Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 262100 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT- WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC). LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM (CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR 09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE N/NE DURING THE AFTN. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS AFFECTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS. N WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND HIGHER AT ORF AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS BACK TO THE N/NW. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC. OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NO SGFNT PCPN IS FORECAST. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MD ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS...WITH MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BACK TO THE NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ERN VA RIVERS...WHERE OBSERVED GUSTS STILL RANGE FROM 20-25 KT. WITH THE LOW STILL LIFTING/DEEPENING OFFSHORE...AND MODELS BACKING THE WINDS TOO FAST...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 7 PM. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU THIS EVENING/MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>634-654- 656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM/SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.