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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 192341
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
741 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Jose will remain well offshore of the southeast New England
coast into the weekend. Some showers are possible across the
southeast forecast area from Jose tonight and Wednesday. But in
general high pressure will dominate our weather into early next
week with temperatures continuing to be above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Hurricane Jose continues to inch slowly north at 8 mph this
evening as its outer bands of clouds and some showers moving
through the Berks, NW CT and southern Taconics. Meanwhile along
a quasi-stationary frontal boundary some showers were just
upstream of the Dacks. Per the HRRR/RAP13 and experimental
GOES-16 data, seems we are need to make some updates to the
current forecast. We will reduce the PoPs/Wx grids as subsidence
around the hurricane seems to be influencing our chances of wet
weather (downward trend), however, clouds remain along with some
low level wind gradient. So a challenge where fog may develop
tonight as we will favor the northwestern 1/3rd of the CWA.
Otherwise, minor tweaks to the temperatures at this time.

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecast and
other details on Jose. Low temperatures tonight will be above
normal with readings ranging from mid 50s (rural areas/higher
elevations) to mid 60s (urban locations). These temperatures are
10-15 degrees above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Jose continues a slow motion to the northeast on Wednesday, then
takes up residence well southeast of the southeast New England
coast through the remainder of the period. Jose impacts here
will be nil.

Ridging will build into the area at all levels of the atmosphere
through Friday. This will bring well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures will run about 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period is expected to be characterized by dry weather with
temperatures warmer than normal, possibly significantly so. Ample
ridging over the eastern CONUS and associated subsidence will result
in persistent high pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures
over eastern New York and western New England through the beginning
of next week.

There is still some uncertainty with respect to the track of Jose,
which is expected to be post-tropical during the long term period.
It is something to keep an eye on, but model consensus has the
wind/rain associated with Jose staying offshore and out of our
forecast region for the long term period.

Otherwise, the main story should be the warm temperatures running 10-
15 degrees above normal for this time of year. (GFS and Euro
both show 500 mb 590dm heights in play at Albany on Sunday
night. A not comprehensive check of sounding data this summer
shows only one observation with 500mb heights getting to 590dm -
00z June 12.) With the aforementioned anomalous ridge, likely
bolstered by Jose`s outflow, high temperatures should be in the
upper 70s/low 80s in the higher terrain and low to upper 80s in
valley regions. Dewpoints throughout the period will be in the
mid 50s to low 60s resulting in humid conditions. Apparent
temperatures will creep into the upper 80s late this weekend
into early next week, making the heat quite oppressive for this
time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Very challenging forecast tonight with respect to MVFR/IFR
conditions. Seems shower potential appears to be reducing as
subsidence around the periphery of Jose may be having an
effect. However, mid and high cloud coverage remains along with
a surface gradient keeping winds a bit up. So just how much
clearing takes place to the north of ALB for more fog/stratus to
develop and MVFR CIGS south and east of ALB overnight will
evolve. For now, TEMPO groups for IFR conditions at KGFL with
MVFR conditions for the remainder of the region tonight.

Conditions should improve through Wednesday to VFR with a
northerly wind and gusts to near 20kts at times.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some showers associated with Jose are possible for areas south
and east of the Capital District into Wednesday. The weather is
then expected to be fair and dry Wednesday night into early
next week with temperatures continuing to be above normal.

Relative humidity recovery tonight and Wednesday night will be
90-100 percent. Minimum values Wednesday afternoon are expected
to be 60-75 percent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKeefe
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...OKeefe
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...BGM/JVM
FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe
HYDROLOGY...IAA/OKeefe

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