Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 182322 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 722 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WK SFC CDFNT SETTLES THROUGH THE FA THIS EVE...THEN IS S OF THE RGN BY AFT MDNGT AS MID LVL S/W EXITS OFF THE CST. ONGOING ISOLD SHRAS INVOF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (DORCHESTER COUNTY) AND FARMVILLE IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT S-SW THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ANY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 0.01 INCHES AT BEST. OTRW...MOST AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR VA AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. WNDS VRB AND MNLY LGT THIS EVE...BECOMING NNE AFT MDNGT...AND A LTL BREEZY NR THE CST (ESP LT). LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M/U50S INLAND TO L60S RIGHT NR THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANOTHER PD OF ONSHORE WNDS FM FRI INTO SUN AS LARGE SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM SE CANADA ACRS NEW ENG. ALONG W/ THE NE WNDS (BREEZY AT THE CST) WILL BE PDS OF CLDNS...ESP FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG. WHILE NO TRIGGER FOR PCPN ACRS THE RGN...NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRAS OR DRIZZLE DUE TO THE ENE SFC WNDS. BY SAT AFTN...THE MARITIME FLO WEAKENS...PTNTLLY ALLOWING DRYING OVR THE FA. HWVR...SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/FL CST FRI NGT...IS FORECAST TO SLOLY TRACK NE OFF THE SE CONUS CST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS WRT THIS SFC LO (NAM SLOWER THAN GFS W/ ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT). RIGHT NOW...ECMWF/GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THAT SYSTEMS MOISTURE TO THE E. WILL BRING INCRSG CLDNS TO CSTL SECTIONS OF THE FA BEGINNING SAT...WHILE KEEPING OTHER PLACES AT WORST PCLDY. BY SUN...THE LO XPCD TO TRACK AWAY FM THE CST...RESULTING IN DRY/SEASONABLY WARM CONDS OVR THE FA. HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U70S. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE U70S AT THE CST TO L/M80S INLAND. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING THROUGH THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES-WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGS CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS KRIC AND KSBY. THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE CIGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET. AFTER THE TROF MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL DEVELOP A STEADY EAST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KTS FOR KECG AND KORF STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH WIND OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED STRATACU AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET. IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES/DISSIPATES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER...AVG 5-10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT (LOCALLY UP TO 3 IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND SEAS 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES NELY TONIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SPEEDS REACHING 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE...NE FLOW AND WARM WATERS MAY RESULT IN SCA WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CAPPED AT 20 KT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE FRI...FIRST IN THE NRN WATERS...THEN SPREADING SWD OVER THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING-NIGHT. SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI THRU FRI NIGHT (THIRD PERIOD). IF FLOW IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 4 FT WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WINDS...BUT SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WRT LOW PRESSURE LEND LITTLE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BUT FLOW WILL BRIEFLY BECOME S-SELY LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS. SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER WARM WATERS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCA CONDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...JDM/JAB MARINE...SAM

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