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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
316 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...

BULK OF THE MDT/HVY PCPN HAS SHIFTED OFF THE CST. MSTLY LGT
PCPN...SN N/CNTRL LOCATIONS...MIXED PCPN S AND SE THROUGH THE EVE
HRS (GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN W TO E). ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS PTNTLLY
UP TO AN INCH IN SOME PLACES. W/ COLD AIR (AND CONTD FALLING TEMPS
THIS EVE) AND PSBL ADDITIONAL (THOUGH LGT) WINTRY PCPN...WILL KEEP
HEADLINES AS THEY ARE INTO THE EVE HRS (FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDS
THROUGH THE RUSH HOURS AS TEMPS CONT TO FALL).

AFT MDNGT...S/W ALOFT MOVES OFF THE CST...AND DRYING FM THE NNW
OVERTAKES MUCH OF THE FA. XPCG LINGERING CLDS AND PSBL ISOLD/SCT
PCPN (SN) RIGHT NR THE CST (PRIMARILY SE VA/NE NC). TEMPS CONTG TO
PLUNGE OVRNGT...DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
INLAND...L/M20S RIGHT NR THE CST (SE VA/NE NC). ALL-TIME RECORD
MARCH LO TEMPS PSBL...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
POTENTIAL DAILY RECORDS TUE).

MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NGT EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER FAR SE VA AND NR THE NC CST. SEVERAL OF THE
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SE VA AND NE NC LT TUE NGT AND WED MRNG
(LGT/SPOTTY FREEZING RA INLAND?). KEPT POPS OF 20-30% FAR SE VA/NE
NC. CLOUDS INCRS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WED WITH AN INCRS
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPS TUE RANGE FROM 30 ON THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE TO THE
M/U30S OVER INLAND VA AND NE NC. TUES NGT WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH
LOWS FROM THE MID TO UPR TEENS W OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE L30S AT
THE COAST. HI TEMPS WED IN THE L/M40S.

BY THU...MDL DIFFERENCES EXIST...W/ THE NAM KEEPING ANY SFC LO PRES
AND PCPN OFF THE CST...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE SGFNT AREA OF
LO PRES NR THE CSTL CAROLINAS...PTNTL SPREADING PCPN NNE (AND
PRIMARILY ACRS SE VA/NE NC) ON THU. CONFINED CHC POPS TO AREAS OF
SE VA/NE NC FOR NOW. LO TEMPS IN THE M/U20S INLAND...TO M/U30S NR
THE CST. HI TEMPS THU IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO THE M/U40S NR THE
CST IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SERN STATES THURS/THURS NIGHT...THEN NE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC FRI/FRI NIGHT. FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A SFC LOW
UP THE COAST THURS NIGHT/FRI...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SAT. P-TYPE ISSUES ARISE ON THURS/THURS NIGHT AS INITIAL
PUSH OF PCPN WILL OVERRUN CAD WEDGE SETUP. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THIS TIME...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM AVC TO
RICHMOND/TRI-CITES TO THE MIDDLE PENINSULA/EASTERN SHORE. DO NOT
WANT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ATTM SINCE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL QUITE
SIGNIFICANT. PCPN IS EXPECTING TO CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID ON FRI/FRI
NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL S-SE FLOW WINS OUT AND HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
WEDGE. AGAIN...ANY CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WOULD GREATLY
IMPACT THIS FORECAST. DRY WX EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGHS THURS IN THE MID 30S NW TO THE MID/UPR 40S SE. FRIDAY`S HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOW/MID 50S SE. MILDER NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIXED PCPN OVERSPREADING RIC / SBY AREAS AT 12Z. DRY ACROSS SERN TAF
SITES WITH SCT-BKN IFR CIGS MOST AREAS. EXPECT PCPN TO OVERSPREAD
ENTIRE AREA NEXT FEW HOURS...FIRST STARTING OFF AS RAIN...THEN A
RAIN/SLEET MIX...SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER TO ALL SNOW AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S BY THE AFTRN. LATEST DATA IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SO
THAT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR A 3-4 HR PRD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW
THAT MOVES N-S ACROSS VA/MD TAF SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTRN. LATEST DATA EVEN SUGGESTS THE PSBLTY OF ISLTD THUNDERSNOW
AT BOTH RIC & SBY WHERE SNOWFALL RATES APPRCH 2 INCHES PER HR. SO
HAVE INDICATED 1/2SM SN WITH FZFG DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS TMPS
PLUMMET TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. THIS SEQUENCE TAKES A BIT LONGER TO
OCCUR (MID - LATE AFTRN) ACROSS SERN VA ALONG WITH LESS QPF SO
THAT SNOWFALL RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ANTHR
PSBLTY AS WINDS GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS THIS AFTRN.

SNOW QUICKLY ENDS BY 00Z AT RIC-SBY AND BY 03Z AT PHF-ORF AND ARND
05Z AT ECG. MODELS DRY OUT COLUMN FOR SKIES TO CLR BY MIDNIGHT AT
RIC/SBY BUT KEEEP MVFR CIGS ACROSS SERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE INTO WED BEFORE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WED.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING. NO PLAN TO CHANGE ANY HEADLINES ATTM AS
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES TO
REMAIN 4-5 FT ON THE CHES BAY...WITH SEAS OF 5-10 FT (HIGHEST
SOUTHERN WATERS). CONDITIONS WILL BE CALMER EVERYWHERE TUE AFTN THRU
WED...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE AREA. STRONG NE OR
N WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP OFF THE EAST COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN SOME RECORDS FOR TUE (MARCH 4TH)

             RECORD LOW MAX      RECORD LOW MIN
RICHMOND        32 IN 1960          10 IN 2009
NORFOLK         35 IN 1960          16 IN 1943
SALISBURY       27 IN 1960           1 IN 2009

ALL OF THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES LISTED MATCH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT EACH OF THE
RESPECTIVE LOCATIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ