Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191506 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALL AREAS. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE). CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS). THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. && .FIRE WEATHER... WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE THE WILDFIRE DANGER. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB FIRE WEATHER...

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