Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220800 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC. OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS. M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA). SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A BIT BREEZY AT THE CST. HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/ U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT... WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N DURING THE DAY. SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO INCLUDED AT SBY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY (18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS

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