Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 170551
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
151 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
High pressure will settle just off the mid Atlantic coast through
Monday. The High will slide south of the area Monday night through
Wednesday...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area
through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Latest analysis depicts ~1020mb surface high pressure centered
from the Carolinas ewd off the coast. The sky is mostly clear this
evening, with some high clouds streaming in from the nw as a
shortwave trough pushes across the Northeast. A return SSW flow
noted in low levels has allowed temperatures to be ~10-15F warmer
than last evening, with readings averaging in the upper 50s to
low 60s from the piedmont to the Ern Shore, with mid/upper 60s
over far se VA/ne NC.
The surface high begins to slide south along the SE coast later
tonight. Mainly clear sky and a light SSW flow expected
overnight, expect a much milder night with lows to avg in the mid
50s to around 60 F. Some patchy fog possible, but should be less
widespread than what occurred earlier this morning. The high
becomes positioned off the SE coast on Mon, and warming trend
continues with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong/anomalous upper level ridge builds ENE from the western
Gulf across the deep south and into the Carolinas for the first
half of the week ahead. Meanwhile, Sfc high pressure builds along
and just offshore of the SE coast. Resultant return flow/building
heights aloft will promote continued warming trend Mon-Wed, with
high temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above avg. PW values
remain AOB 0.75" throughout this period, w/dry and mostly sunny
conditions expected to prevail. Highs Tue/Wed will avg in the
lower to mid 80s (with the potential for some upper 80s). Some
record highs could be challenged (see Climate Section for
details). Early morning lows in the upper 50s to lower-mid 60s
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Anomalous upper level trough deepens over the central CONUS
Thursday, with an associated cold front locating over the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, a weakness under the western Atlantic ridge
progged to lift northward late in the day Thursday, with an
associated surface low location well offshore of the Southeast
coast. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the local area
Thursday, with 850mb temps still around +14-16C (+1 standard
deviation). The result will be another day of well above normal
temperatures, with highs generally in the upper 70`s to low 80`s.
While spatial and timing differences remain with respect to the cold
front and offshore low pressure system, expect the front to cross
the central Appalachians late Thursday night, dropping into the
local area Friday. Guidance in better agreement with the offshore
low, lifting it northward Friday and keeping it offshore. The
strengthening pressure gradient could produce gusty north to
northeast winds along the coast late Friday and Friday night. 1000-
500mb relative humidity decreases as the front reaches the local
area, with the best moisture located along the coast and offshore.
Will keep mention of slight chance to chance POP`s Thursday night,
ramping up to solid chance POP`s Friday as strong upper level
dynamics will likely overcome limited moisture. Could be a large
spread of daytime temperatures Friday, with highs expected to range
from the mid/upper 60`s northwest to mid(possibly upper) 70`s
southeast. Sticking with the slightly quicker ECWMF solution, the
front pushes offshore Friday night. Will keep low end chance POP`s
for the northeast half of the forecast area Saturday to account for
the uncertainty. Cooler Saturday with highs generally in the mid
60`s with a northwest wind. Dry Sunday as high pressure builds
across the Southeast. Highs generally in the mid to upper 60`s,
after morning temperatures in the 40`s to low 50`s.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Predominate VFR conditions at area terminals this morning. Patchy
fog expected to once again develop across the region. Added MVFR
for visibility at all sites except ORF starting around sunrise due
to the patchy fog potential. Did go a bit more pessimistic at PHF
with more typical local IFR/LIFR from time to time through the
night. Any fog should again quickly diminish after 13-14Z with
VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
Outlook: Dry weather/VFR conditions are expected to persist through
Thursday. The next chance for showers arrives Friday as a cold front
passes/moisture increases due to an inverted trough off the Carolina
coast. Patchy fog will remain possible each morning, mainly around
-- End Changed Discussion --
Latest surface analysis centers ~1022mb high pressure just offshore.
The result is a light south to southeast wind (at or below 10 knots)
over the waters. Waves generally 1-2 feet and seas 2-3 feet. High
pressure slides south of the waters tonight, with flow becoming
southwest 5-15 knots through Monday. Waves 1-2 feet and seas 2-4
feet. The high slides offshore Tuesday as flow remains southwest.
The gradient strengthens slightly Tuesday night as low pressure
tracks into southeast Canada. Expect a southwest wind of 10-15
knots. Seas 2-4 feet. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday
as low pressure off the Southeast coast lifts northward. The surface
low is forecast to remain offshore, with the front pushing through
the region late Thursday night and Friday. There still remains some
spatial and timing differences in the guidance with respect to the
cold front, but SCA conditions appear possible Friday night. Seas
build to 4-6 feet. Waves 2-4 feet. SCA conditions could linger
through Saturday before high pressure returns to the Southeast late
in the weekend.
Astronomical tide information is not ingesting properly and has
resulted in missing data within the experimental total water level
hydrographs beyond 00Z Tuesday. Estimated return to service is Monday
Very warm conditions this week with the possibility of challenging
some records listed below:
* Record Highs
* Mon (10/17) Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20)
* RIC 86 (1925) 88 (1938) 87 (1938) 89 (1984)
* ORF 87 (1925) 86 (2011) 87 (2007) 87 (1984)
* SBY 87 (1908) 86 (1908) 84 (1938) 84 (1984)
* Record high Mins:
* Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20)
* RIC 67 (1980) 73 (2007) 68 (1916)
* ORF 68 (1980) 73 (2007) 70 (1916)
* SBY 70 (1975) 71 (2007) 68 (1916)