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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010957
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
557 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex area of low pressure will track north across the Mid
Atlantic region today with its trailing cold front moving offshore
late tonight. High pressure builds across the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated grids to increase pops across erh half of fa based on
latest radar trends and high res data. Appears any synpotic
features will be slow to move east next 6-8 hrs with the slug of
Atlantic moisture riding north ahead of the frontal boundary.
This will keep areas along and east of I95 cloudy with ocnl shwrs
thru the morning hrs. Still expect some clrg from the sw this
afternoon.


PVS DSCN:
Latest MSAS showing low prs ivof DAN with frontal boundaries
extending east along the border to near ORF and southeast to near
ILM. Models are somewhat slower with the systems movement today. The
low will slowly make its way across the VA piedmont with the
trailing front crawling toward the coast. Data supports drier air
filtering in behind the low, but plenty of moisture noted to keep
pops going through the day along and east of I95. Temps/sky coverage
rather tricky as TSCTNS indicate skies becoming pt sunny after 18Z
along and west of I95 while it remains mstly cloudy most of the
day along the coast, becoming pt sunny toward the coast late. Best
support fo pcpn (best plume of Atlantic moisture) shifts toward
the coast this afternoon so will keep likely pops there. Kept
likely pops early west of the Bay based on current radar trends
as addntl shwrs develop ahead of the low. Given crnt temps in the
upr 60s to lwr 70s, it won`t take much heating for temps to rise
into the upr 70s-lwr 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
More of the same tonite as the low continues to slowly drift
north with the trailing cold front gradually moving offshore
after midnight. Chc pops will be maintained along the coast under
mstly cldy skies as another piece of energy works its way north
ahead of the frontal boundary. Mstly clr to pt cldy across the
piedmont. Patchy fog possible in areas that do sct out across the
west. Lows range from the upr 50s nwrn most zones where some lwr
dew point temps will occur to the upr 60s along coastal sections.

Yet another piece of energy rides north along the boundary just
offshore on Sun. Enough lagging energy to keep chc pops going along
coastal sections into Sun evening before the boundary moves further
away from the coast. Dry across the piedmont. Highs Sun in the upr
70s to lwr 80s. Lows Sun nite in the upr 50s to mid 60s.

Finally a dry day Mon under pt to mstly sunny skies as high prs
builds into the area. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will see a return of an onshore flow that
prevailed during much of the past week. a stationary front will be
situated well off the Mid Atlantic Coast with a strong surface high
over southeast Canada rebuilding over the Eastern Seaboard. Upper
level ridging will slowly breakdown during the week as a strong
upper level trough moves across the Northern Great Plains.

There will be 20 to 40 percent chances for showers especially over
eastern portions of the area with highest chances Wednesday through
Thursday night.

Hurricane Matthew may influence portions of the area late in the
week. Although the track is uncertain...it is expected that its
greatest impact will be in the marine area. Check with the National
Hurricane Center for updates and details.

High temperatures are forecast to range through the 70s with Tuesday
likely being the warmest day. Low temperatures will generally be in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Based on latest radar trends of more showers developing, went
ahead with a prevailing VCSH all TAF sites with a TEMPO group for
lower CIGS/VSBYS.

PVS DSCN:
IFR ST and with variable VSBYS between 2-6SM were noted across
inland areas as well as the ern shore early this morning with sct
shwrs mainly along and west of the I95 corridor and the MD ern
shore. Kept VCSH along with a few hour Tempo group at RIC/SBY
based on crnt radar trends. Rain over the ocean appears to stay
east of SBY as it moves northward along the Mid Atlantic seaboard.
VFR CIGS were noted across ORF/ECG with MVFR CIGS at PHF where
drier air is beginning to surge northward. Expect VFR CIGS after
sunrise with VFR conditions all areas by 18Z as the drier air
continues to move north.

OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected into early next week except for
lower VSBYS in early morning fog given the wet ground and longer
nites.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows a complex area of weak low pressure over
the Carolinas/southern VA, with strong high pressure centered over
SE Canada/northern New England. Associated onshore flow continues
this morng, and with prolonged easterly fetch over the ocean, seas
are continuing around 5-6 ft out 20 nm. Will end the sca over
southern marine zones at 7 am, while it will likely take until
late this evening for seas to drop below 5 ft over northern
coastal waters. Winds aob 15kt today, shifting to a more southerly
component late in the day as another area of low pressure slides
ne through the OH Valley. Sfc hi pressure then builds in from the
north early next week, with sca conditions likely to return by
midweek as the high strengthens and Hurricane Matthew slides
north off the SE coast. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding
Matthew`s storm track at this time, but the general trend will be
for increasing onshore winds and continually building seas for the
second half of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding continues across the primary rivers of the Lower
MD Eastern Shore due to recent heavy rainfall, mainly the Pocomoke
and Nanticoke. This flooding will likely continue through most of
today based on latest levels and EM reports. See the latest flood
warnings (FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ) for more details.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
* Updated at 1200 AM EDT. See numbered bullets below for
  additional details.

Strong/anomalous sfc high pressure remains over sern Canada
before weakening this aftn as stacked low pressure over the
Midwest drifts north and slightly east during this same timeframe.
This will translate into onshore/se winds transitioning to more
southerly (and decreasing) later today. As the winds shift and
decrease, tidal anomalies will decrease incrementally by a few
tenths of a foot with each passing high tide cycle.

Several areas of concern are as follows:
1. Coastal flood warning for the MD Lower Eastern Shore on Ches
Bay continues through 400 AM this morning (primarily based on
tidal data for Bishops Head). The previous warning for the Nrn
Neck has been transitioned into a coastal flood advisory and is
now in effect through 400 PM this aftn.

2. Coastal flood advisory for wrn Ches Bay areas from Hampton
Roads to the Middle Peninsula has been extended through 1200 PM
this aftn.

3. Coastal flood advisory for Maryland Beaches and Ches Bay side
of VA Eastern Shore will continue through 1100 AM this morning.

* Surf zone forecast has ended for the season.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024-
     025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ089-090-093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ084>086-
     095>097-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-
     100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...