Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 251421
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1021 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Current MSAS indicating the frontal boundary now south of the
Albemarle Sound, with a light N/NE flow prevailing. Radar trends
are showing isolated showers over srn VA/ne NC and will keep this
in the grids through 16Z. Clouds beginning to sct out across the
lwr MD ern shore with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. Still expect
a slow clearing trend from the north through the aftrn.
Will maintain a slight chc for aftn tstms over far southern VA
and interior ne NC where some minimal CAPES to ~500 J/Kg persist.
High temperatures today will be greatly affected by the sky cover
and the N/NE flow. Have gone with highs mainly ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest along the immediate coast.
For tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the
far south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas
overnight. Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure
ridges SSW from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s most areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds
linger today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas
has little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.
Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.
Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolina`s during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.
A cold front will push s of the waters and down thru the Carolina`s
during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds 10 to 20 kt to
develop ovr the area. Waves will bld to 2 to 3 ft ovr the Ches Bay
and Seas will bld to 3 to 4 ft ovr the cstl waters. Winds will
diminish on Sun, as the high blds acrs the area, then lee
troughiness will allow for the winds to turn s-sw on Mon into
Tue before the next cold front passes through Tue Night into Wed
morng. Overall, the expectation is that conditions will remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days.
-- Changed Discussion --River Flood Warning continues for the James River at Bremo Bluff
with the water level now above flood stage. Updated forecast to
have a later and higher crest this afternoon before dropping back
below flood stage this evening. See FLSAKQ for details.
The latest guid has Richmond Westham cresting about 1/2 foot below
flood stage Sunday morning. Will cont to monitor the level but a
flood warning is not expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").