Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 280824 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 424 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge in from eastern Quebec today into tonight with mainly dry and seasonable temperatures...except for some isolated showers or sprinkles across western New England. A slow moving low pressure system near the Ohio Valley will gradually move towards New York and New England with an increase of scattered showers Thursday into Friday with cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 424 AM EDT...A cutoff low continues to swirl over the western Great Lakes Region this morning. The cutoff will slowly descend south/southeast into the Midwest today. Meanwhile...the Northeast will be under the influence of southwest flow aloft. A stationary front remains off the New England and East Coast with a sfc anticyclone ridging in from east/northeast Quebec. The return...onshore flow from the sfc high will focus some isolated showers/sprinkles along the east facing slopes of the southern Greens...Berkshires and Litchfield hills today. Most of the forecast area will remain dry. With the weak backdoor style front pushing southwest from northern New England...H850 temps will range from +6 to +7C over southern VT to +9C to +10C over the Catskills and Mid Hudson Valley. Highs will be near normal in mid and upper 60s in the valley areas...except the CT River Valley in southern VT where upper 50s to lower 60s are likely...and mid 50s to lower 60s will be common over the mountains. Northeast to southeast winds will prevail at 5 to 15 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tonight...Much of the evening period should end up dry with the threat of isolated to scattered showers moving in from the south and west with an impulse moving north/northeast from the cutoff cyclone centered over IN towards daybreak. The low level baroclinic zone between the large anticylone near southeast Quebec/Northern ME...and the double barrel low pressure system over the OH Valley...and Mid Atlantic Region strengthens. The best chance for scattered showers will be from the Capital Region south and east before day break. Lows will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area. Thu-Thu night...The cutoff low actually wobbles further south/southeast towards KY/TN. A short-wave pivots around the cyclone. There is still quite a bit of disparity in the NAM/EC/GFS/Canadian Guidance on how far north and east the short- wave impacts the region. The GFS/ECMWF mainly have locations from the Mohawk Valley/southern Dacks/Capital Region having a bout of showers...and then a decrease in them during the afternoon and early evening. Previous CSTAR research has documented that cutoffs are always challenging to forecast in terms of the timing of rain and the amounts. This trend continues with this event. Chance pops were mainly used from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region south and west with slight chc pops or no pops further north east with the ridge trying to still build in. Temps will be seasonable and slight cooler than previous days with upper 50s to lower 60s over the elevated terrain...and mid and upper 60s in the valley areas. Lows Thu night will be similar to the previous night with mid 40s to lower 50s in the maritime air mass. Fri-Fri night...The trend increases for more scattered showers on the the cutoff continues to spin over OH Valley. A weak wave or inverted trough sets up over the New England/Mid Atlantic coast with better moisture advection coming in from the south and east. High chc pops were used with some areas of likely values. The fetch of Atlantic moisture increases with a strengthening east to southeast H850-700 low-level jet. We leaned closer to the cooler GFSMOS guidance with lots of clouds and periods of showers. Highs should be below normal with mid 50s to lower 60s over the forecast area. Lows will show little change from the previous days with mid 40s to around 50F north and east of the Tri Cities...and upper 40s to mid 50s south and west. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Biggest forecast challenge during the extended period with be regarding the exact track and timing of an upper level low and the placement of precipitation around this feature. The upper level low, which looks to be situated west of the area over the weekend, will track over and across the region for early next week. During the weekend, the upper level low will be situated somewhere over the Midwest/Ohio Valley Region. With a southerly flow ahead of this system, plenty of moisture will be advected into the area from the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. PWAT values look to climb to around 1.50 inches or higher (at least 1 and up to 3 STD above normal). With the cyclonic flow in place, some showers will be possible over the weekend, especially on Saturday and across southern areas, when the low and mid level flow is out of the S-SE, which will promote upslope flow into the Catskills. Although there could be some brief burst of heavy rainfall, any rainfall is much needed across the region. On and off showers look to occur each day with a mostly cloudy sky. With plenty of clouds in place, there won`t be a large diurnal range each day. Temps over the weekend look to reach the 60s during the day with 50s at night. As the upper level low starts to shift eastward, the chance for precip will start to decrease from west to east. Just when the threat ends will depend on when the upper level low exits to the east, which could be as early as Monday night, as shown in some model solutions. Once the upper level low exits, heights look to rise, as ridging builds in for the mid week period. Will continue to allow a chance for showers into Monday, but will decrease for Mon night into Tuesday. High temps look to reach the mid to upper 60s for Mon/Tues, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Aside from a small patch of mid level clouds, IR satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies over the region. These clear skies and calm winds are allowing for good radiational cooling across the area. As a result, some IFR/LIFR fog has already occurred at KGFL/KPSF and some additional fog will occur at these sites through 12z or so. Meanwhile, no fog has occurred at KALB/KPOU, but cannot rule out some MVFR BR at times, especially towards daybreak. Outside of any fog, sky cover should be fairly clear and winds will continue to be calm. After any early fog/mist, VFR conditions are expected for much of the day for the valley sites of KGFL/KALB/KPOU with sct-bkn cigs at 3500-5000 ft. Meanwhile, flying conditions look primarily MVFR at KPSF with bkn cigs at 2000-3000 ft there, thanks to upslope flow. East to southeast winds will be 5-10 kts, with the strongest winds occurring at KALB. By this evening, some MVFR cigs will develop at KPOU thanks to increasing low level moisture. VFR conditions may continue for a little bit longer at KGFL/KALB, although ceilings will start to lower and cloud coverage will also increase. East to northeast winds will be around 5 kts for Wednesday night. It should be dry through 06z, although cannot totally rule out a shower after that time. Outlook... Thursday Night to Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will ridge in from eastern Quebec today into tonight with mainly dry and seasonable temperatures...except for some isolated showers or sprinkles across western New England. A slow moving low pressure system near the Ohio Valley will gradually move towards New York and New England with an increase of scattered showers Thursday into Friday with cooler temperatures. The RH values will lower only to 50 to 70 percent this afternoon...and have an excellent recovery to close to 100 percent tonight. The RH values will remain elevated in the 55 to 75 percent range Thursday afternoon. The winds will vary from the northeast to southeast at 5 to 15mph on today. They will be north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph tonight into Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydro issues are expected the next 5 days ending on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers may return tonight into the weekend with a cutoff cyclone. The amount of rainfall is uncertain during the stretch, but totals of a quarter to three quarters of an inch will be possible in some locations depending on the track of the cutoff. At this time, the best potential for rainfall will along and south of Interstate 90 into the weekend. Locations further north and east may only have lights amounts of rainfall...mainly under a quarter of an inch. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 22nd shows drought conditions have changed very little across the region. The next issuance will be on September 29th. For details visit: For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.