Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 221726
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
A trough of low pressure will linger over the Mid Atlantic through
Monday. This trough will gradually move offshore Monday night into
Tuesday. An upper level ridge will build in from the west by the
middle of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes, with going forecast in good shape. CAMS continue
to favor a solution that brings increased areal coverage of light
rain (patchy drizzle). Not anticipating a washout of a day by any
means, but periods of rain are expected. The highest concentration
should be across northern third of the area, but high chance pops
(40-50%) are warranted for all zones through the day. Forecast
highs still look to be on track, with highs in the upper 50s to
low 60s for most, some mid 60s far sw zones...under a mostly
GOES water vapor imagery shows a wave of low pressure gradually
lifting to the ne off the coast. Meanwhile, a deep vigorous trough
is digging sewd through the Great Lakes and toward the
Appalachians. The low-level flow is rather weak in the wake of the
departing system, so low clouds are lingering along with areas of
light rain or drizzle, which at this time is most concentrated
over the Lower MD Ern Shore. Temperatures average from the mid 50s
to around 60. Nearly saturated conditions are occurring. However,
stratus has prevailed instead of fog, and this should continue
through the early morning hours.
The upper trough will continue to dig sewd into the Mid-Atlantic
today, with 500mb heights dropping to around -2 st dev per 22/03z
SREF by later this afternoon/early evening. The best lift will
center over nrn portions of the area by this afternoon, with likely
PoPs forecast n of I-64, with 30-40% farther s. Mostly cloudy to
overcast today and cool with cloud cover holding high temperatures
to -1.5-2 st dev. Forecast highs range from the upper 50s to low 60s
across the nrn 2/3rds of the area, to the mid 60s from the sw
Piedmont to ne NC.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper trough settles over se VA and Ern NC tonight
into at least Monday morning and remaining -2 st dev, before
beginning a slow drift offshore by Monday afternoon. Mostly cloudy
to overcast conditions continue along with well below normal
temperatures during the day. The best area of lift gradually sinks
swd through the area tonight into Monday morning, with a
corresponding zone of likely PoPs passing from central/e-central VA
to se VA/ne NC by Monday morning. Rainfall should become more
showery Monday afternoon with a slight chc of thunder over the
Piedmont where there will be some instability. Highs Monday range
from the mid 60s along the coast to the upper 60s inland after
morning lows in the low/mid 50s.
The upper system gradually pushes offshore and begins to fill Monday
night into Tuesday. Partial clearing is possible over the Piedmont
Monday night, but sky cover should remain mostly cloudy along the
coast along with a chc of showers. By Tuesday partly to mostly sunny
conditions are expected farther inland with partly to mostly cloudy
conditions persisting closer to the coast. Chc PoPs will be
maintained along the coast where some upper energy lingers with
thunder possible as there will be instability. Warmer with highs
ranging from 75-80 inland, and 70-75 closer to the coast (upper 60s
at the immediate coast).
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high pressure settles off the Southeast Coast as upper level
ridging resides directly over the entire East Coast Tue night
through Thu. Developing sw flow Thu night/Fri will likely open the
door for increasing humidity and rain/thunderstorm chances Thu/Fri
aftns as conditions become increasingly unstable. Overall, high
temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal Wed-Fri. Highs
generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s beaches). Low temps also
running about 5 degrees above normal Wed/Thu night. Seasonal lows
Tue night in the mid 50s nw to lower 60s se.
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A moist and unsettled pattern will persist thru Monday, as an upr
low drops southward into/ovr the fcst area. This feature will
maintain MVFR/IFR conditions across the region. Most TAF sites
have become MVFR as of 17Z, and expect MVFR to dominate through
00Z. Exception will be KSBY, where IFR will prevail. Scattered
showers becoming more widespread during the last hour, and these
will affect all terminals but KECG, which looks to remain dry
through much of the 18Z TAF period. Latest METARs suggest ceilings
will remain MVFR in showers, so have limited amount of IFR through
00Z. Expect IFR to dominate after 00Z, as cool/moist flow around
upr low persists. In addition, rain likely to become more
widespread, and have accounted for that in TAFs. Upr trof begins
crossing region Monday, with dry air in low/mid levels trying to
filter into the region as the day wears on. This should allow for
ceilings to become MVFR everywhere, with some VFR possible toward
the end of the TAF period. The upr low and associated trof will
finally slide ene of the region Tue aftn, with slowly improving
OUTLOOK...High pressure surface and aloft builds over the Mid
Atlc States with mainly dry weather Tue aftn thru Fri.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Update...slight adjustments made to ongoing SCA flags for coastal
waters. Combined zone 654 with nrn waters which will end at 100 am
Mon night and ended SCA flags for srn waters at 800 pm Mon
evening as seas drop below 5 ft. Also added Ches Bay and Currituck
Sound back into the mix with SCA winds 15-20kt beginning early Mon
morning. Expect gusts around 25kt over coastal waters and the
mouth of Ches Bay Mon morning. Please see updated Marine Weather
Message (WBCMWWAKQ) for further details.
Early this morng, sfc low pressure was well off the NJ cst and
will continue to track ne into the nrn Atlc today. Then at the
same time and thru Mon morng, upr air low pressure will drop
down into/ovr the area to just offshr. The upr low and associated
trof will finally slide ene of the area Tue aftn. This will result
in northerly winds continuing ovr the wtrs thru Mon with the
strongest winds occurring ovr Ches Bay, Currituck Snd, and the
Cstl wtrs. Seas will stay up between 4 and 7 feet today into Mon
ngt so will have SCA for all the Cstl wtrs.
Conditions quiet down Tue thru Thu as high pressure at the sfc and
aloft build over the region. Generally w or sw winds around 10 kt
or less should be anticipated. Seas average 2-3 ft Tue aftn thru
Thu. Waves average 1-2 ft.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.