Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141742 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England this afternoon as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the coast. This area of high pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight into Sunday. A cold front passes through the region late Sunday night into Monday. Cool high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Minor adjustments to the fcst necessary attm. Conditions have changed very little the past 24 hours. Near 1030mb sfc hi pres remains centered invof Nova Scotia and ridging back to the SW across srn New England and into the Blue Ridge region of VA/NC. Meanwhile...weak lo pres is situated immediately off the coast of the Outer Banks. The weak low off the coast is expected to lift nwd through this afternoon while gradually weakening. today and gradually weaken. Moisture remains trapped/stubborn aob 900mb...and any erosion will be difficult...esp from the i 95 corridor on E. Partial clearing may start to occur over the Piedmont by late afternoon...otherwise remaining cloudy w/ 15-30% -RA/DZ...esp ern portions. Highs 70-75F...w/ u70s- around 80F over the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A drying trend is expected later tonight into Sunday, as the weak low dissipates, and the strong high off the New England coast settles swd off the Mid-Atlantic coast resulting in SSW low- level flow. This will produce unseasonably warm conditions by Sunday (although not as humid) with the sky becoming mostly sunny. High temperatures Sunday will be in the low/mid 80s, after morning lows in the low/mid 60s. The cold front crosses the mountains Sunday night, and then continues to press ESE through the local area late Sunday night into Monday morning, passing through far SE VA/NE NC late Monday morning per 14/00z model consensus. Becoming mostly cloudy over the NW half of the area after Midnight Monday, while remaining partly cloudy SE. Models depict a narrow band of lift with the front, with the highest PoPs 40-60% across the NW portion of the area late Sunday night, and then shifting to the SE portion of the area Monday morning through midday. Lows Sunday night range from the mid 50s NW, to the low/mid 60s SE. Highs Monday will generally be in the mid/upper 60s, and temperatures may remain steady across SE VA/NE NC, or slowly fall a few degrees Monday morning through midday with clouds/pcpn. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front is expected to clear the area Monday night into early Tuesday. A few showers may linger in the far southeast into early Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday into Wednesday with much cooler and drier air being ushered into the region. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than what we have become accustomed too with temperatures only in the mid 60s. By Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s for many locations away from the coast. Drier and cooler weather is expected to last through the extended period with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the period with highs reaching the mid 70s by Friday. It should be noted that while these values will feel much cooler, temperatures will be close to normal for mid October. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Widespread IFR stratus and patchy areas of light rain and drizzle continue to plague the region due to onshore flow and a weak area of low pressure off the Va/NC coast. Conditions are expected to show little improvement through the day and will be worsened by fog developing overnight with light wind and abundant moisture. Drier air will move into the area late Sunday morning into the afternoon bringing VFR conditions. A cold front pushes across the region late Sunday into Monday bringing the chance for some showers and gusty NW wind. High pressure and VFR conditions spread into the region Monday night through Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... The models are struggling to handle the winds associated with the weak low off the NC coast. Guidance suggest that winds should be diminishing over the waters already, but obs show that winds are still in the 15 to 20 kt range over the lower Ches Bay. So have amended the forecast to keep winds up for another 6 hours at low end sca levels on the Lower Bay. Seas are slowly beginning to drop over the coastal waters, but expect to keep the seas above 5 FT through the sca period, 6z Sunday. The surface low will slowly elongate today and fill as the surface high pressure system slides off the NE coast and gradually reforms into more of a Bermuda High with Southerly flow developing on Sunday. The S/SW flow will increase Sunday afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a strong cold front that will sweep across the waters. Behind this cold front, expect a strong surge of cool canadian air to arrive. Expect small craft conditions to develop Monday afternoon into Monday night. High pressure slides over the area by Tuesday morning with winds relax below sca levels. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...ESS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.