-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFYS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...