Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221738 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary frontal boundary remains over the northern Mid Atlantic today. The front lifts northward as a warm front tonight as low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley. The low tracks just north of the area Thursday, with the front dropping over the region Thursday night. High pressure builds in from the north Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor changes made to the grids this morning. Adjusted cloud coverage up a bit based on the bkn-ovc ci shield overspreading the region attm from thw NW. Skies average pt to mostly sunny. Kept a slight chc pop in across the swrn zones based on the high res data of sct convection from the upstream convective complex making it over the mts after 21z. Highs with a few degrees of 90. Previous Dscn: Latest sfc analysis reveals a stationary frntal bndry across the nrn Mid Atlc. Dry wx expected tda with the frnt staying off to the n and upr-level confluence over the area behind a shortwave trof currently moving thru the region. Less humid than yesterday with aftn dewpts in the upr 50s to mid 60s. Skies will avg prtly cloudy tda with wly flow gusting at times this aftn. Temps will max out near 90 most areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upstream convection riding along the wavy front expected to reach the central Appalachians this evening. Moisture return and an unstable air mass east of the Appalachians may allow some of the storms to move into the Piedmont. Will keep mention of chance POP`s into central Virginia this evening. Potential upstream MCS over the Ohio Valley tonight expected to push into the northern Mid-Atlantic region late tonight. Will keep mention of chance to solid chance POPs (especially north). Mild, with lows in the upper 60`s to mid 70`s. Unsettled conditions continue into Thursday as a shortwave pushes across the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low centers over the northern Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday with an east-west frontal boundary extending back into the Ohio Valley. Pressure falls on the lee side of the mountains will induce lee side/thermal trough over the Piedmont. With a warm/moist air mass over the local area, expect additional diurnally-driven convection Thursday afternoon and evening. Based on the frontal position and breezy return flow, the warmest temperatures of the period are forecast Thursday. A partly cloudy sky may prevent temps from reaching their full potential, but highs still expected in the upper 80`s north to mid 90`s south. Low pressure pushes offshore Thursday night as shortwave energy drops into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The front drops into the local area Thursday night. Will increase POPs to solid chance. Mild again with lows in the upper 60s north to lo/mid 70`s south. Not as warm Friday behind the front as high pressure builds in from the north. Will maintain slight chance to chance POPs to account for uncertainty with the front, but expect generally drying conditions. Highs generally in the low 80`s north to mid 80`s south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Frontal boundary will push farther sse of the area Fri ngt and Sat, as high pres blds in fm the nne. The high will bld farther into the Mid Atlc region thru early Mon, then settles well off the Mid Atlc cst late Mon thru Tue, as a frontal boundary slowly approaches fm the w. Will linger sml chc (30%) or slgt chc (20%) pops ovr the srn third of the area Fri ngt. Expect dry wx Sat thru Mon, then slgt chc (20%) or chc (30-40%) pops for showers or tstms Tue aftn into Tue ngt. Lows in the 60s Fri ngt and Sat ngt, in the mid 60s to near 70 Sun ngt, and in the upr 60s to lwr 70s Mon ngt. Highs in the upr 70s to mid 80s Sat, in the 80s Sun, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across northern VA. This front will continue to serve as a focus for thunderstorms through tomorrow. The first complex of storms currently over eastern Kentucky will likely approach the area this afternoon, however the majority of the stronger weather will likely turn into NC and miss the terminals. The northern edge of the showers and storms may affect RIC/ORF/PHF and ECG...but the confidence is not high enough to directly include TS in any of those forecasts. Will include VCTS at ECG between 01 and 03Z as this location will have the best chance for storms. After this round of storms moves east, a more significant area of storms will move out of the Ohio Valley and into the middle Atlantic Thu morning. These storms may impact all of the terminals Thu morning, but again the timing and confidence of these storms are not high enough to include in any terminal. Otherwise, outside of any thunderstorm, VFR conditions should prevail. Outlook...Unsettled weather continues into Friday with the frontal boundary nearby. Additional showers and storms are expected. The weekend looks quiet with high pressure building across the middle Atlantic.
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&& .MARINE... Latest wx analysis features weak cold front oriented along the Mason Dixon line this morning. Boundary will remain N of the waters early this morning, gradually meandering farther n of the area tonight through Thu Morning. Pressure gradient remains compressed this morning, resulting in winds to low end SCA once again in the Lower Bay and Currituck Sound. Have extended SCA until mid-morning w/winds the expected to diminish as gradient slackens gradually through the afternoon. Low pressure will track east along the front acrs the Ohio Valley today, and across PA/S NJ before shifting offshore Thu aftn. Brief period of SCA winds possible Thu aftn as gradient re- tightens ahead of the trailing cold front, which drops down across the waters Thu ngt into Fri morning. High pressure builds in from the north Fri and Fri ngt, with winds remaining sub-SCA, and veering around to the N- NE, eventually becoming E-SE by late in the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR SHORT TERM...MAS/SAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MRD MARINE...MAM

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