Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 200528 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 128 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate our weather into early next week with temperatures continuing to be above normal. Jose will remain well offshore of the southeast New England coast into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Reduced pops as showers associated with the outer bands of Tropical Storm Jose dissipate as the move into the drier air across the local area. As of the 11 pm advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center Jose was moving northeastward at 9 mph. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecast and other details on Jose. Northeast winds will increase late tonight especially to the south and east of the Capital District. Meanwhile the quasi-stationary boundary to our northwest will continue to weaken as it tries to move southeastward. Another mild night with lows from mid 50s to mid 60s; these readings are 10-15 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Jose continues a slow motion to the northeast on Wednesday, then takes up residence well southeast of the southeast New England coast through the remainder of the period. Jose impacts here will be nil. Ridging will build into the area at all levels of the atmosphere through Friday. This will bring well above normal temperatures. Temperatures will run about 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The period is expected to be characterized by dry weather with temperatures warmer than normal, possibly significantly so. Ample ridging over the eastern CONUS and associated subsidence will result in persistent high pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures over eastern New York and western New England through the beginning of next week. There is still some uncertainty with respect to the track of Jose, which is expected to be post-tropical during the long term period. It is something to keep an eye on, but model consensus has the wind/rain associated with Jose staying offshore and out of our forecast region for the long term period. Otherwise, the main story should be the warm temperatures running 10- 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. (GFS and Euro both show 500 mb 590dm heights in play at Albany on Sunday night. A not comprehensive check of sounding data this summer shows only one observation with 500mb heights getting to 590dm - 00z June 12.) With the aforementioned anomalous ridge, likely bolstered by Jose`s outflow, high temperatures should be in the upper 70s/low 80s in the higher terrain and low to upper 80s in valley regions. Dewpoints throughout the period will be in the mid 50s to low 60s resulting in humid conditions. Apparent temperatures will creep into the upper 80s late this weekend into early next week, making the heat quite oppressive for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Terminals remain on outer periphery of TC Jose`s wind and cloud field tonight. More of a straightforward forecast for KPSF/KPOU which are influenced more by Jose with denser clouds and a fairly steady wind. Both those factors should keep fog out of those terminals, with MVFR stratus expected to persist at KPSF and borderline MVFR/VFR at KPOU. KALB is closer to the edge of the cloud shield, but enough mid and high clouds and a breeze expected to mitigate fog potential there as well. At KGFL, did see winds briefly calm out resulting in IFR BR, but it`s since bounced back up. Expect variable conditions there with just a few-sct high clouds. Will likely see vsby go back down to IFR if winds calm out again, so have placed a TEMPO in the TAFs for that potential. A few light showers cannot be ruled out at KPSF/KPOU but are unlikely to result in much vsby change. Mainly VFR expected for the majority of the daylight hours today to the end of the TAF period as Jose continues to drift northeastward and the terminals remain on its periphery. KPSF may see MVFR linger a bit longer into the afternoon. Winds will be from the north to northeast through the period. Speeds will be up to 10 kt for the rest of the night, increasing to around 10 kt during the daylight hours with some gusts to around 20 kt at KPSF/KPOU closer to Jose`s circulation. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Some showers associated with Jose are possible for areas south and east of the Capital District into Wednesday. The weather is then expected to be fair and dry Wednesday night into early next week with temperatures continuing to be above normal. Relative humidity recovery tonight and Wednesday night will be 90-100 percent. Minimum values Wednesday afternoon are expected to be 60-75 percent. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/OKeefe NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/OKeefe SHORT TERM...OKeefe LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe HYDROLOGY...IAA/OKeefe

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