING SOUTH OF THE SE CONUS INTO THE CARIBBEAN, THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. DROPPED TEMPS BACK ON TUESDAY TO END THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INCREASING POP ON LTR MON/TUE AS QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES AND W-NWLY WINDS AOB 10 KT PREVAIL TODAY. FOCUS TURNS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF TODAY...AND LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE LATE TODAY- EARLY TONIGHT AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER. LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY 05Z TONIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY ONCE THE SNOW STARTS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AT KECG LATE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE 12Z TAFS ISSUANCE. SNOW (SNOW SLEET KECG) PERSISTS THRU THURS MORNING. WEATHER IMPROVES LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PCPN RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ~200NM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER THE SE STATES...RIDGING NEWD OVER THE WATER. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS...GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE WATER...WITH WINDS AOB 10-15 KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE TODAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN GULF. THE SFC LOW LIFTS ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION...CROSSING THE WATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. E-SE WINDS BACK TO THE NE AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE BAY AND ERN VA RIVERS...20 TO 25 KT COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 20-30 KT COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND LATE TONIGHT-THURS MORNING. FLOW BECOMES NNW BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER THURS AND THURS NIGHT. STRONGEST CAA PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL PUSH THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TOWARD GALE CONDITIONS. GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A PERIOD OF LOW END GALE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FROM 4AM TO 10AM THURS FOR THE SRN WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH TOWARD CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN ON THE LOW SIDE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. INSTEAD OF GALE HEADLINES (WATCH)...HAVE OPTED TO PUT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SCA HEADLINES FARTHER NORTH BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE DAY AS BETTER CAA ARRIVES AND THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS SUBSIDE LATE THURS-EARLY THURS NIGHT OVER THE BAY AND ERN VA RIVERS. 4 FT WAVES EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE SRN BAY...SO HAVE RUN THOSE ZONES OUT PAST THE NRN BAY BY 3 HRS LATE THURS. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TONIGHT...REACHING 4-7 FT IN THE SRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-8 FT (POSSIBLY HIGHER IF GALE CONDITIONS OCCUR) IN THE SRN WATERS TO 4-7 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS THURS MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD (THURS NIGHT) AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN NLY FLOW...MUCH SLOWER THAN WAVEWATCH INDICATES. NLY FLOW DECREASES FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY...FINALLY BUILDING OVER THE WATER SAT. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 24TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 33.0 F (-9.4 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND TH COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 24TH: * RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0" * NORFOLK: 5.9" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8". && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>014. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ065-066-079>081-087>098-100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-062>064-074>077. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082>086-099. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630- 631-635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...LKB/MAM AVIATION...SAM MARINE...MAM/SAM CLIMATE...AKQ

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