Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172333
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
733 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop through the region tonight bringing in
cooler air for the start of the work week. A stronger cold
front will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday morning. High
pressure builds in for mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...
Cold front is only making slow SE progress so far this evening.
Small chances for showers across far SE VA and NE NC later
tonight along and just west of the cold front as some additional
moisture advects northward. However, HREF probs generally
20-30% so will simply go with isolated or scattered showers late
tonight in this region. Otherwise, will keep partly to mostly
cloudy and dry for the reminder of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...
Behind the cold front it will be cooler on Monday with generally
decreasing clouds. The main trough aloft currently over the upper
Great Lakes will dig into the middle Atlantic on Monday night.
Again, there may be just enough moisture for a isolated to scattered
showers in SE VA/NE NC Monday night, but otherwise it will stay dry.
Much colder though for Monday and especially Tuesday as 850mb
temps drop to nearly -10c by Tuesday morning. Highs will be in
the mid 50s to around 60 on Monday with low to mid 50s on
Tuesday. Winds will turn to the NW tonight and then become a
little gusty tomorrow with a few gusts up to 20 mph especially
close to the coast. Perhaps gustier Mon night and especially
Tuesday as the upper short wave aloft moves through. Would not
be shocked to see gusts to 20-30 mph on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...
The middle of the week generally looks quiet. Colder temps from Mon
and Tuesday rebound quickly. Wednesday will be the warmest day of
the week (near normal) most likely ahead of a dry cold front which
will move through Wed night. Highs will be well into the 60s for
most areas on Wednesday.
Behind this cold front, models quickly diverge on the southern
stream system for the weekend. The 00z and 06z GFS are faster and
further west, leading to rain moving into the area as early as
Friday, with low pressure tracking right along the coast. Meanwhile,
the ECMWF and the associated AIFS is slower and further east, with
the best rainfall confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance shows
those solutions and everything in between. In summary, the
confidence in the rainfall chances for next weekend are lower
than usual. There seems to be a model consensus of the best
probability of precip being on Saturday and across east/SE VA
and NE NE. Have opted to maintain chance pops across the entire
region starting Friday night and maintaining those through
Saturday night. Have kept a slight chance of rain in the
forecast for Sunday as well although the ECMWF solution would be
quite wet for Sunday (even though the associated AIFS is dry).
Guidance spread in guidance is quite large for the weekend owing to
the uncertainty of the evolution of the weekend system. NBM
consensus suggests highs to stay below normal from Thu-Sun, but
the range is generally from the low/mid 50s-mid 60s so the
temperature forecast for the weekend remains an uncertain one as
well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...
VFR conditions prevail this evening across the region. A cold
front will drop south and east tonight with BKN/OVC CIGs around
5-6kft. A few showers are possible but with a very dry sub-cloud
layer, not much is expected to make it to the surface. SW winds
become NW behind the frontal passage, generally 5-10 kt tonight,
increasing to ~10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by mid morning as deep
mixing sets up.
Outlook...A few showers possible Mon night in SE VA/NE NC, but
flight restrictions not expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected through the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...
Relatively quiet conditions over the waters this aftn w/ the area in
between two cold fronts. Winds are from the W/WSW at ~10 kt, though
efficient mixing over land areas is allowing some higher gusts
(up to 20 kt) to spill into area rivers and near the land/water
interface of the bay and ocean. Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1 ft
or less. Secondary cold front crosses the area this evening,
turning the winds to the NNW or N. There is likely to be a
relatively quick surge where winds increase to 15-20 kt in the
Chesapeake Bay with higher gusts. Waves of 2-3 ft expected in
the bay with seas remaining around 3 ft. While local wind probs
are hovering just under 50% for 18 kt sustained winds in the
bay, these events tend to overperform by a few knots. So, have
raised SCAs from 6z-15z Mon for all of the bay zones. NW winds
briefly subside to 10-15 kt Mon aftn before quickly increasing
again Mon night in response to a reinforcing shot of CAA.
Widespread SCAs are likely for all waters for this event through
early Tue aftn with NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts to ~30 kt.
Seas also increase to 4-6 ft, perhaps to 7 ft out 20 nm. Will
let the current event SCA expire tomorrow/Mon morning before any
additional headlines are raised.
From Tue aftn through Wed, generally sub-SCA conditions are
expected, though cannot rule out some gusts to 20-25 kt Tue and Wed
aftn in the rivers and overnight Tue in the bay in a SW wind regime.
Another front drops S through the waters Wed night w/ another period
of NNW winds (possibly approaching SCA criteria) through Thu. There
is considerable uncertainty for next weekend as some sort of
cyclogenesis occurs to our S. Given large spatial and temporal
variability among the guidance, continue to utilize a blended
approach which brings elevated winds/seas to the waters late Fri
through next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The cold front which moves through tonight will allow much lower RH
values of as low as 20-25 percent to spread into the region for
Monday and again on Tuesday. Despite deep mixing on Monday,
northwest winds will only be around 10 mph with perhaps some gusts
to 15 mph. Winds may actually become gustier Monday night as colder
air filters into the region and the pressure gradient tightens.
Gusts of 20-25 mph possible on Tuesday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ630>632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...RHR/MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...SW
FIRE WEATHER...