Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 290630
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
230 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
A cold front slowly moves across the region through early this
morning. Weak high pressure builds in from the north this
afternoon as the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold
front approaches the region Friday, stalling along the coast into
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Area of shras/tstms mnly confined to just N of the FA border...fm
far nrn VA to the cntrl Delmarva. Hi res-nr term guid keep most of
the shras/tstms fm the Nrn Neck VA to the lwr MD ern shore through
06-09z/29. POPs 30-60% in those areas...while mostly aob 20% elsw.
Kept mention of patchy fog lt away fm the rivers/bay/ocn. Most
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft pushes across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday. Tonight`s cold front stalls in the vicinity of
northeast North Carolina in westerly flow as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Increasing winds aloft along with modest height
falls will interact with lingering mid level moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds over the mountains and dewpoints cool into the low
to mid 60`s. Seasonal daytime temps with highs in the mid to upper
80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Shortwave energy drops over the
local area Wednesday night as the frontal boundary remains over
northeast North Carolina. Retained slight chance to chance POPs far
southern VA and northeast North Carolina. Dry elsewhere. Lows in
the low to mid 60`s.
Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of northeast North
Carolina Thursday. High pressure builds into the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early Thursday, before retreating back over the
Midwest Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave drops into the
Kentucky/Tennessee Valleys. Low pressure progged to develop over the
Gulf States Thursday with an inverted trough extending northward
into the central Appalachians. The frontal boundary along the
Southeast coast will begin to slowly lift northward. Still believe
course resolution models are overdone with precip across the local
area Thursday due to a lack of isentropic lift and appreciable
forcing. However, moisture return and elevated instability will be
enough for isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across the southwest half of the forecast area. Highs
Thursday in the mid 80`s. Will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday
night as the upstream shortwave pushes across the region in tandem
with increasing winds aloft. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s.
The next northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes/New
England Friday. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley
late Friday. Meanwhile, the stubborn frontal boundary remains in the
vicinity of southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. Better
moisture return Friday in deep layer southwest flow will push
precipitable waters toward 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Dewpoints warm back
into the upper 60`s. Will keep mention of chance POPs Friday
afternoon for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend
into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will
transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into
early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant
pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough
will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly
diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm,
moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with
the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in
zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally
driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible,
especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday.
Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool
front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of
salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area.
For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or
even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along
the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front now approaching the area and will push through RIC and
SBY over the next few hrs, and will then stall near the ne NC
coast later this morning. Area of showers now out of RIC, but
could see some fog development there in a few hrs, with low
clouds and fog possible at the other sites as well, mainly from
08-12Z. Improving conditions after 12Z and all sites should be VFR
by 14Z at the latest. Winds will turn to the NNW inland and NNE
closer to the coast with speeds only 5-10 KT. Due to the stalled
front, isolated showers/tstms possible later this aftn across far
southern VA/ne NC but chance is far too low to include in TAFS.
The stalled front will remain the focus for at least isolated
showers/tstms across mainly southern portions of the forecast
region tonight through Fri, and guidance has trended a little
wetter even as early as tonight, though confidence in this is low.
Generally, expect a chance for showers/tstms mainly during the
aftn/evening hrs through Sunday.
Winds generally 10 KT or less early this morning as the (weak) cold
front approaches. 1022+mb sfc high pressure pushes from the Great
Lakes toward the OH Valley later today, with low level surface
wind flow likely light enough to allow seabreeze interactions to
dominate nearshore into the evening hrs. A general WNW flow takes
over by later tonight, becoming ENE to E flow on Thu. The weak
front/sfc trough will meander over/just south of the area for the
late week period, and will serve as the focus for late day
convection over the area late in the week and through the weekend.
A second, somewhat stronger front will shunt the boundary south of
the local area late in the weekend into early next week.
RIC now up to 7.81" for the month of June through 2am this morning
(including the showers that brought additional rain early this
morning). This makes 2016 the 7th wettest June on record (2004 is
wettest June with 9.93"). Also, the May-June total at RIC now
stands at 17.60" and is the 2nd wettest (1972 is wettest with 17.69").