Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251615 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1215 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG/OFF THE DE/MD COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO. IN GENERAL...WX IS PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED...DREARY COOL DAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REGION THUS FAR. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE GENLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.05" THROUGH NOON. NORTHERN/NE EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR (DEW PTS IN UPPER 20S) SO AREAS FROM THE NRN NECK TO ERN SHORE HAVE GENLY NOT RECEIVED RAIN YET. TEMPERATURES AVG FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...LOCALLY INTO THE UPPER 50S IN NE NC SOUTH OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTN FORECAST...SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS UNTIL AFTER 19Z FOR NE NC...AND SPED IT UP A BIT FOR PORTIONS OF ERN VA. WILL MAINTAIN POPS 60-80% OVER ALL AREAS OTHER THAN MD ERN SHORE AFTER 19Z. THROUGH 22Z...TOTAL QPF AVGG ONLY 0.10 TO 0.20"...WITH LESS ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN MOST AREAS FROM CURRENT VALUES...RISING SLIGHTLY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH MID AFTN...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC AS THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER. HIGHS AROUND 60 F NE NC...TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... LO LVL WEDGE TO RMN IN PLACE OVR THE FA AS ONSHORE WNDS...CLDS AND PDS OF RA CONTG INTO SUN AFTN. SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING FM THE OH/TN VLYS TNGT TO OFF THE NC CST LT SUN. WILL CARRY POPS 60-80% OVR MOST OF THE FA. AVG ADDITIONAL QPF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH. POPS TO BEGIN LWRG SUN AFTN FM NNW TO SE AS WNDS SHIFT TO N AS LO PRES DEPARTS CST. LO TEMPS FM THE L40S N TO U40S SE. HI TEMPS SUN IN THE M/U50S. RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC SUN EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD SUN NGT OVR THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L/M60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTS NE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS LATER TUE/WED...AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY /MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMAINING COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...PERHAPS ONLY THE UPPER 50S AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT LATER WED INTO THU...BRINGING OVERRUNNING AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING LATER WED AND LASTING INTO THU. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW BY THU...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER/CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A SOAKING RAIN FOR SE VA AND NE NC. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WOULD ONLY INDICATE MINIMAL PCPN CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND HAVE POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE FROM LATER WED THROUGH THU ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW. DRY WX IS INDICATED FOR NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON THURS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S NEXT FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS MORNG...AS HI PRES WEAKENS OVR THE AREA. BUT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WSW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W...WHILE ANOTHER LO MOVES TO THE NC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING...THEN CONTINUING TNGT INTO SUN AFTN...AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS NC AND OFF THE CST. OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUN EVENG OR EARLY MON WHICH CONTINUE THRU TUE. THE CHC FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE WED OR WED NGT. && .MARINE... HI PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE OFF THE CST THIS MORNG. LO PRES WILL MOVE FM THE MIDWEST EWRD ACRS THE MID ATLC AND OFF THE CST TODAY THRU SUN. SE OR S WINDS ARND 10 KT LATER TODAY...WILL SHIFT TO THE NE 10 TO 15 KT LATER TNGT. EXPECT NE OR N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT SUN INTO SUN EVENG...WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NGT...BEFORE POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON MON...WITH LO PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. WAVES BLD BACK TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY ON SUN...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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