Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 231117
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
717 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
Low pressure tracks east across a stalled frontal boundary
located just north of the area today. The front will then drop
south over the region late today into tonight. High pressure
builds in from the north Friday through Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a diffuse stationary frntal bndry over
the nrn Mid Atlc, with another weak frnt near the VA/NC border,
where convection is ongoing erly this morng. These shras/tstms are
expected to continue thru the erly morng hrs as the atm is quite
moist despite weak instability attm. Radar mosaic also shows
another area of pcpn moving thru wrn va/wv. Although this activity
may weaken as it crosses the mountains, tstms are still expected
at least over nrn portions of the fa later this morng. SPC
continues to highlight the area in a slgt risk for severe wx.
Although there is plenty of deep-layer shear, instability is
fairly weak this morng, and severe potential later tda with any
redevelopment will largely be dictated by how much instability is
present. Pops range fm chance srn areas to likely nrn areas. With
skies avgg mstly cloudy and guidance running too high the past few
days, undercut temp guidance tda...highs mainly 85-90f. Good
chance for shras/tstms continues tngt as the frntal bndry drops s
thru the area. Low temps in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure to the north builds into the area behind the front
Friday. Not as warm as the winds shift to the NE. The boundary
gets hung up to the south so expect sct convection during the day
with the highest pops across North Carolina. Highs in the low to
mid 80s west of the Ches Bay...75-80 along the coast.
Drying trend and cooler Friday night and Saturday as high
pressure dominates. Lows Friday night in the mid to upr 60s.
Highs Saturday in the low to mid 80s west of the bay...mid 70s to
lwr 80s at the coast.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions to begin the extended period as the upper level ridge
axis builds over the region. Surface high pressure pushes off the
Northeast coast Sunday with low level winds remaining onshore.
Temperatures will remain slightly below seasonal norms, with highs
generally in the low 80`s near the coast to mid 80`s inland. Upper
high pressure retreats westward over the Desert Southwest Monday as
shortwave energy digs from south central Canada over the Great Lakes
region. An attendant cold front forecast to reach the Ohio Valley
late Monday. Pressure falls on the lee side of the mountains ahead
of the front will induce a lee side trough late Monday, which
coupled with increasing moisture in southerly flow may help some
upstream showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain move into the
region Monday night, but expect Monday to remain dry. Warmer, with
highs in the mid to upper 80`s. Better moisture arrives Tuesday
with dewpoints warming back into 70`s. The front may drop into the
Piedmont late Tuesday, but expect enough instability and low level
convergence along the lee/thermal trough for scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Near seasonal temperatures again
with highs in the mid to upper 80`s. The front is expected to reach
the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, with POPs continuing along
the coast Wednesday as the trough builds over the Northeast CONUS.
Highs Wednesday in the mid 80`s.
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Area of shras/tstms currently moving thru central VA will lead to
areas of low cigs/vsbys this morng. Included tsra for
kric/ksby, with this initial batch of pcpn likely missing the
other terminals. Thereafter, mainly carried vcsh with some
redevelopment likely later tda. Outside of any shra/tstm activity,
vfr conditions should prevail thru the taf period.
Outlook...Unsettled weather continue tngt/Fri with a frontal
boundary nearby. Additional showers or storms are possible. The
weekend looks quiet with high pressure building across the Mid
-- End Changed Discussion --
Latest wx analysis reveals Sfc Low pressure over the western Ohio
Valley, sliding E-SE along frontal boundary, which is in place
from near the VA/NC border back into W VA and the OH/TN vlys. Sfc
low will continue to slide E-SE towards the Delmarva today.
Pre-frontal SW winds increase with tightening pressure gradient,
but should remain sub-SCA given warm air mass in place and the
resultant less than optimal mixing of stronger winds just aloft.
Sfc low pulls offshore tonight, with its trailing sfc boundary
dropping into the area overnight into Friday morning, slowly
veering winds to the W-NW overnight. Very little CAA push behind
the boundary should keep predominate conditions sub-SCA behind the
front late tonight and Friday.
High pressure builds off the Northeast Coast on Friday/Friday
night, with low level flow veering around to the N-NE ~10-15
knots. High pressure remains in the vicinity of the Northeast
coast through the weekend with ongoing northeast flow over the
waters. Rather meager pressure gradient expected, so speeds will
likely stay sub- SCA ~ 10-15 kt. Seas expected to stay at or below
4 feet, but NWPS and wavewatch both depict 5-6 foot seas just
offshore. Have kept 3-4 ft and wl continue to monitor. High
pressure pushes offshore Monday as the next cold front approaches
from the west. Flow becomes south to southeast at or below 15