Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230851 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 351 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region through Friday. Low pressure will linger off the southeast coast Friday through Saturday morning. Another cold front will cross the area late Saturday into Saturday night, with high pressure building back in from the northwest Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest wx analysis indicating a broad area of sfc high pressure extending ENE from Texas to the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlc states. Aloft, a trough axis is in place from the TN Valley south to the Gulf of Mexico and high clouds are streaming into the local area in the WSW flow aloft. Overall a dry/cold airmass has settled across the CWA, still some mixing near the coast so temperatures there are mainly in the upper 30s/lower 40s, while NW portions of the CWA have dropped into the lower- mid 20s. Temperatures to fall a few more degrees through sunrise. For today/tonight, sfc high pressure will remain in control, keeping moisture associated with low pressure over FL shunted to our south. Mostly sunny skies will prevail today, though the high clouds will continue and may dim the sunshine a bit, particularly across SE VA/NE NC later today. Rather shallow mixing underneath sfc high pressure and latest model guidance appears to have finally latched onto this by trending cooler for highs which will be mainly in the upper 40s (around 50 F to lower 50s for extreme SE VA and NE NC). Light winds this aftn through tonight along with dew pts mainly in the 20s will allow for a rapid drop in temperatures after sunset. Lows tonight will avg in the mid 20s to around 30 F most areas (locally a few degrees warmer SE coast). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest GFS/NAM/ECMWF remain in good agreement with the pattern through the weekend, with enough northern stream trough energy passing by to our NE Fri morning to keep sfc low pressure and associated moisture off the SE coast and south of the local area. Sfc high pressure more or less to stay entrenched over the region fri, gradually shifting off the mid-Atlc coast by fri aftn/evening. Bufkit soundings again depict fairly limited/shallow mixing for Fri so even with significant rises in 850 mb temperatures Fri, actual high temperatures at the sfc will not warm all that much, mainly into the mid 50s. Mostly sunny, except for some increasing clouds over the far SE. Next upper trough moves into and through the Great Lakes Fri night/Sat. Still looks like bulk of moisture from low pressure off the SE and Mid Atlc coasts stays over the Gulf stream, as it lifts NNE. Not quite as cold Fri night with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Sfc cold front approaches from the west Fri night into midday Sat, then crosses the area late Sat into Sat night. A somewhat breezy SSW flow to develop and will see a milder day with highs to around 60 F N to the mid 60s SE. Clouds will increase during the aftn and become mostly cloudy across the NW. Sfc cold front and a lagging shortwave trough aloft to cross the region Sat evening and push offshore Sat night. System remains moisture starved, but will carry 20% PoPs over the N/NE, GFS is stronger with the forcing than the ECMWF. Lows in the mid 30s NW to the lower 40s SE. Becoming mostly sunny and turning cooler Sun as sfc high pressure returns from the W. Highs mainly 50-55 F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather and increasing temps on tap for the long term period. Sfc high pressure builds in from the west early next week as an upper-level trough pulls offshore, leading to mostly sunny/clear skies Sun night and into Mon with high temps averaging in the low/mid 50s. Warmer then for Tue and Wed as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW flow over the Mid Atlc...highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR/dry today with just some SCT-BKN high clouds today/tonight.North winds to 10 kt this morning will become light/variable by this aftn and tonight. Sfc high pres will maintain VFR conditions into Sat, winds will strengthen from the SSW Sat ahead of a cold front and turn to the NW Sunday. Skies may become mostly cloudy Sat aftn/evenings with isolated showers possible, but VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... High pressure has begun to build into the region from the west this morning which has allowed winds to diminish. At 4 am, SCAs for the Currituck Sound and Chesapeake Bay will expire, with the SCAs for the coastal waters still set to expire at 10 am as seas gradually subside. Latest NWPS wave guidance is a bit slower to bring seas down until this afternoon so an extension in time may be needed later this morning. With high pressure over the waters, sub-SCA conditions are expected into Friday. The next cold front crosses the region Saturday night bringing the potential for gusty NW winds/SCA conditions for Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...AJB/JDM

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