Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190618 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 218 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY 00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE. SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW. CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/ DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID- UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG. RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS ~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT (MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT- TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES. COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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