Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300541 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 141 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION ON LATER MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL AREA OF CIRRUS SHIELD SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND OF THE COAST. BUT MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SERN US CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ABOUT 1021 MB REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN TRENCHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...MOSTLY ACROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1023 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL NC WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF THE GA/SC COAST. ALOFT, AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SUBJECTIVE MID LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXARKANA REGION NE INTO SE ONTARIO. TO THE EAST, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP NNE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH. THIN VEIL OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE SOUTH...FIRST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EASTERN SHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LLVL MOISTURE, OUR FORECAST MINIMA ARE A FEW DEGREES MILDER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AND QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE. FORECAST EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WEAKENS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A QUICK SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUN AFTN, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT LOW LEVELS BELOW H9-85 REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CAN EASILY BE INFERRED IN LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS, INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. THUS, DESPITE THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S, A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THIS REPRESENTS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE (MET). BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. NUDGED LINE OF 20-30% POP SLIGHTLY NORTH, TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL VA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 460 INTO NE NC, MAINLY FOR AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE INTO MON AFTN...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON NIGHT OVER NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE HUMID MON WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST. WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL NC COUNTIES, EXPECT A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HV THEREFORE CAPPED POPS IN SILENT (< 14%) RANGE FOR NOW. AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT EXPECT NO IMPACTS ON TAF SITES. FOR TODAY...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS LOWER TO AROUND 10-15K FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SFC WINDS BECOME SLY INLAND...REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST. SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE ~10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SE. SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ESS/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP AVIATION...SAM MARINE...DAP

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