Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251723
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1223 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THE REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
THE REGION FM THE W. EXPECT A SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS
RANGING THRU THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WIND
DIMINISHES UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY REACHING LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY...AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED MIXING/LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN LIMITED MIXING...SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING AT 850MB WILL NOT BE FULLY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
NEVERTHELESS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL FAVOR MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...OR ABOUT +1 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 30S. SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEANING TWD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SAT NGT...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LO PRES AREA START TO APPROACH FM THE W. THAT
LO WILL MOVE ENE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACRS SRN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON NGT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE 40-50%
POPS ACRS THE AREA SUN THRU MON...DIMINISHING TO 30% THEN 20% FOR
MON NGT AND TUE. IF THE LO PRES TRACK IS FARTHER S...THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME WINTRY PCPN WITH THE WAVE LATE SUN NGT
INTO MON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SUN...IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S MON...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S TUE...AND
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S WED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S
TO UPR 40S SUN AND MON MORNGS...IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 TUE
MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WED MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED AS THE FRONT WAS PUSHING
EVERYTHING INLCUDING THE RAIN OFF THE COAST AS OF 12Z. ACROSS THE
REGION EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH ANY
REMAINING MVFR LIMITED TO JUST A FEW SITES CLOSE TO THE COAST.
YESTERDAYS PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS HAVE GIEVN WAY TO VFR. MODEL
X-SECTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT
MORE DRY AIR AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THE
AFTERNOON. WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRES OFFSHORE WILL
SUPRESS MOISTURE FOR A FEW DAYS ALLOWING FOR PROLONGED VFR COND.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 18 TO 26 KT OVER
THE BAY AND ALONG THE COAST. LEAVING SCA`S INTACT FOR THE CHES
BAY/LWR JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SND AND THE CSTL WTRS THRU THU AFTN.
WINDS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WAS JUST CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND PUSH OFFSHORE.
SW TO W WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR MARGINAL SCA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA
AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED A LITTLE EARLY DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF DECREASING WINDS. SEAS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 FT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HI PRES WILL BE RIGHT OVR THE WTRS DURING FRI...THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRES MOVING ENE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
THEN AFFECT THE WATERS SUN AFTN INTO MON NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SEAS MAY BUILD
ALONG THE COAST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JAO





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