Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230650 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 250 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic States through Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday into the upcoming weekend. A more active weather pattern is anticipated Sunday night into the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Winds continue to diminish late this evening under a clear sky. Expecting winds to become calm away from the water overnight which will set the stage for chilly readings. Still anticipating lows of 22-25F north of Interstate 64 (including interior MD Lower Eastern Shore), 26-28F inland VA/NE NC, and 29-33 far SE VA/NE NC coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Canadian high pressure continues to settle over the Mid Atlantic Region on Thu and then slowly slides offshore Thu night. Slightly cooler with continued dry conditions Thu/Thu night. Highs in the upper 40s to around 50F inland/low-mid 40s immediate coast and MD/VA Eastern Shore. Lows in the upper 20s to 32F inland /low-mid 30s beaches. Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as high pressure shifts well offshore, and a warm front lifts northwest of the area... allowing warm air advection to commence with winds becoming more S-SW. Temperatures are expected to rebound to 60-65F most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and MD/VA Eastern Shore) due to breezy southwest winds gusting to around 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph MD/VA Eastern Shore. Overall conditions will be dry as mid-upper level ridging and decent subsidence aloft dominates (i.e. best shower chances are well north along the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds should stream across the region (especially north) in relatively flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50F. Meanwhile, low pressure exits the Intermountain West into the Central Plains Fri into Fri night. As the low tracks into the wrn Midwest on Sat, a secondary warm front is expected to lift through the area. This will allow for additional warming in continued southwest sfc winds and a noticeable influx of moisture as dewpoints increase to around 50F. Although clouds should clear out across the SE half of the area during the day (as is typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus development and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly sunny wording in the forecast. Taking all of the above into account as well as improved daytime heating with an increasing sun angle, went with a blend of WPC/MOSGuide for highs on Sat and bumped up the Eastern Shore due to the southwest winds present. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland/low- mid 70s beaches). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Medium range of the forecast period characterized by near to above normal temperatures, courtesy of arriving mid-level ridging aloft, and surface high pressure oriented just off the Mid Atlantic/Southeast Coast. Main weather features of note will be a series of mid/upper level troughs...bringing a few periods of scattered light precipitation over the weekend/early next week. The first of these disturbances traverses across the central/southern Plains on Saturday, dampening as it crosses E-NE into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday and into the northeast on Monday. This feature will allow for some isolated to scattered showers Sunday afternoon into early on Monday. QPF will be limited with this feature. Instability and weakening dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off to our N-NW, and will therefore maintain 40-60% POP over our western/NW tier for some sct to numerous showers Sunday evening into Monday morning, with lesser pops for more isolated showers across the SE coastal plain. Mild southerly flow will keep temps mild, with forecast highs in the upper 50s to 60s Northern Neck and Lower MD Eastern Shore...with upper 60s to low 70s inland for the weekend into early next week. For the middle of next week...attention turns to a pair of shortwaves. A second southern stream disturbance is expected to track east/northeastward from the CA coast...across the Plains and Mid-South Late Sat to early Monday. This system will continue to weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the CONUS Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream system will drop from the PAC NW toward the northern plains early Monday, eventually reaching the Great Lakes by the middle of next week. Models are still split on the evolution of these systems. The 12z/22 ECMWF and 00z EC Ensembles remains quicker to dampen these features with the GFS/GEFS a bit stronger/more amplified. Taking a middle of the road approach remains the preference at this point, with the resultant blended solution allowing for continued mild weather Mon to Wed with at least a small chance for showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Shortwave ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday. Highs remain mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the Northern Neck of VA into MD, with highs well into the 60s to Mid 70s inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s southern sections. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure/fair weather prevails over the region this morning. A few high clouds at or above 25k feet AGL are streaming over the region, with little aviation impact. Surface winds generally north to northeast at or below 10 knots. SKC conditions expected today as high pressure settles over the region. Winds become south to southeast this afternoon, remaining at or below 10 knots. OUTLOOK...High pressure/fair weather prevails through Saturday. A storm system approaches from the west on Sunday, with a good chance of showers late Sunday through Monday. && .MARINE... Sfc hi pres remains situated from interior New England S into the mid-Atlantic states. Continuing low end SCAs into the early/mid morning hours. The high is slow to drift E and off the coast by this eve. Expecting NNE winds to gradually wane after through 12-15Z/23...then become more E by late today at ligher speeds. Sfc hi pres remains off the coast tonight...w/ winds becoming SW Fri and lingering through Sat. Speeds increase to 15-20 knots by Fri afternoon as a storm system develops over the Midwest. The next front crosses the waters early next week...w/ relatively benign marine conditions expected over the weekend in SSW winds mainly aob 15 kt. Seas averaging 2-3 ft...waves 1-2 ft. && .EQUIPMENT... Radar KDOX remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter. Maintenance is expected to begin overnight with an estimated (though possibly unstable) return to service is now Friday, March 24th. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/JDM SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...SAM/LSA MARINE...ALB EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.