-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
258
FXUS61 KAKQ 131851
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
251 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues into next week with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible into the mid week period
before heat builds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 252 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will accompany the slow-moving
  convection through the evening with continued threat for
  localized flash flooding.

A weak front remains draped across our area, which has served as the
main trigger for convection this afternoon. Outflow boundaries have
spawned addition convection, especially in the Montross area and
along US 460 between the Richmond metro and Sussex County. These
storms have been almost stagnant and have produced extremely heavy
rainfall that have prompted the issuance of multiple flash-flood
warnings. These storms will continue to develop along the outflow
boundaries that are generally moving to the south. Areas in south-
central and potentially southeast VA and NE NC could see heavy
rainfall over the next few hours and additional flash-flood warnings
may be needed. These storms are moving into an untapped environment
and mesoanalysis places around 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and PWs values of
1.8-2.0", so they will likely be able to maintain themselves despite
the lack of upper level support and shear.

Storm coverage will start to taper off this evening as we lose
daytime heating and the environment gets worked over from the
ongoing convection. As we have seen the past few nights, patchy
fog is possible, especially in areas that saw rainfall today.
Temperatures will drop into the lower 70s overnight tonight and
cloud cover should scatter out briefly before a possible stratus
deck forms early tomorrow morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 252 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches the region from the NW on Monday, resulting
  in greater coverage of showers and storms. A Flood Watch may
  be necessary for portions of the area.

- Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday with additional rounds of
  showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area.

The current unsettled pattern we are in will continue over the next
few days, with ample instability and minimal inhibition. Shear will
continue to be a limiting factor though with strong daytime heating
preceding storm development, DCAPE values will range between 700-
1200 J/kg which could result in isolated downbursts. With the
steering flow being almost non-existent, the main threat will be
flash-flooding. Slow moving storms, combined with PW values of 2"+,
will lead to extended periods of heavy rainfall for areas across our
forecast area. As with the challenge of today, the scattered nature
of convective development that is expected will hinder the ability
to pinpoint exactly where this heavy rainfall will set up. With the
antecedent rainfall we have seen over the past few days, flash-flood
guidance continues to be very low, so in more vulnerable areas such
as the Richmond metro it will not take much rainfall to lead to
flooding. WPC has placed a majority of our forecast area in a Slight
ERO on Monday, and scattered instances of flash-flooding are
possible. A Marginal ERO is in place across eastern North Carolina
through the Hampton Roads and into the Eastern Shore. An extension
of the current Flood Watch will likely be necessary, with the
possible expansion eastward. The front will stall to our northwest
on Tuesday, bringing another day of afternoon storms that could
bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to areas. WPC continues to
highlight our area with at least a Marginal ERO for now for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. By
Tuesday, more cloud cover is expected as the front is forecast to be
a little closer to the area, so highs are forecast to only reach the
upper 80s with temperatures nearing 90 degrees in the NE NC and SE
VA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 252 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Stagnant pattern continues mid to late week with daily shower and
  storm chances

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Looking ahead to mid-week, scattered convection will continue each
afternoon. With upper ridging building the region starting Thursday
through the weekend, convective coverage could diminish to widely
scattered or even isolated, but have maintained scattered PoPs for
the time being. If this pattern holds, will likely need to decrease
rain chances for late week and into the weekend. With the
possibility of decreased cloud coverage and showers, combined with
the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb into the lower
90s Thursday through Saturday, with Friday possibly seeing mid 90s
across the area. Heat indices, especially on Friday, could eclipse
105F+ so Heat Advisories may be required at least in the SE/S
portion of our area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

Similar to yesterday afternoon, widespread showers and
thunderstorms have started to develop in the vicinity of RIC.
RIC has the best chance to see thunderstorm activity this
afternoon with more isolated chances at the other TAF sites. Any
thunderstorms have the potential to produce IFR VSBYs (due to
very heavy rainfall) and gusty winds. Outside of the storms,
CIGs are generally VFR with bases of 3500 to 4000 feet.
Showers/storms gradually diminish tonight (though may linger
until ~06z across central VA). Another round of MVFR to IFR CIGs
and/or low VSBYs are possible again late tonight into tomorrow
morning.

Outlook: Additional isolated to scattered afternoon-late
evening thunderstorms are expected to recur each day through
early this week, along with the potential for early morning
fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

High pressure extends SW toward the northern Mid-Atlantic
coast this afternoon. A trough remains inland over the
Piedmont, with weak low pressure well E of the VA coast. The
wind is primarily E to SE 5-10kt this afternoon, with seas
~2 ft, and waves 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft in the Ches. Bay.

A similar pressure pattern continues this evening with a SE wind
around 5-15kt. High pressure retreats E of the Canadian
Maritimes later tonight into Monday. Meanwhile, subtropical high
pressure rebuilds off the Southeast coast through the middle of
the week. This will allow the wind to become S to SW 5-10kt
early in the week, with a mid- aftn to early evening sea-breeze
influenced shift to SSE Monday and Tuesday. The pressure
gradient tightens Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure
tracks NE of the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. This
will potentially bring SCA conditions in a SW wind, with the
best chc in the Ches. Bay. The wind diminishes by Friday as the
pressure gradient relaxes due to a weakening front dropping to
the region. Seas will mainly be ~2ft through Tuesday and then
2-3ft by Wednesday, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the
Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft (2-3ft nearshore) by Wednesday
night and Thursday, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Aftn/evening showers/tstms will have limited coverage over the
marine area this evening, with higher chances during the
aftn/evening hours Monday through Wednesday. The main hazards
with tstms will be brief strong wind gusts, frequent lighting,
and reduced vsby in heavy rain.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     509>516.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...RHR/NB
AVIATION...AJB/RHR
MARINE...AJB/AJZ