Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021944 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT 01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG. ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE U80S-L90S. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN) DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO L80S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE NC.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY 1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS. OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. && .MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...WRS MARINE...MAS

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