Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ





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