Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 251057 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 657 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Another day with hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels as a warm front crosses the region today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty winds. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair weather to the area through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Heat Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley specifically eastern Ulster and western Dutchess counties for this afternoon for heat indices up to around 100 degrees. The Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across area today. Some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Once again a difficult forecast across the region regarding severe weather potential. A warm front is forecast to lift northeast across the region today. Convection on-going across eastern Great Lakes with warm front. HRRR is not handling this very well. Brought pops into area later this morning. The area is expected to be in the warm sector this afternoon with the system`s cold front on the approach from the Great Lakes region. A pre- frontal trough is expected to develop with convection firing up as the airmass destabilizes in the warm sector. Guidance appear too high with its CAPE in some area with forecast dew points in the mid/upper 70s. Due expected dew points to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s yielding MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. A short wave trough moving through the fast flow along the United States Canadian border will provide large scale ascent across the region as heights fall as it approaches this afternoon. Mesoscale models bring convection across the area however offer different evolutions. HRRR indicates a line of convection will move across the local area between 18z and 22Z, however the NCAR ensemble forecasts guidance focuses the convection across the southern portion of the forecast area from the Capital District southward in that time frame. In collaboration with neighboring offices have likely pops move across the forecast area this afternoon into early evening. Have gone with enhanced wording of gusty winds and small hail with marginal risk in place and heavy rainfall as precipitable water values are forecast to rise to around 2 inches. It will be another very warm/hot day across the area in the warm sector. High temperatures in the lower 90s in the mid Hudson Valley combined with dew points into the lower 70s will result in heat indices of around 100 degrees for a few hours this afternoon so have issued a heat advisory for eastern Ulster and western Dutchess. Much of the rest of the forecast area will experience heat indices in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Convection will be winding down and moving off to the east with the pre-frontal trough early in the evening. The cold front will move across the region late in the evening and during the early morning hours. A drier airmass will be ushered in the wake of the boundary, however only slightly cooler. Ridging will build in the lower levels of the atmosphere through the middle of the week, while the flow aloft flatten and becomes zonal. Expecting fair weather with continue above normal temperatures with westerly flow across the area. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 90s with Wednesday a bit warmer than Tuesday. Nighttime lows will be near to slightly above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A low confidence forecast in the long term...as the GFS and Canadian Guidance is much different compared to the ECMWF and superblend of the guidance. The latter guidance package favors wet and unsettled weather with a cold front stalling over eastern NY and western New England with slight or low chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. To stay consistent with the neighboring forecast a superblend of the guidance had to be utilized. Thu-Thu night...An amplifying upper level trough will allow a cold front to approach the region during the day. The front lacks robust moisture convergence and strong upper level support. Only a low chance of showers with a slight chc of thunderstorms was used. H850 temps will be in the +15C to +18C range from the Adirondacks southeast into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s were favored in the valley areas...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. The front stalls near the I-90 corridor according the WPC guidance THU night. Lows will be on the mild side with mid and upper 60s in the lower elevations and upper 50s to lower 60s over the mountains. Fri-Fri night..The front becomes stationary over southern NY and southern New England. The GFS/CAN GGEM would have the mid and upper level trough amplify enough for high pressure to build in...and this would be a drier scenario. The EC has showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of a sfc wave and the stationary front lifting back slightly north as a warm front. Again...based on the blend of the guidance this was favored with slightly cooler temps with mid 70s to mid 80s for highs. It will remain humid with dewpts in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will range from the mid and upper 50s over the srn Dacks...and srn Greens to upper 60s over the mid Hudson Valley and portions of NW CT. Sat-Sun...More unsettled weather potentially with a series of disturbances moving along the front with a rather flat upper level trough near the Great Lakes Region. Chances of showers will persist with slight to low chances of thunderstorms in the moist environment. Some of the rainfall could help the hydro service area due to the persistent dry wx/drought conditions over the past month or so. Temps are expected to be close to late July normals. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will move east of New England today, as a warm front moves through. A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon and tonight. Mid and high clouds continue to increase across eastern NY and western New England this morning ahead of the warm front. VFR conditions should prevail into the early afternoon. As the warm front moves across eastern NY some isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur in the early pm and VCSH groups were issued. The better chc of thunderstorms will be ahead of the cold front...and PROB30 groups were used with thunderstorms btwn 20Z to 00Z/TUE for KGFL/KPOU...and our thinking was a better chc for KALB/KPSF. Some brief reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. VFR conditions are possible after 00Z/TUE...but there maybe some patchy MVFR/IFR mist around where any showers or thunderstorms occur after 04Z. The winds will be light to calm early this morning and then will become south to southwest at 5-12 KT into the afternoon. Some gusts in the 15-20 KT range will be possible in the afternoon before becoming light after 00Z/TUE. Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Westerly wind with gusts into the teens and 20s Tuesday afternoon... Another day with hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair dry weather to the area through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water values rise to around 2 inches. Ponding of water on roadways along with some minor urban flooding of low lying and poor drainage area is possible. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair weather to the area through the middle of the week. Unsettled weather is expected late in the week through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Here is a look at the number of 90+ degree days so far this year through July 24th, what is normal and the most that has occurred in a year. Albany NY: 2016: 9 days Normal: 10 days Most: 32 days in 1955 Note: Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY: 2016: 8 days Normal: 6 days Most: 22 days in 1988 Note records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY: 2016: 16 days with 10 days in July and another forecast for today Normal: 15 days Most: 30 days in numerous year most recently 2010, 2005 and 2002 Note: Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 Pittsfield MA: 2016: 1 day Normal: 2 days Most: 7 days in 2010 Based on data dating back to 2000 Bennington VT: 2016: 2 days Normal: 3 days Most: 9 days in 2010 Based on data dating back to 2000 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA CLIMATE...IAA

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