Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...





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