Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181854 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 254 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THAT LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A COOL AFTN ACRS THE FA W/ VRB CLDS. TOUGH TO FIND EXACT COVERAGE OF LO LVL CLDNS UNDER THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING INTO THE FA FM THE SW. SFC OBS SHOWING THAT THE BULK OF THE SC RMNS RIGHT AT THE CST. FOR TNGT...CLDNS WILL CONT TO SPREAD NE FM THE ERN GULF STATES AS SFC LO PRES SLOLY TRACKS ACRS N FL. WATCHING LGT RA BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH FAR WRN/SCNTRL NC SO FAR THIS AFTN...AND THAT RA WILL CONT TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVE HRS. MDLS (NAM/GFS) DIFFER ON HOW FAR NNE THE PCPN SHIELD GETS OVRNGT. 12Z/18 ECMWF LEANS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AS DOES CURRENT FCST. WILL BLEND ALL THREE FOR TNGT...IN BRINGING SLGT CHC-CHC POPS N OF THE VA-NC MNLY AFT MDNGT AND N TO ABT RIC BY LT TNGT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS AFT MDNGT FOR PORTIONS OF NE NC. LO TEMPS MNLY FM THE L/M40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WILL CONT W/ A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF AND CURRENT FCST FOR PCPN COVERAGE ON SAT INTO SUN AS LO PRES IS SLO TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS CST. AFT SAT MRNG...XPCG PCPN SHIELD TO GRADUALLY SINK S INTO SUN AS SFC HI PRES FM ERN CANADA BEGINS TO BUILD S. GENLY KEPT AREAS N OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT BUT W/ MSTLY CLDY CONDS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. ACRS SRN VA INTO NE NC WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHEST IN NE NC)...THOUGH TRENDING DOWN FM SAT AFTN INTO SUN. SGFNT AMT OF CLDNS XPCD TO RMN OVR MNLY SE VA/NE NC WELL INTO SUN...WHILE ELSW BECOMES P/MSNY. ONSHORE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY NR/AT THE CST. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M50S AT THE CST TO ARND 60F ACRS INTR SE VA/NE NC...AND THE M60S WELL INLAND N AND NW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS SUN FM 55 TO 60F AT THE CST TO THE M/U60S INLAND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN ARE PERSISTING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST VA COAST REACHING BOTH PHF AND ORF. ONCE INLAND JUST A FEW MILES THE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR. SBY...RIC AND ECG WERE VFR AS OF 18Z AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT ORF AND PHF MAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IS LIMITING HEATING AND MIXING WHICH COULD ALLOW THE NARROW BAND OF MVFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST IS WILL MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MORE MID LEVEL AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW LATER THIS EVENING AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. MODEL DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WHICH SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST VA...BUT ALL SUGGEST AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT ECG BEFORE DAYBREAK LASTING UNTIL AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN PHF. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHF...ORF AND ECG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND (633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...JAO MARINE...TMG

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