Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 121158 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 658 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic today. A backdoor cold front drops down from the north this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds over New England. Some unsettled weather is expected during the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis places a frontal boundary stretching from the eastern Great Lakes region southwestward into the Southern Plains. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between these features has resulted in a south to southwest wind of 5-15 mph early this morning. The added mixing has limited fog to little more than patchy, shallow ground fog. However, the obs and satellite indicate that stratus has begun to develop over the Piedmont, with some visible across the southeast forecast area as well. Temperatures begin the day in the low to mid 50`s (actually near seasonal highs). The NAM holds onto the low level moisture through mid morning, but with warm temperatures and warm advection associated with breezy southwest winds, temperatures will have little trouble warming into the mid 60`s today (15-20F above seasonal averages). Continued to stay on the cool-side of guidance given the ground will be cool and moist, even with most of the snow gone. Mostly cloudy this morning becomes partly sunny this afternoon. The cold front slowly approaches the region from the north tonight as the strong Canadian upper low tracks across the Great Lakes. Mild again tonight thanks to ongoing southwest winds/mixing and increasing clouds across the north. Lows generally in the upper 40`s to around 50. Mixing will again limit fog development, with patchy shallow ground fog at best. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong surface high pressure (1045+mb) builds across the Great Lakes Friday in wake of the potent upper low lifting over the Canadian Maritimes. An associated cold front drops into the region, pushing into the northern portions of the area by mid to late morning. The front progged to push through the region through late Friday as the upper high weakens over the Southeast. The wind becomes northerly behind the front, along with falling temperatures. With a slightly quicker front compared to 24 hours ago, have trended temperatures down slightly with highs forecast now in the low to mid 50`s north to low 60`s south. Highs will be reached early afternoon, with temperatures falling into the 40`s through late Friday. Have also increased cloud cover to cloudy Friday as BUFR soundings and model guidance indicate high relative humidity in the low levels. Based on the lack of forcing and westerly flow aloft, have kept POPs silent late Friday. High pressure continues to build into the region from the north-northeast Friday night. Temperatures steadily fall overnight with lows eventually ranging from the low 30`s north to the mid to upper 30`s south. 12/00Z guidance continues to indicate some light overrunning precipitation, with GFS/NAM 295K surfaces spreading the overrunning moisture across the northwest half of the local area toward the Maryland Eastern Shore. Enough low level cold air arrives late (mainly below 900mb) to bring a chance of rain/freezing rain/sleet across the northern forecast area. 850Mb temps expected to stay between +3 to +5C. Best chances for light freezing rain expected from Caroline County eastward to the Northern Neck to the Maryland Eastern Shore, where temperatures are forecast to be the coldest. Farther south toward Richmond and the Middle Peninsula, sleet may mix with the cold rain at times. High pressure slides off the Northeast coast Saturday as the frontal boundary stalls over the Southeast. The result will be ongoing northeast flow and wedge conditions. Overrunning/warm air advection continues, with ongoing light rain/drizzle Saturday morning through the afternoon, especially across the north and northeast. Temperatures and low level thicknesses warm through the afternoon, with the p-type becoming all rain across the forecast area. Overall, forcing and moisture will be limited, resulting in only light QPF amounts. A shortwave tracking across the Northeast Saturday may enhance the light rain briefly, but QPF amount expected to be at or below 15 hundredths of an inch through Saturday. Cloudy again Saturday with highs in the upper 30`s north to mid 40`s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure slides across New England early next week with a weakening frontal boundary meandering across the sern US. Several weak impulses of energy progged to move east across the region resulting in periodic chcs for pcpn Sunday and Sunday night. Thermal profiles suggest some mixed pcpn (rain/sleet) across the lwr MD eastern shore late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Otw, cloudy with light rain/drizzle. Lows Saturday night in the 30s. Highs Sunday in the 40s except lwr 50s srn most zones. Lows Sunday night in the 30s. A warm front lifts north across the area Monday as low pressure tracks NE into the upr Gt Lakes region. The trailing cold front not progged across the area until next Thursday. Despite the fa being in the "warm sector" data suggests plenty of moisture at different levels to keep the skies rather cldy with periodic chcs for pcpn. Went ahead and changed pcpn type to more of a convective one Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Monday mid 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Monday night mid 30s to lwr 40s. Highs Tuesday ranging from 50-55 eastern shore to the lwr 60s west of the bay. Lows Tuesday night in the 40s. Highs Wednesday from the lwr-mid 50s Eastern shore to lwr-mid 60s west of the Bay. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... South to southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots this morning and mid to high level clouds have limited fog development early this morning. Stratus has developed over the Piedmont into central Virginia, but with no impact on the TAF sites early this morning. Cannot rule out a brief few to scattered low clouds into Richmond. Low level wind shear still an issue early this morning, until winds at the surface increase. A warm front lifts north of the region today, with more breezy southwest flow. Expected gusts to 25 to 30 knots. Stratus will be slow to burn off this morning over the Piedmont, but expect VFR conditions beyond mid morning today. Scattered to broken mid level clouds expected this afternoon. A backdoor cold front drops back into the area late tonight into Friday, shifting winds back to the N/NE as strong high pressure builds north of the region. This has the potential to bring another round of degraded flight conditions late tonight through Sat, with some mixed precipitation possible by Sat morning over the N and mainly rain elsewhere. Continued flight restrictions possible into Sunday as a frontal boundary lingers across southern Va or NC. && .MARINE... SCA headlines remain in place for the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters into/through this eve as SW gradient tightens. Gusts to between 25-30 kts over the coastal waters are possible with minimal SCAs in the Bay. Will also have (patchy) morning fog across the waters before the winds increase. Will carry 1-3NM VSBYS. Backdoor cold front moves N-S across the waters Fri turning the winds back into a NNE direction. Models continue to indicate a meager gradient over the waters...but with a 1045+mb surface high tracking across the Great Lakes...(low end) SCA (wind) conditions are possible. Seas also build to 4-6 ft into Fri night. Sfc hi pres slides into New England Sat...ridging S over the FA waters. Onshore flow persists. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Latest storm surge guidance indicates a (prolonged) period of below normal tides into Sat. Tidal locations along the Atlantic coast...lower Ches Bay/James River can expect departures of -1.0 to -1.3 MLLW. A Low Water Advisory will continue through 21Z/12...and probably will need to be extended further. && .CLIMATE...
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Well above normal temperatures are expected today across the region. Some record maximum temperatures may be challenged, just a few days after setting several record lows. Records Max Temps for today, Jan 12: ------------- Richmond: 71 (2005) Norfolk: 75 (1890) Salisbury, MD: 64 (1932) Elizabeth City, NC: 70 (2005, 1963) Wallops Island: 65 (1980)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-638-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...SAM/JEF MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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