Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150608 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 208 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure systems will track along a stationary located near or just south of the Virginia North Carolina border through Tuesday night. High pressure finally builds north of the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The next cold front moves into the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Latest analysis indicating an elongated sfc trough of low pressure and an associated frontal boundary from NE NC to the TN Valley. TS Gert is situated well off the SE US coast and will pose no threat to the US Mainland other than an increase in seas/rip current threat (see Marine section and/or NHC/TPC for details). Light WSW flow prevails aloft and this will more or less keep the sfc frontal boundary in the vicinity of NE NC/SE VA through Tuesday aftn. Noting a slight increase in sfc dew pts this aftn compared to past few days...with upper 70s widespread over NE NC...and low-mid 70s over southern VA. It is still a little less humid from central VA and points N with dew pts in the 60s to around 70 F. Likely PoPs will continue for interior NE NC this evening bordered by chc for far srn VA and coastal NE NC. Nothing very strong, just some locally heavy rain in these showers/storms as overall organization is weak. PoPs then increase after 06Z as the front lifts a little to the N, and the upper level shortwave energy tracks ENE from the Tn Valley into the CWA. Decent upper level jet to our N will provide RRQ forcing as well. Very warm/humid across the region so lows will avg in the mid 70s SE to around 70 F NW. On Tue, northern stream upper level shortwave energy moves E from the Great Lakes Tue morning and partially phases with the aforementioned southern stream wave by Tue aftn., and to a position off the New England coast Tue night. TS Gert remains well off the coast, but should be sufficient forcing and moisture to support likely PoPs to high chc PoPs most areas on Tue. Highs mainly in the low-mid 80s N and mid-upper 80s S. Potential for locally heavy rain and localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... For Tue night/Wed, chances of rain gradually diminish, though will maintain chc PoPs far S on Wed as the frontal boundary lingers not too far S and weak high pressure builds in from the N. Partly sunny Wed w/ highs upper 80s/around 90F inland...80-85F near the coast. Just a 10-20% chance for aftn tstms Thu, otherwise partly-mostly sunny with highs upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc high pressure will slide farther off the New England coast Thu night. A cold front will approach fm the west late Fri, then slowly drops acrs the area Fri night thru Sun. High pressure will build into and over the region Sun night and Mon. Will have 15-30% Pops over the nrn and wrn counties for Thu night, then 20-40% Pops for Fri thru Sun. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Fri, and mainly in the mid to upper 80s Sat, Sun and Mon. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s Thu night, in the upper 60s to mid 70s Fri night, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat night and Sun night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A stationary front will remain stalled just south of the region, influencing the pattern through mid-week. Unsettled conditions will continue through the taf period with scattered showers/tstms. Ceilings are also expected to continue to decrease overnight with an onshore flow across the region. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through the morning hours. Showers and thunderstorm activity may once again become more widespread this afternoon as another disturbance approaches the region. Outlook: Conditions are expected to improve Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds back into the region. A cold front approaches the region Friday bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Have issued a SCA for hazardous seas for the coastal waters fm later Tue aftn into Wed morning, due to SE swells fm TS Gert. At this time, expect seas to build to 4-5 ft late Tue, possibly up to 6 ft, esply over the nrn two coastal zns. Otherwise, sfc boundary laying acrs NE NC, will lift nwrd at least into srn half of the area later tonight into Tue evening. Gert will move well out into the Atlc later Wed into Wed night, with sfc high pressure building fm the ern Great Lakes twd New England. The high will slide off the coast late Thu/Thu night. A cold front will approach fm the west late Fri. Wind speeds will generally be around 10 kt or less thru Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJB/MAS MARINE...TMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.