Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150935 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 435 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OF WV/VA WILL MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE AND OCCASIONALLY AREAS ADJACENT TO WRN CHES BAY (MAINLY FROM YORKTOWN NWD). THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY. THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO LIFT/BREAK-UP LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64...IMMEDIATE BEACHES...AND THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY OVER THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT/BREAK-UP THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS BECOME SLY. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL START OUT CLEAR... HOWEVER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE INCOMING CLOUDS WILL END UP HOLDING TEMPS STEADY CLOSER TO TUE MORNING...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SHOULD BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S (INCLUDING THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND BEACHES). SE VA AND NE NC WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND EXPERIENCE BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LIKELY GETTING HUNG UP ON THE MTNS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THERE IS A RIBBON OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WRN AREAS BY TUE MORNING. INITIALLY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR RAIN TO PUSH FURTHER EWD BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS TAKING LONGER FOR THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND SUPPORT RAIN AT THE SFC. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR THAT TO HAPPEN AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. PWATS INCREASING TWD 1.00 INCH IN THE AFTN WILL ALSO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND COME TO AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THICKENING CLOUD COVER...INCOMING PRECIPITATION...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...AND ESPECIALLY/HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GENERAL TREND IS TO KEEP FAR W/NW AREAS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND THE SERN PORTION OF THE FA IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BE A CHALLENGE AS SKIES CLEAR BUT WEST WINDS STAY JUST BREEZY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH POCKETS IN THE UPPER 30S FAR NW AREAS. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW/BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE POST COLD FROPA ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD DAY IN THE WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF 30-35 FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID 30S AT THE BEACHES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS MAINLY NW FLO AND HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. A LO PRES AREA WILL THEN TRACK FM THE LWR MS VALLEY ENE AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST FRI NGT THRU SUN MORNG. AT THIS TIME...THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHC OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SUN MORNG. THE PCPN COULD END AS A LITTLE SNOW AS THE STORM EXITS OFF THE CST. THE STORM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE DURING SUN...WITH DRIER NW FLO RETURNING TO THE REGION. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO ARND 50 THU AND FRI...RANGE FM THE LWR 40S TO ARND 50 SAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 40S SUN. LO TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 30S SAT AND SUN MORNGS. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BKN-OVC CIGS AVGG 3KFT INVOF ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK/MID PENINSULA VA ATTM. NAM GUID MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC W/ CLDNS OVR MUCH OF THE FA TDA...HAVE CONFINED BULK OF THE CIGS TO E OF I 95 TDA...ESP OVR THE ERN SHORE/VICINITY KSBY. GENLY VFR CONDS CONT TNGT INTO TUE AS HI PRES DRIFTS OVR THE RGN. CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUES AFTN W/ PSBL MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRAS. CLEARING OUT/BREEZY W WNDS TUE NGT INTO WED W/ MNLY VFR CONDS. && .MARINE... LO PRES E OF NEW ENG WILL RMN SLO TO MOVE E THROUGH TODAY...WHILE HI PRES SFC-ALOFT FM THE W CONTS TO DRIFT OVR THE WTRS (INTO TNGT). MNLY NNW WNDS WILL RMN OVR THE WTRS INTO THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG MNLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE HI SLIDES OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. WNDS BECOMING SSW (BY) TNGT...CONTG INTO TUE (SPEEDS RMNG BLO 15 KT). A CDFNT WILL CROSS THE WTRS LATE TUE. INCRSD SSW WNDS TO 10 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF FNT DEVELOPING TUE. WNDS BECOME WSW TUE NGT BEHIND THE FNT...SPEEDS AVGG 10 TO 20 KT...THEN MNLY W WNDS WED...BECOMING NW BY THU. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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