Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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879 FXUS61 KAKQ 070620 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 120 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SFC HIGH WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH WAS BECOMING SHARPER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW WAS STARTING TO DEEPEN OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SC AND THIS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC. MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH INTO NC BUT THEN SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER SFC HIGH OVER EASTERN VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS DURING THE PRE AND POST DAWN HOURS. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE RAIN IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN TEMPS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN DRY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VA SO WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES INLAND STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER20S INLAND AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MID 30S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHTS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST (ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIDEWATER AND SOME AS FAR WEST AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND. THAT SAID THE NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A 50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK (EITHER DIRECTION) WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFERENT SCENARIO. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS TEMPS 45-50 COOLEST ALONG THE COASTAL AND WARMEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. LTST DATA SUPPORTS ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMULATION). OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS. 12Z DATA SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON 45-50. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC-SBY LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE... THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT (HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO SHORT TERM...MPR/JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JDM/TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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