Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 011955 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 355 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will bring the chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain damaging winds or large hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Tornado Watch 313 is in effect for all of eastern New York and adjacent western New England until 10 PM this evening. A potent upper level shortwave is currently located over the eastern Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place over western New York and western Pennsylvania headed eastward. At the current time, skies are mostly cloudy over the region. Surface based CAPEs of 500 to 2000 j/kg are located from north to south across the region with surface dewpoints rising into the 60s to around 70, especially for southern parts of the Hudson Valley. 0-6 km bulk shear values rise to around 40 kts, mid level lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some storms to be strong to severe, with damaging winds, large hail and a possibility of tornadoes. The shower and thunderstorm activity will wind down this evening with cool conditions overnight in the wake of the cold front as the temperatures drop into the upper 40s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Dry and seasonable conditions are expected during the short term period as a large ridge of high pressure builds into and settles over the region. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 60s to upper 70s with lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s to lower 80s with lows Sunday night in the 50s. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Dry and mild conditions are in store for 4th of July fireworks displays. Seasonably hot conditions are in store for this period. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s Tuesday... with highs from the upper 70s to around 90 degrees Wednesday through Friday. Tuesday night lows will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s...with lows in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday nights. Low pressure passing off to the north on Friday will increase precip chances. Until then...conditions will remain dry.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern NY and western New England this afternoon into this evening. The front will move move east of the region overnight. High Pressure will be gradually building in from the western Great Lakes Region and Midwest tomorrow. VFR conditions will lower MVFR/IFR conditions in increasing showers and thunderstorms btwn 20Z-00Z/SAT ahead of the front. Some gusty winds are possible with the thunderstorms...and VRB15G35KT wind groups were used in TEMPOs for KPSF/KPOU/KALB with any thunderstorms. The thunderstorms should diminish prior to 02Z south and east of KALB. Appreciable low-level moisture in the boundary layer coupled with clearing skies will allow for some some MVFR mist/stratus to form. It could be IFR...but our confidence is not high enough to place in the TAFS this far out. Increasing west winds in the wake of the front coupled with subsidence should allow the CIGS/VSBYS to return to VFR levels btwn 12Z-14Z/SAT. The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 kts with gusts in the 20-25 kt range this afternoon...and then shift to the southwest to west at 5-10 kts this evening...before becoming west at 5-10 kts between 06Z-12Z. The winds will strengthen from the west at 10-15 kts in the late morning with gusts close to 25 kts. Outlook... Saturday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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A frontal boundary will bring the chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain damaging winds or large hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.
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Relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100 percent tonight, drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday, recover to 70 to 100 percent Saturday night, and drop to 30 to 45 percent on Sunday. Winds will be southwest around 10 mph tonight, west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph on Saturday, west at 10 to 15 mph diminishing to less than 5 mph after midnight Saturday night, and west at 10 to 15 mph on Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1 (Moderate Drought) categories. An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening. Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/11 NEAR TERM...11 SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...11 HYDROLOGY...11

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