Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141958 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 358 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England this evening as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the coast. This area of high pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight into Sunday. A cold front passes through the region late Sunday night into Monday. Cool high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Sfc hi pres extends from off the New England coast SW to SC-GA this afternoon while a weakening trough hangs on along the coast NE NC to the Delmarva. Maritime air remains reluctant to break its grip along-E of the I 95 corridor (w/ even patchy -RA/DZ hanging on toward the coast). Meanwhile...conditions have improved substantially across the Piedmont. Any clearing across the ern portions of the local area will be very slow (by) late tonight. Have added patchy FG across much of the FA...most likely developing (well) inland earlier than toward the coast. Lows in the u50s-l60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... May start out mostly cloudy Sun...esp toward the coast...then becoming mostly sunny as low level flow becomes SSW. This will produce unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be in the l-m80s. A cold front crosses the mountains Sun night...then continues to press ESE through the local area late Sun night into Mon morning...passing through far SE VA/NE NC late Mon morning per 14/12z model consensus. Becoming mostly cloudy over the NW half of the area after midnight Mon...while remaining partly cloudy SE. Models continue to show a narrow band of lift w/ the front...w/ the highest PoPs 40-60% across the NW portion of the area late Sun night...then shifting to the SE portion of the area Mon morning through early Mon afternoon. Lows Sun night range from the m-u50s NW...to the l-m60s SE. Clearing NW 1/2 of the FA Mon while remaining mostly cloudy SE. Highs Mon will generally be in the m-u60s (temperatures may remain steady across SE VA/NE NC...or slowly fall a few degrees due to clouds/pcpn and winds becoming a bit gusty from the NNW. Sfc hi pres pushes the cold front well E and S Mon night...then that high builds over the FA Tue. Mainly SKC and cool/dry wx w/ lows Mon night in the l-m40s...u40s at the coast...highs Tue 60-65F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front is expected to clear the area Monday night into early Tuesday. A few showers may linger in the far southeast into early Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday into Wednesday with much cooler and drier air being ushered into the region. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than what we have become accustomed too with temperatures only in the mid 60s. By Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s for many locations away from the coast. Drier and cooler weather is expected to last through the extended period with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the period with highs reaching the mid 70s by Friday. It should be noted that while these values will feel much cooler, temperatures will be close to normal for mid October. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread IFR stratus and patchy areas of light rain and drizzle continue to plague the region due to onshore flow and a weak area of low pressure off the Va/NC coast. Conditions are expected to show little improvement through the day and will be worsened by fog developing overnight with light wind and abundant moisture. Drier air will move into the area late Sunday morning into the afternoon bringing VFR conditions. A cold front pushes across the region late Sunday into Monday bringing the chance for some showers and gusty NW wind. High pressure and VFR conditions spread into the region Monday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds remain under 10 kt tonight as a weak trough of low pressure dissipates near the coast. The SCA over cstl waters continues into Sun morning due to lingering 5 ft seas out 20 nm. Winds then become S/SW at 10-15 kt Sun ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The front crosses the area Sun night into Mon morning, with strong CAA behind the front leading to winds up to 15-25 kt into Mon. Have raised a SCA over the Bay for the late third and fourth periods, and may have to include the rivers and/or Sound with future updates if confidence for a SCA there increases. Seas up to 5-6 ft over cstl wtrs, but will avoid a double headline there for now. High pressure then slides into the area into Tue leading to decreasing winds/waves/seas. The high will remain over the area through the end of the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...MAS

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