Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020847 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 447 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SITTING RIGHT NR THE CST ATTM...WILL BE GRADUALLY DRIFTING OFF THE CST THROUGH THE DAY. STARTING OUT SKC AND COOL W/ LGT-VRB WNDS NR THE CST...AND S WNDS MNLY AOB 5 MPH ELSW. WILL CONT W/ FROST ADVISORY ACRS FAR INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC EARLY THIS MRNG. OTRW...A MILDER DAY AS SSW WNDS INCRS AND SKY RMNS MNLY SKC. WNDS BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTN (TO 20-25 MPH). HI TEMPS L/M60S AT THE CST...TO ARND 70F INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND DP LYRD/MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. HAVE ADDED 20-30% POPS TNGT (MNLY AFT MDNGT) INTO EARLY FRI MRNG DUE TO INCRSG MOISTURE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA FM MID/LT FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD TONIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT. WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 40-60% ACRS FCST FRI NGT...THEN SHIFT HIGHEST POPS TO THE CST (ESP SE VA/NE NC) EARLY/MID SAT MRNG. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. MUCH DRIER MOVES IN FROM NW TO SE SAT MORNING...AND XPCG RA TO BE OFF THE CST AFT 15Z/04. TEMPS ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HI TEMPS IN THE U50S/ARND 60F RIGHT AT THE CST...TO L/M60S ELSW UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S (MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST DURING TODAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY...AND EXPECT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT FM MIDDAY TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. JUST INCREASING HI CLOUDS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TNGT INTO FRI NGT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM FRI INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). SO...SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF THE CHES BAY FM THIS AFTN THRU LATE FRI NGT. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25 KT THIS EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...BUILDING TO 3-5 FT NRN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS DURING FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER...WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4 FT AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT...AS WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND 3-5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING (BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS) ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING AOB 15KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT (MNLY ACRS CNTRL/SCNTRL VA) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ097-098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD/SAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG FIRE WEATHER...AKQ

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