Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200116 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 916 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves slowly south into the Carolinas by Wednesday where it will dissipate later in the week. High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic States and then settles over the Southeast late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 9 pm update...Will be making some changes to near term grids based upon current conditions. Threat for severe weather has ended, and thunderstorms should either dissipate or be out of the cwa by midnight. Should be enough clearing overnight, with light winds, to allow some fog to form, at least in areas where more significant rainfall occurred. ...previous discussion...A weak cold front extended east to west across central Virginia Tuesday afternoon. A short wave trough over the upper Ohio Valley was deepening as it moves to the southeast. High pressure situated in Michigan was building to the southeast behind the aforementioned cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms covering most of our CWA except areas toward the coast. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for most of out Virginia counties except near the coast through 9 PM EDT. The main threat is for damaging winds with a minimal for large hail. Scattered thunderstorms were developing over the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon and are expected to increase to the southeast this evening. Steep lapse rates aided by a strong short wave trough along with various boundaries will contribute to the severe potential. CAPEs of 2 to 3 K J/Kg are indicated in portions of the CWA and especially northeast North Carolina. Shear and forcing is limited and the severe threat may remain unorganized. POPs due to thunderstorms will be likely in the I95 Corridor including Metro Richmond from 5 to 8 PM and then move southeast into Hampton Roads and most of northeast North Carolina after 8 PM. The area of thunderstorms will diminish or move out of the CWA shortly after Midnight. NAM12 suggests some upper level impulses and left over instability warranting low chance POPs for several hours behind the main area of thunderstorms. through the pre-dawn hours. Patchy fog is forecast during the predawn hours over inland portions of Virginia and North Carolina with most visbilities dropping to 1 to 3 miles with local areas possibly lowering below a mile. Visibilities improve by around 8 AM. Low temperatures are expected to be around 70 degrees Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Trough axis pushes offshore Wednesday as the upper level ridge amplifies over the nation`s mid section. Surface high pressure builds into New England and southward into our region. There is enough guidance to support chance POPs over far southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina with slight chance POPs across eastern Virginia and the lower Eastern Shore. POPs decrease after 18z. Temperatures and dew points will be a bit lower making for a more comfortable day. Highs range from the mid to upper 80s. Northeast winds will keep areas near the coast closer to 80 degrees. Most locations will have a mainly clear sky Wednesday night. Lows range from the mid to upper 60s inland to lower 70s southeast. Some of the models suggest isolated precipitation Thursday through Friday but there`s not enough confidence to include any in the forecast. Surface high pressure slides offshore Thursday as the upper level ridge builds eastward. Plenty of sunshine will support highs in the upper 80`s to around 90. As we get toward Friday...Bermuda high pressure begins to dominate. Upper level ridging increases its influence over the area. This results in much higher temperatures. Lows Thursday night range from 70 to 75. High temperatures Friday are forecast to reach 90 to 95. Heat indices may reach just over 100 at some locations over inland Virginia east of Interstate 95. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period will feature mainly dry conditions and above normal temps. For Friday night/Saturday, dry wx expected as surface high pressure stays off the se coast and a broad upper-level ridge slides east into the eastern Conus. Cannot rule out an aftn/eveng shra/tstm, but chance for rain is less than 20%. Very similar conditions for Sun with a weak thermal trough over the Mid Atlc and weak zonal flow aloft. Expect hi temps in the mid/upr 90s both days, and with dewpoints in the lo/mid 70s, aftn heat indices will reach near 105F (heat advsry criteria). Temps a bit lower for Mon/Tue...but still hot with highs in the 90s. Mainly climatological PoPs (20-30%) in the aftn/eveng. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to move south through far SE VA and NE NC through about 03Z. Have included gusty winds and heavy rain at KPHF/KORF/KECG...with brief IFR conditions possible. Some lingering showers/tstms are possible over northeast NC thru 06Z. In the wake of the showers, there is the the potential for patchy fog and/or low clouds through 12Z/Wed with some MVFR to IFR possible at all TAF sites. Conditions improve for the mid/late morning hours Wednesday into the early afternoon. Widely scattered tstms may develop over southern/eastern areas during the late afternoon/evening. OUTLOOK...Drier conditions and mainly VFR conditions are expected late week. && .MARINE... No headlines necessary over the next several days. Latest sfc analysis shows hi pressure off the se coast with a weak frontal boundary dropping thru the Mid Atlc. With the frnt in the vicinity, winds remain variable and under 10 kt this aftn/eveng. As the frnt drops to the south tonight, winds will bcm northeasterly and up to 10-15 kt by Wed morng. Winds then transition to the southeast Thu then south Fri. Waves over the Bay thru the period will be 1-2 ft, with seas over coastal waters 2-3 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...LSA/WRS SHORT TERM...LSA LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM/JAO MARINE...MAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.