Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181742 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 142 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WK SFC HI PRES LOCATED OVR THE FA ATTM...PROVIDING DRY/COMFY WX. MNLY SKC E...PCLDY W...W/ MOST SFC DEWPTS FM THE U50S TO L60S. VERY WK MID LVL TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE W...CROSSING THE RGN THIS AFTN...W/ MINIMAL FORCING/DYNAMICS. STRONG CAP INVOF 800MB AS WELL...SO XPCG MNLY PATCHY MID LVL CLDNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED SLGT CHC POPS FOR AREAS WELL W OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO ARND 80F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRNT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. MAINLY DRY...XCPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EARLY. LOWS M50S-L60S. TSCTNS CONT TO SHOW SOME MID & UPR LVL MSTR ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH A E-NE WND. DRY AS MODELS DON`T SPRT ANY PCPN. HIGHS M-U70S. LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S. DATA SHOWING MSTR INCRG A BIT ALONG SERN COASTAL SCTNS SAT AS A WEAK TROF PROGGED TO ROTATE WEST AND APPRCH THE COAST SAT MORNING. THIS CUD BE ENUF OF A TRIGGER FOR SOME LGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW THAT THIS OCCURS...SO KEPT ISLTD POPS ALONG THE SERN CSTL AREAS FOR NOW. TMPS MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS. HIGHS U70S-L80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGS CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS KRIC AND KSBY. THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE CIGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET. AFTER THE TROF MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL DEVELOP A STEADY EAST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KTS FOR KECG AND KORF STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH WIND OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED STRATACU AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET. IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE... NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU FRIDAY. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM/JAB MARINE...JDM

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