Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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440 FXUS61 KALY 180959 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 459 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably cold and mainly dry weather is expected through today, except for some lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks. An upper level disturbance may bring additional snow showers tonight into early Friday for areas mainly north and west of Albany. Fair weather, with a gradual warming trend is expected for this upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 400 AM EST...Tranquil conditions with cold temperatures exist across the region early this morning, as a small area of high pressure has allowed for decoupling of winds and good radiational cooling conditions with a fresh snow pack in place. Temperatures are mainly in the single digits to near zero. Skies are mainly clear, although mostly cloudy conditions occurring across the western and southern Adirondacks due to moisture off Lake Ontario. These areas should remain mostly cloudy through much of the day, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. There will be increasing chances for lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks today, as the surface ridge of high pressure flattens out and westerly flow becomes better aligned in the low levels. Conditional lake-induced instability will yield mainly scattered snow showers over northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties, with greater coverage north and west of Old Forge closer to the Tug Hill. The lake effect activity should be light due to very low inversion heights of around 850 mb. So only dusting to an inch of snow is expected across this limited area. Elsewhere it will be dry with seasonably cold temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A fast-moving and compact short wave trough will approach from the upper Great Lakes and move across the region tonight. The main forcing will be north of Albany, with limited moisture associated with this system. Will mention isolated to scattered snow showers with the passage of the disturbance, with the better chances for some minor accumulations across the western/southern Adirondacks. Areas from around the Capital District south will just see an increase in cloud cover. On Friday, it will be mainly dry in wake of the disturbance with gradually decreasing cloud cover. There still could be a few light lake effect/upslope snow showers over the western Adirondacks, with only a dusting in some spots. Temperatures will start to moderate, although with the fresh snow pack in place the moderation will be tempered on Friday with highs expected to be near normal in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Dry and tranquil conditions forecast for Friday night through Saturday night, with more of a moderation in temperature. Even overnight lows will start to warm to above normal readings Friday night, with even milder temperatures on Saturday as warmer air aloft moves in. Still, with the snow on the ground we will need decent mixing to allow temps to reach forecast highs, but this appears likely based on the expected pressure gradient with breezy westerly flow developing. Will mention upper 30s to mid 40s, which will allow for some snow melt to occur. Temperatures will drop back below freezing Saturday night with 20s in most areas, which is still well above normal for January. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Guidance remains in fairly good agreement with regards to the longwave pattern that nearly zonal flow across the region will be replaced by ridging occurring ahead of an approaching closed low Monday. The closed low is expected to pass over the Great Lakes region sometime Monday night into Tuesday night with it deepening as northern and southern stream energy interact. Guidance is similar with the track but differ with the timing. Have used guidance from the Weather Prediction Center for the timing which favors the slower ECMWF over the faster GFS. Also of note, guidance has trended colder with temperatures but still above normal Sunday through Tuesday. Indications are the system should occluded as it moves through. With the passage of the system there is agreement a colder, seasonable airmass will be ushered back in. Mainly dry weather Sunday with above normal temperatures with highs mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Increasing chances for some light warm air advection precipitation Sunday night and more so Monday. The synoptic forcing looks rather weak as will still have ridging aloft. Initially will be cold enough for snow with some mixed precipitation expected before a change over to mainly cold rain on Monday with highs only in the 30s. Best chances for precipitation are expected Monday night and Tuesday. P-types get complicated for Monday night as temperatures should drop off some and but be mainly in the 30s. At this time, expecting rain and snow with some sleet. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 40s ahead of the occluded boundary Tuesday for plain rain to occur across the local area except across the western and southern Adirondacks where temperatures should stay in the 30s so rain/snow expected. At this time expecting around an inch of QPF but not all as rain so there is much uncertainty on what the impact could be the ice jams in the area. Steady precipitation expected to taper off to snow showers Tuesday night as colder air is ushered back into the region. With strong cold advection temperatures expected to drop into the teens and 20s. The threat for isolated to scattered snow showers continues in the cyclonic flow in the wake of the system especially along the favored westerly upslope areas of the western Adirondacks and southern Greens of Vermont. High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be seasonable in the mid 20s to upper 30s.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The coastal low which has developed off the southeast coast will deepen and move northeastward out to sea through the TAF period. In the meantime, high pressure will continue to build in from the south and west at the surface. While aloft an upper level disturbance will move over the region late tonight which may result in some snow showers mainly north and west of the Hudson River Valley after 06Z/Friday. Mainly VFR conditions will dominate. Mainly clear skies overnight with some lower level stratocumulus around 3-3.5 kft AGL expected to impact KALB/KPSF/KGFL later this morning. Cirrus clouds will stream in this evening. Light to calm winds overnight with a westerly flow developing Thursday and increasing to 9-13 knots with gusts mainly in the teens at KALB and KPSF during the day. Outlook... Thursday Night to Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. && .HYDROLOGY... Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place. A gradual warming trend will occur beginning this weekend, although the degree of warming is not expected to be as significant as what occurred last week. We will monitor trends in temperatures due to potential impacts on existing ice jams. In terms of precipitation, only some snow showers are expected through Friday, with generally dry conditions expected over the upcoming weekend. A period of mixed precipitation and/or rain is possible early next week, although details on precipitation types and amounts are uncertain at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...IAA/Wasula AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.