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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
819 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC...AND THE ONLY
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA BEACH COAST. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECT TO DIE OUT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE FA
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING DOWN INTO FAR NW COUNTIES
ATTM FROM THE NORTH.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER IF ANY
OBSERVATION SITES REPORT VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 7 STATUTE
MILES...THE OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE HAZE THAN FOG/MIST
(VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT). TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC THIS
EVENING. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FORMATION OF IFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CIGS BECOMING IFR AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KECG BETWEEN 06-08Z WED MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
14-15Z. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR KECG OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES LATE FRIDAY AND BEYOND
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...MPR