Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290042 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 842 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front slowly moves across the region this evening through tonight. Weak high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches the region Friday, stalling along the coast into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Per latest radar trends, widespread showers have reached the Tidewater into northeast North Carolina. Another line of light showers observed into central Virginia. This activity is ahead of a cold front currently pushing across the mountains. Aloft, the associated upper level trough is digging over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Expect the showers over the southeast forecast area to push offshore late this afternoon into this evening. Attention then turns to showers/thunderstorms developing along the front over south central Pennsylvania into northwest Virginia. A clear sky over the northwest local area has pushed temperatures into the upper 80`s to near 90. A moist boundary layer thanks to dewpoints in the low 70`s has resulted in MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg per latest SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear remains marginal as the best height falls are north of the local area. Hi-res guidance continues to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms southward into the northern Piedmont late this afternoon/early this evening ahead of the front. Showers/thunderstorms then push eastward across the northern area, extending as far southward as Richmond by mid-evening as winds aloft increase. Gusty winds are not out of the question with an inverted V sounding, but mid level winds remain rather light (hence limited shear). Precipitable waters remain between 1.5 and 1.75 inches, so locally heavy rainfall is also possible. SPC maintains its marginal risk across the northern half of the forecast area. Expect the front to reach the coast by late tonight, with a drying trend in its wake. Sky averages mostly clear inland to partly cloudy near the coast late tonight. Lows generally in the mid to upper 60`s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft pushes across the Ohio Valley Wednesday. Tonight`s cold front stalls in the vicinity of northeast North Carolina in westerly flow as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Increasing winds aloft along with modest height falls will interact with lingering mid level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected as high pressure builds over the mountains and dewpoints cool into the low to mid 60`s. Seasonal daytime temps with highs in the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Shortwave energy drops over the local area Wednesday night as the frontal boundary remains over northeast North Carolina. Retained slight chance to chance POPs far southern VA and northeast North Carolina. Dry elsewhere. Lows in the low to mid 60`s. Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of northeast North Carolina Thursday. High pressure builds into the northern Mid- Atlantic region early Thursday, before retreating back over the Midwest Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave drops into the Kentucky/Tennessee Valleys. Low pressure progged to develop over the Gulf States Thursday with an inverted trough extending northward into the central Appalachians. The frontal boundary along the Southeast coast will begin to slowly lift northward. Still believe course resolution models are overdone with precip across the local area Thursday due to a lack of isentropic lift and appreciable forcing. However, moisture return and elevated instability will be enough for isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across the southwest half of the forecast area. Highs Thursday in the mid 80`s. Will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday night as the upstream shortwave pushes across the region in tandem with increasing winds aloft. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s. The next northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes/New England Friday. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley late Friday. Meanwhile, the stubborn frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. Better moisture return Friday in deep layer southwest flow will push precipitable waters toward 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Dewpoints warm back into the upper 60`s. Will keep mention of chance POPs Friday afternoon for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday. Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area. For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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All TAF sites are VFR at 00Z except SBY which has MVFR ceilings. A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving towards the Md Eastern Shore but am not sure whether the activity will reach SBY. This weather is moving ahead of a cold front that will push through the region overnight and stall near the coast on Wed. Guidance is showing some fog development tonight. Expect fog to reduce visibility to possible IFR conditions on the Eastern Shore and MVFR/IFR conditions at other sites. The stalled front will meander over the southern portions of the forecast region for the next couple of days and there will be a chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms during the remainder of the week.
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&& .MARINE... Latest obs reflect sw flow (predominately sub-SCA ~10-15 kt) across the waters this aftn. Pre-frontal trough continues to linger across the area, as weak sfc cool front lingers west of the waters in the interior Mid-Atlantic region, from C PA back into W VA. Some sct Pre-frontal showers continue across the local area, and while some stronger gusts are possible under the strongest storms, and can be handled with Marine Wx Statements and warnings as needed, the predominate conditions remain sub-SCA late afternoon and early this evening. Winds will lessen a bit tonight/overnight, as the (weak) cool front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops across the waters. 1022+mb sfc high pressure pushes from the Great Lakes toward the OH Valley on Wed, with low level surface wind flow likely light enough to allow seabreeze interactions to dominate nearshore. A general WNW flow takes over by later Wed evening/Wed night, becoming ENE to E flow on Thu. The weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and through the weekend. A second, somewhat stronger front will shunt the boundary south of the local area late in the weekend into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Chances to add to an already wet month through tonight. June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall through the 27th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...MAS/JEF MARINE...MAM CLIMATE...

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