Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND
AND LOW 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W-NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST PRODUCED WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN TANDEM
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON. EXISTING RECORD LOW VALUES WILL BE
CHALLENGED AT EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. H85 TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
TONIGHT AROUND -10 TO -12C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND
1260M. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND SUNRISE THURS MORNING IN THE MID
TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGS. MID-UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
BANKS PORTION OF CURRITUCK COUNTY NC...THE LONE HOLD OUT OF THE
LOCAL FALL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON OVER THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS WEDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER
LOW EJECTS NEWD INTO ERN CANADA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RECOVER AS A
RESULT. THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT BUILDS EWD OVER THE SE
STATES...EXTENDING JUST OFF THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT
WEAK SWLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA...IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS... WILL MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WEDS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS REMAIN -1 TO -2 STD DEV AND WITH VERY LITTLE
MIXING...EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 40S. (-2 STD DEV).
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES.

THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT DROP OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WEDS. THE FRONT
DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS MORNING. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. WARMER WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
20S...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. PUSH OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS FRONTS...WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE COLD AIR REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION. FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THURS WITH MODEST CAA EXPECTED LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT.
WARMER THURS AS SW WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT...RESULTING IN BETTER MIXING. HOWEVER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S STILL RANGE AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL OR -1 STD
DEV.

UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
PUSH INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FRI AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS EJECTS OFF THE NE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FRI. MODEST CAA KNOCKS HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-
UPPER 40S FRI UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH OVRHEAD FRI NIGHT SLIDES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. MSTR FROM
APPRCHG SYSTM TO THE W IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. INCRG
CLDNS SAT NIGHT BUT KEPT THE FCST DRY THRU 12Z SUN. STILL COLD FRI
NIGHT WITH LOWS M20S-L30S. A BIT WRMR SAT. HIGHS M-U40S NORTH TO
U40S-L50S SOUTH. LOWS SAT NIGHT M30S-L40S.

COMPLEX SYSTM TO AFFECT RGN ERLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRES PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT EJECTS NE FROM TEXAS INTO NATIONS MID SCTN SUN...THEN
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT A IT MOVES INTO THE GT LAKES RGN MON.
MEANWHILE...MODELS AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR GETS TRANSPORTED
NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
ALLOWS FOR AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT IVOF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR TEMP WISE SO
DID NOT TRY TO GET TO FANCY WITH TMPS THIS FAR OUT (PSBL IN-SITU
DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN NIGHT/ERLY MON). UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET
AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS (RAIN) SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WITH THE
BULK OF BEST AFTR 18Z SUN. HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U50S NWRN MOST CNTYS
TO U60S SERN SCTNS. NOT MUCH DROP IN TMPS SUN NIGHT AS WRM FRONT
ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS
INTO WRM SCTR. CHC SHWRS AHEAD AND ALONG FROPA MON/MON NIGHT (KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM). WRM WITH HIGHS MON U60S-M70S. LOWS MON
NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE M-U40S PIEDMONT BEHIND FROPA...55-60 SERN
AREAS. SHWRS LINGER ON TUE DUE TO UPR LVL SYSTM. HIGHS U50S-M60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TO PREVAIL DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SLOWLY BACK FROM W/NW TO SW ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN
EASES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVEN AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCNDRY CAA SURGE XPCTD TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES GOING.
LATEST MODEL GUID SUGGEST WINDS BEGIN TO DMNSH LATE TO A POINT BLO
SCA LVL BY 12Z WED ALONG THE CSTL WTRS / RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SND.
THUS...ENDED THE HEADLINES OVR THOSE AREAS AT 09Z. SOME GUSTS TO
ARND 20 KTS CONT OVR THE BAY SO KEPT SCA HEADLINES GOING THRU 12Z.
SEAS / WAVES ALRDY MARGINAL SO EXPECT THESE WILL SUBSIDE BY 12Z.

WINDS BECOME W THEN SW WED NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT CDFRNT. DATA SUGGESTS
ANTHR SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE CHES BAY WED NIGHT AND PSBLY INTO
THU. WILL LET CRNT HEADLINE EXPIRE BEFORE HOISTING THE NEXT SCA.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THEN OVR THE AREA WITH BETTER BOATING CNDTNS
FRI AND SAT. NEXT CHC FRO SCA COMES SUN AHEAD OF COMPLEX SYSTM
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TUE NGT...RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

RIC 18/1936
ORF 25/1959
SBY 17/1936
ECG 21/1959

WED...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE

RIC 37/1951
ORF 38/1951
SBY 35/1951
ECG 39/1951

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR
CLIMATE...






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.