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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
640
FXUS61 KALY 201735
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into
next week as high pressure dominates.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1237 PM EDT...Low stratus clouds enveloping much of the
southeast half of the area early this afternoon, and not showing
any signs of dissipating today. Otherwise, high level Cirrus
clouds, somewhat dense at times, from Tropical Storm Jose are
moving across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA this afternoon. Models
suggest that a fairly dense cirrus canopy should be in place
through the day. An isolated shower may pop up across southern
VT this afternoon, but otherwise it will be dry with a
persistent northerly breeze through the rest of the day.
Temperatures are tracking closely to forecasts despite dense
cirrus and stratus clouds, so will not make any changes.

As far as Tropical Storm Jose goes, the storm continues to move
northeast at around 8 mph. This general motion is expected to
continue today with a decrease in forward speed along with
gradual weakening. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center
for forecast and other details on Jose. Again, no impacts in
our area from Jose.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge over the eastern United States strengthens at all
levels of the atmosphere and will result in fair and continued
warm weather for the area. Tropical Storm Jose will meander off
the east coast and continue to weaken. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for forecast and other details.

It will not be a muggy/humid as dew points gradually drop
eventually into the mid 40s to mid 50s. This will result in
cooler nights compared to recent ones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highly amplified flow pattern during the long term featuring a full-
latitude trough over the western third of the country and
anomalously strong ridge centered over the central and eastern Great
Lakes and northeastern US. Per the latest GEFS, this ridge is
forecast to be +1 to +2 SD at H500. As a result, expecting
temperatures to run significantly above normal, with H850 temps
averaging around 15-18C. This should lead to high temps in the 80s
in the valleys, possibly approaching 90 in the warmest spots by
Sunday. Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 60s Sunday into
Tuesday, so it`ll feel quite summer-y. The moisture will also allow
low temps to be well above normal values which are mainly in the
40s.

The only fly in the ointment for the above scenario has to do with
tropical cyclone activity. By the long term period, Jose will be
post-tropical and likely continuing to weaken, but there is still
uncertainty with its path. There are a non-trivial number of
solutions that drift post-TC Jose back westward as the ridge builds,
which could lead to increasing cloud cover and perhaps even showers
over southern portions of the forecast area Sunday onward. However,
will continue to keep the forecast dry and mainly sunny as even if a
westward drift occurs, it may be too far south to impact our
forecast area. Finally, will have to keep an eye on TC Maria toward
the end of the period as it moves poleward in the vicinity of 75W.
Still large model spread in both speed and track, with consensus
keeping its impacts south of the forecast area through the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For the most part, looking at VFR conditions through the
period. However, there are exceptions. To start MVFR ceilings
currently in place at KPSF and KPOU. Not expecting this to
change much into tonight. Presence of lower clouds and breeze
should preclude development of IFR BR/FG at these sites. KGFL
should see least clouds and winds trending to calm overnight.
These conditions look favorable for development of typical
autumn IFR FG. Finally a light breeze at KALB through the night
should maintain VFR conditions.

All terminals should be VFR by 14-15Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG
WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into
next week as high pressure dominates.

Minimum relative humidity values will only be in the upper 50s
to upper 60s this afternoon with higher values across western
New England. A recovery to 90 to near 100 percent will occur
tonight. Minimums are expected to be in the 50s Thursday
afternoon.

Winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph with
gusts into the 20s today for areas south and east of the Capital
District with lighter speed to the north and west. Winds will
not be as strong Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected. An extended
stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into next week as
high pressure dominates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/OKeefe/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA