Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241110 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 710 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary over the nrn Mid Atlc. Aloft, shortwave energy is approaching fm the nw within a weak mid-level shortwave trough. This will help to finally drive the aforementioned front s thru the region. Dry conds expected most areas this morn; did carry a 20% pop with the atm remaining quite moist. For this aftn, SPC continues to highlight the entire area aside fm the Nrn Neck and Lwr Ern Shore in a slight risk for severe wx. Main inhibitors are cloud cover and questionable instability as the front drops s and sfc flow bcms nely. However, svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to ~40 kt are favorable should any storms develop. Areal coverage of convection also looks problematic...current forecast will call for pops ranging fm 30% ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont. As with previous days this week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps...highs ranging thru the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr 70s se. High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow. Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise, ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this eveng. OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters. W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft. The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area (though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... All Flood advisories have expired, with rainfall totals on the order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the E VA Piedmont over the past 24 hours, with heavier rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters. Areas of minor river flooding will be possible late tonight into the weekend, most notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham. Will continue to monitor river levels at these and other sites for possible flood warnings over the next 12-24 hours && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAM HYDROLOGY...

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