Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 172051 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 351 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slide across the region tonight. A warm front approaches Saturday with clouds and the increase chance for wet conditions later in the day into Saturday night. A strong cold front pushes through by Sunday morning with rain showers mixing with snow along with increasing winds. Strong gusty winds and colder temperatures will occur through Sunday night. Then lake effect snow will develop Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 330 PM EST...A narrow ridge of high pressure will move across the region through this evening with diminishing winds and clear skies. As seen in the GOES16 data, higher clouds will begin to filter into the region late tonight. As current dewpoints are into the teens, we will favor the warmer side of the guidance envelope, especially if the upstream clouds filter in faster.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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...Strong to potentially damaging winds possible behind a cold front Sunday... Surface ridge axis slides east of the region Saturday morning as moisture profiles remain quite dry per the average moisture profiles. Even the latest 18Z NAM is even drier as we will delay PoPs/Wx a bit longer through Saturday morning. Then strong isentropic lift and warm advection will occur Saturday afternoon as low level jet magnitudes climb toward or higher than 50kts. Periods of rain/drizzle will evolve and some of the onset wet bulb processes may bring a wintry mix into portions of the region. However, this should be rather short lived as strong warm advection will continue to warm the column for mainly rain. This continues into Saturday night as surface low and strong upper level impulse approaches as surface low tracks across upstate NY. Then strong cold advection with the passage of the cold front by Sunday morning sunrise west of the Hudson. This is where a transition toward rain/snow to snow showers and possible squalls will occur as H850 temperatures drop back below 0C across the entire region. The main story of the day will be the increasing winds. Forecast BUFKIT profiles suggest mixing layer heights climb toward 5K feet where 50+kts reside. Furthermore, per the forecast trajectories, some funneling down the Mohawk into the Capital District, Taconics and Berkshires could enhance the wind magnitudes. At this time, we will continue to highlight into the HWO as future guidance may warrant headlines.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Sunday night through Monday...The extended forecast opens with Lake Effect snowfall impacting locations west of the Hudson River Valley. There is still some disagreement with the guidance on the orientation of the bands and the favored low-level trajectory. Our forecast remains close to the latest NAM/GFS with west to northwest flow, and the Schoharie Valley and west-central Mohawk Valley being overspread with snow showers late Sunday through early Monday, and then the band/bands lifting northward into the western Adirondacks, as the low to mid level flow backs to the west with high pressure building in from the Carolinas. Some of the lake effect snow showers may extends into the Capital Region, northern and central Taconics, and the Berkshires with light accums. Locations further to the west may receive light to localized moderate amounts of snow. Lake effect snow showers should end by late Monday night as the ridging extends northward into our region. Highs Monday will mainly be in the upper 20s to mid 30s in most locations, the exception will be the Capital District, Mid Hudson Valley, and southern Litchfield CTY where some upper 30s to around 40F readings are possible. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the 20s. Tuesday...Mild, dry, and mostly clear conditions will be present with high pressure building in from the south. Highs for Tuesday will be about 5 degrees above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s. Wednesday through Friday...High pressure will try to stay in place to our south with a couple quick bursts of energy dropping down from Canada through the Northeast US. Going with slight chance PoPs north of the Capital region for now as there is considerable uncertainty between global models at this point. Highs look to be slightly below normal in the 30s/40s with lows generally in the upper 20s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly clear conditions continuing into the early evening with high pressure controlling the weather. High to mid level clouds will begin to move into the region after 06Z Saturday. The leading edge of patchy light rain begins to push into the region after 16Z Saturday and indicated VCSH everywhere after 16Z with ceilings lowering to around 5000 feet. Gusty northwest winds of 10-18 Kt with some gusts just over 20 Kt range through this afternoon. The stronger gusts are expected at KPSF/KALB. The winds will decrease in by evening to around 10 kts, and they will become light to calm after 02Z. Winds shift to the south by daybreak and increase to around 10 to 15 Kt Saturday morning. Outlook... Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Windy Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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Cold and dry conditions in store for tonight, as high pressure builds eastward across the region. A low pressure system will approach from the lower Great Lakes on Saturday, bringing the next chance for widespread precipitation. The storm system will intensify Saturday night as it tracks northeast through the Saint Lawrence River Valley, and will drag a cold front across our region by Sunday morning. Increasing wind magnitudes and colder air will filter in by Sunday night, with lake effect snow developing downwind of Lake Ontario.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers through the next week. High pressure will briefly build in today before a strong low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes Region on Saturday. Widespread rain may begin as a mix with snow in the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks but then quickly change to to all rain that will continue through Saturday night. A cold front will sweep through Sunday morning with additional rain changing to snow over the higher terrain. At this time, total QPF from this system looks to range from a half inch to near an inch. A colder air mass will then build in Sunday night through early next week, with some lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario affecting the western Adirondacks and Mohawk/Schoharie Valleys. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV www.weather.gov/albany

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