Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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314 FXUS61 KAKQ 160309 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1009 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure departs to the northeast by tonight. A weak cold front will drop across the region early Thursday, followed by high pressure returning late Thursday into Friday. A strong cold front will affect the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada this evening and extends to the SW along the New England coast. Meanwhile, a weak coastal trough is situated off the VA Capes and NC Outer Banks. Additionally, strong low pressure is lifting newd over the Great Lakes, with a cold front trailing to the S across the wrn slopes of the Appalachians. A stubborn deck of stratus continues to coverer much of the local area, with mid and high clouds spreading in from the W ahead of the cold front, and a narrow area of clearing over the Piedmont. Temperatures are primarily in the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the area, but have dropped into the upper 30s/around 40F in the area of clearing. Sfc high pressure retreats farther NE tonight as low pressure continues to swing through the upper Great Lakes. The cold front approaches from the NW and drops across the region very late tonight-early Thursday. That front will be moisture starved, so will carry no worse than a 20-30% PoP across the far NW late this evening through the early overnight hours, then 30-40% over the Eastern Shore between 06z-12z Thu (highest PoPs from the Northern Neck to the the MD Eastern Shore). Generally mostly cloudy to overcast tonight with lows mainly ranging from the upper 30s over the Piedmont to mid 40s closer to the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warmer and becoming mostly sunny Thurs, aided by dry WNW flow behind the departing cold front. Highs Thurs in the low to mid 60s. Mostly clear and colder again Thu night as sfc high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest. Lows 30-35 inland and on the lower MD ern shore...to the low/mid 40s in SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Friday as dry and cool high pressure builds over the area. Highs in the low to mid 50s. The high slides offshore Friday night allowing return flow to setup on Saturday with mild temps and moisture advection. Lows Friday night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Highs Saturday in the low/mid 60s...possibly reaching the upr 60s to around 70 in the south. Clouds will gradually increase through the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Still expected a strong cold front to cross the area Sat night. PoPs are 60% areawide Sat night with guidance coming into better alignment regarding the timing of the front. Low temps mainly in the mid 40s to lwr 50s. The rain will push offshore fairly quickly Sun morning as the front advances fast, leaving seasonable wx with highs in the 50s, and breezy conditions behind the front. Maintained a dry forecast thereafter for the extended period with high pressure building over the eastern CONUS. Highs temps in the 40s Mon increase to the 50s Tue and Wed. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A mainly dry cold front is expected to cross the area tonight with sub-VFR conditions along and ahead of the front. Primarily VFR conditions to start the TAF period, but ceilings are expected to become MVFR (1500 to 2500 feet) as the front approaches. Pockets of IFR ceilings, particularly at SBY, cannot be ruled out with the frontal passage. Conditions return to VFR by early Thursday morning for a majority of the region as high pressure returns to the area. WNW on Thursday will be gusty at times with a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday before the next cold front approaches the region Saturday night. Sub- VFR ceilings and rain showers will be possible with the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday allowing for a return to VFR. Gusty winds will be possible behind the front on Sunday. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1025 mb high pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes with low pressure over the Great Lakes region. Following sub-SCA winds tonight through the first half of the day Thu, W/NW winds will increase Thu aftn and evening following the fropa associated with the aforementioned low tracking east. The SCA over coastal wtrs has been extended through the end of the third period, for 4-6 ft seas each period, and 15-25 kt sustained winds Thu night. Expect gusts up to 30 kt there, with a few gusts up to 35 kt psbl by Thu evening. 15-25 kt winds with gusts up to 30 kt also expected over the Bay. Will hold off on any headlines attm over the rivers and Sound, but with it being third being will re-evaluate tonight as conditions will be more marginal there. Sfc high pressure then builds in for Fri and with decreasing CAA, winds/waves/seas will decrease. Could still be some lingering 5 ft seas over the ocean into Fri aftn however. A cold front crosses the area Sat night, and with a strong pressure gradient expect strong SCA or even gale conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB MARINE...MAS

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