Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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640 FXUS61 KALY 201735 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 135 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into next week as high pressure dominates. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1237 PM EDT...Low stratus clouds enveloping much of the southeast half of the area early this afternoon, and not showing any signs of dissipating today. Otherwise, high level Cirrus clouds, somewhat dense at times, from Tropical Storm Jose are moving across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA this afternoon. Models suggest that a fairly dense cirrus canopy should be in place through the day. An isolated shower may pop up across southern VT this afternoon, but otherwise it will be dry with a persistent northerly breeze through the rest of the day. Temperatures are tracking closely to forecasts despite dense cirrus and stratus clouds, so will not make any changes. As far as Tropical Storm Jose goes, the storm continues to move northeast at around 8 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today with a decrease in forward speed along with gradual weakening. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecast and other details on Jose. Again, no impacts in our area from Jose. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The ridge over the eastern United States strengthens at all levels of the atmosphere and will result in fair and continued warm weather for the area. Tropical Storm Jose will meander off the east coast and continue to weaken. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecast and other details. It will not be a muggy/humid as dew points gradually drop eventually into the mid 40s to mid 50s. This will result in cooler nights compared to recent ones. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highly amplified flow pattern during the long term featuring a full- latitude trough over the western third of the country and anomalously strong ridge centered over the central and eastern Great Lakes and northeastern US. Per the latest GEFS, this ridge is forecast to be +1 to +2 SD at H500. As a result, expecting temperatures to run significantly above normal, with H850 temps averaging around 15-18C. This should lead to high temps in the 80s in the valleys, possibly approaching 90 in the warmest spots by Sunday. Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 60s Sunday into Tuesday, so it`ll feel quite summer-y. The moisture will also allow low temps to be well above normal values which are mainly in the 40s. The only fly in the ointment for the above scenario has to do with tropical cyclone activity. By the long term period, Jose will be post-tropical and likely continuing to weaken, but there is still uncertainty with its path. There are a non-trivial number of solutions that drift post-TC Jose back westward as the ridge builds, which could lead to increasing cloud cover and perhaps even showers over southern portions of the forecast area Sunday onward. However, will continue to keep the forecast dry and mainly sunny as even if a westward drift occurs, it may be too far south to impact our forecast area. Finally, will have to keep an eye on TC Maria toward the end of the period as it moves poleward in the vicinity of 75W. Still large model spread in both speed and track, with consensus keeping its impacts south of the forecast area through the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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For the most part, looking at VFR conditions through the period. However, there are exceptions. To start MVFR ceilings currently in place at KPSF and KPOU. Not expecting this to change much into tonight. Presence of lower clouds and breeze should preclude development of IFR BR/FG at these sites. KGFL should see least clouds and winds trending to calm overnight. These conditions look favorable for development of typical autumn IFR FG. Finally a light breeze at KALB through the night should maintain VFR conditions. All terminals should be VFR by 14-15Z Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into next week as high pressure dominates. Minimum relative humidity values will only be in the upper 50s to upper 60s this afternoon with higher values across western New England. A recovery to 90 to near 100 percent will occur tonight. Minimums are expected to be in the 50s Thursday afternoon. Winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts into the 20s today for areas south and east of the Capital District with lighter speed to the north and west. Winds will not be as strong Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into next week as high pressure dominates. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/OKeefe/JPV SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Thompson AVIATION...OKeefe FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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