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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB