-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281044
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
644 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area today...then slides off the
coast for Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc hi pres will build over the region on today...providing dry
wx and very comfortable conditions under a sunny or mostly
sunny sky. Highs in the l-m80s...except m-u70s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The high will slide out to sea later tonight thru Fri. Dry
wx will prevail. SSW flow will start to increase on Thu
resulting in a warmer and more humid airmass. Clear or mostly
clear tonight with lows 55 to 60F inland...60 to 65F at the
coast. Partly to mostly sunny on Thu with highs in the m80s to
around 90F...l80s at the beaches.

That SSW flow will bring increasing dewpts/low level moisture
into the region for Thu night and Fri. Enough of that moisture
combined with heating and very weak lift could trigger ISOLD
SHRAs/tstms over far srn/sw counties Fri evening. Lows Thu
night in the m60s to around 70F. Highs on Fri in the 80s-
l90s...l80s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term period will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern
with a weakening cold front approaching from the W/NW on Sat with a
lee sfc trough out ahead of the front. Still capping PoPs at 20-40%
in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more
significant forcing stays NW closer to the front. Lows mainly 70-75
F with highs Sat primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday
will see the front wash out across the local area, will maintain 20-
30% PoPs (except 30 to 40% over northeast NC). Highs in the upper
80/around 90 F. May even be able to lower PoPs a little more across
the N with later model runs but wanted to keep some continuity given
the weak front and a lot of uncertainty as to how much it actually
weakens. Mon/Tue will see the local area generally in light flow and
minimal forcing. It will be very warm and humid with enough
aftn/early evening instability along a lee trough for ~20% PoPs most
areas. Highs 90-95 F inland and mid-upper 80s/lower 90s near the
coast. Lows generally 70-75 F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc hi pres builds over the region today...then shifts slowly
off the coast Thu-Fri. VFR conditions w/ mainly light winds (aob
10 kt) into Thu...some increase in speeds but remaining mainly
aob 15 kt Thu afternoon into Fri as winds become SSW. The next
chance for SHRAs/tstms will be late Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
The brief northerly surge on the Bay from earlier this morning
continues to diminish as of 630 am. Winds become NNE around 10
kt all areas by late morning. Waves subside to 1-2 ft on the Bay by
aftn; seas around 2 ft. As sfc high pressure builds overhead
this aftn, expect much lighter onshore flow to develop at 5-10
kt. High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with
return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt.
Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft
north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern
coastal waters). SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu night.
A slow moving cold a front approaches from the NW Sat but
weakens by the time it reaches the local area on Sunday. Thus,
outside of any tstms conditions will be sub-SCA with winds only
10-15 kt or less.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...JDM