Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192033 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 433 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides into the northern Atlantic through tonight, as a weak warm front lifts back into and across the region. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday night, then pushes across the local area late Friday into Friday night. The front will lay across North Carolina Saturday into Saturday night, as low pressure tracks from Arkansas eastward through Tennessee. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A weak warm front will lift ENE and acrs the area tonight into Thu morning. Very weak forcing or lift associated with the boundary, so will have just 10-20% Pops for isolated showers over the CWA. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy or cloudy sky tonight with lows ranging thru the 50s to arnd 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Increasing low level moisture/dewpoints expected acrs the region Thu thru Fri, along with warmer temps. SSW winds and more sunshine will help temps climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Thu, and into the lower to mid 80s on Fri. Have slgt chc to sml chc Pops for shower or tstm for mainly Thu aftn into Thu evening, due to the development of a weak sfc trough. A cold front approaches fm the NW late Thu night, then slowly drops acrs the region late Fri into Fri night. Accompanying this front will likely be at least sctd showers/tstms (Will have 20-40% Pops). The frontal boundary will become stationary over NC late Fri night thru Sat. Low pressure will then track fm Arkansas ewrd thru TN during Sat. This will result in overrunning pcpn and increasing Pops for rain acrs the area. Highs on Sat will range thru the 60s into the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Latest 19/12z models continue to depict unsettled conditions for at least the first portion of the long term/Sat night through Mon. Potent system gathers over the Tennessee Valley Saturday night and slowly lifts ENE across NC or far southern VA Sunday into Sunday night bringing widespread rain, with tstms possible for mainly southern/SE portions of the area. PoPs have been increased to 60% N/NW late Saturday night as overrunning focuses well out ahead of the approaching boundary. Forcing is much weaker across the S but will maintain 30-40% PoPs there. Sfc-based instability should remain S of the CWA Sat night/Sun morning, but models suggest there could be some elevated instability after 06Z over southern VA/northeast NC so will mention slight chance tstms across the S. Lows Sat night mainly in the 50s. For Sunday, as the sfc low tracks into northern NC or perhaps as far N as southern VA, the warm front will lift N/NW for awhile, before stalling as strong sfc high to the N will remain in place. Highs Sunday will tend to show quite a large gradient, low 60s NW (perhaps upper 50s), with 70-75 F S/SE (and potentially around 80 F for areas along the Albemarle Sound). Tstms will be most likely in the aftn/early evening in southeast VA and northeast NC. Low pressure lingers off the coast Monday with a chance for showers (mainly E/SE) along and ahead of the upper trough axis. Low pressure slowly pulls offshore by Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the NNW with drier conditions returning, but still likely enough moisture for continued chance PoPs southeast VA/northeast NC. Highs Mon and Tue will avg in the mid 60s along the cost and upper 60s/around 70 F well inland. Warmer for Wed as the low finally will be far removed from the region with highs mid 70s inland to 65-70 F near the coast.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure retreats to the NE this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts through the Mid-Atlantic. Areas of light rain from earlier today have largely dissipated, with only lingering spotty -shra. Any -shra will have little to no impact on cigs/vsby. Cigs are 6-8kft at the TAF sites as of 18z, with 2-3kft cigs W of RIC, and some IFR stratus along the ern slopes of the Blue Ridge. MVFR cigs are progged to reach RIC this evening (mainly after 00z) and potentially spread ewd overnight into Thursday morning. There is some potential IFR cigs at RIC/SBY/PHF, but the extent of IFR from around 08-14z is still uncertain. The wind will generally become SE this aftn, shift to S this evening, and then SW late tonight into Thursday, with cigs improving after 14z. High pressure locates off the Southeast Coast Thursday aftn through Friday as a cold front pushes through the Great Lakes Thursday and across the mountains Friday. There is a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms Thursday aftn, and 30-40% Friday aftn. Unsettled conditions continue Friday night into Saturday as the front stalls across NC and moisture arrives from the WSW. Low pressure tracks across the region Saturday night into Sunday with rain and degraded flight conditions likely along with a chc of tstms across SE VA/NE NC. Low pressure lingers immediately offshore Monday as high pressure gradually builds in from the north. && .MARINE... Strong sfc high pressure remains anchored over the Canadian maritimes, but is slowly weakening this aftn. ESE winds avg 10-15 kt, and seas have been hovering around 5 ft for several hrs across the coastal waters but are gradually diminishing now. Will keep SCA headlines through 6pm for far northern coastal waters per latest obs, but expect sub-SCA conditions thereafter. The high will continue to weaken/retreat farther N tonight and Thu morning as a warm front lifts through the area. E/SE winds this evening will shift to SW later tonight as the warm front lifts N of the region. Seas will avg 3-4 ft and Bay waves will avg around 2 ft, 1-2 ft for the rivers. A cold front will approach from the NW Thu night/Fri, and cross the area late Friday with high pressure building N of the region Saturday. A SW wind will continue Friday and then shift to N Saturday behind the front. Low-end/brief SCA conditions are possible Saturday morning with a shallow CAA surge. Low pressure approaches from the SW Saturday and tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night. Still some uncertainty as to exact location of the boundary on Sun, with southern waters potentially getting into warm sector and a southerly flow for awhile as northern zones keep E/NE winds. SCA conditions are likely for most areas Monday into Tuesday as the system exits off the coast and N/NE winds increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...LKB

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