Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 200718
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
318 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the
end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track
northeast to a position off the southern New England coast later
today, then meander there through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TS Jose is currently located about 200 miles south of Nantucket Mass
and moving NE at 9 mph. The effects on sensible wx continue to pull
slowly ne and away from the area today. In its wake, subsidence
results in a mstly sunny and unseasonably warm day. Watching the
moisture across the KY valley. Latest guidance suggests this
moisture dissipates as it crosses the mts after 18Z. Even the
high res data suggests little if any convection makes it into
the swrn most zones. Kept the forecast dry with a silent 14 pop
across the swrn zones. H85 temps arnd 16C results in highs btwn
85-90 except low-mid 80s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the
fa then dissipates after 00Z across the NC piedmont. Otw, mstly clr
to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s.

Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of
the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the
weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy
nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at
the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS early
next week as the remnant low (Jose) slowly circulates ESE of
New England. Other than periods of SC off the ocean (by the late
in the weekend-early next week) esp at the coast...expect dry wx
with above normal temps.

Highs Sat-Sun in the mid-upr 80s except lwr 80s at the coast. Highs
Mon and Tue in the upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows in the low-mid 60s inland,
upr 60s to around 70F at the coast.

Extended models continue to struggle with the tropical systems into
early next week. It may depend on where Jose`s low tracks which may
eventually help to steer Maria. The latest GFS and to a certain point
the ECMWF has Maria on a similiar track to what Jose did (i.e. moving
north along the eastern seaboard my mid week, but how close to the
coast???). To early for anything specific, but we may be doing this
all over again for Maria next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift northward through the
night allowing for improving aviation conditions. MVFR ceilings
across the northeast (including SBY) will lift over the next
couple of hours, improving to VFR after 08Z. Mainly dry/VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast
period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible over
far western portions of the region late Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will be out of the N/NW around 5 to 10 knots for much of
the forecast period.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the
extended period as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
All Tropical Storm Warnings have been allowed to expire and
replaced with Small Craft Advisories as TS Jose continues to
lift north of the waters. Seas currently avg to 6-8 ft nearshore
and 9-12 ft out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay avg 2-4 ft except up
to 4-5 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Marine conditions then
improve later tonight into Wed as Jose pushes well off to the NE
and weak high pressure builds in from the NW. Sub- SCA
conditions prevail Wed into Thu (except for lingering 5 ft+ seas
on the coastal waters Wed). Seas are expected to start to once
again ramp up Fri into the weekend as swells from distant
Hurricane Maria begin to affect the region so additional SCA or
Small Craft advisory for hazardous seas will likely be needed
for the coastal waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures avg +1.75 to +2.25 ft over the lower Bay,
tapered to only about +0.5 to +1.0 feet in the upper Bay. Will
continue coastal flood advisories for all Bay/river zones
through the upcoming high tide cycle this evening/early Wed am.
Have coastal flood warnings in effect for the zones adjacent to
the Atlantic ocean as water has piled up into some of the inlets
and additional moderate flooding is expected through this
evening`s high tide, though some areas may fall a little shy of
moderate criteria as the departures are starting to fall over
the past 2 hrs. Also, added a coastal flood advisory for the Bay
side of the MD eastern shore from midnight through 6 am with
the expectation that tidal departures will slowly creep up with
as the strong northerly winds subside later tonight and water
remains piled up to some extent in the Bay as waves outside of
the mouth of the Bay remain elevated on Wed. Additional minor
flooding will be possible later wed/Wed night, but given the
uncertainty did not extend the headlines out through this period
yet.

High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas into this
evening due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip
currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters now extended
through Wed as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for 9/20:
 RIC...95 in 2005
 ORF...97 in 1895
 SBY...90 in 1983
 ECG...93 in 1942

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-
     025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ089-090-093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ095>097-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-
     100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ075-077-078-084>086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB/MPR
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS



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