Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...










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