Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272143 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 543 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND 00Z. PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN... TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S. MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND. OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS IN THE 60S. UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20% FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S. MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN. HIGHS L-M80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG. THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR TO THE W/SW WINDS. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI. WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG

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