Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 252053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
453 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

High pressure remains offshore the southeast coast through
Monday. A weak frontal boundary drops south to the Delmarva
Sunday morning before lifting back to the north Sunday night
and Monday. A cold front crosses the region late Tuesday through
Tuesday night.


Latest analysis indicates surface high pressure centered well
off the SE CONUS coast, with WSW flow aloft and S to SW at the
sfc. A warm day with temperatures mainly ranging from the mid
70s to around 80 F. Skies are mainly free of low- mid clouds
but a fair amount of high clouds are streaming across the area
so will keep sky cover in grids of 30-50% into this evening
leading to partly cloudy wording for most areas.

Remaining dry/mild overnight ahead of low pres lifting ENE from
the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. A weak sfc boundary
currently over NJ will drift south and settle over the ern
shore by late tonight resulting in light onshore winds and
increasing low clouds. Otherwise...S winds will prevail under
mainly BKN-OVC cirrus farther S. Lows m-u40s on the ern shore
to the l-m50s elsewhere. Will have mention of patchy fog late
(after 5 am) though not anticipating dense fog.

Weakening low pres (sfc-aloft) will continue to track NE the
Great Lakes Sun-Sun night...pushing a weak low level boundary
into/across the FA. Only SLGT forcing aloft w/ this
system...which will likely limit pcpn coverage. Did raise sky
cover to mostly cloudy/cloudy ern shore and partly-mostly cloudy
elsewhere. Upper level shortwave brushes NW zones late and will
have a 20-30% PoPs mainly confined to the NW after 21Z. Highs
Sun to show a strong gradient with temperatures likely stuck in
the 50s in low clouds over the MD eastern shore, with l-m70s
inland (in VA/NE NC).


Lows Sun night in the u40s- around 50F on the ern shore to the
l-m50s elsewhere, with mainly dry conds and partly cloudy skies.

Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA
w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains
invof SE CONUS coast. VRB clouds Mon w/ PoPs mainly aob 20%,
though will have a small area of 30% PoPs across the far N
through midday. Highs should warm a few degrees compared to
Sunday, into the mid-upper 70s over much of VA and interior
northeast NC to the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast and
over the eastern shore. Upper level ridging to keep it mainly
dry and continued warm Mon night with lows in the 50s. Upper
level trough pushes into the area on tue as a sfc cold front
passes by late. continued warm with highs well into the 70s to
near 80 F if rain holds off. There will be a higher chance for
showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs for now
given some continued timing differences between the GFS/GEFS
and slightly slower ECMWF.


Low pressure and assoc cold front will be pushing acrs the
region and off the coast Tue night into early Wed morning,
maintaining slgt chc or chc of showers. Dry wx expected for Wed
thru most of Thu, as high pressure builds in fm the N. Chance
for more showers and possible tstms then Thu night into at
least the first part of Sat, as low pressure and another assoc
cold front approaches and moves acrs the region.

Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Wed, in the mid 50s to mid 60s
Thu and Fri, and in the 60s to lower 70s Sat. Lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s Tue night, in the lower to mid 40s Wed night
and Thu night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night.


High pressure centered offshore will allow for VFR conditions
to continue through this afternoon and the first half of the night.
Sub-VFR conditions will be possible late Saturday night and into
Sunday as a boundary pushes south into northern portions of the
area. Southwest winds, 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots, will
persist through the afternoon and early evening hours before
diminishing around sunset.

MVFR and potentially IFR conditions will be possible early Sunday
morning, mainly after 10Z, at RIC/SBY due to patchy fog/low
ceilings. Conditions should improve by late Sunday morning besides
SBY where low ceilings may linger into Sunday afternoon. A few
showers will be possible by the end of the forecast period with only
brief periods of reduced aviation conditions possible during times
of precipitation.

Outlook: Unsettled weather conditions will persist across the region
through mid-week. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible late overnight
and into the early morning hours primarily due to low ceilings.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible late
Sunday night into Monday and once again late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Periods of reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times
of precipitation.


No headlines in the short term tonight thru Mon. Late this aftn,
high pressure was cntrd well off the Mid Atlc coast. While low
pressure was over Missouri, with a frontal boundary extending
ewrd acrs the OH valley and PA, then off the NJ coast. The
frontal boundary will drop down thru the Lower MD ern shore for
late tonight thru Sun, before lifting back north of that area
Sun night into early Mon morning, as the low lifts NE into the
Great Lakes. Another low pressure area and assoc cold front will
then track fm the srn Plains ENE and acrs the region Mon into
early Wed morning. Other than winds turning to the E or SE for
late tonight thru Sun, expect SW or S winds 15 kt or less this
evening thru Tue.

As low pressure moves out to sea late Tue night thru Wed
morning, winds will turn to the NW then N arnd 10 kt or less.
High pressure will build in fm the N for Wed night and Thu, with
NE winds 15 kt or less.




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