Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221726 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 126 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will linger over the Mid Atlantic through Monday. This trough will gradually move offshore Monday night into Tuesday. An upper level ridge will build in from the west by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No major changes, with going forecast in good shape. CAMS continue to favor a solution that brings increased areal coverage of light rain (patchy drizzle). Not anticipating a washout of a day by any means, but periods of rain are expected. The highest concentration should be across northern third of the area, but high chance pops (40-50%) are warranted for all zones through the day. Forecast highs still look to be on track, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s for most, some mid 60s far sw zones...under a mostly cloudy sky. previous discussion... GOES water vapor imagery shows a wave of low pressure gradually lifting to the ne off the coast. Meanwhile, a deep vigorous trough is digging sewd through the Great Lakes and toward the Appalachians. The low-level flow is rather weak in the wake of the departing system, so low clouds are lingering along with areas of light rain or drizzle, which at this time is most concentrated over the Lower MD Ern Shore. Temperatures average from the mid 50s to around 60. Nearly saturated conditions are occurring. However, stratus has prevailed instead of fog, and this should continue through the early morning hours. The upper trough will continue to dig sewd into the Mid-Atlantic today, with 500mb heights dropping to around -2 st dev per 22/03z SREF by later this afternoon/early evening. The best lift will center over nrn portions of the area by this afternoon, with likely PoPs forecast n of I-64, with 30-40% farther s. Mostly cloudy to overcast today and cool with cloud cover holding high temperatures to -1.5-2 st dev. Forecast highs range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the nrn 2/3rds of the area, to the mid 60s from the sw Piedmont to ne NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper trough settles over se VA and Ern NC tonight into at least Monday morning and remaining -2 st dev, before beginning a slow drift offshore by Monday afternoon. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions continue along with well below normal temperatures during the day. The best area of lift gradually sinks swd through the area tonight into Monday morning, with a corresponding zone of likely PoPs passing from central/e-central VA to se VA/ne NC by Monday morning. Rainfall should become more showery Monday afternoon with a slight chc of thunder over the Piedmont where there will be some instability. Highs Monday range from the mid 60s along the coast to the upper 60s inland after morning lows in the low/mid 50s. The upper system gradually pushes offshore and begins to fill Monday night into Tuesday. Partial clearing is possible over the Piedmont Monday night, but sky cover should remain mostly cloudy along the coast along with a chc of showers. By Tuesday partly to mostly sunny conditions are expected farther inland with partly to mostly cloudy conditions persisting closer to the coast. Chc PoPs will be maintained along the coast where some upper energy lingers with thunder possible as there will be instability. Warmer with highs ranging from 75-80 inland, and 70-75 closer to the coast (upper 60s at the immediate coast). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure settles off the Southeast Coast as upper level ridging resides directly over the entire East Coast Tue night through Thu. Developing sw flow Thu night/Fri will likely open the door for increasing humidity and rain/thunderstorm chances Thu/Fri aftns as conditions become increasingly unstable. Overall, high temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal Wed-Fri. Highs generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s beaches). Low temps also running about 5 degrees above normal Wed/Thu night. Seasonal lows Tue night in the mid 50s nw to lower 60s se. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A moist and unsettled pattern will persist thru Monday, as an upr low drops southward into/ovr the fcst area. This feature will maintain MVFR/IFR conditions across the region. Most TAF sites have become MVFR as of 17Z, and expect MVFR to dominate through 00Z. Exception will be KSBY, where IFR will prevail. Scattered showers becoming more widespread during the last hour, and these will affect all terminals but KECG, which looks to remain dry through much of the 18Z TAF period. Latest METARs suggest ceilings will remain MVFR in showers, so have limited amount of IFR through 00Z. Expect IFR to dominate after 00Z, as cool/moist flow around upr low persists. In addition, rain likely to become more widespread, and have accounted for that in TAFs. Upr trof begins crossing region Monday, with dry air in low/mid levels trying to filter into the region as the day wears on. This should allow for ceilings to become MVFR everywhere, with some VFR possible toward the end of the TAF period. The upr low and associated trof will finally slide ene of the region Tue aftn, with slowly improving flying conditions. OUTLOOK...High pressure surface and aloft builds over the Mid Atlc States with mainly dry weather Tue aftn thru Fri.
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&& .MARINE... Update...slight adjustments made to ongoing SCA flags for coastal waters. Combined zone 654 with nrn waters which will end at 100 am Mon night and ended SCA flags for srn waters at 800 pm Mon evening as seas drop below 5 ft. Also added Ches Bay and Currituck Sound back into the mix with SCA winds 15-20kt beginning early Mon morning. Expect gusts around 25kt over coastal waters and the mouth of Ches Bay Mon morning. Please see updated Marine Weather Message (WBCMWWAKQ) for further details. Previous discussion... Early this morng, sfc low pressure was well off the NJ cst and will continue to track ne into the nrn Atlc today. Then at the same time and thru Mon morng, upr air low pressure will drop down into/ovr the area to just offshr. The upr low and associated trof will finally slide ene of the area Tue aftn. This will result in northerly winds continuing ovr the wtrs thru Mon with the strongest winds occurring ovr Ches Bay, Currituck Snd, and the Cstl wtrs. Seas will stay up between 4 and 7 feet today into Mon ngt so will have SCA for all the Cstl wtrs. Conditions quiet down Tue thru Thu as high pressure at the sfc and aloft build over the region. Generally w or sw winds around 10 kt or less should be anticipated. Seas average 2-3 ft Tue aftn thru Thu. Waves average 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG/WRS MARINE...BMD/TMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.