Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241521 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1121 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED TO INDICATE MORE OF A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE WHERE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION VIA NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THIS AREA WELL ROOTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY. MIXTURE OF CLOUDS/SUN FARTHER SOUTH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...S/W ENERGY MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM IS PROGGED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NE COAST. RADAR DATA SHOWING SOME ECHO ENHANCEMENT AS THEY REACH THE ERN SHORE. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN LOWER LVLS...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES TO THE ERN SHORE AREAS THRU 12Z. OTW...TSCTNS SHOW YET ANTHER UPR LVL S/W MOVG QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTN. ENUF MSTR FOR SKIES TO AVG MSTLY CLDY THOUGH SOME PRTL SUNSHINE WILL BE PSBL FROM TIME TO TIME. THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH A NE WIND FLOW WILL KEEP TMPS WELL BLO NORMAL. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE M40S ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE BAY XCPT M50S SWRN MOST CNTYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... DIFFERENCES IN MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS RESULTS IN A LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL ACTUALLY OCCURS. GFS QUICKER / WETTER THAN NAM / ECMWF AS IT SEEMS ENHANCED BY AN UPR LVL S/W AHEAD OF APPRCHG WARM FRONT FROM THE SW. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30 POPS (LIQUID) ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF FA THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASED 30-50 POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. OFFSHORE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ERN SHORE DRY BUT DID KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SERN VA FOR NOW. P-TYPE ISSUES (IP) MAY ARISE IF PCPN DOES REACH THE LWR MD ERN SHORE LATE GIVEN LOWS 30-32. OTW...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M-U30S. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA (XCPT LWR MD ERN SHORE) DURING THE MORNING. TSCTNS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLNTY OF CLOUDS ARND AT VARIOUS LEVELS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MSTLY CLDY. WAA SHOULD HELP BOOT TEMPS INTO THE M50S NORTHERN HALF OF FA...55-60 SOUTHERN HALF. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL ALONG SFC TROF OUT AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. CHANGED PCPN TYPE TO A MORE CONVECTIVE SCHEME (SHWRS) DUE TO FA BEING IN WARM SECTOR. TMPS STDY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 50S AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS. S-SW FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY ALLOWING TMPS TO JUMP TO BTWN 70-75. WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT CHC POPS WITH SLGHT CHC TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SERN CSTL AREAS. QPF BTWN NOW AND THURSDAY AVGS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AND TAPERED POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE SSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING NORTHERN FL MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FORECAST AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTH SATURDAY TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IT DRY. HIGHS FRI IN THE M50S-L60S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 30S. COLDEST DAY WILL BE SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY 45-50. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE U20S-M30S. HIGHS SUN 50-55. LOWS SUN NIGHT 35-40. HIGHS MON 60-65. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE THRU SUNRISE...AND WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS WELL. OVC SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FURTHER THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL KEEP VFR AT THIS TIME AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. AS WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VICINITY SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY LATE EVENING WITH NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. FINALLY...CONDITIONS LOOK TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE E-NE WINDS AOB 15 KT TODAY. WAVES WILL RUN 1-2 FT...AND SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW-END SCA WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT THURSDAY...WITH WAVES 3-4 FT ON THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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