Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 172333 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 733 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop through the region tonight bringing in cooler air for the start of the work week. A stronger cold front will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Cold front is only making slow SE progress so far this evening. Small chances for showers across far SE VA and NE NC later tonight along and just west of the cold front as some additional moisture advects northward. However, HREF probs generally 20-30% so will simply go with isolated or scattered showers late tonight in this region. Otherwise, will keep partly to mostly cloudy and dry for the reminder of the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Behind the cold front it will be cooler on Monday with generally decreasing clouds. The main trough aloft currently over the upper Great Lakes will dig into the middle Atlantic on Monday night. Again, there may be just enough moisture for a isolated to scattered showers in SE VA/NE NC Monday night, but otherwise it will stay dry. Much colder though for Monday and especially Tuesday as 850mb temps drop to nearly -10c by Tuesday morning. Highs will be in the mid 50s to around 60 on Monday with low to mid 50s on Tuesday. Winds will turn to the NW tonight and then become a little gusty tomorrow with a few gusts up to 20 mph especially close to the coast. Perhaps gustier Mon night and especially Tuesday as the upper short wave aloft moves through. Would not be shocked to see gusts to 20-30 mph on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... The middle of the week generally looks quiet. Colder temps from Mon and Tuesday rebound quickly. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week (near normal) most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through Wed night. Highs will be well into the 60s for most areas on Wednesday. Behind this cold front, models quickly diverge on the southern stream system for the weekend. The 00z and 06z GFS are faster and further west, leading to rain moving into the area as early as Friday, with low pressure tracking right along the coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and the associated AIFS is slower and further east, with the best rainfall confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance shows those solutions and everything in between. In summary, the confidence in the rainfall chances for next weekend are lower than usual. There seems to be a model consensus of the best probability of precip being on Saturday and across east/SE VA and NE NE. Have opted to maintain chance pops across the entire region starting Friday night and maintaining those through Saturday night. Have kept a slight chance of rain in the forecast for Sunday as well although the ECMWF solution would be quite wet for Sunday (even though the associated AIFS is dry). Guidance spread in guidance is quite large for the weekend owing to the uncertainty of the evolution of the weekend system. NBM consensus suggests highs to stay below normal from Thu-Sun, but the range is generally from the low/mid 50s-mid 60s so the temperature forecast for the weekend remains an uncertain one as well. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail this evening across the region. A cold front will drop south and east tonight with BKN/OVC CIGs around 5-6kft. A few showers are possible but with a very dry sub-cloud layer, not much is expected to make it to the surface. SW winds become NW behind the frontal passage, generally 5-10 kt tonight, increasing to ~10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by mid morning as deep mixing sets up. Outlook...A few showers possible Mon night in SE VA/NE NC, but flight restrictions not expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period.
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&& .MARINE...
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As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Relatively quiet conditions over the waters this aftn w/ the area in between two cold fronts. Winds are from the W/WSW at ~10 kt, though efficient mixing over land areas is allowing some higher gusts (up to 20 kt) to spill into area rivers and near the land/water interface of the bay and ocean. Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1 ft or less. Secondary cold front crosses the area this evening, turning the winds to the NNW or N. There is likely to be a relatively quick surge where winds increase to 15-20 kt in the Chesapeake Bay with higher gusts. Waves of 2-3 ft expected in the bay with seas remaining around 3 ft. While local wind probs are hovering just under 50% for 18 kt sustained winds in the bay, these events tend to overperform by a few knots. So, have raised SCAs from 6z-15z Mon for all of the bay zones. NW winds briefly subside to 10-15 kt Mon aftn before quickly increasing again Mon night in response to a reinforcing shot of CAA. Widespread SCAs are likely for all waters for this event through early Tue aftn with NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts to ~30 kt. Seas also increase to 4-6 ft, perhaps to 7 ft out 20 nm. Will let the current event SCA expire tomorrow/Mon morning before any additional headlines are raised. From Tue aftn through Wed, generally sub-SCA conditions are expected, though cannot rule out some gusts to 20-25 kt Tue and Wed aftn in the rivers and overnight Tue in the bay in a SW wind regime. Another front drops S through the waters Wed night w/ another period of NNW winds (possibly approaching SCA criteria) through Thu. There is considerable uncertainty for next weekend as some sort of cyclogenesis occurs to our S. Given large spatial and temporal variability among the guidance, continue to utilize a blended approach which brings elevated winds/seas to the waters late Fri through next weekend.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... The cold front which moves through tonight will allow much lower RH values of as low as 20-25 percent to spread into the region for Monday and again on Tuesday. Despite deep mixing on Monday, northwest winds will only be around 10 mph with perhaps some gusts to 15 mph. Winds may actually become gustier Monday night as colder air filters into the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts of 20-25 mph possible on Tuesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...RHR/MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...RHR MARINE...SW FIRE WEATHER...

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