Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

397
FXUS61 KAKQ 170242
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
942 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area through Friday. The high
pushes offshore Saturday with a cold front approaching the
region from the west late. The cold front moves across the area
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Clear this evening with high pressure over the Ohio Valley
building into the Mid-Atlantic as a secondary trough swings
through the area. Temperatures range through the 40s this
evening, with low 50s along the coast. Temperatures will
continue to quickly fall tonight in a dry airmass, with lows
dropping to 30-35F inland and the lower MD eastern shore, to
the low/mid 40s in SE VA-NE NC early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly sunny Friday as dry and cool surface high pressure
builds overhead, sliding offshore Friday night and Saturday.
Not quite as mild Friday, with highs in the low to mid 50s
beneath a decent subsidence inversion. Lows Friday night/early
Sat morning in the mid 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast.
Milder in stronger return flow on Saturday. Compressional
warming out ahead of next (stronger) cold front will drive
maxima well into the 60s...to around 70 across SE VA/NE NC, with
low to mid 60s across northern zones. Brief window for pops
coincident with frontal passage Sat evening (west) into late
Saturday night (east of I-95). Will carry likely PoPs (55-70%)
most areas Sat night. Clouds will gradually increase through the
day, remaining partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Lows Saturday
night in the 40s to low 50s.

Cold front pushes offshore on Sunday. After some lingering
clouds east (morning shower possible over coastal areas),
subsidence behind the front should result in a mostly sunny sky.
Cooler again with highs in the 50s...to near 60 SE coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is expected to build into the region Monday before
moving offshore during the day on Tuesday. Cold air aloft and a
northwest flow will lead to a chilly day on Monday with highs
struggling to climb out of the upper 40s. Lows on Monday night will
dip down into the lower 30s away from the coast and upper 30s to
near 40 at the coast. Temperatures warm on Tuesday due to southerly
flow on the backside of the high. Highs on Tuesday will range from
the upper 50s to the lower 60s. A dry cold front is expected to drop
into the region late Tuesday night. High pressure builds back into
the region Wednesday through Thursday which will allow for
continued cool but dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure prevails over the region tonight and Friday
bringing dry and VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected
through Saturday, before the next cold front approaches the
region Saturday night. Sub-VFR cigs and rain showers are
possible with the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday
morning. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday
allowing for a return to VFR conditions. A gusty NW wind is
possible behind the front on Sunday. High pressure gradually
slides off the Southeast coast Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Current low end gales (gusts to 35 kt out 10-20nm, ending by 12Z) /
high end SCA`s in place tonight as a fairly significant CAA surge
noted behind the cold frontal passage. Seas 5 to 6 feet.

Winds / seas subside as high pressure builds into the area Friday
and Friday night before moving offshore Saturday. Another round of
SCA`s likely as strong cold front crosses the waters late Saturday.
South winds will likely reach SCA levels Saturday afternoon and
evening before shifting to the west then northwest Sunday. Potential
for gale force gusts over the northern coastal waters once again.
Winds diminish Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds back into
the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ635-636-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ633.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/AJZ
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJZ/JDM
MARINE...MPR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.