


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --623 FXUS61 KALY 291638 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build east across the region today, providing dry and seasonable conditions. As the high shifts east off the New England coast on Monday, a very warm air mass will move in. A cold front will bring increasing humidity along with showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Drier weather returns on Wednesday behind the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front has crossed the Capital District and is moving through SE NY into W. New England at this time. While it is a dry frontal passage, there is a noticeable drop in dewpoints behind the front from 65-70F to 55-60F. Dewpoints will gradually lower through the day due to dry advection and surface high pressure building in from the west. Lingering clouds(mostly over higher terrain) and/or any patchy fog around early this morning will dissipate, leaving mostly sunny skies by late morning into this afternoon. High temperatures look close to normal with 70s in the mountains and 80s in the valleys. Humidity levels will be noticeably lower than Sat. With high pressure in place tonight, mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected. Patchy fog may occur in favored sheltered areas. Lows look to be near normal ranging from lower/mid 50s in the mountains to upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Summertime heat returns on Monday with high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. - Showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday associated with a cold front passage. Some stronger storms may occur from around Albany south and east. Discussion: As high pressure shifts east off the coast, a return SW flow will result in a quick warming of the air mass. 850 mb temperature anomalies will increase to +1 to +2 STDEV. With good mixing conditions, high temperatures should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in most lower elevation areas. NBM probs for > 90F in lowest elevations are 50-90%. However, the moisture return looks more delayed now, with peak dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s late in the afternoon. This results in maximum feels-like temperatures of 90-95F in valleys, so values > 95F are not widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Chances for showers will increase Mon night (especially after midnight), ahead of a warm front advancing from the south/west. This front is really more like a dewpoint boundary, with very humid conditions developing in wake of the front by early Tue morning. It will be a warm/muggy night. The system`s cold front and associated upper level trough will already by moving through western/northern NY Tue morning, and progressing eastward through the rest of the day. Ahead of the cold front temperatures should reach the lower to mid 80s in valleys with limited sunshine expected. Guidance showing marginal instability developing ahead of the front, with 1000-1500 J/Kg SBCAPE along with 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kt. Based on the current expected timing, a few strong to severe storms may occur from around the Capital District south/east during the afternoon to early evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) outlook. There is a also a threat for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding as PWAT anomalies rise to around +2 to +3 STDEV. Drying will occur Tue night behind the cold front. It will be mild, with gradually lowering humidity. Lows range from the upper 50s in the Adirondacks to mid 60s in the Hudson Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term period begins at 12z Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure at the surface nosing in from the west, with broad upper troughing aloft. It will still be on the warm side with temperatures in the mid 80s for most valley areas, thanks in part to deep-mixing, but it should be less humid than the previous couple days behind the cold front. An isolated afternoon shower can`t be ruled out over the high terrain areas north of I-90 with the upper trough aloft, but overall lack of forcing should result in a mainly dry day. Lows will be mainly in the 50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys). Thursday, a compact shortwave embedded within the longwave trough looks to dive south into eastern Canada, and possibly upstate NY, helping to drive a cold front southwards through our region. Due to the small-scale nature of this feature, it likely will not be well resolved until high-res guidance becomes available, so there remains some uncertainty in the track and evolution of this feature. There are also differences in the timing of the frontal passage as well. Despite this uncertainty, we would be remiss to not mention that there is at least some potential for stronger storms given potential overlap of strong upper and lower forcing, decent shear, and at least some modest instability. Will continue to monitor closely over the coming days. Consensus is that any convection would come to and end Thursday evening with lows dropping back into the 50s to around 60 Thursday night. Friday and Saturday...High pressure and upper ridging build overhead. Friday will feature near to even slightly below normal temperatures and dry conditions, but a warmer airmass returns Saturday with highs potentially well into the 80s for valley areas. A few afternoon/evening showers or a thunderstorm may be possible ahead of a cold front Saturday for western areas, but confidence is low as many sources of guidance keep any convection well to our west, with a better chance on Sunday for showers/storms. Looking to days 8-14, the CPC is leaning towards above normal temperatures and precip. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through early tonight with ceilings generally in the 3500-5000 ft range, as high pressure passes overhead. These clouds will diminish overnight with clear skies expected. Northwest winds around 5-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts this afternoon will dimininsh and become calm overnight, increasing favorabilty of patchy to areal coverage of dense fog overnight. While all terminals will have potential to see fog, highest confidence for impacts is at KPSF/KGFL where a breif period of IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible Monday morning. This for will burn off by mid morning with VFR conditions returning through the remainder of the period. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Speck