Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211949
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA ON
SUN...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE. THE
GFS TRIES TO FLATTEN/BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN LATE TUE INTO WED AS
IT IS WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DESRT SW TO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF IS GENLY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON SUN...AS FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE SSW
WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WARM FRONT STILL
PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION
LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO
OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS RISE INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND AND
IN THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FROM MON-WED...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR
NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER MAINLY THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON MON...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUE/WED. IF GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...POPS FOR WED WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. SUMMERLIKE WX
RETURNS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S TUE/WED. CONDITIONS WILL
GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPRCHS FROM THE SE.
WINDS ACROSS THE CHES BAY HAVE INCREASED WITH NMRS GUSTS TO 20 KTS
REPORTED ERLY THIS AFTRN. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CRNT CNDTNS.

PRVS DSCN:
LATEST CONDITIONS REFLECT E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AVERAGING 10-15KT. LATEST ANALYSIS FEATURES AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE INLAND OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND DEEP
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. APPEARS THAT SFC LOW
WILL PUSH NE ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN, PUSHING OFFSHORE AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO QUICKLY BACK TO THE NNW. A STRONG SCA SURGE OF WIND WL
ACCOMPANY THE WIND SHIFT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW GO INTO PLACE
AT NOON FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES, MAINLY TO ENCOMPASS E-SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTN BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE NNE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. FOR THE UPPER BAY, BEST SURGE OF WINDS
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SCA HEADLINES ARE
ALSO NOW IN PLACE FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND (STARTING @ 1 PM) AND
COASTAL ZONES (STARTING TONIGHT).

CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT AS
IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB


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