Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 291747 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 147 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The first in a series of quick moving disturbances will approach the region today, bringing periods of rain along with unseasonably cool temperatures. More clouds and showers are likely Tuesday and Wednesday, with thunderstorms also possible as additional upper level disturbances move through the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tonight, after the initial surge of QG forcing/isentropic lift moves this afternoon, there appears to be little in the way of additional forcing through tonight. Will keep slight chance PoPs in case some remnant convection from central/western NYS can migrate eastward, and also for some patchy drizzle that may develop. Otherwise, just isolated showers with mostly cloudy skies expected. Lows should mainly fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tuesday, another shortwave is expected to approach in the afternoon/evening. Models suggest some destabilization across central/western NYS in the afternoon, with perhaps some instability developing across the western Mohawk Valley/Adirondacks and eastern Catskills/Schoharie Valley if a few breaks in the clouds develop. There will be increasing 0-6 km bulk shear potentially exceeding 50 kt, esp across the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley by later in the day, so if some convection migrates into western areas, some gusty winds may occur. In addition, MLMUCAPES reach 500-1000 J/KG acrs this region Tuesday afternoon. Latest SPC Day 2 Outlooks has the region in a Marginal Risk for severe wind gusts with convection late Tuesday afternoon/evening, but remains highly conditional on how much destabilization, from any breaks in the clouds that develop, late in the day. Current forecast highs are in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Tuesday night, remnant convection may still be ongoing across the region through midnight, especially from the Capital Region and points N and W. Convective trends should weaken through the night, esp S and E of the Capital Region where a deeper stable marine layer may reside. So, gradually decreasing chances for showers/storms through the night, with lows mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... An upper impulse tracking around the southern periphery of broad upper troughing in eastern North America is expected to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over our region. Highs Wednesday in the 70s but mid to upper 60s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... There is a consensus in sources of guidance for weak flat upper ridging between the exiting upper energy and an upper cut off low dropping south out of eastern Canada on Thursday. So there is the potential for a generally dry day Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s but around 60 to mid 60s higher terrain. Decent consensus form sources of guidance for the upper cutoff to continue dropping south through next weekend across northern NY and New England with isolated to scattered showers Friday and Saturday but increasing coverage of showers Sunday with a cold pool aloft. Highs Friday through Sunday in the 70s but 60s higher terrain. High temperatures may drop a degree or two each day Friday through Sunday as temperatures aloft cool a little with the closer proximity to the upper low each day. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Rain will continue this afternoon across the TAF sites although it will decrease in intensity and becoming more intermittent later this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions mixed with MVFR, mainly for Cigs, but also occasionally for Vsbys through this afternoon as the steadier rain moves through. Later in the day, coverage of showers will become more scattered but with continued VFR/MVFR conditions. VFR/MVFR cigs are expected to continue into this evening, and may lower to IFR levels later tonight, esp at KPSF. On Tuesday MVFR conditions are expected with showers and a chance of thunderstorms especially during the afternoon. Winds will be southeast around 5-10 kts through tonight with south winds at 10-15 kts on Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... The first in a series of quick moving disturbances will approach the region today, bringing periods of rain along with unseasonably cool temperatures. More clouds and showers are likely Tuesday and Wednesday, with thunderstorms also possible as additional upper level disturbances move through the region. Total rainfall amounts through Wednesday should range from one half inch, to over one inch. && .HYDROLOGY... An approaching system will bring periods of rain today, with total QPF ranging from 0.50-1.00" expected. Highest amounts are expected to be over the Mohawk Valley and Western Adirondacks. Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Wednesday, with basin average QPF likely remaining less than an additional half inch Tuesday, and less than a quarter inch Wednesday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... The ASOS at the Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA continueS to experience outages with hourly METARS occasionally or continuously missing. This will persist until communications are fully restored. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Thompson NEAR TERM...KL/11 SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...KL/11/JPV FIRE WEATHER...KL/Thompson HYDROLOGY...KL/Thompson EQUIPMENT...

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