Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240651

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
151 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

High pressure remains well offshore tonight as low pressure
slides off the Florida Peninsula. On Friday, the region will
remain in between a cold front approaching from the west and low
pressure off the southeast coast. The front crosses the local
area late Saturday, with high pressure returning for Sunday.


     845 pm update...earlier forecast in good shape overall. 01Z
temps within a few degrees of overnight lows across the SE
quarter of the CWA, as skies are clear, and winds have become
calm. Have thus lowered mins a couple degrees most of the area
away from the water, as temps should stabilize or perhaps rise a
little overnight, as a weak southerly flow develops. Tweaked
hourly temps as well due to the above. Also bumped up POPs
about 10 percent across NE NC, where some hi-res guidance
suggests spotty showers possible after 06Z. However, POPs remain
below slight chance levels, as even hi-res guidance has been
somewhat inconsistent. Rest of forecast looks good, including
location and timing of patchy fog.

     Previous Discussion...Latest sfc analysis indicating sfc low
pressure off the east coast of Florida, with a weak/inverted
sfc trough extending NNE up to the NC coast. Split flow aloft
making for relatively light winds/weak steering flow aloft. Very
warm today with readings near record highs in the 70s (see
climate section below). Fairly high dew pts in the 50s and a
light southerly flow have allowed for some developing cumulus
inland with skies averaging partly to mostly sunny.

Expect dry weather and a mild night tngt (lows in the 50s) with
high pres staying offshore and low pres passing well south of
the local area. With decent low-level moisture and light winds,
could see some patchy fog develop, especially across interior
southeast VA and northeast NC, though will mention patchy fog
into south central and central VA as well.

Conditions Fri will be similar to those of today, with southerly
flow and temps climbing into the mid-upper 70s inland and in the
mid 60s to lower 70s at the coast (cooler here with winds
shifting a bit more to SE rather than SSW). There may be a
little more in the way of cloud cover but do not anticipate any
rain with minimal forcing. Again see climate section below for
the day`s records (which will be more difficult to break as they
are warmer than today).


Warm and partly cloudy Fri night with lows in the 50s to
possibly around 60 F in the warmest locales.

Latest 12z/23 models remain in good agreement handling a cold
front moving east from the OH Valley Fri night, reaching the
Appalachians Sat morning, and pushing through the CWA Sat aftn
to early evening. Mid/upper level trough progged to be located
over the western Great lakes at 12Z/Sat...and moving NE to
Ontario through the day. Potent mid level shortwave looks to
become somewhat sheared out as it crosses the Mtns and moves
through the local area Sat aftn/evening, with some dry slotting
moving in rather quickly late Sat aftn/Sat evening from the SW.
SPC day 3 outlook highlights northern 1/2 of the CWA in a
marginal risk for for severe thunderstorms in association with
a low CAPE/high shear environment. Main threat would be damaging
wind gusts, but attm there is uncertainty over coverage of
convection due to the potential dry slot. High temps Sat will
range from the upper 70s southeast to the lower 70s N and NW
where precip will arrive earlier and be of higher coverage.
Lingered a chc for showers into the early evening near the cost,
otherwise turning sharply colder Sat night with lows in the 30s
inland to lower 40s southeast zones. Dry/mostly sunny and much
cooler Sunday with breezy WNW winds diminishing by mid aftn from
SW to NE as high pressure builds in from the WSW. Highs will
actually be close to normal for a change, ranging from the upper
50s south to the lower 50s across the NE. Very dry aftn with dew
pts into the teens and RH values mainly 20-25%, though winds may
diminish enough to keep Fire Wx threat from being too bad.


Sfc hi pres drifts over the FA Sun night...resulting in mainly
SKC and chilly conditions. Quick moving low pressure tracks from
the OH Valley Mon across the FA Mon night w/ increasing
cloudiness and PoPs (30-50%). Another warm up begins Tue and
continues through Wed as sfc hi pres sets up off the coast...and
return S flow develops. Mild Tue w/ a frontal boundary lingering
over (srn) portions of the FA (keeping VRB clouds/Mostly cloudy
conditions w/ PoPs 25-45%. A warm front lifting through the FA
Tue night/early Wed may clip the region w/ clouds and low PoPs
(10-20%). Warm/possibly breezy Wed ahead of approaching cold
front from the W. Models push that front through the region late
Wed/Wed night w/ another potential for at least SCT RASH.
Drying/cooler by Thu.

Lows Sun night from the l30s inland to the u30s-around 40F SE.
Highs Mon in the 55-60F on the eastern shore to the l-m60s
elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the m40s NW to the l50s SE. Highs
Tue in the u50s-l60s on the eastern shore to the u60s-l70s
elsewhere. Low Tue night mainly in the l-m50s. Highs Wed in the
60s on the eastern shore to the 70s elsewhere. Highs Thu mainly
from 55-60F.


VFR conditions to start off the 06Z TAF period. Still expecting
fog development this morning, but may not be that widespread as
there continues to be some light wind. Nonetheless there`s still
mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s. A brief period of
IFR fog is psbl, especially away from the coast. Fog is
expected to dissipate generally after 12-14Z and we will return
to VFR conditions. Winds will remain light out of the SE to S
through this afternoon.

Outlook: Besides early morning fog and stratus, expect mainly VFR
conditions through early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop with a cold front Saturday afternoon and into
early evening. Dry/VFR conditions return for Sunday as surface high
pressure builds into the region. Winds will be gusty out of the WNW
at times on Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions will once again be possible
late Monday and into Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches
from the west.


Sfc hi pres will remain centered well off the Mid-Atlantic
coast through Fri as lo pres meanders off the FL coast...and
nrn stream energy remains well N of the region from the Great
Lakes through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Sfc hi pres will slide
farther offshore Fri night into Sat as a cold front pushes from
the Ohio Valley Fri night then ewd across the mountains
Sat. Meanwhile, the srn stream low will gradually lift newd
well off the SE coast. A SSE wind will remain aob 15kt through
Fri night/Sat morning...may increase a few kt Saturday due to a
tightening pressure gradient...but likely to remain sub-SCA.
Seas will generally be 2-3 ft through Fri...before increasing
to 3-5 ft Fri night into Sat as long period swell arrives from
the low offshore. Waves in the Ches Bay will average 1-2 ft. The
cold front will cross the coast Sat evening followed by modest
CAA and strong sfc pres rises. SCAs are likely Sat night into
Sunday morning with a NW wind reaching 15-25 kt with gusts to
30kt and 4-6 ft seas/3-4 ft waves. The wind diminishes Sun
afternoon as sfc hi pres builds into the mid-Atlantic region.
Sfc hi pres quickly pushes offshore Sun night into Mon w/ the
wind becoming S.


Record high of 75 set today for Richmond which tied the record
of 75 set in 1985. Also record high for Salisbury set today at
74 which tied the old record of 74 in 1943.

Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record
given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs
are listed below for today- Sat, with the top 3 warmest
February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF to be
the 2ns warmest, ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest. SBY
looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest.

Daily Record Highs for Today 2/23, Friday 2/24 and Saturday 2/25:

       2/23           2/24       2/25

RIC   75 in 1985    82 in 1985   83 in 1930
ORF   79 in 1975    82 in 2012    81 in 1930
SBY   74 in 1943    77 in 2012    80 in 1930
ECG   77 in 1975    79 in 1985    77 in 1985

Warmest February`s on record (average temps):

* RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
* 1) 49.9 (1890)
* 2) 48.5 (1976)
* 3) 48.1 (1884)

* ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
* 1) 52.4 (1890)
* 2) 50.5 (1909)
* 3) 50.1 (1990)

* SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest)
* 1) 46.1 (1976)
* 2) 45.8 (1984)
* 3) 45.7 (1925)

* ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest)
* 1) 52.1 (1990)
* 2) 51.8 (1939)
* 3) 50.3 (1976)


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.


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