Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021740 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 140 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. TO THE WEST, SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE STATES WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SW FLOW/STRONG WAA WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN INTO THE MID- UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FORECAST ALREADY BEGINNING TO MIX BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 98-103 F RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WL AVG AROUND +1.5 TO +2 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND WILL APPROACH AND PERHAPS MATCH DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WELL- CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/WARMING ALOFT. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED A SILENT POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NE NC ALONG POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP (ALBEIT LOW-END CHANCE) HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, SHUNTING THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 21Z/5 PM. WHILE PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.8 INCHES...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE AT ISO-SCT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, BUT HELD OUT MENTION FOR NOW. MILD AND MUGGY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED, AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND DOWNSLOPE/WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED AS WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDS AND THURS...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR 90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDS PREVAILING W/ FEW-SCT CU (BASES MNLY 5-7KFT) ACRS FA...ALONG W/ SSW WNDS AOB 10 KT. NO CONVECTION AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...HWVR...FM ABT 00-06Z/03 AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION...COVERAGE XPCD TO BE SCT SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. THERE MAY BE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
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&& .MARINE... CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY 9/2: RIC: 100/1980 ORF: 97/1993 SBY: 97/1980 ECG: 96/1943 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...LKB/MAS CLIMATE...

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