Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181411 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1011 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the southeast coast continues the warm and humid conditions through Monday. A cold front approaches from the west late Monday...then stalls over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Another warm/humid day on the way...w/ sfc hi pres still located in the wrn Atlantic. Deeper layered SSW flo will be lead to a bit lower PoP the rest of the day as compared to previous two. Maintaining 15-20% PoP over much of the FA...otherwise (becoming) partly sunny. Highs in the u80s-l90s...except 80 to 85F at most beaches. Heat indices reaching 95 to 100F (esp inland).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Any lingering convection weakens/disspiates after sunset. Otw, pt cldy warm and humid with lows in the low-mid 70s. Things get interesting Monday through Tuesday as ample moisture combines with a slow moving cold front. At this point, data suggests most of Monday (through about 21Z) will not be an issue as only sct pre-frontal convection develops. In fact, enough heating early in the day allows temps to reach the upr 80s to near 90. Its after 21Z that a line of convection drops south into the AKQ fa then slowly drifts SSE across the region Monday night. This is where SPC has kept us in a DAY 2 slght/marginal risk for severe storms (enhanced risk just north of the AKQ fa) with damaging winds being the main threat but can`t rule out some large hail accompanying the initial storms given the instability the environment will have to work with. Thus, kept low chc pops through 18Z then ramped up to likely across the piedmont after 21Z. Models show the event turning into a heavy rain producer Monday night as slow moving (training) storms ever so slowy drift SSE given the high pw`s as the boundary becomes parallel to the flow. Best support for heavy rainfall will be across the northern half of the fa between 00Z-06Z Tue where 1-2+ inches of rain could easily fall. Thus, kept categorical pops but added R+ to the grids most areas of VA/MD. May eventually need some sort of a flood watch as well. The steadiest and heaviest rainfall may not get to sern VA/NErn NC until after midnight. By then, the intensity is progged to weaken a bit with high chc to likely pops. Lows in the upr 60s-mid 70s. Will continue to highlight this event both in the HWO and social media. The front sags south and is progged to stall across SERN VA / NErn NC Tuesday. Thus, pops continue across the southern half of the fa Tuesday ramping up to likely after 18Z with the potential for heavy rainfall across those areas. Drying out across the north. Cooler with highs 80-85. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A frontal boundary lingers in vicinity of the coastal plain of SE VA and the Carolinas Tuesday night/Wednesday resulting in some lingering 30-40% PoPs in those areas. Adjusted pops across the SE Tuesday evening upwards a bit based on the progged frontal position. The latest data supports relatively dry conditions Thursday then potential for diurnal convection Friday into next weekend but uncertainty is high at this time. Highs in the 80s Wednesday/Thursday, then maybe creeping back into the low 90s Friday/Saturday. Lows in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect the MVFR ST cloud deck to slowly lift into a VFR SCT-BKN CU layer later this morning. Kept VCSH next few hours at ECG per current radar loop of the shwrs moving NNE along the Outer Banks. Only ISLTD convection expected between 18Z-00Z. Thus, the chc is still to low to include at any one TAF site attm. Went with a BKN CU deck instead. Outlook...A cold front drops into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Strong to psbl severe storms along with hvy rain with this boundary. Sct convection expected through mid week as the boundary stalls across the area. && .MARINE... The pressure gradient tightens today ahead of a cold front that will push across the Midwest towards the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. South winds 5-15kt this morning will increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt coastal waters) this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft this morning will build to 4-6ft north of Cape Charles Light and 3-5ft south. Waves in Ches Bay will average 2ft this morning and then build to 3ft this afternoon with pockets of 4ft in the middle of the Bay. SCA flags are in effect for the nrn coastal waters with the rest going into effect at 100 PM this afternoon. A lull in SCA conditions should be anticipated for Currituck Sound and Ern VA rivers late tonight through Monday morning. However, the pressure gradient tightens up even more by Monday afternoon with the cold front closing in on the Appalachian mountains. A return to SCA conditions early Monday afternoon (S-SW winds 15-25kt all waters with gusts up to 30kt coastal waters) has resulted in an extension to SCA flags through Monday night Bay/Sound/Rivers and through Tuesday morning for coastal waters. Seas are expected to build to 5-7ft north of Cape Charles Light during this secondary surge. Waves still averaging 3ft. SCA conditions subside by Tuesday morning with SW winds diminishing below 15kt all waters, however SCA flags for coastal waters will continue through the morning due to seas being slightly slower to subside below 5ft. For Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the week, generally southwest winds at sub-SCA speeds will prevail. Seas 2-4ft. Waves 1-3ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR LONG TERM...JDM/MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD

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