Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 062018 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 318 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A complex area of low pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight with high pressure building in from the west Wednesday. A strong cold front crosses the region Thursday. Canadian high pressure builds into the area for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Latest MSAS places the coastal low near ILM with the upper level trof just west of the mts. Radar has widespread light to ocnl mdt rain moving NE across the region although a punch of mid level dry air has held down rainfall amounts. Models have the coastal low becoming the main synoptic feature with a track NE along the Outer Banks this evening then moving east out into the Vacapes and pulling away from the coast after midnight. Meanwhile, high res data tracks the upper level system and associated (light/mdt) pcpn SW-NE across the area late afternoon and evening with pcpn tapering off to some drizzle before ending SW-NE after midnight as the lift shifts offshore. Thus, will continue to carry categorical pops into the evening with pops ramping down late this evening across the west and after midnight over the east. Areas of fog will be noted due to the abundant low level moisture. Additional qpf between 1/10th to 1/2 in possible. Lows range from the mid 30s NW to upr 40s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Weak high pressure builds across the region Wed. Downsloping flow will aid to dry the column out. Thus, morning clouds should give way to a pt to mstly sunny afternoon. Near seasonable temperatures with highs in the mid 50`s. Anomalous northern stream low builds into southeast Canada Wed night as the associated trough digs into the eastern US. A strong, fast moving cold front will reach the central Appalachians by late Wed night. Clouds increase, but dry conditions expected thru 12Z Thurs. Lows 35 to 40. Models continue to push the strong cold front across the area Thurs as the trough axis lags behind. Moisture will be limited with PW`s at or below three quarters of an inch. While the front is progged to outrun the best height falls, models continue to show a line of showers along the boundary. Will maintain low chance pops, with the focus for shwrs shifting to the eastern half of the fa Thurs aftrn. Highs in the 50s. Dry and colder Thurs night and Fri as Canadian high pressure builds east. Lows Thurs night in the mid-upr 20s except lwr30s along thecoast. Highs Fri in the lwr 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Long term period starts off Fri night/Sat with dry weather as sfc high pressure builds directly over the Mid Atlc. Main story in the extended will be cold temps, with lows in the low/mid 20s Fri night and Sat night. High temps Fri and Sat avg in the low 40s both days. Next chance of pcpn arrives Sun night/Mon with an approaching cold front, with the best chance of rain being during the day Mon based on the 12Z GFS/ECMWF (40% pops). High temps Mon in the mid/upr 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread IFR conditions in both rain/fog continue as a complex area of low pressure tracks across the region through 00Z. These conditions remain into the evening but the rain tapers off to drizzle then ends SW-NE through the night as the low pulls further offshore. However, plenty of lo level moisture remains for after 06Z for widespread ST and patchy fog through 12Z. Slowly improving conditions expected Wed morning as high pressur builds into the area from the west. Winds become gusty at the coast 15-25 kts as the coastal low tracks across the NC/VA coastal waters. OUTLOOK...A strong cold front impacts the area on Thursday, with only a quick chance for showers Thursday afternoon. High pressure returns Friday into the weekend. && .MARINE...
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Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure developing near the NC coast with another area of low pressure over the OH Valley. The former low will strengthen this eveng/tonight as it pushes off the coast. Expect strong SCA conditions over at least the Bay and ocean with this system, with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Will maintain the SCA for now. Seas may reach 7-9 ft out 20 nm. Winds/waves/seas then drop during the day Wed as weak high pressure builds into the area. Sca conditions may linger until Wed eveng over the ocean with 5 ft seas continuing. A strong cold front then pushes across the waters Thu, with at least strong SCA conditions expected Thu night through Fri night. Sub-SCA conditions return over the weekend.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB/MPR MARINE...MAS

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