Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171116 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 716 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FA WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR SHOWING SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE TROF WITH BULK OF PCPN NOW ALONG THE ERN SHORE. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DSPTG BY NOON. XPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY THRU THE MIDDAY HRS BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF CHES BAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE. SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S. NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY. A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH TO THE L-M50S SOUTH. LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30- 40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST 65-70 WEST OF THE BAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SPOTTY -RA IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT ANY -RA THAT OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT PREVAILING -RA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTW...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM/LSA MARINE...JDM

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