Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 122051 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 351 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains just offshore of New England, while a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough of low pressure will move across the area and off the coast late tonight through Monday. High pressure returns for Monday night through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Clouds continue to thicken and increase from the west and southwest ahead of the next approaching system. The center of the surface high pressure was over nrn New England, and ridging down into the Mid Atlc. Temperatures were topping out in the mid to upper 40s inland with mid 50s near the coast. Dewpoints remained in the upper 20s across Central VA and MD. The dry air in the low levels across Central VA may play a role in overnight lows as precip moves in later tonight. Precip holds off until after 00z moving into the far southwest reaching Kerr lake and Lake Gaston shortly after 00z/7pm. Light rain will spread northeast into Central VA reaching RIC shortly after 03z/10 pm as isentropic lift increases. Best lift occurs from 03Z through almost 12z/7am across Central VA and expands east to the coast. Have worked to time POPs in the forecast with precip expanding from the southwest and slowly shifting east through the early morning hours. Have expanded likely POPS (60-70%) and categorical POPS (80%+) from later tonight into early Mon aftn. Do not expect a lot of precip fm this system, and some QPF will be lost to evaporation due to the dry airmass in place. Did bump up QPF a little to 0.30 inches, and some location could potentially receive a littler more before the system exits off the coast Mon afternoon. Lows tonight will be tricky as evap cooling will play a role as precip falls into the cool, dry airmass. Expect temps to fall slowly early this evening, but drop to their lows with the onset of precip. Lows should range from the upper 30s inland, to the low to mid 40s closer to the coast / upper 40s over extreme SE VA and NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cooler air with clouds and precip will make for an unpleasant Mon morning into early Mon afternoon across the region. Highs on Mon will mainly be in the low to mid 50s (some upper 50s over extreme SE VA and NE NC). Drying out Mon night, as the center of high pressure builds SE thru the Great Lakes into the nrn OH Valley. Mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to the mid 40s. The high will build eastward and into the NE U.S. Tue through Tue night, with the ridge axis extending down into the Mid Atlc region. Generally partly sunny on Tue, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. The surface ridge remains in place into Wed as the high passes from the Great lakes to off New England. Continues cool Wednesday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s inland and upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Temps may warm some on Wed based in increasing thicknesses into the mid to upper 50s with near 60 at the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will be over the region on Wed, then slide off the coast Wed night. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week as the high pushes offshore and temps warm into the low to mid 60s. Another cold front approaches from the NW Friday once again moderating temps pushing lows back into the 30s Thursday night with highs Friday in the mid 50s. Do not expect any precip with the front Thursday night, just a few clouds. The next significant weather maker looks to push into the region Fri night into Sat. Models differ on the exact timing, but trends have been wetter in the long range guidance. Strong return flow Saturday sets up ahead of a sharp cold front. Model timing differs by almost 18 hours, but blending the guidance suggests increase shower chances Saturday and perhaps into Saturday night. Cannot rule out some thunder given the intensity of this system. Expect a sharp return to colder temps next late next weekend behind the front. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high off the New England coast is ridging southwest into the mid Atlantic this afternoon as mid and high clouds increase from the west ahead of the approaching system. A trough of low pressure over the Ohio RIver Valley will approach the area tonight, then swing across the region and off the coast Mon into Mon evening. Expect VFR conditions to persist at all TAF sites through this afternoon and early evening, but with increasing mid level clouds. Moisture will surge in from the southwest between 03z to 06z overrunning the cool air at the surface. This will result in MVFR/IFR conditions likely at all TAF sites from very late tonight into Mon aftn. IFR conditions at most TAF sites will likely persist through the early morning hours Monday into early afternoon as a result of rain and low clouds. Conditions look to improve form west to east late Monday afternoon into Monday night. OUTLOOK...High pressure and VFR conditions will return for Mon night thru Wed. && .MARINE...
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Latest sfc analysis shows ~1034 mb high pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes with ~1023 mb low pressure over the OH Valley. The low and a weak associated frontal boundary will approach the Mid Atlc tonight and cross the waters Mon morning. Light winds tonight (aob 10 kt) increase to 10-15 kt out of the North Mon morning behind the front, then up to 15-20 kt Mon aftn over the ocean where seas will increase up to 4 ft out 20 nm. Have hoisted a SCA over southern coastal waters where confidence is highest for 5 ft seas by Mon night/Tue. SCA conditions psbl over the northern coastal waters as well but will hold off on any headlines there for now with this being late 3rd/4th period and confidence not as high. Some gusts up to 20 kt psbl over the southern Bay as well Mon night/Tue. High pressure returns Tue and Wed, before another front crosses the area by Thu.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG/JAO NEAR TERM...TMG/JAO SHORT TERM...TMG/JAO LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...TMG/JAO MARINE...MAS

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