Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161959 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE...1022MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE GREAT SMOKIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NC OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S SUN AND MON. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH. GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF. && .MARINE... COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN. DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE... WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED. AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MPR

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