Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170801 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic today, and then remains over the region and gradually moderates through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The current surface analysis places ~1028mb surface high pressure extending from the Tennessee Valley through the Ohio Valley and into the nrn Mid-Atlantic. The sky is clear early this morning aside from a narrow streamer over the lower Bay. Temperatures range widely early this morning with most inland locations in the low/mid 40s (locally upper 30s over the Piedmont) to 55-60F for coastal SE VA/NE NC where a 10-15 mph NNE wind persists. The high builds into the region today bringing sunny and pleasant conditions. High temperatures will range from 60-65F, which are actually below normal but within -1 st dev. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The high remains over the region tonight resulting in ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear, cool, and dry conditions are expected. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid/upper 30s for rural inland locations, with low/mid 40s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Frost is possible for rural outlying locations. High pressure remains over the region Wednesday and Thursday as the airmass gradually moderates. Sunny/clear and dry conditions will continue. Highs Wednesday range from 65-70F followed by highs Thursday of 70-75F. Wednesday night will generally be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure slowly builds over the area through Sat then moves off the coast Sun/Mon. Dry conditions continue along with a slow warming trend. Highs Fri 70-75. Lows upr 40s-upr 50s. Highs Sat/Sun in the mid-upr 70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows sat nite 50-60. Lows Sun nite in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s. Models show the next cold front approaching Mon. GFS quicker moving it east, ECMWF a bit slower. Will go with low chc pops mainly in the afternoon then chc pops Mon nite. Highs in the mid-upr 70s. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure is building into the region early this morning. The sky is clear aside from a narrow bay streamer in vicinity of ORF. A N wind is generally 5-10kt, but remains 10-15kt with gusts of 20-25kt for ORF. The wind at ORF will gradually diminish through 12z and hence the streamer should dissipate. A NNE wind should range from 6-12kt today under a sunny sky. High pressure builds over the region tonight with the wind becoming calm to very light under a clear sky. High pressure remains over the region Wednesday through Saturday with the sky remaining mostly clear with a light wind. && .MARINE... The latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing well offshore with broad high pressure building into the region. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through this morning due to cold air advection behind the front. Wind gusts up to 30 knots will remain possible over the bay and ocean through early this morning. Went ahead and cancelled the SCA for all of the rivers besides the lower James as wind gusts have mainly diminished below 20 knots in these locations. Seas over the ocean will be up to 6 to 8 feet with the highest seas over the southern coastal waters. Waves over the bay will be up to 3 to 5 feet. Seas and waves are expected to slowly diminish early this morning and through the day today. High pressure will allow for improving marine conditions by tonight with just some lingering 5 to 6 feet seas over the far southern coastal waters. The high will allow for an extended period of sub- SCA conditions through the end of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for radome repairs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654- 656. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJB EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.