Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 241916
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
316 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions continue today. High pressure builds in from the
north bringing drier conditions today into early next week.
Unsettled weather returns by mid-late week with additional rain
likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Sunday...
Generally quiet this morning with offshore low pressure
continuing to spin away. High pressure is also building over
Quebec and extends S/SE into the Great Lakes region. Compressed
pressure gradient is keeping elevated northerly winds across the
region, especially along the coast. However, obs having been
reporting gusts well below the 40-45 mph range for several hrs
now and decided to cancel the wind advisory for all areas with
this morning update. Still could see a few gusts up to 40 mph
through this afternoon. Given the (slowly) decreasing wind and
full sunshine, temps should still be able to rise in the low-mid
50s for most areas (upper 40s along the coast), despite the
cold advection. Think that the short-term models showing highs
in the mid 40s are likely a bit underdone and have trended
closer to the MOS guidance.
With high pressure ridging into the area overnight overnight and the
pressure gradient slacking, winds subside substantially for inland
locations overnight apart from the immediate coast. With light winds
inland and clear skies, temps drop into the upper 30s to lower 30s W
but remain upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast (due to the wind).
While most inland areas are expected to drop below freezing, the
frost/freeze program has only started for NE NC and extreme SE VA
(south of the James River). As such, a Freeze Warning is in effect
for Northampton County, NC with Frost Advisories for Hertford and
Bertie Counties. Will note that while temps may drop below freezing
for portions of the Hertford/Bertie, given slightly stronger winds,
confidence is not high enough for an impactful freeze for crops.
Some patchy frost is possible in SW Suffolk and W Gates County,
however, given the lower confidence in frost formation due to the
wind, will hold off on advisories for these areas at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
High pressure (centered well N of the local) continues to ridge S
into the area Mon and Tues with mostly sunny skies Mon. Clouds
increase Mon night into Tue with mostly cloudy skies Tue ahead of
the next system. Low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies
today, moving NE into Ontario by Tue. This will allow for the
trailing cold front and parent trough to move E by Tue, creating the
cloud cover. Some light showers are possible across W portions of
the FA by late Tue night. Highs in the low-mid 50s NE to lower 60s
SW Mon and Tue. Lows in the lower 30s NW to low-mid 40s SE Mon night
and low-mid 40s Tue night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...
A trough moves E slowly Wed through late week with a cold front
pushing E Wed before stalling over E portions of the FA into Thu.
Some rain is possible along the front Wed, however, with the forcing
so far displaced and the front slowing/weakening, don`t expect
much in terms of QPF. A S stream shortwave trough rounds the
base of the longwave trough and moves towards the E coast Wed
night into Fri morning with models showing the potential for a
coastal low to develop along the stalled cold front along/just
off the coast. This would throw moisture back N into the area
from late Wed into Thu. Confidence has increased in PoPs during
this time with likely PoPs (60-70%) in place for most of the FA
Wed evening through Thu (highest chance along the coast). The
EPS shows the potential for 1- 1.5" of rain with the GEFS
similar but a little lower at 0.75-1". Behind that system, high
pressure builds back in with dry weather returning along with a
warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Prevailing VFR expected at all sites through the period. Will
need to watch some low streamer clouds (w/ 2500 ft CIGs) moving
off the ocean in NE NC, but current thinking is this stays just
SE of ECG. Otherwise, NNE winds remain elevated through the rest
of today (10-20 G25-30 kt). Winds diminish some tonight but
remain gusty at ORF. N winds 10-20 kt expected Mon under a
mainly clear sky.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Mon night. However,
onshore flow and potential cloudiness (w/ lower CIGs) will be
possible Mon night through most of Tue. Additional rain chances
will then be possible late Tue night into Thu night, with
degraded flight conditions possible.
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...
A strong area of surface high pressure centered just south of
Hudson`s Bay continues to push southward along the eastern
seaboard through the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile an area of
low pressure continues to develop along the trailing cold that
moved through the area on Saturday. This area of low pressure is
forecast to deep significantly over the next few days about
halfway between the US coast and Bermuda. This will set the
stage for a strong persistent NE flow between the two weather
systems from today through midweek, before another frontal
system arrives on Wednesday. With the persistent NE flow of 20 -
25 kt over the coastal waters and 15 to 20 kts over the Bay,
expect significant waves of 8 - 12 ft to continue to push
toward the coast. This will lead to high surf along the coast.
So with this forecast update have adjusted headlines to drop
Gales for all but the southern two coastal zones as winds are
coming down below Gale levels but should persist for all put the
rivers above SCA levels. This should linger through Monday
afternoon and perhaps into Monday night before the winds begin
to weaken as the next front approaches from the west and the
area of High pressure continues to slide eastward into the
Canadian Maritimes allowing the pressure gradient to relax. But
the seas will remain up for a much longer period so have already
adjusted the northern coastal waters SCA through early Tuesday
morning and they will likely need to be extended further.
The next front arrives on Wednesday but stalls over the area at
the upper level jet lifts through the Great Lakes into the
Northeastern US. This will briefly allow the winds to relax, but
another wave of low pressure is expected to form along the front
and lift into the Mid-Atlantic States, providing at least SCA
winds and possibly a brief period of gales.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...
A blow out tide (up to 1 ft below normal) will occur along the
Ches Bay side of the lower MD Eastern shore during low tide
later this morning. Otherwise, water levels will begin to slowly
increase over the next 48 hrs as high pressure to our north
interacts with broad low pressure well offshore to cause a
prolonged period of onshore (E-NE) flow and elevated seas
nearshore. This combination of increased winds and elevated seas
will not allow water to flow out of the mouth of the Ches Bay
as efficiently and over time this water will start to back up
into the middle and upper Bay. So, not only will some minor to
moderate coastal flooding be possible along the Atlantic coast
from Ocean City, MD to Currituck, NC starting today, but minor
to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible up the
Ches Bay to Cambridge and Bishops Head, MD starting Monday night
and then continuing for all of the local waters through Tuesday
and possibly Wednesday. Locations across the lower Ches Bay,
the lower James River, and the southern coastal waters from VA
Beach to the northern OBX will have the best chance of reaching
moderate coastal flooding thresholds.
Due to tidal anomalies already increasing rapidly this morning
from about Lynnhaven around to VA Beach and south to Currituck
(given the strong NE winds and building waves/seas), have issued
a Coastal Flood Advisory starting with this morning`s high tide
cycle and continuing through this evening`s high tide cycle.
Additionally, have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for
Norfolk/Portsmouth (namely from Sewells Pt to Money Pt) due to
water levels coming close to minor flood thresholds with this
morning`s high tide cycle. If tidal anomalies continue to trend
as expected, then coastal flood advisories will be necessary
for these same areas for this evening`s high tide cycle and
beyond.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
NCZ012-013.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
NCZ014-030.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652-
654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM/SW
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...