Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
814 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

Low pressure tracks east along a stalled frontal boundary this
evening.  A trailing front drops south across Virginia late tonight
and stalls across North Carolina Friday. High pressure builds in
from the north over the weekend.


Atmos stabilized ovr scntrl VA from eve stms so have cancelled SVR
watch. Left 2 counties in NC in watch for now. Otrw...expecting
contd shras-isold tstms ovr cntrl/srn portions of FA through lt
this eve.

Previous discussion:
The next in a series of convective complexes diving SE across the
mts and is poised to cross the rgn this eve. Cells bowing across
wrn VA will have the potential to be strong next few hours as they
drop SE. Latest Corfidi vectors/instability factors suggest these
cells drop across swrn AKQ zones next few hours tracking on the
leftover moisture/cape boundary left over from this mornings
convection. This is where any severe potential will exist with a
svr tstm watch up until 11 pm across those zreas. Airmass to
stable / worked over to support severe farther north. Pops were
drawn based on latest radar trends.

12Z models then wait for yet another s/w to track east ivof the
stalled frontal boundary located north of the fa tonight. These two
features are progged to sag SSE across the region later tonight then
continue south to near the North Carolina / Virginia border Friday
morning. Thus, periodic convecton will be possible tonight with high
chc pops most areas, and a swath of likely pops across the northern
neck / middle peninsula on east toward the eastern shore where the
best omega / moisture convergence will be associated with the sfc
low late. SW winds shift into the NNE after the fropa. Lows in the
upr 60s to mid 70s.


Models slower with taking the front into North Carolina Friday.
Enough moisture / instability available for chc pops most areas
Friday despite the high pressure building South. A wave of low
pressure along this boundary will likely enhance the convection
across southern zones after 18z. Have increased pops to likely there
with SPC keeping most areas south of I64 in SLGHT risk for severe
tstms. Severe threat will likely depend on location of the front
and points south of it. Threat will be damaging winds / large
hail. Temps tricky as a NE wind will likely keep coastal/beach
areas in the upr 70s-lwr 80s...mid-upr 80s west of the bay.

Chance pops continue Friday evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
assocated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s north
to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.


Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.


Not an easy TAF forecast. Mostly VFR across the region at 18Z but
a large area of showers/tstms is approching from the NW (Ohio
Valley) and moving towards the Mid Atlantic region. How this area
will evolve over time is not being handled very well by model
guidance. Generally expect some showers and possible TSTM
development during the aftn/evening period. This will likely
affect the region through midnight and possibly into the early
morning. MVFR/IFR conditions expected during any convection. VFR
conditions expected outside any precip activity...except some fog
and light rain/drizzle are possible towards the early morning.

Outlook...Unsettled weather continues Fri with a frontal boundary
across the region. Additional showers or storms are possible. The
weekend looks quiet with high pressure building across the Mid


Generally quiet conditions across the marine area for the next few
days. The stationary front across nrn VA will slowly move south
across the waters through Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will
develop along the front and move over the area. As such...south-
southwest winds tonight will gradually turn northeasterly by Friday
night across the waters. Do not expect significant strengthening of
the low and as such am thinking the winds over the coastal waters
will stay well below 20 kt and waves will stay in the 3-4 ft range.
The front remains stationary Saturday keeping NE winds across the
area. High pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before
another cold front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.




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