Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241916 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 316 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy conditions continue today. High pressure builds in from the north bringing drier conditions today into early next week. Unsettled weather returns by mid-late week with additional rain likely. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1015 AM EDT Sunday... Generally quiet this morning with offshore low pressure continuing to spin away. High pressure is also building over Quebec and extends S/SE into the Great Lakes region. Compressed pressure gradient is keeping elevated northerly winds across the region, especially along the coast. However, obs having been reporting gusts well below the 40-45 mph range for several hrs now and decided to cancel the wind advisory for all areas with this morning update. Still could see a few gusts up to 40 mph through this afternoon. Given the (slowly) decreasing wind and full sunshine, temps should still be able to rise in the low-mid 50s for most areas (upper 40s along the coast), despite the cold advection. Think that the short-term models showing highs in the mid 40s are likely a bit underdone and have trended closer to the MOS guidance. With high pressure ridging into the area overnight overnight and the pressure gradient slacking, winds subside substantially for inland locations overnight apart from the immediate coast. With light winds inland and clear skies, temps drop into the upper 30s to lower 30s W but remain upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast (due to the wind). While most inland areas are expected to drop below freezing, the frost/freeze program has only started for NE NC and extreme SE VA (south of the James River). As such, a Freeze Warning is in effect for Northampton County, NC with Frost Advisories for Hertford and Bertie Counties. Will note that while temps may drop below freezing for portions of the Hertford/Bertie, given slightly stronger winds, confidence is not high enough for an impactful freeze for crops. Some patchy frost is possible in SW Suffolk and W Gates County, however, given the lower confidence in frost formation due to the wind, will hold off on advisories for these areas at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... High pressure (centered well N of the local) continues to ridge S into the area Mon and Tues with mostly sunny skies Mon. Clouds increase Mon night into Tue with mostly cloudy skies Tue ahead of the next system. Low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies today, moving NE into Ontario by Tue. This will allow for the trailing cold front and parent trough to move E by Tue, creating the cloud cover. Some light showers are possible across W portions of the FA by late Tue night. Highs in the low-mid 50s NE to lower 60s SW Mon and Tue. Lows in the lower 30s NW to low-mid 40s SE Mon night and low-mid 40s Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... A trough moves E slowly Wed through late week with a cold front pushing E Wed before stalling over E portions of the FA into Thu. Some rain is possible along the front Wed, however, with the forcing so far displaced and the front slowing/weakening, don`t expect much in terms of QPF. A S stream shortwave trough rounds the base of the longwave trough and moves towards the E coast Wed night into Fri morning with models showing the potential for a coastal low to develop along the stalled cold front along/just off the coast. This would throw moisture back N into the area from late Wed into Thu. Confidence has increased in PoPs during this time with likely PoPs (60-70%) in place for most of the FA Wed evening through Thu (highest chance along the coast). The EPS shows the potential for 1- 1.5" of rain with the GEFS similar but a little lower at 0.75-1". Behind that system, high pressure builds back in with dry weather returning along with a warming trend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday... Prevailing VFR expected at all sites through the period. Will need to watch some low streamer clouds (w/ 2500 ft CIGs) moving off the ocean in NE NC, but current thinking is this stays just SE of ECG. Otherwise, NNE winds remain elevated through the rest of today (10-20 G25-30 kt). Winds diminish some tonight but remain gusty at ORF. N winds 10-20 kt expected Mon under a mainly clear sky. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Mon night. However, onshore flow and potential cloudiness (w/ lower CIGs) will be possible Mon night through most of Tue. Additional rain chances will then be possible late Tue night into Thu night, with degraded flight conditions possible. && .MARINE...
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As of 315 AM EDT Sunday... A strong area of surface high pressure centered just south of Hudson`s Bay continues to push southward along the eastern seaboard through the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile an area of low pressure continues to develop along the trailing cold that moved through the area on Saturday. This area of low pressure is forecast to deep significantly over the next few days about halfway between the US coast and Bermuda. This will set the stage for a strong persistent NE flow between the two weather systems from today through midweek, before another frontal system arrives on Wednesday. With the persistent NE flow of 20 - 25 kt over the coastal waters and 15 to 20 kts over the Bay, expect significant waves of 8 - 12 ft to continue to push toward the coast. This will lead to high surf along the coast. So with this forecast update have adjusted headlines to drop Gales for all but the southern two coastal zones as winds are coming down below Gale levels but should persist for all put the rivers above SCA levels. This should linger through Monday afternoon and perhaps into Monday night before the winds begin to weaken as the next front approaches from the west and the area of High pressure continues to slide eastward into the Canadian Maritimes allowing the pressure gradient to relax. But the seas will remain up for a much longer period so have already adjusted the northern coastal waters SCA through early Tuesday morning and they will likely need to be extended further. The next front arrives on Wednesday but stalls over the area at the upper level jet lifts through the Great Lakes into the Northeastern US. This will briefly allow the winds to relax, but another wave of low pressure is expected to form along the front and lift into the Mid-Atlantic States, providing at least SCA winds and possibly a brief period of gales.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... A blow out tide (up to 1 ft below normal) will occur along the Ches Bay side of the lower MD Eastern shore during low tide later this morning. Otherwise, water levels will begin to slowly increase over the next 48 hrs as high pressure to our north interacts with broad low pressure well offshore to cause a prolonged period of onshore (E-NE) flow and elevated seas nearshore. This combination of increased winds and elevated seas will not allow water to flow out of the mouth of the Ches Bay as efficiently and over time this water will start to back up into the middle and upper Bay. So, not only will some minor to moderate coastal flooding be possible along the Atlantic coast from Ocean City, MD to Currituck, NC starting today, but minor to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible up the Ches Bay to Cambridge and Bishops Head, MD starting Monday night and then continuing for all of the local waters through Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Locations across the lower Ches Bay, the lower James River, and the southern coastal waters from VA Beach to the northern OBX will have the best chance of reaching moderate coastal flooding thresholds. Due to tidal anomalies already increasing rapidly this morning from about Lynnhaven around to VA Beach and south to Currituck (given the strong NE winds and building waves/seas), have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory starting with this morning`s high tide cycle and continuing through this evening`s high tide cycle. Additionally, have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for Norfolk/Portsmouth (namely from Sewells Pt to Money Pt) due to water levels coming close to minor flood thresholds with this morning`s high tide cycle. If tidal anomalies continue to trend as expected, then coastal flood advisories will be necessary for these same areas for this evening`s high tide cycle and beyond. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ012-013. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ014-030. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM/SW SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...SW MARINE...ESS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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