Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 131136 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 636 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Markedly colder air spreads across the region through this evening, with temperatures moderating for late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest weather analysis reveals sfc low pressure over eastern Maine sliding toward Atlantic Canada. Associated sfc cold front now well offshore of the eastern seaboard this morning. To the south, 1026+mb sfc high pressure continues to build across the deep south toward the TN River Valley. Aloft, latest upper air analysis shows strengthening upper trough taking on a negative tilt, as it slides offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast and lifts across the northeast into New England. Weak shortwave ridging on its heels bringing clearing across the region this morning. Cold and dry today, as sfc high pressure continues to build across the southeast. Despite westerly flow aloft, and a mainly clear sky, afternoon high temperatures will struggle to climb into the low to mid 30s in most spots, which represent highs ~15-20 deg below normal. Expect wind chill values to linger in the 20s through the day with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph this morning before gradually diminishing late. Precip chances nudge up (slightly) tonight with the latest in a series of clipper systems sliding from the Ohio Valley into the northeast. Models remain in good agreement that this feature will push along and north of the region, with model timing a bit faster at 00z than 12z. Have maintained a 20% of rain/snow showers over the Lwr Eastern Shore, mainly for a passing RA/SN shower this evening. Could see a brief flurry/sprinkle farther south into Central VA this evening, but have kept pops aob 14% with chances of measuring quite low even on CAMs. Otherwise, look for an increase in clouds this aftn through evening, with clearing late. Not quite as cold with early morning lows 25-30 inland, lower 30s se coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Mostly clear/dry conditions persist for Thu with temps moderating. Highs mainly in the mid/upr 40s under a partly cloudy sky. Early morning lows in the low to mid 20 inland...upper 20s to low 30s at the coast. Models are a bit flatter with the upper level flow for the Friday system. As such, expect any significant QPF to be well off to our north. Will hang on to a slight to low end chance pop across the MD lower eastern shore for now, but would expect any impacts to be minimal given model trend towards a more zonal pattern aloft. Highs upper 30s to low 40s north...45 to 50 south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds back into the region for Saturday and Sunday leading to dry conditions and a warming trend with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 40s on Saturday and into the 50s on Sunday. Another system approaches the region during the day on Sunday bringing another chance of rain Sunday into Monday. Temperatures continue to moderate into early next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Monday and Tuesday and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Cold front now offshore this morning. West winds have diminished a bit before sunrise but should increase slightly and remain gusty through mid aftn, w/gusts to 20-25 kt expected. Otherwise expect VFR conditions all sites through the 12z TAF period. Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to then prevail for much of the week ahead. Some mid to high clouds expected by early this evening, associated with next clipper to cross north of the terminals tonight into early Thu. Low chance of a few flurries at SBY Wed evening, with another low chance on Friday. Otherwise, dry with VFR conditions for much of the latter half of the week into the weekend. Rain chances pick up again by late Sunday/early Monday ahead of next system approaching from the deep south.
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&& .MARINE... Gale warnings remain in place through this afternoon (4pm) due to WNW winds remaining elevated in the wake of last evening`s cold front. Gusts between 35-40 kt will be common. Kept the local rivers (except the lwr James) in strong SCA with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5- 7 ft, with 3-5 ft waves. Expect the gales to be replaced with SCAs this afternoon through midday Thursday, as the gradient relaxes a bit ahead of the next weaker cold front approaching from the west. Some guidance does indicate the potential for gale gusts (~35 kt) across the outer coastal waters tonight. Confidence in this remains low at this time. Seas build back to 5-6 ft; waves 3-4 ft. Next cold front crosses the waters by Thursday afternoon but with weak CAA behind it lending to sub-SCA conditions through Friday. Next system skirts the coast Friday night with SCA conditions possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Potential exists for some low water issues during Thurs tide cycles given the gusty offshore flow (W-SW). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-638- 650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.