Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221841 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 241 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to weaken as it lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand into the Mid-Atlantic. Hurricane Maria is forecast to move northward between the offshore Atlantic waters and Bermuda through the early part of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to spin just off the coast of SE New England. A spoke of moisture rotating around the west side of Jose has been responsible for a little extra cloud cover around the local area today. However, this has not stopped temps from reaching the mid 80s in most places with moderate humidity levels. Expecting another warm evening with clouds gradually diminishing overnight. Have inserted patchy fog into some of the usual locations for early Saturday morning. Lows tonight in the 60s to around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our weather pattern over the weekend, as PTC Jose weakens and shifts a bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with NNE flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures. Will have to keep and eye on Hurricane Maria which will be moving north off the SE coast by Sunday and Monday. Right now Maria is expected to take a course similar to Jose, keeping it well offshore. Highs Sat-Mon will generally be in the mid 80s, except upper 70s at the beaches. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to upper 60s near the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Hi pres sfc-aloft continues to weaken invof NE CONUS Mon night into Tue. Meanwhile...Tropical cyclone Maria is expected to track to (well?) E of the coastal Carolinas. Wx conditions Tue- Thu remain dependent on the track of Tropical Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to the E would result in drier-continued warm wx. For now...generally going w/ partly cloudy w/ low PoPs (E portions). Monitor forecasts from the National Hurricane Center on Maria through the weekend. A cold front is forecast to arrive late next week (late Thu-Thu night)...resulting in cooler wx and possibly higher PoPs. Highs Tue in the u70s-l80s...Wed u70s-mid 80s...l-m80s Thu...in the 70s Fri. Lows Mon-Wed nights mainly 65 to 70F...then Thu night from the m50s NW to the m60s SE.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will promote VFR conditions and mostly light wind through the TAF forecast period. Mid/high clouds will tend to disspiate into this evening. Patchy fog may develop early Saturday morning. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions, with the exception of patchy morning fog, are anticipated through early next week due to the influence of high pressure over the region.
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&& .MARINE... Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose remains centered SE of Cape Cod early this morning and is forecast to remain nearly stationary through Saturday morning...before gradually pushing ewd through Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located NNE of the Turks and Caicos this afternoon and is forecast to track to the NNW through Sat and then on a N track through Wed to about equidistant from the Carolina coast and Bermuda. Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas generally 3-6 ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall at times below 5 ft over the next few days. However...the SCA for hazardous seas will continue...and will be extended to 22z Sun as energetic ENE swell will continue. Swell arrives from Maria most likely beginning late this weekend and continuing into next week. SCAs for seas will likely be needed into early next week. The bulk of the forecast guidance keeps Maria offshore during the early to middle portions of next week. Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Maria. A further increase in seas is expected Monday through Wednesday along with an increasing N wind Tue-Thu. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels expected to remain elevated at all sites through the weekend...but given that the swell is not as large as what it has been...they should stay just below flood. Will need to watch for additional flooding next week...especially in the bay...as the swell from Maria moves into the area. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues through Sat as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB/JDM MARINE...AJZ/ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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