Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181136 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 636 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning. High pressure then builds in from the west tonight and settles over the area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday night as another front moves in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1009 mb low pressure over upstate NY with its attendant cold front stretching down through central VA/NC. Iso-Sct showers continue this morng along/ahead of the front as a strong mid-level shortwave trough approaches from the NW. The cold front drops through the area later this morning, and with deeper mixing and flow becoming westerly in low levels, skies will improve to partly/mostly sunny from west to east. Lowered high temps for today a bit with this forecast package...mainly lwr 60s inland areas with upr 50s Lwr Eastern Shore. Near the coast/Hampton Roads, with the strong shortwave aloft tracking into the area from 12-18Z, expect some redeveloping clouds from 15-21Z and will maintain at least 20-30% POPS there. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry/mostly clear tonight and Thu as sfc high pressure settles over the area. Lows tonight in the mid/upr 30s inland to the lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. Next system approaches from the W/SW Thu night/Fri, with the latest guidance slowing down the onset of pcpn until daytime Fri. Still looks like enough of a good overrunning scenario to maintain likely POPS all areas for Fri. Highs in the low/mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Above normal temps will continue to dominate the extended period acrs the area. A warm front and associated low pressure will lift NE or E of the area Fri night, with weak high pressure building over the region for Sat into Sat evening. Showers will be exiting NE or E of the CWA Fri night, with dry wx for Sat. Sun into early Tue, strong upper low pressure will lift fm the srn Plains/lower MS valley northeast into ern OH/wrn PA. This will result in waves of moisture/strong lift up into the region during this period. So, have gone with likely POPs everywhere, esply Sun aftn into Mon evening. Pcpn chances decrease fm SSW to NNE Mon night into Tue morning, as low pressure moves away to the NNE. Dry wx should return for Tue aftn/evening. Max temps will range fm the lower 50s to the lower 60s, with lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A warm front stays north of the area this morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. VFR to start off the 12Z TAF period over SE terminals with MVFR at KRIC and IFR at KSBY. These conditions may continue over the next few hours with the front in the vicinity. MVFR/IFR psbl at the other three terminals as well but would be short-lived and not confident enough to include in the TAFs attm. Could see some showers as well especially near the coast. Conditions will improve to VFR everywhere by midday as the cold front pushes offshore, and NW winds gust to ~20 kt. Outlook: High pressure builds over the area behind the cold front allowing for VFR conditions tonight into Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible late Thursday and into Friday as the next low pressure system approaches the region. Dry weather returns for Saturday. && .MARINE... A sfc cold front is located across cntrl VA early this morning and is expected to cross the waters from nw to se after sunrise... exiting the NE NC coast by mid-late morning. Sw winds generally 10-15kt Bay/Ocean/Sound with gusts around 20kt over coastal waters. Cooler post-frontal air is expected to arrive around mid-late morning...resulting in a more uniform increase in nw winds rather than a typical surge over the waters. Speeds still generally aob 15kt with gusts around 20kt on coastal waters. Seas 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. Not much change to the overall weather pattern/forecast through Sun. Sfc high pressure builds in from the west tonight and nw-n winds will gradually diminish to 10kt or less by Thu morning. High pressure then resides over the waters through Thu night with light and variable winds anticipated Thu aftn through Thu night. Seas 2-3ft tonight through Thu...building to 2-4ft due to nly swell from the slowly departing Wed system (despite being far enough offshore to have no other significant impacts to the marine forecast). Waves 1-2ft. Sfc high gets pushed offshore Fri morning as an upper low swings through the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic regions during Fri. Winds become se-s aob 10kt. A sfc low is anticipated to develop along a warm frontal boundary associated with this feature and then develop into a coastal low off the far SE VA/NE NC coast late Fri night. The coastal low may linger just off the Cape Hatteras coast on Sat with weak high pressure building nw of the area during the day. Winds become more n-ne Sat/Sat night with speeds no higher than 10kt as the coastal low develops just south of the local marine area. The 2-4ft seas persist Fri into Sat night with a brief lull of 2-3ft seas during the day on Sat. Waves continue at 1-2ft through Sat. Meanwhile, a more vigorous low pressure system exits the Four Corners Region and swings across TX/OK and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sun. A warm front extending ewd from this low will be linked with the coastal low...eventually lifting the warm front north into the area as the sfc low deepens and becomes negatively-tilted. The pressure gradient tightens in response to the incoming sfc low and winds become more onshore/ely with speeds increasing to 10-15kt. Seas expected to build to 3-5ft late in the day; waves building to 2-3ft within the same timeframe. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS MARINE...BMD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.