Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300200 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1000 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE VA/NC BORDER...HAD SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST...WITH A MORE MODEST SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT FARTHER INLAND. FORECAST GENLY IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MAINLY LIGHT ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP STILL ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE VA ERN SHORE AND TO THE SSW IN NC. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ALSO IN QPF FOR FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS INTO NC. THE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE IS QUICKLY EXITING THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD REACH TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SE TONIGHT AND BY 10 TO 12Z...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END. OVERALL...QPF SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25" - 0.50" IN THE SE AND AROUND 0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVG IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LWR 50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE BIG PART OF THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME IS A STRONG DIGGING TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING TROUGH INDUCING A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BUT FOR DETAILS...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND DIFFERENT LOCATIONS FOR THE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NAM TO THE SOUTH AND 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS A FAVORED LOCATION SO LEAN THAT DIRECTION. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE OVER THE CWA. THIS NE FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AND HELP CREATE A WET/COOL DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW EXITS BY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS..20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40..MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORFOLK THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS SAT AFTN/EVENING. FOR TEMPS FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMING IN...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S FRI. SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS BEEN SHOWING A WARMING TREND OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT CURRENT 12Z MEX SHOWING READINGS IN THE 60S LOOKS UNREALISTIC. FOR SAT NIGHT...HAVE KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT PSUHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER CURRENTLY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KECG (WHERE IT WILL DO AROUND 01Z). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU CREATING VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...
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CONTINUED SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES AND CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. 15-20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY THU AM HRS. SEAS FOR NC COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FT...GENLY 4 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS NEAR TERM...ESS/LKB SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...TMG/DAP MARINE...AJZ/DAP

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