Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 221738
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
138 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016
A stationary frontal boundary remains over the northern Mid
Atlantic today. The front lifts northward as a warm front tonight
as low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley. The low tracks
just north of the area Thursday, with the front dropping over the
region Thursday night. High pressure builds in from the north
Friday and Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes made to the grids this morning. Adjusted cloud
coverage up a bit based on the bkn-ovc ci shield overspreading the
region attm from thw NW. Skies average pt to mostly sunny. Kept a
slight chc pop in across the swrn zones based on the high res data
of sct convection from the upstream convective complex making it
over the mts after 21z. Highs with a few degrees of 90.
Latest sfc analysis reveals a stationary frntal bndry across the
nrn Mid Atlc. Dry wx expected tda with the frnt staying off to the
n and upr-level confluence over the area behind a shortwave trof
currently moving thru the region. Less humid than yesterday with
aftn dewpts in the upr 50s to mid 60s. Skies will avg prtly cloudy
tda with wly flow gusting at times this aftn. Temps will max out
near 90 most areas.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upstream convection riding along the wavy front expected to reach
the central Appalachians this evening. Moisture return and an
unstable air mass east of the Appalachians may allow some of the
storms to move into the Piedmont. Will keep mention of chance
POP`s into central Virginia this evening. Potential upstream MCS
over the Ohio Valley tonight expected to push into the northern
Mid-Atlantic region late tonight. Will keep mention of chance to
solid chance POPs (especially north). Mild, with lows in the upper
60`s to mid 70`s.
Unsettled conditions continue into Thursday as a shortwave
pushes across the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low
centers over the northern Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday with an
east-west frontal boundary extending back into the Ohio Valley.
Pressure falls on the lee side of the mountains will induce lee
side/thermal trough over the Piedmont. With a warm/moist air mass
over the local area, expect additional diurnally-driven
convection Thursday afternoon and evening. Based on the frontal
position and breezy return flow, the warmest temperatures of the
period are forecast Thursday. A partly cloudy sky may prevent
temps from reaching their full potential, but highs still expected
in the upper 80`s north to mid 90`s south. Low pressure pushes
offshore Thursday night as shortwave energy drops into the
northern Mid-Atlantic region. The front drops into the local area
Thursday night. Will increase POPs to solid chance. Mild again
with lows in the upper 60s north to lo/mid 70`s south.
Not as warm Friday behind the front as high pressure builds in from
the north. Will maintain slight chance to chance POPs to account for
uncertainty with the front, but expect generally drying conditions.
Highs generally in the low 80`s north to mid 80`s south.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary will push farther sse of the area Fri ngt and
Sat, as high pres blds in fm the nne. The high will bld farther
into the Mid Atlc region thru early Mon, then settles well off the
Mid Atlc cst late Mon thru Tue, as a frontal boundary slowly
approaches fm the w. Will linger sml chc (30%) or slgt chc (20%)
pops ovr the srn third of the area Fri ngt. Expect dry wx Sat thru
Mon, then slgt chc (20%) or chc (30-40%) pops for showers or
tstms Tue aftn into Tue ngt. Lows in the 60s Fri ngt and Sat ngt,
in the mid 60s to near 70 Sun ngt, and in the upr 60s to lwr 70s
Mon ngt. Highs in the upr 70s to mid 80s Sat, in the 80s Sun, and
in the mid 80s to near 90 Mon and Tue.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across northern VA.
This front will continue to serve as a focus for thunderstorms
through tomorrow. The first complex of storms currently over eastern
Kentucky will likely approach the area this afternoon, however the
majority of the stronger weather will likely turn into NC and miss
the terminals. The northern edge of the showers and storms may
affect RIC/ORF/PHF and ECG...but the confidence is not high enough
to directly include TS in any of those forecasts. Will include VCTS
at ECG between 01 and 03Z as this location will have the best chance
for storms. After this round of storms moves east, a more
significant area of storms will move out of the Ohio Valley and into
the middle Atlantic Thu morning. These storms may impact all of the
terminals Thu morning, but again the timing and confidence of these
storms are not high enough to include in any terminal. Otherwise,
outside of any thunderstorm, VFR conditions should prevail.
Outlook...Unsettled weather continues into Friday with the frontal
boundary nearby. Additional showers and storms are expected. The
weekend looks quiet with high pressure building across the middle
-- End Changed Discussion --
Latest wx analysis features weak cold front oriented along the Mason
Dixon line this morning. Boundary will remain N of the waters early
this morning, gradually meandering farther n of the area tonight
through Thu Morning. Pressure gradient remains compressed this
morning, resulting in winds to low end SCA once again in the Lower
Bay and Currituck Sound. Have extended SCA until mid-morning w/winds
the expected to diminish as gradient slackens gradually through
Low pressure will track east along the front acrs the Ohio Valley
today, and across PA/S NJ before shifting offshore Thu aftn. Brief
period of SCA winds possible Thu aftn as gradient re- tightens ahead
of the trailing cold front, which drops down across the waters Thu
ngt into Fri morning. High pressure builds in from the north Fri and
Fri ngt, with winds remaining sub-SCA, and veering around to the N-
NE, eventually becoming E-SE by late in the weekend.