Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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079
FXUS61 KAKQ 011453
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
953 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds into the area today through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc cold front has pushed off the northern OBX this morning
taking with it the last of the remaining isold shower activity.
Behind the front, the wind has veered to the WNW this morning.
Expect a mostly sunny sky, aside from a potential period of sct-
bkn cu over the Lower MD Ern Shore this aftn. Only modest CAA
behind the front will result in lower max temps today but still
running 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs range from near 60 NW to
the mid/upr 60s SE. Mainly clear and seasonably cool tonight. Lows
in the 30s to around 40 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather expected Fri thru Sat...as WNW flow dominates the
area as CAA improves. Sfc high pressure will gradually build
toward the region fm the WNW. Mainly clear thru the period. Near
normal/below normal highs expected for Fri and Sat. Highs on Fri
in the lower to mid 50s, and highs on Sat in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Lows Fri ngt mainly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool high pressure is expected to be centered over the Mid-
Atlantic region Saturday night, before gradually sliding offshore
later Sunday. A split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn
stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn
stream wave diving into the Great Lakes. This will result in dry
conditions Saturday night, with a mostly clear sky Saturday
evening, followed by increasing clouds later Saturday night, and
then mostly cloudy by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be
below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows
Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s
along the coast, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s to around 50.

Good model agreement remains wrt Great Lakes system (deamplifying
upper trough) passing by to the northwest Sunday night as the
Gulf system passes to the south. 00z probabilistic models handle
this system similarly, each indicating a split of the moisture
north and south of the region, with even this moisture appearing a
bit less impressive with the latest run. A 20-30% PoP has been
maintained in the forecast for this time period. Drier conditions
follow behind this system for Monday with highs in the low/mid
50s, after morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Thereafter, model solutions diverge a bit, but good agreement
exists than a more active weather pattern is on the horizon.
Models are seemingly struggling with southern stream low
approaching from the Red River Valley/Texarkana area for Late
Monday/Tuesday. Sfc High pressure retreats off to the Northeast
during this period, as the associated sfc wave develops and
approaches from the west. Models then weaken the upper trough as
it lifts across the OH/TN River Valleys Tuesday, w/the sfc low
crossing the area Tuesday. Despite some temporal differences,
confidence in rain chances are improving for Tuesday, and nudged
pop into high chance range (30-50%). Did not however, follow
SuperBlend into likely pop just yet due to lack of model
consistency. Either way, brief period of clearing expected behind
the system for the middle of next week, w/ high pressure returning
Wednesday. Yet another low pressure system approaches from the
west by next weekend. Highs Tuesday should again be in the low/mid
50s, and moderating to the mid 50s to around 60 by Wednesday.
Morning lows should be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves offshore this morning followed by the return
of high pressure today/tonight. VFR conditions will prevail
through the 12Z TAF period.

Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west through Friday
and settles over the region Saturday and Sunday. VFR and dry
conditions can be expected. There will be a chance for rain
Sunday night and Monday as a weak low pressure moves from the
Lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast States.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect W-NW flow across the waters this morning, with
wind speeds averaging 10-15kt. Surface Low pressure is analyzed
over Western Quebec, with associated sfc cold front now oriented
just offshore at 12z. SCA flags have been lowered for all but the
northern Atlantic Coastal zones through noon, with seas 4-6ft
gradually subsiding below SCA threshold by midday.

W-NW winds at 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean continues behind the front
This aftn through Friday. A modest CAA surge arrives Friday night
into Saturday and this could produce low-end SCA conditions for
the nrn portion of the marine area late Friday night. Winds
diminish over the weekend, as Canadian sfc high pressure builds
into the area from the west through the period. Potential for
winds to increase once again on Monday, as low pressure develops
along the se coast as high pressure rebuilds to the north.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/AJZ
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAM



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