


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --022 FXUS61 KALY 100509 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... With a muggy air mass still in place, some showers will spread across southeastern areas for tonight. With a frontal boundary and upper level disturbance nearby, scattered thunderstorms are expected on Thursday and storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. It will remain warm and muggy for Friday through the weekend and some additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday with the primary risks being damaging wind gusts. In addition, thunderstorms may contain heavy rainfall, which may lead to a threat for poor drainage or urban flooding. Discussion: As of 218 PM EDT...Stalled surface boundary is situated just south of the region over the northern mid-Atlantic States. While it`s still fairly warm and muggy over the region, dewpoints are slightly lower compared to recent days with our area on the northern side of the boundary. Through this evening, a few isolated showers can`t be totally ruled out, but limited forcing should keep it dry for most areas, as the bulk of the activity through this evening will be occurring well south over the mid Atlantic States. After a warm afternoon, temps will be falling into the 60s for this evening into tonight. Overnight, there may be some additional showers that impact southern and eastern areas (mid Hudson Valley and western New England) as leftover convection over the mid Atlantic States lifts northeast for the late night hours. There could be some heavy downpours with this activity, although the 12z SPC HREF doesn`t show very high probabilities for rainfall greater than 1" per hour at this time. On Thursday, the boundary to the south will be lifting northward as a warm front. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will be sliding across southern Canada and will be located over eastern Ontario by the afternoon hours. With a warm and humid air mass in place and enough breaks of sun, there should be decent instability with about 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. 0-6 km bulk shear is around 30 kts earlier in the day, but will be falling into the 20-25 kt range by later in the day. CAMs suggest some scattered convection is expected and steep low level lapse rates will help promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Overall, storms won`t be overly organized and may be limited in coverage and strength, but a few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out. SPC has the area in a marginal risk for severe storms. With the high PWATs, relatively slow storm motion and high dewpoints, there could be some heavy downpours and isolated flooding (especially in urban and low lying areas) will be possible. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny on Thursday with highs in the 80s once again. Storms will diminish with the loss of daytime heating on Thursday evening, allowing for a quieter overnight period with lows in the 60s. The front looks to settle back south of the area for Friday into Friday night. Some additional showers are possible during peak heating on Friday, but any showers look fairly limited in coverage. A rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out but no strong storms are expected. Temps will continue to be similar to the past few days with highs well into the 80s in valley areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Typical summer weather is expected for the weekend into early next week. Have stayed closed to NBM POPs through the extended period with the best chances on Sunday and Monday thanks to an approaching upper level disturbance. Greatest coverage will likely be during the usual diurnally-forced afternoon and evening hours. There could be a threat for some stronger storms on Sunday or Monday, although the exact amounts of shear and instability are still unknown at this time. Daytime temps will likely be in the mid to upper 80s each day in valley areas with lows in the 60s. It should stay fairly humid through the period with dewpoints in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Through 06z Friday...A mix of conditions is expected early on for the terminals as a stationary front remains in place just to the south of the area. Rain showers associated with the front will primarily impact KPOU/KPSF through 10/12z. While cigs/vsbys could remain mostly in the VFR range, some intermittent reductions to MVFR could occur. To the north, patches of clear skies are working into KGFL, which will promote development of patchy fog in the terminal vicinity that will lead to long duration MVFR/IFR conditions, with low potential for LIFR vsbys depending on how much clouds can clear out. After 10/12z, some scattered MVFR cigs are possible mainly at KPSF as the shower complex continues to lift north into New England, though MVFR conditions should be fully in the terminal vicinity by 10/18z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are primarily expected once showers exit and fog burns off. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon, with PROB30 groups maintained at KALB/KGFL/KPSF for this activity. Activity will diminish by evening, though a renewed round of low stratus will spread west from New England across the terminals, with confidence in this TAF increasing of cigs dropping into MVFR levels for most towards the end of the period. Light to calm winds tonight will become southeasterly Thursday at 5-10 kt. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Speck