Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011411 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1011 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOST OF THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF WITH PLNTLY OF ST / SC LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...LGHT SHWR ACTIVITY SHOWING SIGNS OF DSPTG AS THEY MOVE E ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. ASSCTD S/W XPCTD TO MOVE OFFSHORE NXT FEW HRS AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RGN. KEPT LOW POP ACROSS NERN AREAS NEXT FEW HRS AS SYSTM MOVES OFF THE COAST. LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY SPARK OFF AN AFTRN SHWR BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE ARND DEPARTING S/W. BCMG PT SUNNY MOST AREAS. HIGHS 75-80. PVS DSCN: E-NE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TNGT MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT W/ CHCS OF ACCUMULATING PCPN QUITE LOW, WL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. WENT WITH WARMER ENVELOPE OF NAM GUIDANCE FOR MINIMA TNGT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY U50S TO L60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHC POP THU MORNING AS LOW STRATUS/DZ ONCE AGAIN SCOURS OUT. THEREAFTER, EXPECT VRB CLDS AND DRY WX THU. GGEM AND DOWNSCALE NAM DO CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING, BUT LIFT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHRAS/SPRINKLES, ORIENTED MAINLY WEST OF I-95. ONCE AGAIN, HV OPTED TO GO DRY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80. AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DIG E-SE ACROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/TN VLY THU NGT AND FRIDAY. E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCRSG MOISTURE AND OVC CONDITIONS THU NGT AND FRIDAY AND SOME ISOLD SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING STRONG CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF THE FA FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING, SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...W/ SHOWER CHANCES TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIMIT SHRA CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY 70-75. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AS OF 01/0730Z ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF SCNTRL VA FROM GENERALLY KAKQ-KFKN-KEMV...WHERE AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS OF 5-10KT AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSHPERE MIXED...THUS PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE 01/1300-1400Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY BREAKS IN STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTN. LATE DAY CLEARING IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNSET...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT (CIGS ABOVE 8 KFT AGL). DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. && .MARINE... N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD

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