Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220148
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
848 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight
and Monday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning and
moves well off the coast by Tuesday night. High pressure becomes
centered over the south central states Wednesday and builds east
into the local area by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest MSAS has high pressure off the coast with a weak mid
level disturbance moving across the region. Key to the overnight
forecast will be the BKN-OVC AC cloud deck assctd with the mid
level system. Models keep most this cloud deck north of the VA-
NC border while thinning it out after midnight as it moves east.
Adjusted sky grids a bit with skies avgg pt to mstly cldy across
the north, mstly clr across the south. Some patchy fog possible
across the south where skies remain mstly clr, but not expected
anything widespread. Lows from the mid-upr 30s across the south
to the upr 30s-lwr 40s across the north.

PVS DSCN:
Sfc high pressure remains off the Mid Atlc coast Mon while low
pressure tracks from the central plains to the wrn Great Lakes.
SSW flow will keep mild wx over the region w/ partly cloudy
conditions. Highs upper 50s/lower 60s near the bay/ocean and on
the ern shore to the mid 60s for most other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain chances increase quickly after midnight Mon night through
Tue morning as main sfc low pressure tracks through the Great lakes
region...pushing its associated cold front across the local
area by Tue aftn. Models remain in good general agreement wrt
timing that front through the FA. Still see potential for at
least isolated tstms in a high shear/low CAPE environment (and
SHERB parameters to >1 from about 09-18Z/Tue across the CWA.
Keeping likely to categorical PoPs for the area during 06Z-
17Z/23 (Tue) then pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00Z/24
(Wed). Highs Tue from the mid 60s N and on the ern shore to the
u60s-l70s SE. Dry cooler Tue night/Wed with lows mainly in the
30s and highs Wed upper 40s N to lower 50s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Medium range period (late week into next weekend) characterized by
building upper level ridge building over the eastern half of the
CONUS. Starting off seasonably cool behind the cool front on
Thursday...then steadily warming as surface high pressure builds
over the area on Friday, sliding offshore late Friday and Saturday.
Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thu/Fri warm back into the 50s
Saturday...and well into the 50s to 60s by Sunday.

Remaining dry through the Saturday night. Rain chances increase by
late next weekend, as an amplifying upper trough over the plains is
forecast to lift across the Plains from the desert southwest
Fri/Sat. Gulf is wide open during this time frame, and expect llvl
moisture to surge north into the area ahead of this feature, with a
period of showers late next weekend. Worth noting that there is good
to excellent agreement among the GEFS/EPS early next week, as both
show temperatures dropping back quickly behind the associated cold
front into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue through the 00Z TAF period.
Satellite imagery showing some mid level clouds to the west
moving east. Sct-bkn 060-100 foot cloud ceilings will
overspread the central portions of the CWA overnight. Generally
light south winds will occur through the night and increase to
10-15 kt through the day Monday. Sfc high pressure settles off
the SE coast on Mon w/ dry conditions continuing.

The next chance for widespread precipitation and flight
restrictions comes mainly after midnight Tue through Tue aftn
with a passing cold front. Gusty SSW winds early Tue shift to
the WNW late in the day. Isolated tstms possible with the front
mainly Tue morning. Dry and VFR conditions then prevail Tue-Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Ridge of surface high pressure will linger over the region through
tonight, and remain in control of the weather thru Monday. Latest
Obs/Buoy reports winds have veered around to the E-SE this aftn 10
kt or less w/ generally benign boating conditions. Surface high will
slide offshore Monday into Monday night, as low pressure moves
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. By Monday
night, winds will begin to increase again out of the south as the
Great Lakes low pushes its associated cold front toward the region.
Wind will increase to 15 to 25 kt from the S-SW prior to daybreak
Tues, continuing thru midday, with seas on the coastal waters
building to 4-6 FT; waves 3-4 ft on the Bay.

SCAs have been hoisted across all waters for Monday night through
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Some gale force gusts possible along and just
ahead of the frontal passage. However, expect that these gusts will
likely be convective in nature. As such, will go ahead with SCA and
mention potential pre-frontal in the MWW. Once the front clears the
area Tuesday afternoon, winds veer around to the west 10-15 kt Tues
night/Wed and then northwest on Thursday. Waves/seas subside to 1-3
ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to midnight
     EST Tuesday night for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...MAM


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