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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
123 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions continue into Saturday. A substantial warming
trend is expected Sunday into early next week with high pressure
building in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 845 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Remaining breezy overnight with cooler lows in the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

2) Showers decrease, but a few showers possible this evening
over NE NC and after midnight over the MD eastern shore.

Early evening analysis showing a slowly filling upper low over
the interior northeast, with lead upper shortwave currently
pushing offshore of the coastal Carolinas. Clouds have
diminished over the past 90 minutes with showers decreasing
substantially over the local area. Could see a rogue shower or
storm along the Albemarle/Currituck Sounds this evening and late
tonight toward morning over the MD eastern shore as the upper
low lifts northeast. Remaining breezy overnight with overnight
lows mainly in the upper 40s well inland, low to mid 50s from
I-95 east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

The upper trough will begin to lift away from the region on Saturday
but the surface gradient will remain steep with continued gusty W
winds. Drying aloft will result in mostly clear skies over much of
the region with just a few/scattered clouds across the MD Eastern
Shore and vicinity. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to low
70s inland with low to mid 60s over the Eastern Shore. Lows Saturday
night fall into the low and mid 40s with light winds.

Warming trend gets underway on Sunday as surface high pressure sets
up off the GA/FL Atlantic coast, bringing SW flow into the area.
Highs climb into the upper 70s/low 80s for most of the area but the
Eastern Shore remains in the low 70s with flow off the bay. Not as
cold Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warmer still
and remaining dry on Monday with highs in the 70s near the water
with lower/mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through the extended
forecast period. A weakening front will dip southward into the
region Monday night but guidance is not showing much (if any) precip
with this boundary. This front is forecast to lift back northward on
Tuesday as low level flow becomes southerly ahead of low pressure
lifting into the Midwest from the Plains. Low level thicknesses
increase Tues-Thurs with 850 temps around 15 C, resulting in
afternoon high temps in the low to mid 80s away from the water
Tuesday. Slightly cooler, around 80 degrees, Wednesday with more
clouds in the area and a slight chance of showers across the
northern half of the region. The warmest day of the forecast looks
to arrive on Thursday with inland temps in the mid to upper 80s and
upper 70s to low 80s at the coast. The cold front moves toward the
area Friday with a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Not quite as warm but afternoon highs still in the upper 70s to low
80s. Overnight temps will be mild as well with lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 125 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR expected through the period. Mainly SCT clouds with bases
~10k ft AGL across the area early this morning. SKC is noted at
ORF/ECG/PHF. Similar conditions continue through 12z, with
clouds perhaps thickening to BKN-OVC at SBY. Any clouds clear by
later this morning/early aftn (lingering at SBY the longest).
Winds as of 6z are 10-15 kt. Winds then become gusty again after
sunrise into this aftn with gusts to around 30 kt possible.
Winds finally subside this evening/early tonight to 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Dry/mainly VFR for Sunday into early next week with
lighter winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

Latest obs shows WSW winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and
seas 5-8 ft N and 5-7 ft S, with 2-4 ft waves in the Bay and
2-3 ft in the rivers. Winds remain gusty through Saturday aftn
w/ SCAs continuing for all the waters. Deep mixing will diminish
towards sunset with winds dropping off (possibly to below SCA
thresholds in the Bay/rivers/sound for awhile this evening).
Another surge in winds is expected along and behind as secondary
cold front later tonight, with winds becoming W 20-25 kt (with
gusts to around 30 kt) into early Sat afternoon. A similar setup
to Fri afternoon is expected Sat afternoon with the gustiest
winds over the tidal rivers, but winds will tend to drop off a
little earlier and will further diminish Sat night.

Sub-SCA winds return Saturday night through most of Sunday as
high pressure settles over the southeast CONUS. SW winds may
then briefly increase again to near SCA thresholds Sun night
into Mon morning ahead of the next front. That front is
forecast to drop through the area Monday, with winds turning to
the NE and then to the E-SE Monday night into Tuesday (generally
staying sub-SCA through this timeframe).

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1250 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages/Headline Summary:

1) The Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended until 7 AM for
Currituck Co. NC and Va Beach for soundside flooding. All other
coastal flood headlines have expired.

Gusty W-WSW winds continue across the region. Tidal departures
have fallen significantly across the upper bay/ocean. However,
water levels remain above minor flood thresholds in/near the
Back Bay area of VA Beach and have been relatively steady over
the past few hours. These should slowly fall today, but have
extended the Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM for now (and can`t
rule out further extensions today).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NCZ017-
     102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...