Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 061352 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 952 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST MSAS SHOWING MAIN SFC LOW EAST OF SRN NJ COAST WITH UPR LVL LOW IVOF CHES BAY. STRONG FORCING CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE ARND THE UPR LVL LOW WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN CRNTLY LOCATED FROM THE CHES BAY WEST TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTM FROM THE SW SEEMS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE PCPN ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT FCST ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INDICATED A FEW MORE HOURS OF R+ WHICH IS PROGGED TO PIVOT NORTH BY THE AFTRN. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATED PCPN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FA AFTER 18Z AS THE DRIER AIR MAY ACTUALLY ALLOW A FEW BINOVC TO OCCUR. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME TSTMS GIVEN THE COOL POOL ALOFT. TEMPS TRICKY AS READINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS DUE TO THE PCPN RATES THEN RISE TO THE FCSTD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME. PVS DSCN: THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW SHOULD LIMITED POPS. WILL HAVE BEST CHC (30-50%) ACROSS THE NORTH THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 20-30% POPS NORTH EARLY SAT MORN...TO 10% POPS (DRY) SOUTH. LOWS FROM THE UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 50S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LOW GETS FORCED EAST AND OFFSHORE ON SAT AS IT FEELS THE AFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM TROUGH. MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL LINGER OVR THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NGT...AND DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH IT...SO JUST HAVE SMALL CHC (30%) OR SLGT CHC (20%) POPS FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS SAT NGT IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S MOST AREAS MON AS STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD ALLOWING SLY FLOW T0 DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLC. DRY WX EXPECTED WITH LO PRES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE FOR SOME OVERRUNNING PCPN MON NGT/TUE WELL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LO PRES SYSTM...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE COMING WED (30-40% POPS) AS THE LO APPROACHES FM THE W. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S UNDER CONTINUED SLY FLOW...WITH MORNG LOWS IN THE 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO THU (30% POPS) WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE/WED. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, RESULTING IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. CIGS HAVE BOUNCED BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT SHOULD DETERIORATE BACK TO IFR ABD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM AROUND NOON TO MID AFTN, ALTHOUGH SBY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH 00Z. OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DIMINISHING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER SAT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL SLACKENING/WEAKENING OF SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DROP OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED SCA OVER THE CHES BAY. SFC LOW NUDGES N TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY/SRN NJ COAST BY MIDDAY. LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO ~ 10 KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AND WILL TO THE NNW OVER THE BAY AND W-SW OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE, WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT OVER NRN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ACROSS NRN AREAS AND THE SCA HAS BEEN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS TURN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND W/SUB-SCA CONDS TO PREVAIL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SAT...THOUGH SEAS LIKELY STAY ELEVATED AROUND 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARD OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS TURN SSW AND AVG 15 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE NW ON SUNDAY. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL, THUS ADDITIONAL SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOUTH RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS REMAIN SLY AND SUB-SCA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT DURING THIS PERIOD, WAVES 1-2 FT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUNENBURG/MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THIS MORNING DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING NE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS MODERATE RAIN TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SAME AREAS (FROM AMELIA TO MECKLENBURG COUNTY) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ON TOP OF THE 2-3" OF RAIN THAT OCCURRED IN THE AREA SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RAPID RISES IN AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE OF THE FLOOD ADVISORY IS NECESSARY (PERHAPS INTO NOTTOWAY COUNTY). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED...AND HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ~1.5 HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF SOME MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS AROUND THE LOWER BAY (VA BEACH/NORTHAMPTON VA). EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDES, AS DEPARTURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL. ONCE AGAIN, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD APPROACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS, MOST LIKELY WITH THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024- 025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ084>086- 089-090-093-095>098-522>525. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ099- 100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075>078. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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