Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291822
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
222 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY. A
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WAS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW YORK STATE WAS RIDGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND OVER
CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE PIEDMONT OF FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. RADAR INDICATED
THAT LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITH SOME OF THE
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS NORTH. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE CURRENT CONVECTION AND WEAK LIFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY BUT
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO CHESAPEAKE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30 PERCENT POPS OVER NORTH CAROLINA WEST OF
ELIZABETH CITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW PORTIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. READINGS WILL HOLD IN THE 80 TO 83 RANGE ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY. AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE OF HUMIDITY BEGINNING SATURDAY. DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND
REMAIN NEAR THOSE LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

DESPITE INSTABILITY...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAVE LESS
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIFT ON SATURDAY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS ARE
FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT. HAVE 40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S TOWARD THE COAST AND THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND
SUNDAY WITH MID 80S AT THE SHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND
70 DEGREE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL TEND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENLY RUN ABOUT 5 F ABOVE AVG WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER/MID 70S. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS TO THE AREA FOR LABOR DAY...WILL CARRY 40%
POPS THROUGHOUT...FOLLOWED BY POPS ONLY ~20% ON TUE IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. TUE
LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY..WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING ABOVE 90 F AND
PERHAPS INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SOMEWHAT HIGH POPS IS SLATED FOR TUE EVENING/TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

BY LATE WED-THU...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC
FORECAST DOES PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY
COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ON
THU. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS WED-THU ACRS THE SOUTH (20-30%) WITH
GENLY A DRY FORECAST ACRS THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CAROLINAS BACK INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE SKC OR MOSTLY
SO AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT SBY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FARTHER SOUTH, SOME SCT-BKN CU/SC PERSISTS FROM SE VA/NE NC (INVOF
ORF/ECG) BACK TO JUST WEST OF KGSO. EXPECT MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AND WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHRAS ARE
POSSIBLE, EXPECT TERMINALS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

PERSISTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY YIELD A
RE-OCCURANCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PIEDMONT, WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS DROPS CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE AT
RIC/PHF/ECG...AND EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF TEMPO IFR CIGS AFTER
09Z OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDS FOR NOW, WITH A
SCATTERED DECK JUST ABOVE 1KFT. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED, HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY SHRAS OVERNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD
BE LOW, SO WILL HOLD OUT OF THE TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE,
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN NY THIS MORNING WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT NOW STALLED OVER NC HAS ALLOWED THE WINDS TO TURN
NE THIS MORNING OVER THE WATERS. BUT THE SEAS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO
2 - 4 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO RACE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS OVER
THE BAY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT. AS THE HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE COAST TODAY...WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST AND THEN SE ON SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS.

BY SUNDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND TAKE THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL TURN
THE WINDS TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT WINDS
SPEED REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WAVES
2 - 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ZONES AND 1-2 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...ESS







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