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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240637
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
237 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE WANING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AIDED
BY LIFT PROVIDED BY A GUST FRONT. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ~35MPH WITH THIS LINE. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS GUST
FRONT INTERACTION ENDS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
LO TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROF SLIDES THRU THE MID ATLANTIC FRI
AFTN...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL FROM 950-700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHC FOR SHWRS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
OVERALL...EXPECT A DRYING TREND AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND
STRONG CAA WORKS INTO THE AREA. A PRTLY CLDY SKY IN THE AFTN WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S.

SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT GENERAL S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED IN THE BAY AND
SOUND...AND HV DROPPED SCA OVERNIGHT WITH LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED. SCAS NOW HAVE BEEN HOISTED AFTER 14Z/FRIDAY WITH
MOD CAA (15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT).

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT W/ DEVELOPMNT/LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST FRI NGT INTO SAT. THE LOW WL BE SLOW TO LIFT TO
THE NE SUN INTO MON...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
AS PER POLICY WL AVOID "DOUBLE HEADLINE" ISSUANCE, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCA FLAGS WILL BE NECESSARY IN THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. PERIOD OF SCA WL BE FOR LATE
FRI MORNING/AFTN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME SUB-SCA
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDYA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAM/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...MAM