Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 230948 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 548 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Post-Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures could reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge strengthens overhead. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 545 AM EDT, quick update this morning to freshen up temperatures and sky cover based on recent obs. Additionally, fog remains contained to the Mohawk Valley region, per latest GOES-16 imagery. Details regarding todays` forecast follow... Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have dropped into the 40s across the high terrain and into the 50s elsewhere. Even with small dew point depression spreads, not much fog is evident on satellite imagery early this morning. The latest GOES-16 nighttime microphysics channel shows some valley fog across the Mohawk Valley. Additional patchy valley fog remains possible through, as dawn approaches. Today will be a warm and sunny day as high pressure at the surface and aloft strengthens overhead. Temperatures will be well above normal, reaching the low to mid 80s. The potential would be there for temps to reach the 90s with the strength of this ridge, but the sun angle and daytime heating/mixing is limited for the first full day of autumn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through Monday night as ridging strengthens both at the surface and aloft. Increased moisture will begin creeping into the area overnight tonight, allowing for the potential for fog development, especially in the river valleys. Temperatures overnight look to only drop into the low 60s. Fog and overnight mild temperatures are expected again Monday night. Sunday and Monday will be very warm and muggy with record high temperatures possible both days. The question is whether we hit 90 in some areas either day or both days. The high terrain locations should see temperatures in the mid 80s, whereas the valley locations could see upper 80s to lower 90s. Currently, we are forecasting record highs of 90 degrees both days at Albany. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Above normal temperatures and dry weather will open the extended forecast, but after the mid week temperatures transition to more seasonable levels with increased chances of showers. Tuesday into Wednesday...Mid and upper level ridging remains over the forecast area with Hurricane Maria near or just off the East Coast. The latest 00Z runs of the GFS and Canadian GGEM are a little closer to the mid-Atlantic Coast by WED, while the 00Z ECMWF is a little slower and further offshore. The ridge does begin to weaken and break down by the mid-week with the approaching cold front and an upper level trough. Tuesday should be predominately dry, and humid with sfc dewpts in the 60s. H850 temps are still 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal based on the 00Z GEFS. Max temps are still expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s in the valleys, and upper 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. Another warm and muggy night is expected Tue night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. There is a slight chc of showers over the extreme southeast portion of the forecast area with any low-level convergence on the outer periphery of Maria`s circulation. A cold front continues to approach from the west WED. The low-level forcing is not strong until you get closer to the frontal axis. Isolated to scattered showers are possible late in the day, some of which could be from the outer periphery of Maria once again, especially south and east of the Capital District. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts on Maria. It will still be humid on WED, and temps will be above normal, but an increase in clouds will yield highs a tad lower in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations, except for lower to mid 70s over the higher terrain. Wed night into Thu...Decent consensus from the medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance that a cold front will move across the region during this time frame with scattered showers. Temps will also start to cool down closer to late Sept normals. A strong mid and upper level trough will set up over the Great Lakes Region and south-central Canada with height falls translating downstream into the Northeast. The better chance of showers will be north and west of the mid-Hudson Valley on THU. Strong H850 cold advection will be occurring THU pm with temps falling to +10C to +15C from northwest to southeast across the region. After lows in the 50s to lower 60s with a few upper 40s in the southern Adirondacks, expect highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s over the mtns and northwest of the Capital Region, and mid and upper 70s over the Hudson River Valley, Capital Region, southern Taconics, southern Berkshires and NW CT. Thu night into Fri...Broad mid and upper cyclonic flow sets up across the Great Lakes Region into NY and New England. Short-wave energy translating through the mid and upper level trough will kick off isolated to scattered lake enhanced and upslope showers especially north and west of the Tri Cities. H850 temps will be back to reality for late Sept in the +2C to +7C range across the region with breezy northwest winds. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s with highs in the mid to upper 60s in the valleys with a few 70F readings in the mid-Hudson Valley, and mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Post-Tropical Storm Jose will slowly drift further south and east of the southeast New England Coast and Cape Cod today, as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region over the Northeast today into tonight. KGFL/KPSF may have a brief period of IFR/MVFR radiative mist between 08Z-11Z. A TEMPO group was used to address some shallow radiative mist at KGFL in the IFR range. The low-levels are dry which should keep it brief. KPSF has some low VFR stratus around early this morning, which should dissipate, and a brief period of MVFR mist to around 3SM is possible. VFR conditions are expected for the late morning into afternoon with a few cumulus in the 4-5kft AGL range and a few-sct cirrus. The skies will be mainly clear this evening. VFR conditions are expected the next 24-hrs at KALB/KPOU until 06Z/SUN. Some stratus on the back edge of clouds swirling around Jose will be in the 3.5-4 kft AGL at KPOU early this morning, but will become sct-bkn between 07Z-10Z with sct-bkn cirrus persisting. For the afternoon, expect a few cumulus around with few-sct cirrus before the skies clear for tonight. The winds will be light and variable in direction 4 kts or less this morning. The winds will become north to northwest at 4-8 kts this afternoon, and then become light to calm tonight. Outlook... Saturday Night through Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Post-Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures could reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge strengthens overhead. RH values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range Saturday night and Sunday night. RH values will drop to 40 to 60 percent this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. North to northeast winds will become light and variable Saturday through Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast well into next week as high pressure dominates. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures will be possible Sunday and Monday. Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 24/25: Albany NY: September 24th/Sunday: 87 degrees 1961 September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY: September 24th/Sunday: 86 degrees 1961 September 25th/Monday: 84 degrees 2007 Records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY: September 24th/Sunday: 91 degrees 1959 September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/JVM NEAR TERM...JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...NAS/JVM HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM CLIMATE...

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