Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 031024 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT M70S BEACH AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE, MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING, WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S. BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. && .MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS. 1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD

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