Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171802 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 202 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Carolinas will settle just off the southeast coast through tonight. The High will slide south of the area through midweek...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area through the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis centers ~1020 high pressure over the Carolinas. A stationary front stretching east to west across the Great Lakes into the Northeast has induced pressure falls along the lee side of the Appalachians, resulting in weak lee side troughing over the Piedmont. Aloft, upper level ridging continues to build east from to build east from northern Mexico/Texas across the deep south. A shortwave pushing off the New Jersey coast this morning has produced some cloudiness along the surface trough north of the region. Surface high to the south will continue to push SE to a position offshore of the Southeast coast by this evening. Return flow will accelerate ongoing warming trend across the local area. Latest LAV trends push temperatures into the mid 80`s across the Piedmont into central Virginia. This matches will with the highest low level thicknesses. Have bumped temps up a deg or two, with highs generally in the low to mid 80`s (8-10 degrees above normal). Cooler along the coast. Weak upper level disturbance drops across the northeast half of the forecast area this afternoon, which could help produce some afternoon mid level clouds across the region. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions expected. Mainly clear and mild conditions through this evening. Another night with patchy low clouds/fog possible late. Lows generally in the low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong/anomalous upper level ridge builds ENE across the deep south and into the Carolinas through midweek. Meanwhile, Sfc high pressure builds just offshore of the SE coast. Return (SW) flow/building heights aloft will promote continued warming trend Tue-Wed, with high temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above avg. remaining dry throughout, w/highs Tue/Wed will avg in the lower to mid 80s (with GEFS plumes and thickness tools indicating the potential for some upper 80s out west on Wed). Some record highs could be challenged (see Climate Section for details). Early morning lows in the upper 50s to lower-mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, again with some patchy fog/stratus possible each morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Anomalous upper level trough deepens over the central CONUS Thursday, with an associated cold front locating over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a weakness under the western Atlantic ridge progged to lift northward late in the day Thursday, with an associated surface low location well offshore of the Southeast coast. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the local area Thursday, with 850mb temps still around +14-16C (+1 standard deviation). The result will be another day of well above normal temperatures, with highs generally in the upper 70`s to low 80`s. While spatial and timing differences remain with respect to the cold front and offshore low pressure system, expect the front to cross the central Appalachians late Thursday night, dropping into the local area Friday. Guidance in better agreement with the offshore low, lifting it northward Friday and keeping it offshore. The strengthening pressure gradient could produce gusty north to northeast winds along the coast late Friday and Friday night. 1000- 500mb relative humidity decreases as the front reaches the local area, with the best moisture located along the coast and offshore. Will keep mention of slight chance to chance POP`s Thursday night, ramping up to solid chance POP`s Friday as strong upper level dynamics will likely overcome limited moisture. Could be a large spread of daytime temperatures Friday, with highs expected to range from the mid/upper 60`s northwest to mid(possibly upper) 70`s southeast. Sticking with the slightly quicker ECWMF solution, the front pushes offshore Friday night. Will keep low end chance POP`s for the northeast half of the forecast area Saturday to account for the uncertainty. Cooler Saturday with highs generally in the mid 60`s with a northwest wind. Dry Sunday as high pressure builds across the Southeast. Highs generally in the mid to upper 60`s, after morning temperatures in the 40`s to low 50`s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 17z...High pressure over the Mid Atlantic States will drift slowly to the south during the TAF period. Light and variable mostly south winds will become southwesterly by Monday. The sky will be mainly clear with just a few cumulus this afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible again Monday morning but with less of an onshore flow as opposed to this morning...IFR conditions are expected to be less prevalent than it was this morning. It is most likely to occur across south central and southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina. Have included a few hours of MVFR fog around sunrise at all sites except ORF. OUTLOOK...Dry weather/VFR conditions are expected to persist through Thursday. The next chance for showers arrives Friday as a cold front passes and moisture increases due to an inverted trough off the Carolina coast. There may be patchy fog around sunrise on most mornings.
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&& .MARINE... Sfc high pressure will reside over the Carolinas through Tue... resulting in S-SW winds aob 10kt today through Tue morning and seas 2-4ft/waves 1-2ft. Meanwhile, a sfc low pushing through the Upper Great Lakes Mon night and across SE Canada Tue/Tue night will briefly tighten the sfc pressure gradient over the waters Tue aftn/night. S-SW winds will average 10-15kt all waters during this timeframe. High pressure briefly rebounds over the Carolinas Wed through Thu as an upper trough/sfc cold front approaches the Mid Atlantic Region from the west. Winds will remain sly around 10kt with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. The cold front is expected to cross the waters on Fri as a coastal low deepens well off of Cape Hatteras. The cold front should keep the low out to sea, however an increase in NW winds due to decent cold air advection and also an increase in seas/swell from the nearby low should be anticipated Fri through at least Sat evening. Best chance for SCA conditions for Bay/Sound/Mouth of James River (NW 15-20kt/waves 2-4ft) will be Fri evening into Sat morning...and through Sun morning for the coastal waters (NW 15-25kt/seas 3-5ft). Winds/seas diminish Sun as high pressure builds into the area from the SW and cold air advection wanes. Winds generally SW-W aob 15kt with seas becoming 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Equipment issue... Astronomical tide information is not ingesting properly and has resulted in missing data within the experimental total water level hydrographs beyond 00Z Tuesday. Estimated return to service is Monday or Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Very warm conditions this week with the possibility of challenging some records listed below: * Record Highs * Today (10/17) Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 86 (1925) 88 (1938) 87 (1938) 89 (1984) * ORF 87 (1925) 86 (2011) 87 (2007) 87 (1984) * SBY 87 (1908) 86 (1908) 84 (1938) 84 (1984) * Record high Mins: * Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 67 (1980) 73 (2007) 68 (1916) * ORF 68 (1980) 73 (2007) 70 (1916) * SBY 70 (1975) 71 (2007) 68 (1916) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD/SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.