292
FXUS61 KALY 171056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
656 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair and dry weather today with
partly to mostly sunny conditions.  Clouds increase tonight with
some isolated to scattered light rain showers mainly west of the
Hudson River Valley ahead of a weakening cold front and an upper
level disturbance.  The first half of the weekend will feature more
clouds than sunshine with isolated to widely scattered showers, but
Sunday will turn dry and pleasant weather with temperatures trending
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EDT...A weak sfc anticyclone will slide
east/northeast of northern New England this morning. The pesky
coastal low has moved downstream of southern New England and
Long Island for no additional impact. Mid and upper level
ridging will be briefly over eastern NY and western New England
today.

Morning radiational/valley mist/fog dissipate quickly in the
Schoharie Valley and west of the Hudson River Valley with
partly to mostly sunny conditions expected as cirrus continues
to move in. Temps will rise quickly after a cool start. Mid and
high clouds will drift in ahead of the next weak cold front
associated with low pressure over south- central Ontario. This
boundary and the leading edge of the broad mid and upper level
trough will increase clouds...mainly mid and high clouds in the
late morning into the afternoon with perhaps a few sprinkles or
light showers reaching the western Dacks/western Mohawk Valley
towards sunset.

Max temps were accepted close to the warmer ECM MOS values with
highs in mid and upper 70s in the valleys with a few 80F
readings near KPOU. Mid 60s to lower 70s will be common over
the mountains and hilltowns. The winds will be light from the
east to southeast at 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...An upper level trough and a weak cold front approach
the eastern Great Lakes Region and western NY. Some isolated to
scattered showers with the front and the mid level short-wave
moving towards the southern Quebec will likely impact locations
west of I-87 overnight. The moisture convergence is weak and the
front weakens, so any pcpn will be light and scattered over or
near the southern Dacks, w-central Mohawk Valley, Schoharie
Valley and Catskills. Clouds increase over the rest of the
forecast area with lows falling into the lower to mid 50s with
some 40s over the higher terrain.

The diffuse mid level trough will be near or over the forecast
area on Saturday. The sfc trough/weak cold front will be to the
west. The better short-wave energy digs to the south of the
forecast area over the mid Atlantic States. More clouds than sun
is expected and some light isolated to widely scattered showers
are possible from the Berkshires, Capital Region and eastern
Catskills north and west. Temps were increased above the cooler
MAV/MET MOS numbers closer to the ECM MOS with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s in the lower elevations and 60s over the
mtns.

Saturday Night into Sunday...The guidance is differing slightly
in the evolution of the mid and upper level ridge (Rex Block)
building in from Plains/Midwest into NY/western New England and
the placement of a coastal low. We have gone to a drier trend
still Sat night with variable cloudiness and temps cooling into
the 40s to around 50F over the higher terrain and 50-55F in the
valleys. Heights increase aloft on Sunday with the folding over
ridge into the region. Some clouds and even sprinkles may linger
along and east of the CT River Valley. Most of the forecast
area should experience fair and dry weather with partly to
mostly sunny skies and temps trending above normal. Highs could
reach the upper 70s to around 80F in the Hudson and Mohawk
River Valleys with mid 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns
and near the CT River Valley.

A sfc anticyclone builds in over NY and PA with the high
amplitude ridge aloft. Near deal radiational cooling conditions
will set up with mostly clear skies and light to calm winds
with radiational/valley patchy mist/fog in spots. Lows will
fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A Rex Block amplifying across much of the East Coast will
ensure dry conditions for the start of the work week. Monday
will, therefore, be a mainly clear day with highs in the
mid/upper 70s to low 80s. One or two stray showers are possible
in the Southwest Adirondacks Monday night as an upper-level
disturbance and associated weak boundary pass by to the north,
but any precipitation that may develop would be very light in
nature. That said, cloud cover will increase a modest amount
mainly north of the Capital District Monday night, but skies
will remain partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low temperatures
Monday night will be in the 50s.

Clouds decrease Tuesday as the aforementioned system pushes further
east. Once again, another mainly clear day can be expected for much
of Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low and
possibly even mid 80s. Clouds will increase a bit Tuesday evening as
an upper-level shortwave a looks to pass and the attendant
surface low pass by to our north and west. Low temperatures
Tuesday night, similarly to those of Monday night will fall into
the 50s. By Wednesday, the Rex Block will begin to break down
in advance of an approaching upper-level trough and associated
frontal system. There remains some uncertainty in the timing of
this system, but general consensus points to a rain onset
Wednesday evening/night. Rain will last through the night
Wednesday into Thursday as the cold front passes through the
region, but it is unclear how long rain will persist upon the
complete frontal passage. Some sources of guidance point to
showers continuing through Thursday with troughing remaining
over the region while others indicate weak ridging that could
inflict subsidence and cut the duration short. For now,
maintained chance PoPs Thursday.

In addition to partly cloudy skies, Wednesday will feature highs in
the mid/upper 70s to low 80s. Wednesday night`s lows will be a few
degrees warmer in some areas compared to Monday and Tuesday night
with increased cloud cover. Expect 50s to low 60s. Thursday`s highs
will be the coolest of the period after the cool fropa. Temperatures
will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this morning with any fog having burned off with a
fair amount of sunlight due to primarily thin, high clouds
across much of the region. VFR conditions will persist
throughout the day today despite increasing clouds ahead of a
weakening frontal system and upper-level disturbance. However,
conditions look to remain dry outside of an isolated to
scattered shower or two especially at KGFL toward the end of the
period. However, kept this out of the TAFs for now due to low
confidence in shower coverage. Will make adjustments where
necessary with future updates.

Winds throughout the period will remain light out of the
northeast to start, but gradually shift to the east/southeast by
the end. Sustained speeds will range from 3-6 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant