Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191025 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 625 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...RAIN HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS OF 615 AM. THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITHIN A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE FROM ROUGHLY PETERSBURG EWD TO HAMPTON/CHESAPEAKE BAY. THESE ISOLATED SPRINKLES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVING THE AREA A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAIN THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST INTO SE VA THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SWD THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES SETTLED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION (ALSO BY THIS AFTN) AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT...MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. PWATS OF 1.50-2.00 INCHES (AROUND 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALOFT OF 25KT OR LESS WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S NORTH AND MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH...AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE BOUNDARY LOCATION. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL GUARANTEE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY AS WELL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VRB CIGS ACRS THE FA...LIFR/IFR CONDS XPCD AT TIMES THROUGH ERY MRNG...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR REST OF THE DAY. COVERAGE OF RA CONTG TO DECREASE THROUGH ERY MRNG HRS. PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. PTNTL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS TNGT AS WNDS RMN ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MRNG...W/ MNLY VFR CONDS FM LT MRNG/MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN HRS W/ ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION...ESP AWAY FM THE CST. && .MARINE... LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS RMNG SUB-SCA). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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