Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200833 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 433 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LO PRES OFF THE GA/SC CST...WILL START TO DRIFT NE INTO THE ATLC DURING TODAY...AS HI PRES BLDS EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF THAT LO AND SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LO LVL FLO FM THE NE TODAY INTO TNGT. MAINLY LGT RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC. LIKELY POPS ACRS NE NC CNTIES NEAR THE CST AND THE ALBEMARLE SND THRU THIS MORNG...WITH CHC OR SLGT CHC OVR EXTRM SE VA. THEN...CHC OR SLGT CHC THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. SKY RANGING FM PRTLY SNY NNW CNTIES TO CLOUDY ACRS NE NC. MAX TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPR LVL RDG BLDS OVR THE REGION LATER TNGT THRU MON WITH LO PRES CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED OVR CSTL NE NC (ALBEIT SLOLY)...WITH CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY WX ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON EVENG...WILL PUSH E AND OVR THE MTNS TUE MORNG. THAT FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FM W-E TUE...ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR RAIN. MOST OF IF NOT ALL PCPN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTN W...AND EVENG E ON TUE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS WEAKENING WITH TIME...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING FM THE UPR 30S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS MON NGT RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. HI TEMPS ON TUE RANGING FM THE MID TO UPR 70S INLAND...TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S AT THE CST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL ALIGN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES NIGHT- WED MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (AIDED BY 110+ KT JET STREAK) WEDS AFTERNOON...LIKELY ONLY RESULTING IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN SHORE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE COAST WEDS AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT USHERS IN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL AMPLIFY AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS THURS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION THURS...LOCATING OFF THE SE COAST THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OVER THE REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WRT FRONTAL TIMING...AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. AS A RESULT...PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS WEDS AND THURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN PART TO NWLY FLOW. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER FRI AND SAT WITH SW-W FLOW...HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THEREBY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FA THROUGH THE AFTN. DRYING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW...HELPING TO KEEP PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF KECG. HELD ON TO A VCSH GROUP AT ECG WITH SHRAS IN THE AREA...BUT EXPECT PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS TO BE MAINLY DRY. BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WL BE W/STRONG NE FLOW...GUSTING TO 25-30KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .MARINE...
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EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHEAST QUEBEC...RIDGING SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE GA/FL COAST COAST, WITH AN ELONGATED COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT IS CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA FLAGS IN PLACE ALL WATERS. THE SFC LOW PUSHES NE ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING, W/THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. INCREASING NELY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT...UP TO 10 FT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN NIGHT-MON, AS THE COASTAL LOW SLIDES FARTHER EAST. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. SEAS WL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...BUT WL REMAIN IN SCA RANGE (4-7 FT) THRU MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT, SET TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 5 FT EARLY TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS FALLING AOB 15 KT. HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT-WEDS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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