Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150257 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 957 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. STILL SEEING BKN/OVC CONDITIONS PERSIST ACRS THE ERN SHORE IN NNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND WEAK SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IR SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST 2 HRS. NAM HAS GENLY BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO REALITY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WHILE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO SPILL SOUTH INTO ERN VA OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP IT MAINLY CLEAR ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND OVER NE NC. TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PAST 2 NIGHTS...EXPECTING LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WELL INLAND...TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ACRS THE ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE FA MON...THEN OFFSHORE MON EVENING. DESPITE HIGH PRS OVRHD...CHALLENGE IN FCST WILL BE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TMPS. HAVE GENLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AS NAM HAS VERIFIED TOO COOL AND CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECTING SKIES TO AVG OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE NE. GIVEN MORE SUN HAVE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (INTO THE UPPER 50S)...WHILE HIGHS WERE LEFT AS IS OVER THE ERN SHORE (IN THE UPPER 40S). GRADUALLY BCMG CLDY MON NIGHT. DRY AS MODELS KEEP ANY SGNFCNT MSTR WEST OF FA THRU 12Z TUE. LOWS IN THE M-U30S. CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS FA TUE AFTRN. DECENT RIBBON OF MSTR NOTED AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. XPCT A BAND OF PRE-FRNTL SHWRS ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA WED MORN THEN OVRSPRDG THE ERN HALF DRNG THE AFTRN AHEAD OF THE FRNT. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT BUT KEPT THEM IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%) FOR NOW. HIGHS TUE IN THE 50S. PCPN ENDS W-E TUE EVE AS THE FRNT & ASSCTD MSTR PUSHES OFFSHORE. DCRG CLDNS WEST HALF AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U30S-L40S. ANTHR MILD DAY WED. MSTLY SUNNY WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND. HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS MAINLY NW FLO AND HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. A LO PRES AREA WILL THEN TRACK FM THE LWR MS VALLEY ENE AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST FRI NGT THRU SUN MORNG. AT THIS TIME...THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHC OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SUN MORNG. THE PCPN COULD END AS A LITTLE SNOW AS THE STORM EXITS OFF THE CST. THE STORM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE DURING SUN...WITH DRIER NW FLO RETURNING TO THE REGION. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO ARND 50 THU AND FRI...RANGE FM THE LWR 40S TO ARND 50 SAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 40S SUN. LO TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 30S SAT AND SUN MORNGS. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LEANED TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR VIS AT ORF AND PHF WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/LOW 30S AND CLEAR SKIES CREATING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. 3-4K FT CEILINGS OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE WILL PERSIST IN NNW/N FLOW...DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS RIDGING CENTERS OVER THE AREA. A CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUES W PSBL MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRAS. && .MARINE... LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWRD INTO THE ATLC TNGT THRU MON...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION. MAINLY NNW WNDS WILL REMAIN OVR THE WTRS INTO MON AFTN. SPEEDS AVERAGING ARND 15 KT OR LESS TNGT INTO MON AFTN. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. WINDS BECOMING SSW MON NGT THRU TUE...AHEAD OF APPROAHING COLD FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS BY TUE AFTN ARND 10 KT OR 10 TO 15 KT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS TUE EVENG/NGT...WITH SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WNW TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY NW WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVR THE WTRS FOR WED AFTN THRU FRI. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...DAP MARINE...TMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.