Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170551 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 151 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle just off the mid Atlantic coast through Monday. The High will slide south of the area Monday night through Wednesday...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Latest analysis depicts ~1020mb surface high pressure centered from the Carolinas ewd off the coast. The sky is mostly clear this evening, with some high clouds streaming in from the nw as a shortwave trough pushes across the Northeast. A return SSW flow noted in low levels has allowed temperatures to be ~10-15F warmer than last evening, with readings averaging in the upper 50s to low 60s from the piedmont to the Ern Shore, with mid/upper 60s over far se VA/ne NC. The surface high begins to slide south along the SE coast later tonight. Mainly clear sky and a light SSW flow expected overnight, expect a much milder night with lows to avg in the mid 50s to around 60 F. Some patchy fog possible, but should be less widespread than what occurred earlier this morning. The high becomes positioned off the SE coast on Mon, and warming trend continues with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong/anomalous upper level ridge builds ENE from the western Gulf across the deep south and into the Carolinas for the first half of the week ahead. Meanwhile, Sfc high pressure builds along and just offshore of the SE coast. Resultant return flow/building heights aloft will promote continued warming trend Mon-Wed, with high temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above avg. PW values remain AOB 0.75" throughout this period, w/dry and mostly sunny conditions expected to prevail. Highs Tue/Wed will avg in the lower to mid 80s (with the potential for some upper 80s). Some record highs could be challenged (see Climate Section for details). Early morning lows in the upper 50s to lower-mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Anomalous upper level trough deepens over the central CONUS Thursday, with an associated cold front locating over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a weakness under the western Atlantic ridge progged to lift northward late in the day Thursday, with an associated surface low location well offshore of the Southeast coast. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the local area Thursday, with 850mb temps still around +14-16C (+1 standard deviation). The result will be another day of well above normal temperatures, with highs generally in the upper 70`s to low 80`s. While spatial and timing differences remain with respect to the cold front and offshore low pressure system, expect the front to cross the central Appalachians late Thursday night, dropping into the local area Friday. Guidance in better agreement with the offshore low, lifting it northward Friday and keeping it offshore. The strengthening pressure gradient could produce gusty north to northeast winds along the coast late Friday and Friday night. 1000- 500mb relative humidity decreases as the front reaches the local area, with the best moisture located along the coast and offshore. Will keep mention of slight chance to chance POP`s Thursday night, ramping up to solid chance POP`s Friday as strong upper level dynamics will likely overcome limited moisture. Could be a large spread of daytime temperatures Friday, with highs expected to range from the mid/upper 60`s northwest to mid(possibly upper) 70`s southeast. Sticking with the slightly quicker ECWMF solution, the front pushes offshore Friday night. Will keep low end chance POP`s for the northeast half of the forecast area Saturday to account for the uncertainty. Cooler Saturday with highs generally in the mid 60`s with a northwest wind. Dry Sunday as high pressure builds across the Southeast. Highs generally in the mid to upper 60`s, after morning temperatures in the 40`s to low 50`s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Predominate VFR conditions at area terminals this morning. Patchy fog expected to once again develop across the region. Added MVFR for visibility at all sites except ORF starting around sunrise due to the patchy fog potential. Did go a bit more pessimistic at PHF with more typical local IFR/LIFR from time to time through the night. Any fog should again quickly diminish after 13-14Z with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook: Dry weather/VFR conditions are expected to persist through Thursday. The next chance for showers arrives Friday as a cold front passes/moisture increases due to an inverted trough off the Carolina coast. Patchy fog will remain possible each morning, mainly around sunrise.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers ~1022mb high pressure just offshore. The result is a light south to southeast wind (at or below 10 knots) over the waters. Waves generally 1-2 feet and seas 2-3 feet. High pressure slides south of the waters tonight, with flow becoming southwest 5-15 knots through Monday. Waves 1-2 feet and seas 2-4 feet. The high slides offshore Tuesday as flow remains southwest. The gradient strengthens slightly Tuesday night as low pressure tracks into southeast Canada. Expect a southwest wind of 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday as low pressure off the Southeast coast lifts northward. The surface low is forecast to remain offshore, with the front pushing through the region late Thursday night and Friday. There still remains some spatial and timing differences in the guidance with respect to the cold front, but SCA conditions appear possible Friday night. Seas build to 4-6 feet. Waves 2-4 feet. SCA conditions could linger through Saturday before high pressure returns to the Southeast late in the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Equipment issue... Astronomical tide information is not ingesting properly and has resulted in missing data within the experimental total water level hydrographs beyond 00Z Tuesday. Estimated return to service is Monday or Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Very warm conditions this week with the possibility of challenging some records listed below: * Record Highs * Mon (10/17) Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 86 (1925) 88 (1938) 87 (1938) 89 (1984) * ORF 87 (1925) 86 (2011) 87 (2007) 87 (1984) * SBY 87 (1908) 86 (1908) 84 (1938) 84 (1984) * Record high Mins: * Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 67 (1980) 73 (2007) 68 (1916) * ORF 68 (1980) 73 (2007) 70 (1916) * SBY 70 (1975) 71 (2007) 68 (1916) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD/SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.