Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 112103 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 503 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S CREATING A PLEASANT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE RELAXING AS MIXING DIES DOWN. CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH WEAK SUPPORT AND DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST HELPS TO USHER THE FRONT SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AN ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWER TO CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 50-55. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE FRONT NEARBY BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION SAT AFTN. LIGHT NE-E LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO LOWER A LITTLE FROM TODAY. HIGHS 65-70 ON THE EASTERN SHORE/IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE MID/UPR 70S WELL INLAND. PLEASANT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 50-55. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW THE FLOW TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP BOOST MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ACTIVE WX AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AMPLIFIED/DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO DEEP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END LIKELY POPS (70%) FOR ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT BY TUE (THE UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING) AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO TREND TO EVEN HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWN INTO THE 60S TO LWR 70S SE ON TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. FAVORING THE LATEST ECMWF OVER THE GFS BUT NO OPERATIONAL MODEL HAS BEEN FOLLOWED EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE TAIL END PERIOD OF THE SYSTEM BY WED. THE ECMWF WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS WET WED INTO WED NIGHT AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES FROM THE SE TO MID ATLC STATES (THE GFS WOULD BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS). AT THIS POINT...HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER AND LINGERED CHC POPS INLAND TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY WED. TEMPS WILL TREND RATHER CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S (CERTAINLY COULD BE ONLY IN THE 40S IF ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY). CLEARING/COOLER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LWR 40S. DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK LO AND ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY OVR THE OH VALLEY. SLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT THRU SUNSET AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRNT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME PASSING HI CLOUDS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG BUT MAY STAY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE FRNT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AND WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS OVRNGT. THERE IS A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA FOR RIC/SBY...BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LO TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS SUBSIDE AND DIRECTIONS BCM VRB AS THE FRNT DROPS IN ERLY SAT MORNG. HI PRES RE-BUILDS OFF THE CST SUN INTO MON...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SLY FLOW. A COMPLEX FRNTAL SYSTM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION MON NGT INTO TUE. && .MARINE... RAISED SCA`S THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE LOWER JAMES/CHES BAY/ AND CURRITUCK SOUND PER LATEST OBS. SEEING A LOT OF GUSTS TO 20 KT ACRS THESE AREAS. THERE ARE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED W/ THE SFC LOW PUSHING EAST FROM SW PA AND WRN MD AND THIS MAY BE HELPING TO BREAK THE MARINE INVERSION TO SOME EXTENT. ALSO EXTENDED THE SCA FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SEAS AT BUOY 44009 HAVE BEEN VARIABLE FROM 4-5 FT ALL DAY AND EVEN THOUGH WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN A BIT TOO HIGH...EXPECT THEM TO BE AROUND 5 FT INTO THE EVENING HRS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER NC SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN E/NE SATURDAY (NO COLD AIR SURGE SO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KT AT MOST). HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE W LATER MONDAY. THE WIND INITIALLY SHIFTS TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SSW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH THE WIND INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT EITHER WAY EXPECT A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR AND STRONG SCA`S OR POSSIBLY GALES TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN N/NE FLOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MOST VA/NC COUNTIES. FUELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY AFTER THURSDAY`S WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WITH MODEL GUIDANCE BEING NOTORIOUSLY TOO HIGH WITH AFTN DEW PTS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN SW FLOW PATTERNS AHEAD WEAK COLD FRONTS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AT LEAST 25-30%...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 20% IN PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER GOOD MIXING DAY WHICH WILL CAUSE 20-FT WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. MORE MARGINAL WINDS/MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ERN SHORE AND NC OUTER BANKS...SO HAVE KEPT THESE ZONES OUT OF THE SPS FOR NOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY NORTH OF RICHMOND AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECTING PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS THRU LATE MONDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048- 049-060>098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>634-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/DAP NEAR TERM...JDM/DAP SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAS MARINE...LKB FIRE WEATHER...AKQ

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