Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241925 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 325 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slides east of the Mid Atlantic coast by Thursday afternoon...followed by a weak cold frontal passage late in the day on Friday. High pressure returns to the area and is expected to dominate the overall weather pattern through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return to the region Thursday with generally dry weather through most of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Sfc high pressure axis is draped across the region from the Delmarva into wrn SC late this aftn. Sct-bkn afternoon cumulus remains primarily west of Ches Bay and also along a weak convergence zone slowly moving into coastal NE NC as anticipated. Showers are struggling to develop north of Albemarle Sound but still cannot rule out an isolated shower/storm late this aftn in far SE VA and coastal NE NC (east of the Chowan River). Farther west, cirrus is coming off the cntrl/srn Appalachian mountains and across sw/scntrl VA. All clouds are expected to dissipate around sunset with skies clearing once again overnight. Lows generally in the low-mid 60s (upper 60s possible immediate coast).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure axis shifts east of the Mid Atlantic coast by Thu aftn...allowing temps and dewpoints to increase ahead of a weak cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. Highs 86-91F inland and in the mid-upper 80s immediate coast as onshore winds become more southerly. Dewpoints creep up into the mid-upper 60s, which will make the ambient air feel more muggy. The weak cold front is anticipated to move through the area Fri aftn/evening. Temps warm into the low-mid 90s with dewpoints around 70F. As a result, heat index values will creep into the low 100s, however heat advisory criteria (104-109F) is not anticipated at this time. Expect isolated to widely scattered showers/storms to develop along the frontal boundary axis Fri aftn/evening... especially given the amount of cumulus development/coverage over the past few days (i.e. more than model solutions) and the anticipated influx of moisture/humidity during this timeframe. Although pwats are anticipated to reach 2.00 inches, deep moisture and lift will be fairly limited. Therefore, isolated strong wind gusts are the main impacts expected with storms attm. Any showers/storms that develop should gradually dissipate Fri evening as the front nears the coast due to loss of daytime heating/instability.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Benign and dry conditions are expected to prevail late this week through the weekend into early next week as a mid/upper level anticyclone becomes anchored over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The presence of the high will keep the main upper jet energy will north of the local area resulting in dry conditions through at least Monday. The ridge may get displaced to the south just enough by Tuesday to support a minimal (20%) chc of showers/tstms. Highs Saturday through Tuesday should range from the mid 80s at the coast to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Lows through the period average in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc high pressure axis is draped across the region from the Delmarva into wrn SC. Sct-bkn afternoon cumulus has developed... primarily west of Ches Bay and also along a convergence zone slowly moving into coastal NE NC as anticipated. Showers are struggling to develop north of Albemarle Sound but still cannot rule out an isolated shower/storm late this aftn in far SE VA and coastal NE NC (east of the Chowan River). Cloud bases are around 2500-3000ft AGL where showers are possible...with bases around 4-6kft AGL elsewhere. Farther west, cirrus is coming off the srn Appalachian mountains and across sw/scntrl VA. All clouds are expected to dissipate around sunset with skies clearing once again overnight. High pressure axis shifts east of the Mid Atlantic coast by Thu aftn...allowing temps and dewpoints to increase ahead of a weak cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. This front is anticipated to move through the area Fri aftn/evening. Given the amount of cumulus development/coverage over the past few days (i.e. more than model solutions) and the anticipated influx of moisture/humidity, expect isolated to widely scattered showers/storms to develop along the boundary axis Fri aftn/evening... which should gradually dissipate as the front nears the coast due to loss of daytime heating. For the upcoming weekend into early next week, high pressure and dry/VFR conditions will continue to predominate the weather pattern. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain near the coast today into tonight with a light e wind becoming se tonight. The high begins to push farther offshore Thursday into Thursday night. The wind will become ssw at 10-15kt later Thursday into Thursday night, with a solid 15kt possible for a few hours overnight. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday and crosses the area late Friday night into Saturday. The wind will be sw ahead of the front Friday into Friday night, before becoming northerly behind the front. SCA conditions are not expected in the wake of the front due to a lack of caa. High pressure then settles off the New England coast Sunday into early next week resulting in a potential period of prolonged onshore flow. Seas average 2-3ft through Saturday with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. Seas possibly build to 3-4ft Sunday into early next week with onshore flow. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...BMD MARINE...AJZ

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