Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200533 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 133 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY TO DRIFT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CONSIDERABLE CLDNS CONTS TO COVER THE FA...ESP CNTRL AND ERN PORTION THIS EVE. BULK OF SHRA ARE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION W/ WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING NE. LITTLE OR NO FORCING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN OVRNGT ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES. SFC HI PRES RMNS INVOF NEW ENGLAND...W/ WK SFC TROUGH OFF THE CST...AND ANOTHER TROUGH LINGERING INVOF MTNS. XPCG A MCLDY NIGHT...A LTL HIGHER DEWPT THAN PAST COUPLE...POPS MNLY AOB 20%. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK. ONE PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS NEW ENG THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO E OF NEW ENG...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST. DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE PD...W/ A CONTD/GRADUAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO L80S...THEN IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM THE 60S TO L70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AROUND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WED/THURS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TSTM CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ANY PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREA CLOSET TO THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH THRU NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS WED/THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OFF THE MID ATLC CST TODAY INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE WASHING OUT. WEAK HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST NE OR E FLO ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES...BUT ISLTD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW. && .MARINE... INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THRU MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE RIVERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND...WHILE SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3 TO 4 FT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLC/SE COASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE THRU WED. WINDS WILL TURN FM THE SE TO THE SW DURING THIS TIME WHILE REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JDM

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