Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 022034 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 434 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATES OVER THE REGION. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT AS OF THIS WRITING. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS CLIMBING TOWARD 2 INCHES (+2 STD DEV) AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS. CORFIDI VECTORS AND STORM MOTION SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL HAVE GOOD FORWARD PROPAGATION...LIMITING TRAINING CELLS. FFG ALSO RANGES FROM 2-4 INCHES...SO NOT WATCH IS PLANNED ATTM. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER THE REGION...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION...BUT DEEP/RICH MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR WATER LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS...MAKING STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RICHMOND SWD...AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH NORTH. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH SREF/WPC GUIDANCE. ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE KY/TN VALLEYS TONIGHT...PUSHING EWD THRU THE OVERNIGHT AREAS. MEANWHILE...PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SRN VA EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OVER THE MIDWEST FRI MORNING...TRACKING EWD OVER THE OH VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...LOCATING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER CENTRAL NC FRI AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX REMAINS ACROSS NC...BUT PWATS PROGGED TO REMAIN +2 STD DEV OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS SREF AND NAM GUIDANCE MAINTAIN MODEST INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW PERSISTS FRI NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS ALONG THE OH VALLEY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE AIRMASS AND AVAILABLE ENERGY. TROUGH AXIS LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT AS THE SFC LOW RE- ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCES (CHANCE POPS) WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY. BAGGY TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS SUN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SWD. THE RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 85 SOUTH FRI AND SAT...WARMING INTO MID-UPPER 80S SUN WITH LESS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WPC/SREF QPF AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES FOR SAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, OUR CURRENT PATTERN OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY, SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ARE ON MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PER BOTH THE 12Z/02 ECMWF AND GFS. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH TEMPS MON-WED...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL VA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. KSBY HAD TSTMS EARLIER...APPEARS MORE STABLE UP THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE SBY TAF. ELSEWHERE...SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL IN FAR SOUTHERN/NORTHERN NC ON FRI. HAVE GENLY HIT THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW END MVFR/IFR AFTER 06Z. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN VA/NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI AFTN/FRI NGT. HIGHEST CHC FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOMES CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA SAT. FRONT LIFTS BACK N ON SUN WITH CONTINUED CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN. && .MARINE... UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION INTO SAT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE BOUNDARY...VRB/N-NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB- SCA CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS INTO SUN. GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .CLIMATE... JUNE 2015 CLIMATE: AT NORFOLK: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD. *TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD. AT RICHMOND: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/SAM NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...MAS/SAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...MAM CLIMATE...

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