Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140105 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 905 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SRLY FLOW ARND OFFSHORE RIDGE RESULTS IN A WARM & DRY APRIL NIGHT AHEAD. XPCT PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDINESS THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS M-U50S. PBVS DSCN: CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY. PCPN APPROACHES OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A BIT LOWER HEIGHTS. HIGHS RANGE 70S...RANGING TO NEAR 80 OVER INTERIOR AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD FOR APRIL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND SHRA...BUT STILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S W...TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S EXCEPT MID 70S FAR SE. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR (AROUND 50KT) ALONG WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. SREF/NAM INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF 2M DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN 60F DURING MUCH OF TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL HELP TO BOOST CAPE INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A +3-4 ST DEV LOW-LEVEL JET. GIVEN THIS...THERE IS SUPPORT FOR A FORCED LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING ECHOES. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE DURATION SHOULD LIMIT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR LESS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON WHERE INSTABILITY SETS UP. AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL MIDDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AT A GIVEN TIME. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE PSBL IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK OVER FAR SE VIRGINIA AND NE NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END WITH THE FRONT BUT RAIN LINGERS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...SOME AREAS FALLING TO THE 40S BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DROP TO THEIR LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS MONTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...A FEW READINGS OF AROUND 32 DEGREES WILL BE PSBL OVER THE PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. DURATION OF ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF AND WIND SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING. GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COLDER READINGS SO THIS FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED IF NEEDED. THE FROST FREEZE HAS BEGUN IN ALL BUT THE MD COUNTIES AND AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 360. THIS REMAINING SECTION BEGINS APRIL 15 (CORRECTION TO PREVIOUS AFD INFORMATION). WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY... RANGING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH STRONG SFC HI PRES LOCKED IN PLACE OVR NEW ENGLAND AND RESULTING NE FLOW OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. AS WITH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL IS THERE WED NGT FOR FROST/FREEZE MAINLY OVR THE PIEDMONT WITH TEMPS FORECASTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S (LO 30S IS PSBL IN COLDEST SPOTS). WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST WED NGT THAN TUE NGT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. BLO NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THU WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE SFC HI WILL REMAIN STRADDLED DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST THRU FRI LEADING TO PROLONGED NE FLOW AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS. MID-LEVEL ENERGY ARRIVES LATE FRI INTO SAT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE (30%) FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS OVER AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S-SW 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT AFTER 06Z. OUTLOOK...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY/TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH IS SET TO IMPACT THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TUE NGT/WED THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N-NW. && .MARINE... SFC HI PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TNGT LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY THRU 1 AM WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSE TO CRITERIA. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WTRS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER INCREASING WINDS LIKELY TO BRING SCA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT. THE FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS TUE...WITH PROLONGED NE FLOW THEREAFTER KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AOA 5 FT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...MPR/LSA SHORT TERM...LSA LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MAM/JEF MARINE...MAS/JEF

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