Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271139 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 639 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT AND H85 TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY...WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AOB 4 DEGS AND CALM WINDS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. LOWEST VISIBILITIES LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA THIS MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST. BLACK ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADWAYS AND ESPECIALLY OVERPASSES WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. SPS IS IN EFFECT THRU EARLY MORNING...MENTIONING BLACK ICE AND FREEZING FOG. FOR TODAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES DE- AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...CROSSING THE NE STATES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW INCREASES. H85 TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIFT OVER THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE SHEARING WAVE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH RH VALUES AOB H85 WITH WEAK LIFT/OMEGA...BUT REMAINING BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO PICKING UP ON LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE N AND NE ZONES...IN TANDEM WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT. CAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER PENINSULA. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW. SMALL DIURNAL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKY AVG PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CAA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PREVAIL THRU THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST TONIGHT AS STRONG ~1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. CAA KICKS IN TONIGHT BUT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LIGHT NLY WINDS KEEP TEMPS OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS IS EXPECTED. THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SAT AS CAA CONTINUES. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S SAT AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT UNDER FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WINDS DECOUPLE BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF QUICKLY. LOWS FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW INLAND. WHILE THICKNESSES BEGIN TO MODERATE...ANOTHER DAY OF 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S...WITH MID-UPPER 30S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL REGIONS. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM DROPS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUN. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE SUN AS MOISTURE RETURNS AND PERTURBATIONS IN FAST WLY FLOW ALOFT CROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME 40-50% POPS ARE FORECAST NE...WITH 30-40% ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING MAINLY -RA AS LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S SW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S N...TO LOW/MID 30S S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE REGION AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING AND BE DICTATED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO BE MILD AND MORE SPRING LIKE...WHILE COOL (BUT MORE SEASONAL/WITHIN -1 ST DEV) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL -RA AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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INTERESTING CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE BTWN 1-3K FT TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST CIGS THAT LOW. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH ENOUGH MOISTUTE ARND 4-5K FT SO WENT WITH A VFR FORECAST WRT CIGS RATHER THAN AN MVFR ONE. SCT FLURRIES ARE PSBL WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS AFTRN...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AT ANY ONE TAF SITE ATTM. WINDS GNRLY NORTH AT 10 MPH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS. ECG OBS RETURNED TO NORMAL SO HAVE REMOVED THE `AMD NOT SKED".
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&& .MARINE... ANTHR ARCTIC FRONTAL BNDRY PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. MODELS SHOW A CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT NOT ALL THAT STRNG. GIVEN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE BNDRY...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A MINIMAL SCA (15-20 KTS) FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT. SURGE A FEW HRS LATER OVR THE CURRITUCK SND (05Z-15Z). ALSO...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SCA OVR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR SEAS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCRS TO JUST UNDER SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THEN OFFSHOREBY SUNDAY RESULTING IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. RETURN S-SW FLOW DVLPS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT APPRCHG FROM THE NW. THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH WINDS BCMG NW TO N BEHIND IT. && .CLIMATE...
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RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING): 2/28 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ _______ __________________________________________ RIC -1/1934 11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF 17/1934 18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1950 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 14/1934 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY): 2/27 2/28 _______ _______ RIC 23/1934 28/1934 ORF 24/1934 30/1934 SBY 24/1934 29/1934 ECG 33/1963 33/1934
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...

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