Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261954 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain centered over the southeast United States through the end of the week. A weak frontal boundary will move south into the local area tonight, then lingers across the region through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... It`s been another hot and humid day across the area with high pressure centered over the Southeast. A weak frontal boundary remains situated just north of the local area but will slowly push south through the evening/overnight hours. Starting to get a little more organization with tstms this afternoon but storms are primarily pulse in nature with localized heavy rain. Weak perturbations in the flow aloft along with the weak boundary dropping south will allow for chances for tstms into the late evening (slight chc overnight). The threat of severe wx will be low (marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will be possible in the strongest tstms. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid/upr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Westerly flow aloft will allow the aforementioned boundary to stall over the local area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure remains centered over the area through Friday. There will continue to be enough instability, moisture, and weak forcing to support scattered tstms Wed/Thu aftn/eve (30-40% PoPs) across the area. Again, the threat of severe wx will remain low given weak shear profiles but locally heavy rain is possible with PWs in excess of 2". Given the increased cloud cover Wed and slightly lower/cooler low-level thicknesses and H85 temps across the north/west, should be able to shrink the size of the Heat Advisory headline to SE VA and NE NC. (Similar headline may be necessary Thu). Highs reach the low to mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Latest model data suggests the weak front lifts back north as a warm front Thurs night to near the mason-dixon line on Friday in response to a series of weak disturbances progged to track east along it. Lows Thu night in the mid/upr 70s. Data also shows a lingering sfc trough in lee of mountains. Given the available low level moisture, expect enough instability across the region to carry chc pops across the northern two-thirds of the area Fri aftn (slight chc far south). Warm and humid again with highs in the low to mid 90s (possible heat advisory SE areas). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast will briefly breakdown and wsw flow aloft will persist Thu night through Sat night...followed by a return to more zonal/westerly flow aloft on Sun. A series of weather disturbances will pass across the region as a thermal boundary/lee trough remains over the area. A cold front is expected to approach the region on Sun. Overall, this weather pattern will provide a focus for thunderstorm development and keep a chance for storms in the forecast each aftn/evening. Areal coverage fluctuates with each passing model run and will therefore maintain more broad brushed POP grids. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints generally in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample moisture present across the area. Therefore, anticipated impacts from any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall due to weak steering flow aloft (20kt average) and strong gusty winds. Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the lower 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around 100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching 105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest visible satellite imagery depicts cumulus developing across the local area, with seabreeze boundaries visible along the coast. Expect isolated to scattered convection to develop through mid afternoon, becoming more organized with better coverage late today into the evening. Due to the scattered nature of the storms, it will be difficult to nail down timing to put in TAFS. Best chances this afternoon will be along the seabreeze boundary for KORF and KPHF. High resolution guidance is trending toward late afternoon into the evening hours for KRIC. Lower chances KSBY and KECG. Main threats will be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, expect a scattered to broken deck around 5k ft AGL. Surface winds generally at or below 10 knots. Outlook...Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of the local area through the rest of the week...with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected each day through Saturday. && .MARINE... Generally benign marine conditions expected this week. Winds over the Bay this morng are avgg ~15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt so issued a marine weather statement there. The winds will decrease thru the morng hours as a weak frntal bndry drops into the area...with winds becoming vrb by this aftn. Winds aob 10 kt will continue tngt into Wed with 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. Outlook... Warm front lifts north of the waters by Thurs keeping a light S-SE flow across the region. Expect winds aob 10 KTS with seas arnd 2 FT. && .CLIMATE... Norfolk reached 101 degrees on Monday. This is the first time that it reached 100 degrees or higher on two consecutive days since July 22-23, 2011. No records have been set so far during the current heat spell. Records Tue (7/26) * RIC: 100 (1940) * ORF: 100 (1940) * SBY: 102 (1940) * ECG: 97 (1949) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ079>082- 087>090-092-093-095>098-514-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MAS/SAM MARINE...MRD CLIMATE...AKQ

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