Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231117 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 717 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks east across a stalled frontal boundary located just north of the area today. The front will then drop south over the region late today into tonight. High pressure builds in from the north Friday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest sfc analysis shows a diffuse stationary frntal bndry over the nrn Mid Atlc, with another weak frnt near the VA/NC border, where convection is ongoing erly this morng. These shras/tstms are expected to continue thru the erly morng hrs as the atm is quite moist despite weak instability attm. Radar mosaic also shows another area of pcpn moving thru wrn va/wv. Although this activity may weaken as it crosses the mountains, tstms are still expected at least over nrn portions of the fa later this morng. SPC continues to highlight the area in a slgt risk for severe wx. Although there is plenty of deep-layer shear, instability is fairly weak this morng, and severe potential later tda with any redevelopment will largely be dictated by how much instability is present. Pops range fm chance srn areas to likely nrn areas. With skies avgg mstly cloudy and guidance running too high the past few days, undercut temp guidance tda...highs mainly 85-90f. Good chance for shras/tstms continues tngt as the frntal bndry drops s thru the area. Low temps in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure to the north builds into the area behind the front Friday. Not as warm as the winds shift to the NE. The boundary gets hung up to the south so expect sct convection during the day with the highest pops across North Carolina. Highs in the low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay...75-80 along the coast. Drying trend and cooler Friday night and Saturday as high pressure dominates. Lows Friday night in the mid to upr 60s. Highs Saturday in the low to mid 80s west of the bay...mid 70s to lwr 80s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry conditions to begin the extended period as the upper level ridge axis builds over the region. Surface high pressure pushes off the Northeast coast Sunday with low level winds remaining onshore. Temperatures will remain slightly below seasonal norms, with highs generally in the low 80`s near the coast to mid 80`s inland. Upper high pressure retreats westward over the Desert Southwest Monday as shortwave energy digs from south central Canada over the Great Lakes region. An attendant cold front forecast to reach the Ohio Valley late Monday. Pressure falls on the lee side of the mountains ahead of the front will induce a lee side trough late Monday, which coupled with increasing moisture in southerly flow may help some upstream showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain move into the region Monday night, but expect Monday to remain dry. Warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 80`s. Better moisture arrives Tuesday with dewpoints warming back into 70`s. The front may drop into the Piedmont late Tuesday, but expect enough instability and low level convergence along the lee/thermal trough for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Near seasonal temperatures again with highs in the mid to upper 80`s. The front is expected to reach the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, with POPs continuing along the coast Wednesday as the trough builds over the Northeast CONUS. Highs Wednesday in the mid 80`s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Area of shras/tstms currently moving thru central VA will lead to areas of low cigs/vsbys this morng. Included tsra for kric/ksby, with this initial batch of pcpn likely missing the other terminals. Thereafter, mainly carried vcsh with some redevelopment likely later tda. Outside of any shra/tstm activity, vfr conditions should prevail thru the taf period. Outlook...Unsettled weather continue tngt/Fri with a frontal boundary nearby. Additional showers or storms are possible. The weekend looks quiet with high pressure building across the Mid Atlc.
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&& .MARINE... Latest wx analysis reveals Sfc Low pressure over the western Ohio Valley, sliding E-SE along frontal boundary, which is in place from near the VA/NC border back into W VA and the OH/TN vlys. Sfc low will continue to slide E-SE towards the Delmarva today. Pre-frontal SW winds increase with tightening pressure gradient, but should remain sub-SCA given warm air mass in place and the resultant less than optimal mixing of stronger winds just aloft. Sfc low pulls offshore tonight, with its trailing sfc boundary dropping into the area overnight into Friday morning, slowly veering winds to the W-NW overnight. Very little CAA push behind the boundary should keep predominate conditions sub-SCA behind the front late tonight and Friday. High pressure builds off the Northeast Coast on Friday/Friday night, with low level flow veering around to the N-NE ~10-15 knots. High pressure remains in the vicinity of the Northeast coast through the weekend with ongoing northeast flow over the waters. Rather meager pressure gradient expected, so speeds will likely stay sub- SCA ~ 10-15 kt. Seas expected to stay at or below 4 feet, but NWPS and wavewatch both depict 5-6 foot seas just offshore. Have kept 3-4 ft and wl continue to monitor. High pressure pushes offshore Monday as the next cold front approaches from the west. Flow becomes south to southeast at or below 15 knots. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/MPR NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAM

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