Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 241936
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered convection will be based on track of the s/w trof crossing
the area this evening as well as outflow boundarys from the storms
going on across the northern Delmarva. Area remains in slight risk
for damaging winds/large hail, with best chances before sunset using
the logic that for any storm to become severe it will have to act on
the available cape/shear from todays heating and leftover boundarys
from previous convection. Expect any convection to weaken then
diminish with only low chc pops overnight as the boundary sags south
and winds to turn NE. The other concern will be for patchy fog to
form...especially in areas that see rain. Kept chc pops for now and
added patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.
The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.
Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.
Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Nice VFR conditions across the region at 18Z with a few widely
scattered showers. Frontal bndry and broad area of low pressure
cont to lie across the region and will be the focus for any
developing showers and tstms this aftn/evening. Winds will
generally be light less than 10 kt but direction will depend on
location of the front.
The front will move slowly south tonight toward the NC border.
Some areas of light rain and fog/stratus are possible during the
overnight and lower cigs are possible through the morning hours.
Conds should gradually improve during the aftn to VFR.
OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast Sat through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.
The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the