Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 231451 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 951 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system over the southeastern United States will move northeastward off the mid Atlantic coast tonight and will pass to the south of Long Island Tuesday. This storm will bring widespread precipitation to the area in the form of snow, sleet and rain along with some strong easterly winds. The precipitation will overspread the area today especially this afternoon and continue through the overnight moderate to heavy at times then is expected to taper off Tuesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 930 AM EST...Per the latest HRRR/RAP13 and 12Z/NAM12 along with our 12Z sounding, we will delay the onset of precipitation by a couple more hours as 12HR difference in our sounding reveals a drier air mass (likely due to the increasing ENE wind where dewpoints upstream are a few degrees cooler). No other changes to the ongoing headlines as precipitation should advance from south to north late this afternoon. Prev Disc... Colder solution with more snow in the forecast than yesterday, however not enough to warrant a change in headline type. However, did adjust the end time of the Winter Weather Advisories. The Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 1 PM today until 1 PM Tuesday for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Schoharie Valley, Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, Capital District, Taconics, Berkshires and northwest CT. The Winter Weather Advisory is now effect from 7 PM today until 1 PM on Tuesday for the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and southern VT. The Wind Advisory remain in effect for the Taconics and western New England for today through 7 AM Tuesday. The storm system gathering strength over the southeastern United States with pressure falls occurring along the va/nc coast. Storm will move northeastward toward the mid Atlantic coast today. Precipitation associated with the storm will overspread the area today mainly during the afternoon which is a slower than previously expected as ridging noses southeastern across the region. Initially light rain and/or snow is expected with chances for sleet increasing as the precipitation become steadier and heavier toward evening as the we wet bulb. Generally less than a half of an inch of snow is expected by early evening with up to around an inch across the central and southeastern Catskills. Easterly winds already gusting across the higher terrain of western New England into the Taconics. Speed will increase to 15 to 25 mph today with gusts becoming strong at 40 to 50 mph. Another day with above normal temperatures with not much of a range. Looking at highs upper 20s to upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The storm system will move northeastward off the mid Atlantic coast tonight and will pass to the south of Long Island Tuesday. It`s a very complicated forecast as guidance as not come in agreement and QPF amounts are high. The NAM continues to bring a warm nose in aloft across the area tonight while the GFS is colder. Collaboration was to use a blended forecast and this overall resulted in colder solution the inherited forecast and higher snowfall totals. The bulk of the precipitation and snowfall will occur tonight as the associated strong low level jet moves in and across the region. Snowfall of 4 to 6 inches north and west of the Capital District and across portions of southern VT is expected tonight with lesser amounts to the southern and east as precipitation types will vary more through the storm. At this time based on the expected thermal profiles looking total snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches across the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga region, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Helderbergs, eastern Catskills and much of southern VT. Four to 6 inches across the rest of southern VT and the Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills and 2 to 4 inches in the Capital District into portion of the mid Hudson Valley with lesser amounts farther to the southeast. The steadier and heavier precipitation is expected to taper off by Tuesday afternoon hence the change in the expiration time of the winter weather advisories. Little additional snowfall is expected in the afternoon. However still looking at a variety of p-types snow, rain and sleet. Again no big change in temperatures tonight and Tuesday. Will turn colder Tuesday night as the storm moves off to the northeast with northwest and decreased cloud cover; lows in the 20s. Easterly winds will be at their strongest tonight as the region is squeezed between the ridge to the northeast and deepening storm as it moves off the mid Atlantic coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At the start of the extended period, a brief period of ridging will be in place for Wednesday morning. However, a fast moving storm system will quickly be approaching from the Great Lakes for late in the day into Wednesday night. This storm, a clipper-type storm, will be a moisture starved northern stream system. With a s-sw flow ahead of this system, temps will reach the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area for Wednesday with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Some rain showers will be possible by late in the day, mainly for areas north of the Mohawk River, although the best chance will likely be on Wednesday night. As colder air works into the region, the rain showers may change to snow showers before precip ends by Thursday morning, but QPF will be very light due to the limited moisture available. Behind this front, an upper level trough will be situated over the Northeast for Thursday into the weekend. This will allow gradually colder air to work into the region, with temps lowering from the mid 30s to mid 40s on Thursday into the mid 20s to mid 30s for Friday into the weekend. As colder air continues to work into the region aloft, some lake-enhanced and upslope snow showers will be possible, mainly for across the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and southern Vermont for the late-week period. A few passing snow showers/flurries will also be possible from the time to time across the Lake George-Saratoga Region and Capital Region as well, although any accumulations looks mainly limited to northern and western parts of the area, especially across the higher elevations. Sky cover will be mostly cloudy for the majority of the region due to the lake-enhanced precip around, but the best chance for seeing some breaks will be across the mid-Hudson Valley and Northwestern Connecticut. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Abundant low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will continue to allow for bkn-ovc cigs today. Precip looks to hold off until the evening hours, so it should remain dry through much of the day. Although there may be brief periods of VFR flying conditions this morning at KGFL/KALB, cigs will generally be around 2-3 kft, allowing for MVFR conditions through much of the day. E-NE winds will increase to 10-15 kts with some higher gusts at times. Steady precipitation will arrive from south to north during the evening hours. Precip looks to begin as rain (perhaps mixing with sleet) at KPOU by 00z. It should reach KPSF by 01-02z, KALB by 02z and KGFL by 04z. At KPSF/KALB/KGFL, it looks to begin as a mix of snow/sleet, with precip gradually becoming more and more snow at KALB/KGFL towards 04z-06z. Some snow may even start to mix in at KPOU towards 06z at times as well. Once snow/sleet begins, flying conditions will become IFR for both vsbys and eventually cigs as well. The precip may become moderate to brief heavy in intensity for the late night hours as well, with the potential for LIFR conditions. NE winds will continue to be strong with sustained winds of 15-20 kts and gusts approaching 30 kts at times, mainly for KALB/KPSF. Precip will start to taper off and decrease in intensity towards 12z Tuesday, but flying conditions will continue to be IFR right into Tuesday morning. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN...SLEET. Wednesday: Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread precipitation will overspread the area today especially this afternoon and is forecast to taper off Tuesday morning. Expecting 1 to 1 1/2 inches of QPF across the forecast are occurring in variety of precipitation types. Snow is expected to be the dominate p-type north and west of the Capital District and across southern VT. Minor tidal flooding is forecast on the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie with the high tide cycle this evening. The latest MMEFS does not indicate flooding on any main stems rivers. Expecting within bank river rises are expected to occur. Looking at chances for rain and/or snow showers through Thursday then colder weather with chances for snow showers from Friday into next weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ054-061-066. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033-041>043-082>084. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013>015. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis HYDROLOGY...IAA

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