Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM S MD
TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. SCT SHRAS
WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SHOVED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE
REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN SHORE. ALSO NOTING SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE ALBEMARLE AND INTO FAR SE
VA THIS MORNING. THE FOG REMAINS RATHER SPARSE PER VDOT CAMERAS,
AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD EAST FROM THE OH VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, PW VALUES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS REPRESENT VALUES THAT ARE ~1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID
ON ANY SMALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA
ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE
NC) THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE AND OUR GOING FORECAST. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FORECAST MAXIMA TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SECTIONS UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



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