Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 192021 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 321 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold nights and relatively mild afternoons with mainly dry weather is forecast through the weekend. A low pressure system is likely to bring periods of precipitation Monday and Tuesday, with a variety of precipitation types possible, and some moderate to heavy rain too.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 pm, Not much change to the forecast as clouds and diminishing light snow showers downwind of Lake Ontario continues. Made modifications to the PoP/Wx per trends and matched satellite images with forecast trends from the HRRR/HRRRx/RAP13. Slowed temperatures a bit per hourly observational trends. Clouds decrease tonight, although they may be stubborn for the higher elevations up north. It appears a modest pressure gradient will be maintained thanks to a clipper passing well north of the region, so low temps should be above seasonal normals in the upper teens to mid-20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
On Saturday, a weak cold front crosses the region, though with little deep layer moisture and upper-level support, expect it to be mainly dry. Good mixing is forecast behind the front, so expect temps to get a nice boost from downsloping. Looking at temps above normal in the mid-30s to mid-40s, possibly a bit higher if mixing is a bit deeper. The mixing will result in a breezy day with westerly gusts of 30-40 mph possible over favored northwesterly wind areas such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital District over into the Berkshires as well as at higher elevations. Clouds should be most prevalent in northern areas, and over higher terrain. For Saturday night, weak high pressure moves across the area. It is a bit of a dirty high so there is expected to be broken cloud cover. There is also a weak back door surface front stalled across the northern part of the area. This front may trigger a few light snow showers or areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle over the Adirondacks. Clouds strt to increase all areas late Sunday into Sunday evening. Slight chance to chance PoPs are in place late Sunday night over western areas as moisture increases in advance of a warm front. Highs saturday mid 30s to mid 40s. Lows Saturday night in the 20s. Highs Sunday 30s to around 40. Lows Sunday night in the 20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Guidance remains consistent that a large vertical stacked storm system will impact the region early next week. A blended model approach which was used for this forecast. It appears the system should occluded as it moves across the region which will limit the degree of warming which will occur. As the system approaches guidance indicates the low level southerly jet should be 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Also, PWATs are forecast to climb up 2-3 standard deviations above normal. QPF amounts now for Monday through Tuesday are forecast to be around an inch across the local area with the bulk of that occurring late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Initially some light snow or mixed precipitation is forecast all areas with little accumulation of frozen precipitation outside of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont where around an inch of snow/sleet may accumulate, along with a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain in isolated cold pockets. Some frozen precipitation may linger into Monday night across the northern portion of the forecast particular in the upper Hudson Valley and across southern Vermont. With the passage of the system colder, seasonable air will be ushered back in with rain changing back to snow Tuesday night. In the wake of the system will have cold cyclonic flow across the region with some lake effect and upslope snows Tuesday night lingering into perhaps Wednesday night. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s Monday and Monday night with areas mainly along and east of the Hudson River Valley warming into the 40s on Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday night should drop back into the upper teens to upper 20s. Despite near seasonable temperatures for Wednesday brisk and gusty westerly winds will make it feel colder. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall into the single digits to teens with seasonable readings for Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCT-BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings north of KPOU will slowly lift northward through the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions should become VFR through tonight into Saturday. West to southwest winds will prevail, become light in magnitudes tonight then increase into Saturday. LLWS potential tonight with the best chance at KPSF where we will mention in the TAF. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN...Sleet. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place. A gradual warming trend will occur into this weekend, but below freezing temperatures are forecast at night which will slow any melt. We will monitor trends in temperatures due to potential impacts on existing ice jams. In terms of precipitation, no hydrologically significant precipitation is expected through the weekend. A period of mixed precipitation and rain is forecast Monday into Tuesday. this rain is expected to cause renewed river rises, which may move and dislodge ice and possibly cause some flooding near ice jams. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND NEAR TERM...BGM/Thompson SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...SND AVIATION...BGM/Thompson HYDROLOGY...SND

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.