Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290757 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 357 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WAS RIDGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE PIEDMONT OF FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. RADAR INDICATED THAT LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS NORTH. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION AND WEAK LIFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY BUT HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO CHESAPEAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30 PERCENT POPS OVER NORTH CAROLINA WEST OF ELIZABETH CITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW PORTIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. READINGS WILL HOLD IN THE 80 TO 83 RANGE ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE SHORELINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO... WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (STILL IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE) ALONG AND N-NE OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING MOST OF SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW ALSO DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 90/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 70 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A BERMUDA HIGH. MID-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING OVERALL PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT... BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS HIGHER POPS OF 30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM AVC-RIC-SBY AND LOWER POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS NE NC/FAR SE VA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL TEND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENLY RUN ABOUT 5 F ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS TO THE AREA FOR LABOR DAY...WILL CARRY 40% POPS THROUGHOUT...FOLLOWED BY POPS ONLY ~20% ON TUE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. TUE LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY..WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING ABOVE 90 F AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOMEWHAT HIGH POPS IS SLATED FOR TUE EVENING/TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. BY LATE WED-THU...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST DOES PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THU. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS WED-THU ACRS THE SOUTH (20-30%) WITH GENLY A DRY FORECAST ACRS THE ERN SHORE. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE FRONT HAS STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED JUST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY SLIDING SE AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MISS ECG...BUT IS PROVIDING SOME OVERCAST CONDITIONS FOR PHF/ORF/ECG. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY GROUND FOG FROM FORMING. SBY IS DEEPER INTO THE DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND IS CLEAR TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5K TO 8K FT. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BKN CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS VA INTO NE NC. FURTHER NORTH NEAR SBY HAVE JUST ALLOWED FOR SOME SCATTERED CU TO FORM. THE MID DECK CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS VA AND NERN NC TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHWARD. BUT AT THIS POINT...ALL CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE... CRISTOBAL NOW >500 NM ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS AVG AROUND 10 KT...WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS MODEST PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ESE FROM MICHIGAN INTO THE NE AND NRN MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL MAINTAIN SCHS HEADLINE FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH 10PM...WITH NO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. (MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY). N/NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE E/NE IN THE AFTN AND AVG 10-15 KT ACRS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO 5-10 KT FARTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL GENLY ONLY BE AROUND 3 FT...BUT WILL GENLY STILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AS ENERGY FROM CRISTOBAL IS SLOW TO DIMINISH. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME SE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS THEN BECOME S/SW SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF 20NM LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF 2-3 FT WAVES IN THE BAY SAT NIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT OR LESS AS SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUE/WED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...LSA SHORT TERM...BMD/LSA LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...ESS MARINE...LKB

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