Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160559 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 159 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... IN MY 20 YEARS HERE AT AKQ...NOT SURE I HAVE SEEN ALL THESE EVENTS OCCURRED ACROSS THE FA AS THEY HAVE DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. 1) A 30 DEGREE TEMP DROP IN 2 HRS...2) WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY GUSTING BETWEEN 60-70 MPH...3) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...4) SOME SLEET BEING REPORTED W & N OF RIC. JUST ANTHR DAY IN PARADISE. CULPRIT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THRU THE NIGHT. MDT TO OCNL HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND E OF I95 WITH PCPN QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL TREND GRIDS WITH HIGH POPS NEXT 1-3 HRS THEN QUICKLY END W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT WITH ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OF THE COLUMN RESULTING IN DCRG CLDNS AND CLRG EXPECTED AFTR 06Z. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AS PCPN ENDS...BUT WON`T INDCT THIS IN GRIDS ATTM. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 30-40 WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST NEXT SVRL HRS THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DMNSH LATE. INLAND WINDS 20-30 MPH WILL DMNSH LATE AS WELL. LSR OF THIS EVENING EVENTS TO FOLLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT... CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY... TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT THRU THU.
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&& .MARINE... GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024. NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012. VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049- 060>085-087>094. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632- 634>638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...LSA LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAS

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