Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 050800 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW. ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30% POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS. && .MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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