-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
386
FXUS61 KAKQ 260053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
853 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very hot
conditions to the region through the week. Low- end chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return from mid week into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 850 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Extreme Heat Warnings have been allowed to expire.

- A few isolated storms are possible into this evening with
  damaging winds the primary threat.

Temps as of 830 PM ranged from the mid to upper 80s across most
of the area with localized upper 70s across areas which received
rain earlier this afternoon. The Extreme Heat Warning has been
allowed to expire. However, hot and humid conditions remain
across the area with heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s
were common. Lows tonight are expected to be a couple degrees
cooler than last night with temps in the mid 70s for most (low-
mid 70s across the Piedmont and upper 70s to around 80F along
the coast). Otherwise, a few isolated storms will continue to be
possible this evening, gradually tapering off overnight with
the loss of daytime heating. However, given the unstable air
mass in place and high DCAPE of 1100-1600 J/kg, damaging winds
due to downbursts will continue to be possible with any stronger
storms. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) across
the entire forecast area. That being said, the severe threat
should continue to diminish overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisories in effect for everywhere but the Eastern Shore
  on Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop on Thursday and Friday
afternoons, with more coverage than previous days. A few storms
could be strong to severe.

As the upper ridge continues to gradually weaken Thursday,
temperatures "cool" by a couple of degrees with highs largely in the
mid 90s with locally cooler (upper 80s-low 90s) temps on the Eastern
Shore and right near the coast. Heat indices likely will not be
quite as high tomorrow either. Max Heat Indices look to be on either
side of 105F for most of the area, slightly lower on the Eastern
Shore. Did go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for everywhere but the
Eastern Shore for tomorrow. Scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are expected, with even higher coverage compared to
today as a frontal boundary drops closer to the local area (highest
coverage NW). Similar to Wednesday, a few storms again have the
potential to be strong to severe and produce damaging wind gusts due
to continued high instability over the region. SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well, with WPC
placing all but the southeast in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall. Lows Thursday night in the low to mid 70s are expected.

By Friday, expect the boundary that will be lingering to our north
to slip into far northeastern portions of the area in a backdoor
fashion. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures,
especially across the Eastern Shore and northern portions of the
areas where highs stay in the 80s. Elsewhere, highs will generally
be in the lower 90s with heat indices of 95-103F. Scattered to
potentially more numerous showers/storms across the NW develop
Friday afternoon, with Friday likely having the most activity of the
week. Similar to the past couple of days, strong wind gusts or
locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week.

- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for
scattered storms.

The front that dropped into northeastern portions of the area Friday
lifts back to the north on Saturday. The upper ridge remains with us
through the weekend and into early next week, though not as strong
as what we saw earlier this week. Temperatures will remain above
average throughout the period with highs generally in the low to mid
90s. Max heat index values will range from the upper 90s to just
over 100 this weekend into early next weekend. Heat Advisories may
be needed for a few spots (primarily E) as the forecast is fine
tuned. Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be common
throughout the period, with the best coverage each day across the
NW. PWATs increase to 2.0"+ for much of the area later this weekend
into early next week, which will result in a heavy rain threat.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z taf period outside of
convection. FEW-SCT CU associated with isolated storms this
evening will continue to be possible. However, it appears that
storms should remain away from the local terminals. As such,
have kept out mention of storms through this evening. FEW-SCT
stratus and/or cirrus will continue to be possible overnight
into early Thu morning before skies clear. Additionally, some
patchy fog is possible inland with the best chance across the
Piedmont and interior SE VA/NE NC where rain fell this
afternoon. Cannot rule out some patchy fog at the terminals, but
confidence was too low to add reduced VIS to the tafs. SCT CU
(5000-6000 ft CIGs) are expected to develop Thu afternoon with
scattered storms developing across the region. Have added a
PROB30 to the RIC and SBY tafs due to higher confidence in
storms impacting those terminals. Any storms taper off by Thu
evening.

Outlook: Generally prevailing VFR conditions are favored
through the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure
remains over the region outside of convection. However, late
afternoon/evening storms are possible every day into early next
week as the upper level ridge gradually weakens.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through the end of the week.

Favorable marine conditions will continue through the weekend as
high pressure remains dominant across the region. The wind direction
will be influenced by the sea breeze during the day as the land
heats up, then will become generally variable overnight. As the high
shifts offshore through the end of the week and into the weekend,
the synoptic winds become predominantly southerly areawide. Sea
breezes may still make an appearance near the shore in the afternoon
hours, which would shift the wind to the E or SE. A few wind gusts
to 20-25 kt are possible by the weekend or early next week, but
predictability is low at this range given the effects of potential
convection. Isolated to scattered storms are also possible in the
afternoons and evenings today through the weekend, which could bring
strong wind gusts to the waters, with winds and seas higher within
any convection.

Seas in the Ocean remain around 2 ft for the week, increasing to 2-3
ft by Friday. Waves in the Bay and rivers of 1-2 ft or less through
the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Wed 6/25:

*Record high tied Tue 6/24 at SBY
*Record high set Wed 6/25 at SBY at 100F

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-25   100(1952)    100(1952)   99(1914)   100(1952)

 Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Wed 6/25:

*For 6/24 SBY and ECG set record high minimum temperatures and
 RIC and ORF tied their record high minimum temperatures.

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-25   76(1921)     79(1880)   75(1909)    76(1949)
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AC/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/AC
LONG TERM...AJB/AC
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...SW/NB
CLIMATE...