Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 101543 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1043 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR PD OF -SN ACRS MNLY NE 1/3RD OF FA EARLIER THIS MRNG HAS EXITED...AND PCPN HAS ENDED. DRYING DP LYRD WNW FLO IN CONTROL OVR THE FA LT THIS MRNG. OTR THAN SCT-OCNL BKN SC INVOF ERN SHORE...SKC ELSW. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT TO SWING ACRS THE FA LT BEGINNING THIS AFTN...LEADING TO SOME INCRS IN CLDNS AND A LO POP (FLURRIES/SCT SNSH)...MNLY OVR NRN AREAS. HI TEMPS MNLY 40-45F. TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS PWATS WILL BE AOB 0.10 INCHES...BUT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE SO WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS THERE (SHOULD BE TOO DRY ELSEWHERE AS DEW PTS WILL BE VERY LOW BUT COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES). COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS PIEDMONT WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY/COLD THURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE...USHERING IN AN EVEN COLDER AND DRIER ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S...OR -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE GULF STATES. ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 40-50% ACRS NE NC AND 20-30% ACRS FAR SOUTHERN/SE VA GIVEN TRENDS IN GFS/NAM. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION ACRS NE NC BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK REMAINS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...ARCTIC AIRMASS IS USHERED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A FEW SNOW SHOWER SAT MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SN/-RASN ACROSS NE NC. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT WITH 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 10C THROUGH THE DAY. THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST...CENTERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS SUN MORNING (LOWS OVER 20F BELOW NORMAL). WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID/UPR 20S ON SUN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS SUN NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE U.S. THAT WILL MOVE NE LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A MULTI-PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT WITH AN ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A MIX ON TUES. PRECIP PROGGED TO MOVE NE OFF THE COAST BY TUE NIGHT && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG...WITH BKN OR OVC SC (3000-6000 FT) AT SBY ESPLY. ALSO...LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE (SW-) AT SBY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. SCT TO BKN SC AND AC LIKELY AT PHF...ORF...AND ECG THRU THIS PERIOD. W WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE ACRS THE REGION TODAY INTO TNGT. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO FRI MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. SHRTWV ENERGY IN WNW FLO ALOFT COUPLED WITH WEAK LO PRES MOVNG ACRS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE CST...COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES (LWR CIGS/VSBYS) FM MIDDAY FRI INTO EARLY FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SRN VA AND NE NC. && .MARINE... MODERATELY STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND CONTINUAL SHOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN W OR NW FLOW OVER THE WTRS TODAY THRU THU NGT. THE RESULT WILL BE PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS ACRS THE WTRS...WITH THE RIVERS SCA CONDITIONS STARTING THIS EVENG. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AVG 25-30 KT THIS MORNG THRU THU NGT OVER THE CSTL WTRS...AND 20-25 KT OVER THE CHES BAY. EXPECT SEAS 3 FT NEARSHORE TO UP TO 5 FT 20NM OFF THE CST WITH THE OFFSHR FLOW. WEAK AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION BY FRI MORNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-SCA CONDITIONS. THEN...STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE WTRS DURING SAT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SUN...AS STRONG CAA ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW TO THE NE AND BLDNG HI FM THE NW. A PERIOD OF FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO EXIST...AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S AND TEENS SUN MORNG...WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KT. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER SUN INTO SUN NGT...AS THE SFC HI CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ALL COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (LATER THIS MORNING OCEAN/LOWER BAY...TO THROUGH THE AFTN ACRS THE MID/UPPER BAY). WITH WNW FLOW...DEPARTURES ARE FALLING...NOW AVG AROUND 1.5 FT. THIS IS STILL ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE UPCOMING CYCLE...ALTHOUGH MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAY AND RIVERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>023. NC...NONE. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ084-086-090-093-095>097-523>525. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ077-078-085-099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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