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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 141410
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETREATS
TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN VA/MD COASTS AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. VORT MAX SWINGING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO FURTHER
INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX DIVING SE ACROSS WESTERN PA
AND WV. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP LAYER NNW FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...A 998MB
LOW IS ANALYZED ~250NM ENE OF ATLANTIC CITY WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ALIGNED NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF 08Z. A 1023MB HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OFF THE COAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. FARTHER
WEST...THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME BKN
(MOSTLY CLOUDY) BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
ALONG WITH 200-400 J/KG OF MLCAPE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. 20-30 POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY N OF I-64 AND E OF I-95. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 7-10C BY 18Z AND ONLY RECOVER TO 10-12C BY
00Z...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 70S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
VA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREAT
LAKES HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FLATTENING AND SHUNTING UPPER
RIDGING EASTWARD.

THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL (LOW TO MID 80S) AFTER RATHER PLEASANT
MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RISE
SUNDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MUCH OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD BE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HI PRES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LEADING
TO WARM TEMPS AND SWLY FLOW ON AVG OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ARND FOR SUN NGT THRU LATE TUE/TUE
NGT...AS A COUPLE OF TROFS AFFECT THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MOVING THRU LATE TUE/TUE NGT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO THE REGION
DURING WED AND THU. LOW TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S
TO LWR 70S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
APART FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SPOTTY SHRAS ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF KSBY THROUGH 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES,
EXPECT GUSTY N-NW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, DIMINISHING LATE.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT/SUN. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS INTO THIS AFTN/EVE. IN THE
WAKE OF LAST EVENING`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE W AND NW BETWEEN 15-25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THRU LATE MORNING WHILE MAINTAINING
THE SAME SPEEDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTN...EXPECT A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS
THROUGH SUNSET. ALL SCA`S WILL LIKELY COME DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.

RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT
IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING WAS DROPPED FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE BLACKWATER AT FRANKLIN CONTINUES, WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST SHOWING A GRADUAL DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/DAP
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...