Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300216 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1016 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls north of the region late tonight through midweek. Meanwhile, weak low pressure tracks across North Carolina tonight and off the Outer Banks Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... PoP/QPF forecast updated to reflect latest radar trends and 00Z hiRES guidance. Also lowered temps a bit tonight. Previous Discussion... Latest surface analysis places weak low pressure now well off the Delmarva coast, with associated sfc warm front lifting across the Delmarva at 19z. To the west, a slow moving cold front crossing the central Appalachians from the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Aloft, deep occluded cyclone continues to spin over the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario, with the associated surface cold front extending from the Great Lakes back into the Central Plains. Latest GOES-16 Low to mid level WV imagery showing increasing moisture pushing across the area from central NC, with a deepening CU field across the lower Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Southern half of the area is largely capped, but have noted a few isolated showers/storms as expected along the E VA coast in association with sea/bay-breeze. Therefore have a 20% POP along and east of I-95 for the late aftn hours. Sky cover averages partly to mostly cloudy for the late afternoon hours, with a lull in precipitation still expected early in the evening. However, expect showers to re-develop by mid to late evening, owing to an area of weak low pressure lifting across central NC toward SE VA/NE NC after 00z/8pm EDT tonight w/associated shortwave energy pushing across the southern third of the area within WSW flow aloft. Forecast PoPs area generally 20-40% across southern/SE VA into NE NC late tonight, with a narrow area of likely POP installed along and north of the Albemarle Sound. Thunder mention has been maintained overnight due to the presence of some mid-level instability. Becoming mostly cloudy overnight with lows ranging through the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak/diffuse sfc cold front becomes aligned parallel to W-SW flow aloft Tuesday, stalling immediately N-NW of the region. Meanwhile, the aforementioned broad surface low pushes off the Northern Outer Banks Tuesday morning, with a lull in pcpn once again anticipated for much of the morning/early afternoon. Another period of isolated to widely sct showers and T-Storms is anticipated on Tuesday. However, areal coverage will be confined primarily to the SE CWA. Model consensus indicates that forcing will be a bit more muted across the local area, with stronger shortwave pushing across SW to NE across Eastern NC Tuesday, just southeast of the local area. Therefore, POP remains in 20-40% range over far SE VA/NE NC, and 20-30% for the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore. Highs Tuesday range from the mid 70s to around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland, after morning lows ranging through the 60s. There will be little change in conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday. Good model agreement exists that deep upper trough over Ontario/Upper Great Lakes sharpens Tuesday night and Wednesday. However, there remains a lack of any trigger for convective development during this period with mid-level flow becoming downslope by afternoon. Therefore , have again capped pops at no higher than slight chance Tuesday night, and mainly dry (except far SE) on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night range through the 60s, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 70s/around 80 at the coast to the mid-upper 80s inland. Mid-level trough axis will shunt surface cold front across the area Wednesday night. Given later timing, have maintained only a slight chc for showers and storms for now. Post-frontal W-NW flow and surface high pressure building from the west should combine to yield a dry forecast on Thursday. After early morning lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, look for highs thursday in the low to mid 80s inland...mid to upper 70s Lower Eastern Shore and along area beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Another unsettled period ahead as the models show a frontal boundary stalling across the region next weekend with several waves of low pressure moving along it. This combined with upr level energy and a good low level moisture feed results in chc pops Late Friday through Sunday night, except likely Sat afternoon and evening as that seems to be the time frame of the most significant low. Data suggests locally heavy downpours with another widespread 1-2 inch rainfall psbl. Highs 80-85. Lows mid-upr 60s. Latest trends show the system moving offshore Mon with weak high pressure building into the region. Kept slght chc pops for now until better confidence of removing pops. Cooler with highs 75-80. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period. With a frontal boundary in the vicinity and light onshore flow tonight, expect another round of IFR/MVFR stratus, and possibly low vsbys, especially over NE areas. Also expect some rain over extreme SE VA/NE NC. Conditions will slowly improve through the day Tuesday, but the stratus may continue into the day near the coast. Scattered mainly late day and evening thunderstorms are possible Tuesday. Outlook...Isolated showers for late Wednesday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday. Chances for convection return Friday afternoon and become a likelihood on Saturday afternoon. Patchy fog or stratus is possible each morning within a few hours of sunrise. && .MARINE... Have hoisted an SCA late this evening for the coastal waters north of Chincoteague as seas near buoy have risen to around 5 ft in easterly flow. A frontal boundary remains stationary in the vicinity of the waters overnight. Winds remain ESE 10-15 kt. Seas will 2-3 ft south and 3-5 ft north. The front washes out along the coast Tuesday as another weakening front approaches from the west. Winds generally SE (north) to SW (south) at 10 kts or less. The front pushes just offshore late Tuesday night as flow becomes west to northwest at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 ft. The next cold front crosses the waters Wed night. Only weak CAA progged behind it resulting in continued sub-SCA conditions. High pressure builds over the waters for the end of the work week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides combined with an onshore flow will result in another round of near to minor flooding issues with tonight`s high tide cycle. Thus, coastal flood advisories / statements have been issued to cover the next high tide cycle. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ084-086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS/LSA MARINE...JDM/MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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