Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 241110
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
710 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary over the nrn Mid
Atlc. Aloft, shortwave energy is approaching fm the nw within a
weak mid-level shortwave trough. This will help to finally drive
the aforementioned front s thru the region. Dry conds expected
most areas this morn; did carry a 20% pop with the atm remaining
quite moist. For this aftn, SPC continues to highlight the entire
area aside fm the Nrn Neck and Lwr Ern Shore in a slight risk for
severe wx. Main inhibitors are cloud cover and questionable
instability as the front drops s and sfc flow bcms nely. However,
svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to ~40 kt are favorable
should any storms develop. Areal coverage of convection also looks
problematic...current forecast will call for pops ranging fm 30%
ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont. As with previous days this
week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps...highs ranging thru the
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.
High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.
Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru
the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all
terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that
point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise,
ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at
ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this
OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as
high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.
-- Changed Discussion --Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.
The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
All Flood advisories have expired, with rainfall totals on the
order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the E VA Piedmont over the past 24
hours, with heavier rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters.
Areas of minor river flooding will be possible late tonight into
the weekend, most notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham.
Will continue to monitor river levels at these and other sites for
possible flood warnings over the next 12-24 hours