Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220037 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 837 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region through tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Monday and remains over the area for much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Shras/possible tstms shift to the coast late this evening/after midnight...then end late. Partial clearing expected wrn portions as winds shift to NW (post cold front) and drier air begins to arrive. Lows in the l-m60s NW to l70s SE. NNW winds to become gusty by late tonight (highest ern portion/along the coast).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front pushes well S and E of the FA on Mon...to be followed by sfc hi pres building into the region from the NW. Much drier/more comfortable air will be overspreading the FA during the day. N winds will be a bit gusty (highest E portion/at the coast) in the morning before waning. FEW/SCT CU...otherwise mostly sunny w/ highs in the m80s. Sfc hi pres settles over the area Mon night through Tue before drifting slowly off the coast into Wed. Expecting continued dry and pleasant through the period. The wind (averaging aob 10 mph) will become NE Tue...then continue into Wed. Highs Tue-Wed ranging from the u70s/l80s at the coast...to the l-m80s inland. Morning lows in the u50s-l60s inland...to the m60s for SE coastal locations. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface ridge axis locates along the coast Thursday, as surface winds become south to southeast. Further modification of dewpoints and temperatures expected, but dry conditions prevail. Daytime temps warm into the mid to upper 80`s acrs the area (cooler again nearest the coast). Medium range guidance is less amplified than 24 hours ago with a northern stream trough digging into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The result is a slower and weaker cold front for late in the week. Have just slgt chc pops acrs extrm NW counties for Fri, with highs warming into the upr 80s to lower 90s thanks to southerly winds. The front progged to now drop into the area during Fri, but with upper level high pressure over the SE states, it looks like the front will dissipate ovr srn portions of the region. High pressure will then bld fm the Grt Lks and OH valley ewrd into the ern Grt Lks and srn New England Sat thru Sun. This will result in more dry wx with highs ranging fm the mid 80s to lower 90`s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front moves offshore tonight, with an area of shras/tstms currently moving near the coast. Included VCSH very early in the TAF period to account for this, with brief IFR/MVFR possible with any tstms. VFR thereafter as a drier airmass moves into the area. Some wind behind the front as well (winds becoming northwesterly) will prevent fog formation overnight. Hi pressure then builds in from the west through mid week leading to dry and vfr conditions.
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&& .MARINE... Have adjusted the SCA headline times for all the waters to late this evening or late tngt to thru Mon morning or Mon aftn, based on latest timing of CAA behind the cold front. The cold front will push acrs the waters and off the coast late this evening into early Mon morning. A SSW wind of 10-15 kt early this evening, will shift to the NW and increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt tngt into Mon morning. Waves will bld to 3-4 feet over the Ches Bay late tngt into early Mon morning, with seas building to 3-5 ft (highest 20 nautical miles out). High pressure nudges in fm the W during Mon morning, as CAA wanes and gradient winds relax. Expect SCA conditions to subside by late Mon morning or early Mon aftn, with northernly winds subsiding to 10-15 knots. The surface high blds N of the waters Mon night and Tue, as flow becomes northeast at 5-15 knots. Onshore, sub-SCA flow persists thru Thu, as high pressure slides off the NE coast. The next front will drop acrs the region Fri and Fri ngt. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of service until sometime on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...

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