Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281426
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. SIMILAR CONDS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER VERY NICE
LT SEP DAY ON THE WAY TO CONCLUDE FIRST WKND OF FALL. BKN SC INVOF
SE VA SHOULD MIX OUT NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS...WHILE CI CONTS TO
SPREAD NE INTO THE RGN FM THE WSW. THAT CI WILL BE SPREADING
GRADUALLY OVR THE FA THIS AFTN...WHILE SOME INCRS IN CLDS OCCURS
INVOF CSTL FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. CONDS AVG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U70S
NR THE CST TO 80 TO 85F INLAND. WNDS RMNG LGT/VRB INLAND...MNLY NE
AT THE CST (SPEEDS ABOUT 5 MPH LWR THAN YESTERDAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH IN THE
EVENING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS 55-60 F MOST AREAS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON
AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE
RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY
SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS
BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE
(20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD
WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS).

MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE
COAST AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. EVEN IN THE SE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT
(MAINLY 0.25" OR LESS). LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FAR NW TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE
DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A CHC POP ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE).
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR-
MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO
DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW
PUSHING EAST ACRS PA/NJ ON WED WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. HIGHEST POPS WILL
TEND TO STAY NE OFFSHORE WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT ULTIMATELY, POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED.
SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS
MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH
ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES...STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS STATES ESE
INTO THE NE U.S. AND NRN MID ATLC EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE
EWRD AND OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. ENUF LO LVL MOIST WILL STILL
PRODUCE PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/ECG
AND POSSIBLY SBY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO MON MORNG ACRS THE AREA. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...AND COULD BRING
LWR CIGS/VSBYS AND A CHC FOR RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT...AND SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND
OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNG...WILL
BECOME E OR SE OR VRBL TNGT...THEN BECOME NNE ARND 10 KT OR LESS ON
MON. STRONGER NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU THU...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND HI PRES TRIES TO BLD S FM
ERN CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT INTO THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG















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