Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171208 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 708 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the northern mid Atlantic this morning will slide east and off the New England coast this afternoon. Low pressure skirts across North Carolina late this afternoon and evening before moving offshore tonight. High pressure returns of Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest analysis indicates sfc high pressure centered over se PA, wedging southward into VA and eastern NC. Meanwhile, the cold front that crossed the local area yesterday has made it as far south as SE GA. Drier air settling in behind the frontal boundary had allowed for clearing as far south as NE NC earlier this morning, but now mid/high clouds are starting to spill back into southern VA. As of 6 am, temps were generally in the mid/upr 30s with some low 40s far SE VA & NE NC. A complex in-situ wedge setup is expected across the region today, with moisture returning from the SW as a wave of low pressure rides along the stalled frontal boundary to our south. We`ll see dry conditions this morning and a partly-mostly sunny sky from about the Hwy 460 corridor NE around sunrise, with a fairly rapid increase in mid clouds south. Expect mostly cloudy/overcast conditions all areas by midday. Highs today won`t budge much from current levels hovering in the upper 30s/around 40F far NW and up to nr 50F along the Albemarle Sound. Latest hi-res guidance show potential for light pcpn beginning down around South Hill by 18z, then aggressively overspreading the entire FA this afternoon, before exiting from west to east this evening thru midnight. With low dew pts over the N/NW 1/3 of the CWA as pcpn arrives, still anticipate a few hrs worth of sleet and possibly a little snow, mainly N/NW of a FVX-RIC-XSA line. Should be all rain most places south/east of this line, but a little sleet will likely mix in across metro Richmond and possible as far south as the Tri-Cities. Looks like a case where temperatures would be near 40F at the onset with dew pts in the upr 20s/nr 30, then with column cooling/wet bulbing effects will see a cold rain with temps falling into the mid/upper 30s as dew pts rise to around freezing. Only place where a light snow/sleet accumulation (trace to a tenth or two of an inch) looks possible will be the far NW (from Fluvanna Co to Caroline Co). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Should be all rain by this evening as sfc low pressure pushes east of the coast...then heads out to sea by Sun morning. Will have high PoPs (65-80% W to 80-100% E) this evening...decreasing W-E after midnight. Lows around 30 F NW to the upper 30s/lower 40s SE. Sfc high pressure builds over the region Sunday for a dry/mostly sunny day. Highs 55-60F well inland (warmest south central VA), with cooler conditions, mainly in the 47-52F close to the coast with light onshore flow. Models bring next system and a return of moisture back from the SW by Mon. Mostly clear Sun evening with increasing clouds overnight. Lows mainly 35-40F though readings may actually rise a bit after midnight. A chance for rain late west of I-95. Overrunning moisture for Mon morning with slight chc to chc PoPs. Weak CAD setup will keep it cool for much of the day over the NW, highs nr 55F NW to the mid 60s far SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term period will feature well above normal temps. For Mon night/Tue, dry wx expected with an upr-level ridge anchored just off the SE coast and a cold front well west of the local area. Maintained a mainly dry forecast into Wed as well (PoPs aob 20%). Favored the slower solution with the front (ECMWF) as the models tend to break down the upper ridge too quickly in the extended, esp. the GFS. So held off on higher PoPs (30-40%) with the front until Thu. Lower confidence forecast thereafter for the remainder of the week, depending on how long the front stays over the area before lifting off to the north as a warm front. As for temps, highs will be mainly in the mid/upr 70s Tue/Wed except near 70 Lwr Eastern Shore. High temps then drop to aob the 60s Thu/Fri. Lows temps in the 50s Tue night and Wed night, drop about five degrees lwr into Thu night. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions all TAF sites through late morning. Moisture returns quickly from the S/SW by midday and rain is likely this aftn/evening. There could be a brief period of light mix/sleet at KRIC this aftn/mainly all rain other terminals. There is a good potential for IFR cigs all sites late this aftn and evening. Turning drier w/ VFR conditions returning Sunday. Another round of rain showers and flight restrictions/lower cigs are possible Monday. VFR/warm SSW flow to prevail Tuesday. Another cold front approaches from the NW Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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Went ahead and extended SCA through mid-morning for the Ches. Bay. Gusts to ~20 kt for the lower James should diminish over the next hour or so, so will go with a statement there. Otherwise, diminishing winds trend this aftn still holds. Brief convectively-driven surge still expected late aftn into early evening in the Bay. Previous discussion... Latest analysis and buoy reports reveal sfc cold front now well south of the waters, with weak low pressure developing over the Carolinas. Have dropped SCA over the coastal waters with seas currently in the 3-4 ft range, and model guidance in good agreement that seas remain in that same range through mid-morning before diminishing. Headlines for marginal SCA winds/gusts in the Bay/Sound until 7am. May be able to drop early, especially north of Windmill Pt., where SCA winds are already marginal. Sub-SCA conditions expected from mid-morning through the aftn, as high pressure passes N then NE of the area. Developing low pressure will push off the Mid Atlc coast Sat night, with high pressure returning for Sun. A brief period of convectively-driven gusts behind the departing low could yield some SCA gusts. However, this surge should be short enough in duration (~3 hrs) that SMW/MWS will likely be best suited to handle this occurrence. Gradient then slackens overnight, with Sub-SCA conditions expected to continue from Sunday thru at least the middle of next week. NNE winds early Sunday post-frontal veer around to the E-SE as surface high slides offshore, becoming S-SW Monday night into Tue as a warm front lifts north across the waters. SSW flow persists through midweek, with seas remaining 2-3 ft.
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&& .CLIMATE... No record highs were set today at RIC/ORF/SBY, but ECG did set its record high at 81F. Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20. && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MAM CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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