Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300825 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 425 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75 TO 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW. HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX HOURS AT ANY LOCATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER 09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS. OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE...
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LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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