Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR



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