Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 010758 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 358 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control through Thursday...bringing fair and mild conditions...along with comfortable humidity levels to the region. An approaching cold front will bring a threat of showers to the region Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A large ridge of high pressure will settle southeast from Canada across our region today providing mostly sunny skies and comfortable conditions with fairly low humidity levels. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with winds becoming easterly at 5 to 10 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather will hold through most of Thursday as the ridge of high pressure slides off the eastern seaboard tonight. Skies will start out mainly clear this evening and then become partly cloudy overnight. Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a warm front moves into western New York Thursday morning. Showers will break out across the northwestern third of the fa during the afternoon as the warm front pushes east across New York State. Have also included a slight chance of thunder in the grids as Showalter indices start to trend toward negative values while MLMUCAPES of several hundred J/KG will be possible. Lows tonight are expected to be in the 50s with highs on Thursday in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Thursday evening will see the warm front push across eastern New York and into western New England as a cold front approaches from central and western New York. This will keep the showers going which will likely increase in coverage. Will continue to mention a slight chance of thunderstorms as Showalter indices go negative Thursday night. Expect lows to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The cold front will cross the region on Friday with more showers and isolated thunderstorms. MLMUCAPES still only a few hundred J/KG so not expecting any widespread activity. Highs on Friday will be cooler than recent days due to cloud cover and precipitation. Expect highs to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. On Friday night the showers will come to an end with improving conditions overnight. Expect lows Friday night to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A period of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are in the forecast for later half of the weekend into early next week. Latest NCEP model suite, international guidance and ensembles all suggest a rather vigorous wave coming ashore across British Columbia will carve out an upper level trough across the Great Lakes region and spread throughout the northeast corridor later in the weekend and continue into early next week. Saturday may be the best day with broad surface ridge and short wave ridge axis sliding overhead for partial June sunshine and near seasonable temperatures. Then subtropical moisture along with the approach of the aforementioned Great Lakes system will converge along the southeast and eastern seaboard Saturday night into Sunday. There remains some model timing issues as the GFS is the most amplified and hence a slower surface low track than the ECMWF/GGEM, nevertheless, a soggy and cooler end to this first weekend of June. The best moisture transport and higher theta-e air appears to remain just to our south and east of the CWFA to reduce the threat of heavy rainfall at this time. As for thunderstorm potential, instability parameters have diminished as we will drop back to slight chance pops for thunderstorms at this time /showalters have risen a couple of degrees and lapse rates were near moist adiabatic/. Early next week does not look much better with cool and moist cyclonic flow around the upper low in the vicinity of the Great Lakes and the passage of a couple of surface boundaries to keep PoPs elevated and temperatures on the cooler side /mainly 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s across the terrain to 50s elsewhere/. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF forecast cycle ending 06z/Thursday. While a ridge of high pressure will be building southward from eastern Canada, there is a weak frontal boundary drifting southward. There is some higher level clouds and a sct-bkn mid level cloud deck slowly advancing southward from northern NY per the 11u-3.9u satellite imagery. Some of these clouds may make it into KGFL overnight. Through the daylight hours Wednesday, indications of some diurnally driven cumulus developing with the greatest impact at KPSF. Then heading late in the day and evening hours, southerly flow will advect in additional mid level moisture for more sct-bkn cigs across the entire region. Winds will generally be rather light with speeds less than 10kts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control through Thursday, bringing fair and mild conditions, along with comfortable humidity levels to the region. An approaching cold front will bring a threat of showers to the region Thursday night into Friday. Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this afternoon, recover to 75 to 100 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Thursday. Winds will become east at 5 to 10 mph today, south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph tonight, and south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph on Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... High pressure will build into our region with dry weather continuing through Thursday. The next chance for showers will return Thursday night and Friday as a frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes region. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...11 SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM/NAS FIRE WEATHER...11 HYDROLOGY...KL/11

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