Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 212118
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
418 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017
High pressure pushes farther off the New England coast tonight.
Low pressure tracks east across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
Florida Peninsula Wednesday through Friday. A strong cold front
crosses the local area Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak cold front washing out as it
crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, strong low pressure
it situated over the lower MS Valley. As these two features
continue to push east tonight, we will see clouds continue to
thicken creating mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Any shower
activity will stay west of the local area thru 6 AM. Lows in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The strong upper low is expected to pass over the eastern GOMEX
on Wednesday, then cross the southern FL Peninsula Wednesday
night into Thursday morning before pushing east of the Bahamas
late Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will linger off the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. A weak shortwave approaches
the area from the west Wednesday morning then settles SE of the
area in the afternoon. Although forcing will be weak, BUFKIT
soundings for KRIC show sufficient moisture present (thru at
least 700 mb) for some light rain during Wednesday, especially
across the Piedmont (spreading east to the Bay in the afternoon).
Have highest pops 40-50% west of I-95 thru the day. QPF amounts
will generally be less than a tenth of an inch or so. Continued
mild Wednesday despite mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the low-
mid 60s...to near 70 over interior NE NC.
Plenty of moisture at different levels to keep sky conditions
partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night, but little if any
support for pcpn. Lows from the upr 40s north to low 50s south.
Increasing WSW develops Thurs due to the position of the low off the
FL coast and a deepening trough over the northern
Plains/Midwest. Models indicating enough moisture present for
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers.
Warmer with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s near the water, low
to mid 70s west of the Ches Bay. Lows Thursday night mainly
By Friday, southerly flow is expected with building heights
along the East Coast. Meanwhile, potent low pressure continues
to deepen over the upper Midwest. Low level thickness values
support max temps reaching the low/mid 70s many locations
(cooler immediate coast). Will probably end up below record
highs Friday with winds expected be more S-SE as opposed to WSW.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Pattern begins with strong/anomalous upper ridge along the east
coast with a deep upper low over the upper midwest. Temperatures
will continue to be well above normal Fri night into Sat, with
lows in the 50s to around 60 F and highs Sat mainly in the 70s.
The guidance remains in decent agreement for a swath of
moisture and marginal dynamics with the fropa on Sat, but with
the upper trough already taking on a negative tilt so far W of
the Appalachians, still could see a scenario where precip
struggles to hold together as the front moves east of the Mtns
(particularly over southern Va and northeast NC). Will maintain
chance pops (30-50%) shwrs/ aftn tstms Sat with low end likely
pops across the far N. Behind the front, temperatures will
return close to normal for Sunday with highs in the 50s under a
breezy WNW flow and sunny skies. GFS/ECWMF differ slightly
beyond that, but overall indicate high pressure building across
the SE CONUS with a return SW flow developing for Mon-Tue as yet
another low pressure system moves from the upper midwest to the
upper Great Lakes. Dry Mon, with a 20-30% PoP across the N for
Tue. Temperatures should trend up once again with highs back
into the 60s most areas Mon and approaching 70 F by Tue aftn for
highs across the southern 1/2 of the area. Lows will avg in the
30s to lower 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions through most of the 18Z TAF period as sfc
hi pres moves off the New England coast. Winds become SE
tonight...though remain light...usually a precursor to at least
patchy fog and/or ST development late at night/early in the
morning. Models not quite that impressed w/ lowering CIGS and/or
VSBYS to low from about 09Z-13Z/22...but have included light fog
in most TAFs...and bkn CIGS lowering to abt 2kft invof RIC. Broad
area of sfc lo pres over the Lower MS Valley will drift to the
E into FL Wed. Moisture will increase from the S...w/ ISOLD/SCT
RASH expected. Complex frontal system will affect the area late
in the week with small chances for showers Thu and Thu night. A
strong cold front passes through the Mid Atlantic States
Saturday a lo probability for RASH/tstms.
-- Changed Discussion --Sub-SCA conditions continue for the next several days with sfc
high pres centered offshore of the NE/mid-Atlc coast tonight.
Winds will be easterly aob 10 kt with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay
and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. The high remains offshore into
Wed with southerly winds aob 10 kt. S/SW winds to avg 10-15 KT
(or less) then persists until at least Fri ahead of the next
cold front. However, with strong low pressure over Florida Thu
pushing off the southeast coast Fri, latest Wavewatch indicating
some increasing long period swell moving up to the local
coastal waters for Fri-Sat with seas building to 4-6 ft which
would lead to SCA headlines along the coast. Then, with some
modest cold air behind the cold front on Sat, should see SCA
conditions for much of the area Sat night through Sun morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record
given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs
are listed below, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record
listed below that. Expecting RIC and ORF to be at least into the
top 3 warmest (and possibly the warmest).
Daily Record Highs for Thursday 2/23 and Friday 2/24:
RIC 75 in 1985 82 in 1985
ORF 79 in 1975 82 in 2012
SBY 74 in 1943 77 in 2012
ECG 77 in 1975 79 in 1985
Warmest February`s on record:
1) 49.9 (1890)
2) 48.5 (1976)
3) 48.1 (1884)
1) 52.4 (1890)
2) 50.5 (1909)
3) 50.1 (1990)