Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 281712 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 112 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Behind a departing cold front, dry weather is expected for most of the area today into the weekend; however, some rainfall is possible across far southern areas as low pressure passes by to the south. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler than normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cirrus will continue to stream across region this afternoon and diurnal cumulus clouds have developed across the higher terrain. Looking at mostly to partly sunny skies this afternoon with temperatures once again below normal but only by around 5 degrees. Have maintained slight chance pops across the southern portion of our southern most counties. Adjustments were made based on observations data and trends; forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A compact, upper low is forecast to move from the western Great Lakes today to the Delmarva by tomorrow morning. Cyclogenesis will occur on the lee side of the Mid-Atlantic Appalachians, forming a surface low near the Delmarva/NJ coastline by 12Z/Sat. The surface low, in conjunction with the upper low, will lift northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic to New England coastline Saturday into Sunday. The system and upper trof axis will get elongated along the coastline with the best dynamics generally remaining offshore. Fortunately, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry through this period. There is a chance for some showers across the southern portions of Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties late today into Saturday afternoon as the upper low feature passes by to our south. There will also be plenty of cloud cover across the southern third of the forecast area through Saturday evening. With the system to the east, north to northeast flow will ensue, advecting in drier and cooler air. Lows Friday night will be fairly chilly up north, in the low to mid 50s, but mild down south, in the low 60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s and low 70s area wide. Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 50s, possibly the upper 40s across the highest terrain. Though, cloud cover could keep temperatures even cooler than forecast during the day Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A rather tranquil period of weather with seasonable temperatures through the long term forecast. The second half of the weekend looks like summer as short wave ridge axis is expected to slide across the region with H850 temperatures near +12 to +14C. This should allow for valley temperatures to approach 80F with mainly 70s elsewhere under a good deal of July sunshine. A weakening trough axis approaches on Monday. Due the weakening nature of this feature and lack of distinct wave aloft as the flow becomes more northwesterly, an isolated convective element may develop but too low of a probability as we will keep the weather dry for now. Temperatures continue to moderate with a return of low level moisture as dewpoints climb back toward 60F. Monday night into Tuesday, flow aloft becomes a bit more cyclonic as that weak boundary could become a focus for isolated to scattered convection through the daylight hours Tuesday. Rather warm and humid conditions are expected with highs into the 80s and dewpoints into the 60s. A stronger frontal boundary is expected to approach for the mid and late week. This will serve to increase southerly winds and warmer with more moist conditions advecting into the local area. This will increase the probabilities for showers/thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will dominate throughout the TAF period. Cloud cover for the rest of the day will be areas of high cirrus and a few-sct VFR cumulus. A slight chance that KPOU could see some sprinkles or a light shower late this evening into tonight as low pressure organized well to the south, but probability for vis restriction is too low to include in the TAFs. Drier air filtering in on northeast flow should mitigate fog potential tonight, although some patchy shallow fog cannot be totally ruled out aside from at KPOU. Drier air will continue to filter in on northeast winds with moisture associated with a low pressure system remaining well to the south. Should see even less cumulus Saturday than Friday. Winds this afternoon will be from the northwest to northeast mainly at 8 kt or less. Winds becoming light northeasterly overnight. Northeasterly winds increase to around 10 kt late Saturday afternoon with a few gusts to around 20 kt possible, especially at KPOU. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier weather is expected to take hold today into the weekend, although isolated showers are possible across the southern portions of the forecast area late today into Saturday. RH values will fall in the mid-40s to mid-50s range this afternoon. It will be progressively drier into Sunday, with RH values bottoming out around 40 percent by Sunday. North- northeasterly winds could become a bit breezy on Saturday, gusting to around 25 mph at times. && .HYDROLOGY... Conditions will generally be dry today into the weekend, but some periods of rainfall may impact areas around the mid-Hudson Valley and Northwest Connecticut Friday night into Saturday. Models continue to keep the heavier rainfall south of the forecast area, with generally light amounts of 0.15" or less expected. Trends will continue to be monitored as there will be a sharp cutoff in precipitation amounts, so a slight northward shift in the storm track could result in increased QPF totals. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OKeefe/Thompson/JVM NEAR TERM...IAA/Thompson/JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...Thompson/JVM HYDROLOGY...Thompson/JVM

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