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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY TO DRIFT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONSIDERABLE CLDNS CONTS TO COVER THE FA...ESP CNTRL AND ERN
PORTION THIS EVE. BULK OF SHRA ARE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION W/
WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING NE. LITTLE OR NO FORCING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD PCPN OVRNGT ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES. SFC HI PRES
RMNS INVOF NEW ENGLAND...W/ WK SFC TROUGH OFF THE CST...AND
ANOTHER TROUGH LINGERING INVOF MTNS. XPCG A MCLDY NIGHT...A LTL
HIGHER DEWPT THAN PAST COUPLE...POPS MNLY AOB 20%. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS NEW ENG THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE
LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS
ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES
TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO E OF NEW ENG...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND
E OF THE CAROLINA CST.

DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ A CONTD/GRADUAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN
AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.

HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO L80S...THEN IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S
TUE. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
AROUND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WED/THURS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TSTM
CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...ANY PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREA
CLOSET TO THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS WED/THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS
FRI/SAT IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OFF THE MID ATLC CST TODAY
INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE WASHING OUT. WEAK HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST NE
OR E FLO ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES...BUT ISLTD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THRU MON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE RIVERS/CHES
BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND...WHILE SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3 TO 4 FT. THAT
BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OFF THE MID
ATLC/SE COASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE THRU WED. WINDS WILL TURN FM
THE SE TO THE SW DURING THIS TIME WHILE REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM