763
FXUS61 KALY 200058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
858 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will bring dry weather, clearing skies,
and a warming trend through midweek with hot temperatures
possible Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching cold front will
see chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region late
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

As of 830pm, a pleasant and dry night continues across eastern
NY and western New England this evening with just some scattered
stratocumulus clouds that will continue diminishing as we move
past peak heating. Temperatures will remain mild in the 60s and
70s this evening despite clearing skies/radiational cooling
given the mild air mass in place and elevated dew points in the
50s. After Midnight temperatures will drop into the 50s and
start to approach their respective dew points leading to patchy
fog formation. Guidance suggests winds may stay elevated in some
north to south valley areas enough that fog stays patchy. Fog
coverage should peak by 08 - 11 UTC before the strong May sun
kicks in and burns it off shortly after sunrise. Main adjustment
to this forecast was raise temperatures a bit this evening
based on latest hourly observations/trends.

Previous discussion...Upper ridging and surface high pressure
building into the region will bring continued dry weather and
comfortable temperatures through tonight. An upper low over the
North Atlantic has brought persistent overcast to much of New
England, while to the west of the Taconics and Greens, much
clearer skies have spread across the region aside from enhanced
coverage of fair-weather cumulus over areas of higher terrain.

Following afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across
western New England and in higher terrain west of the Hudson,
and mid to upper 70s or even a few 80 degree readings elsewhere
along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, temperatures will remain
mild overnight, falling to lows in the upper 40s to low 50s in
western New England, and low to mid 50s across eastern New York.
Beneath clearing skies, efficient radiative cooling may yield
areas of valley fog and mist overnight. Continued stratus cloud
coverage over eastern New England may reach west into the
Greens, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills, thereby reducing the
chances for fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper ridging in place over much of the country east of
the Rockies will see temperatures continue to trend hotter,
coming within a few degrees of daily records on Tuesday (see
Climate section below for details on record values). Southerly
to southwesterly low-level flow and 850-hPa temperatures rising
to 10-15C on Monday will see highs at the surface reach the mid
to upper 70s in high terrain, and low to mid 80s at lower
elevations. Dry weather is expected beneath mostly sunny skies
with scattered fair weather clouds. Mild temperatures continue
Monday night, with overnight lows in the 50s across the region.

On Tuesday, with nearly zonal flow aloft atop the upper ridge, a
potent upper shortwave and associated surface low will track to
the north of the region across Ontario and Quebec. While 850-hPa
temperatures reach 14-18C overhead, highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s in high terrain, and mid 80s to around 90 at lower
elevations are expected, while surface dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s may make it feel a bit muggy. With the shortwave passing
to the north and a relatively hot and humid airmass in place,
scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms may reach into the
southern Adirondacks, as well as the Mohawk and Upper Hudson
Valleys. Any storms will dissipate through the evening following
the loss of diurnal heating, leaving a mild and muggy night as
temperatures only fall to lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging over our region Wednesday as upper energy and an
associated cold front will approach our region. A pre frontal low
level trough may be a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon in the western Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks. Highs Wednesday in the 80s to around 90 with heat
indices similar to the actual temperatures because the relative
humidity is not expected to be extreme.

There are still some uncertainties about the timing and track of the
upper energy just north of the U.S./Canada border and the associated
cold front as it tracks east. The general consensus is for the
leading low level thermal gradient and moisture gradient along the
cold front to track through much of our region late Wednesday night
and Thursday morning. Then the final push of the cold front settles
east and south, through the Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, mid
Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires Thursday afternoon.

Instability ahead of the low level cold front is expected to be
considerable, with a potential elevated mixed layer and steep
midlevel lapse rates. The deep shear will also be considerable.
However, there are signals that the best instability and shear do
not overlap, with the best shear along and north of the U.S./Canada
border, and best instability over the southern half of NY and New
England.

So, some components for severe weather will be present but if they
do not overlap, and if the timing is at night or morning, when
instability is the least, then less chances for severe weather.
There is still time to watch this for severe potential. Still,
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday
as the cold front tracks through. Highs Thursday in the lower to mid
80s with 70s higher terrain.

Drying and clearing Friday with highs in the 70s, and some 60s
higher elevations. Remaining dry Saturday with highs in the mid to
upper 70s and around 70 higher elevations.

Lots of uncertainty in the timing and track of other upper energy
approaching our region toward Sunday. So, indicating just general
intervals of clouds and sun with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper 70s and around 70
higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through at least 06 UTC at all
terminals. Then radiational cooling will support patchy fog
formation, mainly at GFL and PSF with potential for some fog at
POU. Included a TEMPO group for GFL and PSF for 08 - 11 UTC for
IFR vis due to fog and included potential for IFR cigs for PSF
during this window. Also include TEMPO for POU for MVFR vis from
fog but not as confident in IFR conditions. Hinted at potential
for MVFR cigs but only show SCT due to low confidence. ALB
should remain VFR given light breeze that should be maintained
overnight.

Southeasterly winds tonight remains around 5kts at ALB but winds
turn light and variable at PSF, GFL and POU. If enough of a breeze
continues at POU, fog will struggle to form. Light and variable
winds continue the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962
Glens Falls: 90 in 1975
Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Speciale
CLIMATE...Speciale