Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 182047 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 447 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the local area through this evening. Low pressure develops near the coast late tonight into Sunday morning...then slowly moves well off the coast Sunday afternoon. High pressure returns late Sunday into Monday. The next cold front settles into the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Strong upper level low pressure will be tracking SE from the Great Lakes states tonight. A sfc cold front approaches the Piedmont early this evening...then continues E overnight. SHRAS exiting the mountains attm...and will be entering wrn and central areas of FA through sunset. Will have 40-60% PoPs) as vertical ascent is aided by cooling aloft (w/ upper level trough sharpening into the ern CONUS). Rather steep mid level lapse rates...keeping a SLGT CHC thunder for interior ern/central/south central VA and far interior NE NC until about 03Z/19. Will mention brief gusty winds and small hail as possible threats from any storms in HWO. After midnight...shifting highest PoPs to mainly the ern portions of the FA. Colder air will be slowly spreading into the FA by late at night...potentially leading to mixed RASH/SNSH...mainly nrn areas. Lows from the u30s NW to the l40s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper low will be slow to exit the coast through later Sun aftn. Holding onto 30-60% PoPs from I 95 on E to coast through midday...before diminishing NW-SE in the aftn. Once again...thermal profile may be cold enough to support a mix of ra/sn despite relatively warmer surface temperatures. Otherwise...cooler with a gusty (up to 35-45mph along the immediate coast, with 25-40mph farther inland) NNW wind. Mostly cloudy to overcast along the coast...w/ decreasing clouds W. Highs will be tricky...dependent on the timing/amount of clearing...ranging from the m-u40s along the coast to the l50s in the I 95 corridor...to the m-u50s over the Piedmont. Dry conditions prevail Sun night into Mon as sfc hi pres builds across the local area. A NW wind will be slow to subside... esp through Mon morning along the coast. Mainly clear Sun night into Mon morning...then increasing clouds Mon aftn (esp nrn portions of the FA). Lows Sun night from 30-35F inland...to the m-u30s for SE VA/NE NC. Milder Mon with highs in the l-m50s along the coast to the l60s farther inland (Piedmont). Sfc hi pres dissipates Mon night as clouds continue to spread into the region from the W. Carrying a low prob for SHRAS far N. Lows mainly 40-45F. A cold front drops SE into the area Tue...bring mainly cloudy conditions. As the front settles into srn VA in the afternoon...increased PoPs (to 20-40%) by late in the day. Highs from the m-u50s on the ern shore to around 60F near the Ches Bay...and 65-70F farther inland across central/srn VA-interior NE NC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Showers expected Tue night into Wed morning, as low pressure along the frontal boundary moves acrs the Carolinas and off the coast. Dry wx and cool temps will follow for Wed aftn into Thu night, as high pressure builds SE fm the Great Lakes to off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Increasingly warmer temps then expected Fri and Sat, but also a gradual increase in low level moisture and pcpn chcs. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Wed, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu, in the upper 50s to lower 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, in the mid 20s to lower 30s Wed night, in the 30s Thu night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 Fri night.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. The front will bring rain and the chance for a few thunderstorms to the region. Expect cloud ceilings to reduce to MVFR/IFR conditions this evening and tonight with the preciptation. The wind will be mainly from the southwest through today at 8-12kt and gradually shift to WNW later this afternoon/evening, then N later tonight with gusts 25-30kt possible. Thunder is possible at RIC later today...and could develop over Hampton Roads this evening. Rain tonight for eastern portions may change to light snow before ending Sunday morning. Dry and VFR conditions are expected for most of Sunday into Monday night. There will be a chance for showers with reduced aviation conditions Tuesday. Dry weather returns Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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Late this aftn, low pressure was cntrd over SW VA with a cold front extending SW thru wrn NC and into nrn GA. A warm front was laying off the MD coast. Winds were ENE over MD coastal waters at 5 to 10 kt, and SE thru SW at 5 to 10 kt elsewhere. Seas were 2-3 feet and waves 1-2 feet. The low will move ewrd acrs srn portions of the area this evening into tonight, with another low forming along the warm front off the Delmarva coast and taking over as the main low. All of this will pull a cold front acrs the waters. The main low will deepen off the New England coast late tonight into Sun aftn. As the low deepens, strong cold air advection and increasing low level winds result in a period of Gale conditions over the bay, sound, and coastal waters very late tonight through Sun aftn. Expect north winds late tonight to increase to 25 to 30 knots on the bay to 30 to 35 knots over the coastal waters. Gusts 35-40 knots in the bay and 40-45 knots coastal waters. Seas build to 6-9 feet Sun and waves 4-6 feet. Gale conditions subside in the bay Sun aftn, as the low lifts farther northeast and gradient winds diminish. Gale conditions then subside north to south over the coastal waters Sun aftn. Seas subside to 4-7 feet late Sun. SCA conditions persist through Sun evening ahead of high pressure building over the waters late Sun night into Mon. Seas subside below 5 feet by Mon evening. High pressure slides off the Southeast coast Mon night, as flow becomes southwest. The next front crosses the waters on Tue.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...TMG

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