Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
729 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND REMAINS
STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS MARKED BY
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH PASSING SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND AROUND 14Z.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE AND
THE LOWER VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN INDICATED.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY AROUND 15Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF
THE DAY MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. REMOVED LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY
THAT WERE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.

THE FRONT IS SHALLOW IN NATURE AND STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
BELOW 3K FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. OVERALL...A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED. THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES TOWARD MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPR 60S IN NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

A SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA.
A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
IN THE MORNING REACHING THE COAST DURING THE AFTN. CHANCES FOR PCPN
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING.

ALSO ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. PLACED A CHANCE FOR TSTMS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL LOWER A BIT RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S NORTH TO THE
UPR 60S TOWARD THE SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE THE TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
GIVEN THE FORECASTED UPR LVL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG IT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BASICALLY KEEPING CLOUDS AND PERIODIC CHCS FOR RAIN. FRONTAL BNDRY
MAY ACTUALLY SNAKE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED THUNDER ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA THEN. CLOUDS / PCPN KEEPS
TMPS BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S. LOWS U50S-U60S.

TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND ERLY WED AS THE
1020MB CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS EAST. GUID WANTS TO STALL THIS BNDRY
IVOF THE GULF STREAM ONCE AGAIN KEEPING ADDNTL CLOUDINESS AND SCT
SHWRS ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COASTAL SECTIONS WED INTO THU. COOLER
WITH HIGH WED / THU 70-75. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT PHF AND ORF...A RESULT OF
THE INVERSION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THEM IN THE FCST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ORF AND ECG. IFR CIGS WILL BE PSBL AT
ECG. ALTHOUGH IFR IS INDICATED FOR ECG...NAM MOS APPEARS TO HAVE
CEILINGS TOO LOW. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT
BY 00Z FRIDAY EVENING. N/NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS
FRIDAY MORNING AT ORF AND ECG. AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY AFFECTING FAR SRN PORTIONS (ECG
POSSIBLY ORF).

OUTLOOK...THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY IN NE NC WITH WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF PCPN AND POSSIBLE MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS
SAT/SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW. SOME IMPROVING IS PSBL SUNDAY BUT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT CONTS TO PROGRESS S THROUGH THE WTRS THROUGH EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS...W/ WNDS BECOMING N. SURGE BEGINNING TO SPREAD S THROUGH FAR
NRN WTRS ON THE OCN/BAY AND STILL XPCG THAT SURGE TO CONT S THROUGH
THE MRNG HRS. KEEPING SCAS ON THE BAY/LWR JAMES RIVER FOR 15-20 KT.
THE INCRS IN SPDS DIMINISHES FM N TO S OVR THE WTRS IN THE AFTN/EVE
HRS...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR SRN OCN WTRS FOR PSBL RISE OF SEAS TO
ABT 5 FT FOR A SHORT PD LTR TDA...THOUGH PUSH S OF THE COOLER/DRIER
AMS DIMINISHES BY EVE/TNGT. SFC HI PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG BY
SAT...BRINGING CONTD ONSHORE WNDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHES LO PRES
SYS AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT. THAT SYS CROSSES THE WTRS SAT EVE...W/
PTNTLLY AN EVEN STRONGER NLY SURGE IN ITS WAKE INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB






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